Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

BryanMartin21

Patsy167 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rents-grew-at-slowest-rate-in-almost-eight-years-in-last-quarter-1.4442735?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Frents-grew-at-slowest-rate-in-almost-eight-years-in-last-quarter-1.4442735

Rents grew at slowest rate in almost eight years in last quarter
Average rents up by 1.4%, or €17 per month, according to Residential Tenancies Board

It showed the average rent during the period rose to €1,256, as compared with €1,239 in the same period a year earlier.

The county with the highest standardised average rent in the quarter was Dublin (€1,758 per month), while the county with the lowest monthly rents was Leitrim (€600 per month).

It is despicable reporting to describe increasing rents as "growth". Completely unacceptable that rents are at the levels they are at but to report with words that indicate that further growth is not a bad thing takes the biscuit.

JimmyVik

BryanMartin21 wrote: »

It is despicable reporting to describe increasing rents as "growth". Completely unacceptable that rents are at the levels they are at but to report with words that indicate that further growth is not a bad thing takes the biscuit.

How else would you describe growth if you didnt use the word growth?

BryanMartin21

JimmyVik wrote: »

How else would you describe growth if you didnt use the word growth?

Cost of renting continues to soar would be another way to phrase it. A more neutral way would just be to describe it as the cost of renting continues to rise.

Growth is generally seen as a positive thing but it is absolutely devastating to see it in the Irish rental market.

Ozark707

Patsy167 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rents-grew-at-slowest-rate-in-almost-eight-years-in-last-quarter-1.4442735?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Frents-grew-at-slowest-rate-in-almost-eight-years-in-last-quarter-1.4442735

Rents grew at slowest rate in almost eight years in last quarter
Average rents up by 1.4%, or €17 per month, according to Residential Tenancies Board

It showed the average rent during the period rose to €1,256, as compared with €1,239 in the same period a year earlier.

The county with the highest standardised average rent in the quarter was Dublin (€1,758 per month), while the county with the lowest monthly rents was Leitrim (€600 per month).

This is behind a paywall for me but did it give a breakdown in YoY figures for Dublin?

JimmyVik

BryanMartin21 wrote: »

Cost of renting continues to soar would be another way to phrase it. A more neutral way would just be to describe it as the cost of renting continues to rise.

Growth is generally seen a s a positive thing but it is absolutely devastating to see it in the Irish rental market.

I think you are splitting hairs
Growth is a perfectly apt description of the process.

spaceHopper

Because of the pandemic a lot of renters don't want to share, and working out of your bedroom or couples both working out of a 1 bed apartment is causing people to look for places on their own or couples to look for a two bed to use one room as an office or just to have more space. I can't see a crash in rents.

JimmyVik

spaceHopper wrote: »

Because of the pandemic a lot of renters don't want to share, and working out of your bedroom or couples both working out of a 1 bed apartment is causing people to look for places on their own or couples to look for a two bed to use one room as an office or just to have more space. I can't see a crash in rents.

Thats made me think of a couple i know who live in a 2 bed apartment. They separated at the start of the lockdown and were stuck together for months.
The messages on whatsapp were hilarious.

Manion

BryanMartin21 wrote: »

Cost of renting continues to soar would be another way to phrase it. A more neutral way would just be to describe it as the cost of renting continues to rise.

Growth is generally seen a s a positive thing but it is absolutely devastating to see it in the Irish rental market.

But it's not soaring. That term means "increasing rapidly above the usual level." which rents are not. The article seemed to have been just the facts, and what you're looking for is a specific editorial slant.

BryanMartin21

Manion wrote: »

But it's not soaring. That term means "increasing rapidly above the usual level." which rents are not. The article seemed to have been just the facts, and what you're looking for is a specific editorial slant.

If you look at the price of rents from 5 years ago (not even 7 years ago) they have increased rapidly above the increase in salaries in the period. Supply has not followed suit which means it is not a case of newer and better apartments being available which justifies the price increase, the increase is a bubble based on State meddling and lack of supply versus demand increase.

Hubertj

BryanMartin21 wrote: »

If you look at the price of rents from 5 years ago (not even 7 years ago) they have increased rapidly above the increase in salaries in the period. Supply has not followed suit which means it is not a case of newer and better apartments being available which justifies the price increase, the increase is a bubble based on State meddling and lack of supply versus demand increase.

You can add NIMBYs to that. It seems so many proposed developments are objected to. For a number of years a lot of construction resources were also working on commercial. Someone posted stats recently there are now as many construction workers as there were in 2006. Difference has been the amount of offices that were under construction.

dotsman

BryanMartin21 wrote: »

Cost of renting continues to soar would be another way to phrase it. A more neutral way would just be to describe it as the cost of renting continues to rise.

Growth is generally seen as a positive thing but it is absolutely devastating to see it in the Irish rental market.

"Gardai concerned about growth in crime"
"Parents worried about the growth in drug-usage amongst children"
"Intelligent humans terrified by the growth in online stupidity"
Doctor to patient: "we found a growth"

"Positive"?

I have no idea why you consider growth to be a "positive only" term. Growth/Shrink are commonly used to describe a figure getting bigger/smaller. whether it is positive/negative depends on the what figure is being described and your perspective on it.

BryanMartin21

dotsman wrote: »

"Gardai concerned about growth in crime"
"Parents worried about the growth in drug-usage amongst children"
"Intelligent humans terrified by the growth in online stupidity"
Doctor to patient: "we found a growth"

"Positive"?

I have no idea why you consider growth to be a "positive only" term. Growth/Shrink are commonly used to describe a figure getting bigger/smaller. whether it is positive/negative depends on the what figure is being described and your perspective on it.

Economic growth?

In what other asset class and its value do we speak of growth as a negative aspect?

You seem to be trying to build a wall in order to block out how the price increases are being described. Would you describe the continued rental increases as a good or bad thing? That might explain it.

sk8board

brisan wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/investigations-unit/2020/1221/1185810-rented-property-inspections-legal-action-councils-housing-standards/

As a full time landlord, there’s a very big point missing from this article - the reason why the houses failed.
I have four high-quality semi-d’s rented and all four failed for just one reason - it turns out that every window in the house is required to have a child proof restrictor, upstairs AND downstairs - and the restrictors also need to have a manual release rather than a key.

no-one has these, so sure enough the failure rates will be as high as they say in the article.

Yes there are sh*thole places that fail for reasons of food preparation/storage etc, but I think the article could list the reasons for the failures rather than project 99% of rentals in Galway for example as having failed

1123heavy

Can someone let me know when the "significant reduction in rents coming" happens??

meijin

sk8board wrote: »

it turns out that every window in the house is required to have a child proof restrictor, upstairs AND downstairs - and the restrictors also need to have a manual release rather than a key.

no-one has these, so sure enough the failure rates will be as high as they say in the article.

wow, so expensive https://www.upvc-hardware.co.uk/restrictors-security/restrictors (just one of the random shops from google)

some people have them (actually I have something very similar to the first one)

obviously, there is a reason for these requirements I guess
- you don't want a child to fall out
- you don't want to look for a key in case of fire

Sunny Disposition

The tests are a joke, planning permission given and then new bizarre requirements thrown in a few years later for landlords. The window protectors is one thing for sure. Am required to get a new examination from an electrician and then provide a cert. No indication anything is wrong, but you still fail. Pure unadulterated civil service bolloxology, no wonder we have a housing crisis.
It’s also no wonder people don’t register their properties, all you get is hassle and bills, staying in the black market is much simpler.

JimmyVik

BryanMartin21 wrote: »

If you look at the price of rents from 5 years ago (not even 7 years ago) they have increased rapidly above the increase in salaries in the period. Supply has not followed suit which means it is not a case of newer and better apartments being available which justifies the price increase, the increase is a bubble based on State meddling and lack of supply versus demand increase.

Rents were on the floor for a long time before that. Below floor level actually. The world didnt just start spinning when rents started rising.



From 2009 to 2016 my family and my brothers family rented a cottage in Connemara for €350PM.
We used it as a holiday home. Imagine that. A holiday home in the west for 7 years for €30,000 (€15,000 per family) including all maintenance and services. We only had to pay for electricity.



We wouldnt get that now, because rents would be more normal now.

BryanMartin21

JimmyVik wrote: »

Rents were on the floor for a long time before that. Below floor level actually. The world didnt just start spinning when rents started rising.



From 2009 to 2016 my family and my brothers family rented a cottage in Connemara for €350PM.
We used it as a holiday home. Imagine that. A holiday home in the west for 7 years for €30,000 (€15,000 per family) including all maintenance and services. We only had to pay for electricity.



We wouldn't get that now, because rents would be more normal now.

How can they be more normal when 1/3 of tenants get government assistance with their rent? When it costs a lot more to rent than to pay back a mortgage?

And, more importantly, how the increase in rents has not been matched with similar increases in salaries for people (considering those renting are most likely to be salaried employees)?

Dav010

BryanMartin21 wrote: »

How can they be more normal when 1/3 of tenants get government assistance with their rent? When it costs a lot more to rent than to pay back a mortgage?

And, more importantly, how the increase in rents has not been matched with similar increases in salaries for people (considering those renting are most likely to be salaried employees)?

Supply and demand. As another poster pointed out, it wasn’t that long ago when there was loads of supply and rents were much lower, no one complained that rents should be kept high when demand was low. Incidentally, rates of government assistance are a contributing factor to high rents. I do appreciate that saving is difficult when renting, but the reality is many people who rent could not afford to buy a house by themselves where they rent.

Manion

BryanMartin21 wrote: »

If you look at the price of rents from 5 years ago (not even 7 years ago) they have increased rapidly above the increase in salaries in the period. Supply has not followed suit which means it is not a case of newer and better apartments being available which justifies the price increase, the increase is a bubble based on State meddling and lack of supply versus demand increase.

But the article wasn't about what has happened over the last 7 years? It was about what has happened over the last year and more recently. Are you saying articles should not be published about what happened in the last year without making reference to what happened over the last 7 years? It doesn't especially relevant.

LuasSimon

How do people who in many cases earning minimum wage or close to it rent in Dublin?
Is it a case of 3 or 4 to a room and sleeping on floors ?

agoodpunt

same in every big city sub letting by slumlords owners and tenants through social media many young foreign some are transient most dont mind world experience, think most of us would have done it when we where younger when there was no such think as de housing crisis or it was never so discribed

Timing belt

Dav010 wrote: »

Supply and demand. As another poster pointed out, it wasn’t that long ago when there was loads of supply and rents were much lower, no one complained that rents should be kept high when demand was low. Incidentally, rates of government assistance are a contributing factor to high rents. I do appreciate that saving is difficult when renting, but the reality is many people who rent could not afford to buy a house by themselves where they rent.

It is not just the government assistance via HAP that is a contributing to high rents they are also contributing to it by driving up property prices with the purchase of properties instead of building more and on there policies to encourage institutional investors to enter the market. The institutional investors will squeeze out the last bit of profit they can and will keep rents high.

As you say it is supply and demand and yet the government are doing nothing meaningful to address supply.

Ozark707

Timing belt wrote: »

The institutional investors will squeeze out the last bit of profit they can and will keep rents high.

These institutional investors seem happy at times to site on a huge amount of empties (c.f Capital Dock). If these were brought onto the market you might see a change but I wouldn't be holding my breath on that.

Timing belt

Ozark707 wrote: »

These institutional investors seem happy at times to site on a huge amount of empties (c.f Capital Dock). If these were brought onto the market you might see a change but I wouldn't be holding my breath on that.

If they lowered rents to fill them then they would loose out big time as they would be restricted with future rent increases because of the Rent Pressure Zones. Better off to leave them empty and rent them at a higher rent once covid is gone.

Smouse156

Timing belt wrote: »

If they lowered rents to fill them then they would loose out big time as they would be restricted with future rent increases because of the Rent Pressure Zones. Better off to leave them empty and rent them at a higher rent once covid is gone.

They couldn’t rent them pre-covid so will likely wait years to get what they were looking for pre-covid. However, they have reduced rents (Capital Dock 2-beds down to €2970 from €3500h and quayside quarter are down to €2550.

I suppose the investors weren’t happy with seeing a return of zero

Ozark707

Timing belt wrote: »

If they lowered rents to fill them then they would loose out big time as they would be restricted with future rent increases because of the Rent Pressure Zones. Better off to leave them empty and rent them at a higher rent once covid is gone.

They have been empty in places since well before Covid. They have deep pockets to carry this.

Ozark707

Smouse156 wrote: »

They couldn’t rent them pre-covid so will likely wait years to get what they were looking for pre-covid. However, they have reduced rents (Capital Dock 2-beds down to €2970 from €3500h and quayside quarter are down to €2550.

I suppose the investors weren’t happy with seeing a return of zero

And still not being able to let at 2970 (not surprising IMO).

PommieBast

Smouse156 wrote: »

I suppose the investors weren’t happy with seeing a return of zero

For valuation purposes all that matters is the average rent and not the occupancy rate. Cashflow can be fiddled.

Ozark707

PommieBast wrote: »

For valuation purposes all that matters is the average rent and not the occupancy rate. Cashflow can be fiddled.

Surely someone who would be interested in buying blocks would check out occupancy levels as part of their due diligence.