Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

What Username Guidelines · 26-11-2020 12:47PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

This whole lockdown has been predicated on having a somewhat normal Christmas

The government knew that people were going to travel home come hell or high water anyway so they would need to give 'permission' as people would do it anyway

Travel home, do so in a safe manner and adhere to social distance, practice good hygiene, minimise your contacts is a different message to travel will be discouraged

It's a load of BS and stinks of face saving from the government and is talking out of both sides of their mouths

They need a new message because 'stay home to save lives' was wearing thin with an increasing minority of people, so the next carrot was a normal Christmas. Of course people will travel, but they need those who do travel to still attempt to remain safe. Tony will likely say in January it was people mingling over christmas if and when we see another wave... but what do you want them to say/blame?

Not you directly, but it is worrying how many people have the attitude of "I'll take a couple of weeks of normality at Xmas and then hunker down in January for another lockdown, sure we all stay in in January anyway" without even slightly considering that the virus itself, not the lockdown, might effect them or their loved ones over those two weeks of normality

What Username Guidelines · 26-11-2020 12:55PM

Also, was speaking to an ICU nurse the other day who and he mentioned that an Irish nurse came back from the UK in April to join the HSE. They said that things got so busy over there, what would usually be 1:1 ICU nursing care became 5:1 due to being so stretched. This required heavy sedation for all patients, prolonging recovery time, and diminishing survival odds. Whereas here in Ireland most ICUs managed to maintain 1:1 nursing throughout, and therefore lighter sedation, shorter post-ICU recovery, and increased odds of survival.

I know we've had a higher % of success in ICU than lots of other countries in europe, but it's interesting to consider when talking about 'overwhelming' the health service. There is normal operation, which we seem to have maintained, then stretched/surge capacity, and then it gets to triage. So judging our success by saying we never got to triage isn't the entire picture.

polesheep · 26-11-2020 01:12PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Also, was speaking to an ICU nurse the other day who and he mentioned that an Irish nurse came back from the UK in April to join the HSE. They said that things got so busy over there, what would usually be 1:1 ICU nursing care became 5:1 due to being so stretched. This required heavy sedation for all patients, prolonging recovery time, and diminishing survival odds. Whereas here in Ireland most ICUs managed to maintain 1:1 nursing throughout, and therefore lighter sedation, shorter post-ICU recovery, and increased odds of survival.

I know we've had a higher % of success in ICU than lots of other countries in europe, but it's interesting to consider when talking about 'overwhelming' the health service. There is normal operation, which we seem to have maintained, then stretched/surge capacity, and then it gets to triage. So judging our success by saying we never got to triage isn't the entire picture.

I'm sorry but I would have to see evidence for this. The ICU would very quickly cease to function with that ratio. We are all given to exaggeration at times.

KrustyUCC · 26-11-2020 01:14PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

They need a new message because 'stay home to save lives' was wearing thin with an increasing minority of people, so the next carrot was a normal Christmas. Of course people will travel, but they need those who do travel to still attempt to remain safe. Tony will likely say in January it was people mingling over christmas if and when we see another wave... but what do you want them to say/blame?

Not you directly, but it is worrying how many people have the attitude of "I'll take a couple of weeks of normality at Xmas and then hunker down in January for another lockdown, sure we all stay in in January anyway" without even slightly considering that the virus itself, not the lockdown, might effect them or their loved ones over those two weeks of normality

Yes Christmas was the carrot they used

I have no issue with saying travel but be safe and keep repeating that

That's what I'm planning anyway

They're already setting us up for another lockdown and NPHET were threatening one even before level 5 kicked in this time

Funny enough that threat whilst realistic will be used by many to have an 'even' better Christmas

Sure the virus might effect them or their loved ones I thoroughly agree

I don't think people have the same fear of the virus as they did in March and also there is light at the end of the tunnel with vaccines waiting to come on stream

Deeper Blue · 26-11-2020 01:18PM

giveitholly wrote: »

Will Rte report this I wonder? They are fast to report when numbers increase

They don't have time to report positive stories like that

They're too busy reporting on South Korea's "biggest covid spike since March" - a whopping 583 new cases in a population of 51 million.

Peter Flynt · 26-11-2020 01:20PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Sure they are. You were quite happy to cite the data until it was pointed out the data didn't tell the story you thought it did. Well then obviously the data is false.

Or possibly things aren't exactly as you think they are

No.

I was merely pointing out that even the false figures show outbreaks in schools to be high.

You've no knowledge of what is going on in schools.

What else do you not believe?
The Moon Landings?
9-11 was an inside job?

Because, quite frankly, placing 1 million people into buildings with no social distancing is not causing any problems according to you and your like.

Your virus is a sort of nice Santa Claus virus which is not caught or spread among children in schools.

Shame the research carried out among professionals across the world disagrees with you.

hmmm · 26-11-2020 01:23PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

They're already setting us up for another lockdown and NPHET were threatening one even before level 5 kicked in this time

Funny enough that threat whilst realistic will be used by many to have an 'even' better Christmas

The messaging is dubious. If you look at other countries, there's an emphasis on caution over Christmas. The experience in Canada at Thanksgiving which seem to have caused a huge spike in cases is sobering US commentators.

In Ireland the message is (unintentionally or not) a month of "freedom" followed by a lockdown. That's going to be a disaster, I personally don't want to have to spend another 2 months in lockdown because some people were under the impression they were being told to pack as many meetings with friends and parties into December as possible. It can't just be NPHET expressing concern, politicians should be doing more than asking for all the pubs to reopen.

Deeper Blue · 26-11-2020 01:24PM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

No.

I was merely pointing out that even the false figures show outbreaks in schools to be high.

You've no knowledge of what is going on in schools.

What else do you not believe?
The Moon Landings?
9-11 was an inside job?

Because, quite frankly, placing 1 million people into buildings with no social distancing is not causing any problems according to you and your like.

Cases have dropped steadily despite schools being open for ages now. They're clearly not the issue, just accept it and move on

petes · 26-11-2020 01:25PM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

No.

I was merely pointing out that even the false figures show outbreaks in schools to be high.

You've no knowledge of what is going on in schools.

What else do you not believe?
The Moon Landings?
9-11 was an inside job?

Because, quite frankly, placing 1 million people into buildings with no social distancing is not causing any problems according to you and your like.

Your virus is a sort of nice Santa Claus virus which is not caught or spread among children in schools.

The irony here :pac: You posting saying the numbers are false in relation to school numbers with no backup whatsoever and then accusing someone else of being a conspiracy theorist

The HorsesMouth · 26-11-2020 01:26PM

Anyone working in a hospital or who know the yearly figures let us know how flu season is going? Really interested to see if the restrictions are making a difference and how much of a difference?

Peter Flynt · 26-11-2020 01:27PM

petes wrote: »

The irony here :pac: You posting saying the numbers are false in relation to school numbers with no backup whatsoever and then accusing someone else of being a conspiracy theorist

I work in education. I know many teachers. I know many principals/DPs.
And I've also read and listened to experts and noted what has occurred in countries across the world.

But experts carry no truck or weight with some boards.ie posters - no surprise there.

That's the very nature of social media.

Opinions are like a-holes - everyone has one.

seamus · 26-11-2020 01:33PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

The statement that the only age group at virtually or actually no risk are children under 12 is not true. The last two paragraphs are statistically not true.

Nobody is at "no risk". But children under 12 are not considered to be at a heightened risk, compared to other standard infections flying around.

This chart is considered the gold standard in terms of comparitive IFRs:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjRbrU1XkAMm5i1?format=jpg&name=medium

The scale is logarithmic. At age 20 the IFR is about twice that of the 'flu, 2.9 times at age 30, 5 times at age 40, etc.

One can argue that an IFR of 0.02 for a 30 year old or 0.07 for a 40 year old isn't "significant", but it is a considerably heightened risk for those age groups given the infectivity of Covid.

Nevertheless, the real fun begins at 50 where 2 in every 1,000 infections will result in death, and it just gets worse from there.

So the assertion that only really old people are at risk, just doesn't hold up.

KrustyUCC · 26-11-2020 01:34PM

hmmm wrote: »

The messaging is dubious. If you look at other countries, there's an emphasis on caution over Christmas. The experience in Canada at Thanksgiving which seem to have caused a huge spike in cases is sobering US commentators.

In Ireland the message is (unintentionally or not) a month of "freedom" followed by a lockdown. That's going to be a disaster, I personally don't want to have to spend another 2 months in lockdown because some people were under the impression they were being told to pack as many meetings with friends and parties into December as possible. It can't just be NPHET expressing concern, politicians should be doing more than asking for all the pubs to reopen.

That's fair but after up to two weeks level three, six weeks level five, followed by another 2 weeks level three if the leaks are to be believed people are getting sick of restrictions

They want a release

I think people have accepted a January/February lockdown as inevitable

It was threatened by NPHET before we entered level 5 and is now been threatened by Leo even before we leave this level 5

That messaging is going to backfire as people will be determined to get as much out of December as possible

That's also where the open the pubs message is coming from

Pubs usually need December to survive anyway not to mind if they are going to be shut in January or February

fleet_admiral · 26-11-2020 01:36PM

ElJeffe wrote: »

Disappointing to hear and read the pubs will open again this side of Xmas. Going to a super spreader event all over the Xmas and New Year as Irish people have an awful problem with drink and self control. You have to feel sorry for doctors and nurses who will have to deal with the consequences come mid January onward and the inevitable closing of businesses yet again.

I'm not disappointed, it means I can earn a living again, as can thousands like me. I've begun contacting all my staff already

What I've heard this morning is that pubs serving food will be open early next week with 'wet' to follow next Friday (tomorrow week). I could be wrong and it could change but that came from the top

KrustyUCC · 26-11-2020 01:42PM

fleet_admiral wrote: »

I'm not disappointed, it means I can earn a living again, as can thousands like me. I've begun contacting all my staff already

What I've heard this morning is that pubs serving food will be open early next week with 'wet' to follow next Friday (tomorrow week). I could be wrong and it could change but that came from the top

Ooh that's interesting

26-11-2020 01:56PM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

I work in education. I know many teachers. I know many principals/DPs.
And I've also read and listened to experts and noted what has occurred in countries across the world.

But experts carry no truck or weight with some boards.ie posters - no surprise there.

That's the very nature of social media.

Opinions are like a-holes - everyone has one.

You see, increasingly the expert view is schools are not hotspots. Dont just read the linked article. There are numerous studies linked

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02973-3

speckle · 26-11-2020 01:58PM

Only 25 days to mid Winter Solstice... then the days get longer again. The count down begins..

podgeandrodge · 26-11-2020 02:00PM

fleet_admiral wrote: »

I'm not disappointed, it means I can earn a living again, as can thousands like me. I've begun contacting all my staff already

What I've heard this morning is that pubs serving food will be open early next week with 'wet' to follow next Friday (tomorrow week). I could be wrong and it could change but that came from the top

Some sanity being restored so hopefully!

FinglasFollain · 26-11-2020 02:01PM

IT reporting NPHET strongly against reopening of society at end of lockdown. Quelle surprise..

On second glance - parts. ITs push notification first said society. Then corrected to parts.

26-11-2020 02:04PM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

No.

I was merely pointing out that even the false figures show outbreaks in schools to be high.

You've no knowledge of what is going on in schools.

What else do you not believe?
The Moon Landings?
9-11 was an inside job?

Because, quite frankly, placing 1 million people into buildings with no social distancing is not causing any problems according to you and your like.

Your virus is a sort of nice Santa Claus virus which is not caught or spread among children in schools.

Shame the research carried out among professionals across the world disagrees with you.

The conspiracy theories are we are covering up schools cases or NPHET are massaging numbers to drive panic

seamus · 26-11-2020 02:05PM

FinglasFollain wrote: »

IT reporting NPHET strongly against reopening of society at end of lockdown. Quelle surprise..

Not quite - NPHET are apparently opposed to "parts" of the plan;
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/nphet-signals-strong-opposition-to-parts-of-government-plan-to-exit-lockdown-1.4420274

If I had to guess, NPHET's major issues will be in hospitality and home mixing. Their preference would probably be outside dining only, no pubs, and no more than one household to visit another.

None of which are realistic asks over Xmas. People will visit eachother for eating and drinking. So better to provide controlled ways of doing it than forcing people to resort to uncontrolled ones.

stephenjmcd · 26-11-2020 02:08PM

FinglasFollain wrote: »

IT reporting NPHET strongly against reopening of society at end of lockdown. Quelle surprise..

What a surprise.......

The plan has been well and truly leaked. Their letter will have little influence one would think

KrustyUCC · 26-11-2020 02:15PM

seamus wrote: »

Not quite - NPHET are apparently opposed to "parts" of the plan;
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/nphet-signals-strong-opposition-to-parts-of-government-plan-to-exit-lockdown-1.4420274

If I had to guess, NPHET's major issues will be in hospitality and home mixing. Their preference would probably be outside dining only, no pubs, and no more than one household to visit another.

None of which are realistic asks over Xmas. People will visit eachother for eating and drinking. So better to provide controlled ways of doing it than forcing people to resort to uncontrolled ones.

Wouldn't expect anything less from NPHET

It was always going to be that way

Very unrealistic advice is right especially when NPHET know it's going to be rejected anyway

Eod100 · 26-11-2020 02:18PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

What a surprise.......

The plan has been well and truly leaked. Their letter will have little influence one would think

Probably not when the government had made their plan before even waiting for NPHET's recommendations.

26-11-2020 02:21PM

Its completely ridiculous that seemingly everything is getting leaked in advance. From NPHET, from Government, they're all at it and its pathetic.

eagle eye · 26-11-2020 02:26PM

Deleted User wrote:

You see, increasingly the expert view is schools are not hotspots. Dont just read the linked article. There are numerous studies linked

I posted a report of a study carried out by Princeton Environmental Institute, Johns Hopkins University and the University of California.
It stated that children and young adults were found to be potentially much more important to transmitting the virus, especially within households, than previous studies have identified.

Have you read that report? Do you have reasons to say it's flawed?

seamus · 26-11-2020 02:33PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Wouldn't expect anything less from NPHET

It was always going to be that way

Very unrealistic advice is right especially when NPHET know it's going to be rejected anyway

Only thing is, there's a man above claiming to have gotten word that pubs will be allowed open on Friday 4th, and I have no reason to believe he's bullsh1tting.

So *if* that's the case, then obviously NPHET is going to advise against it.

26-11-2020 02:34PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I posted a report of a study carried out by Princeton Environmental Institute, Johns Hopkins University and the University of California.
It stated that children and young adults were found to be potentially much more important to transmitting the virus, especially within households, than previous studies have identified.

Have you read that report? Do you have reasons to say it's flawed?

Have you reason to suggest the papers linked in the article I posted are flawed?

The data on schools is moving the debate significantly , and I quote from Nature article on this, so not my words lest I be accused of spreading conspiracy

Schools and childcare centres seem to provide an ideal setting for coronavirus transmission because large groups gather indoors for extended periods of time, says Walter Haas, an infectious-diseases epidemiologist at the Robert Koch Institute in Berlin. Yet, globally, COVID-19 infections are still much lower among children than among adults, he says. “They seem rather to follow the situation than to drive it.”

But even in places where community infections were on the rise, outbreaks in schools were uncommon, particularly when precautions were taken to reduce transmission. More than 65,000 schools in Italy reopened in September, as case numbers were climbing in the community. But only 1,212 campuses had experienced outbreaks four weeks later1. In 93% of cases, only one infection was reported, and only one high school had a cluster of more than 10 infected people

Repost your link if you don't mind, as I am not sure if I have read that particular article, as I have read much presenting many varying views

Eod100 · 26-11-2020 02:35PM

Assumed from all the coverage it would be tomorrow it would be announced:

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1331947615760617472

Turtwig · 26-11-2020 02:36PM

No problem with retail and many services sectors restrictions being relaxed. Hairdressers and the like should open. Have a serious concern over indoor dining and pubs. Outdoors maybe but indoors no. People were going to gather in their houses anyway. The indoor venues being open leads to huge potential for super spreader events as households gatherings that wouldn't be mixed will now be far more likely to be mixed in the public venues. Only takes a few individuals to spread it to dozens.

This is going to cause far more economic pain in the long term. Nevermind, what the status of our health care will be.

If a vaccine was five years off I could understand this more. But, in all likelihood it's much closer. Could we not have a sort of national holiday or commeration then?

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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