Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

wadacrack · 25-11-2020 04:41PM

Would be useful to know what the RO was estimated to be with level 3 in Dublin. Have not seen it mentioned. Presume the aim is to keep it below 1 for the next number of weeks

Benimar · 25-11-2020 04:46PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Just thinking here after seeing the number. Wasn't there a poster(could have been yourself) who noticed either last week or the week before that for a period of a few weeks on a Wednesday there seemed to be an increase each Wednesday then a decrease again the next day. As in when looking at the charts you could clearly see a weekly spike which came on Wednesdays.

Last 4 weeks:
28 Oct Wednesday lower than Thursday by 125
4 Nov Wednesday higher by 167
11 Nov Wednesday lower by 2
18 Nov Wednesday higher by 59

Hard to know if that proves anything one way or the other tbh!

Wednesday is always higher than Tuesday in fairness, but Wednesday, Thursday and Friday tend to be higher than Monday/Tuesday over the last few weeks.

seamus · 25-11-2020 04:47PM

niallo27 wrote: »

I think you will find it was months before any rises occured.

I think you'll find cases started detectably rising 14-21 days after restaurants reopened.

It's right there in the data, but I also remember it distinctly because someone on Twitter was sounding the alarm that the 14-day average had crept over 20 cases/day and that was a nearly 100% rise in 2 weeks or so. I just handwaved it away as an acceptable rise, but they were dead right in retrospect.

fleet_admiral · 25-11-2020 04:53PM

pauldry wrote: »

Re Pubs v Restaurants EVERY pub I go into at Christmas is choc-a-bloc and will be this year again if allowed.

In a restaurant you sit eat and leave happy

In a pub you stand get shoved and the barman is rude to you and are deafened by music

I wont be crying if pubs stay shut even though I love pints

I will, a pub is my livelihood and thousands of other people too

froog · 25-11-2020 04:54PM

MOR316 wrote: »

Ah Jesus Christ

Talk about two ends of the spectrum here. Absolutely ridiculous

None of that happened in any bar/pub between June and September, with the exception of the Berlin Bar craic and the lock-ins for those who won inter county finals. The latter would have happened regardless of any lockdown or restrictions and did!

You make out that it was a free for all from June 29th onwards which again shows that yourself and Seamus are the ones not getting it

how the hell do you know that?

froog · 25-11-2020 04:57PM

seamus wrote: »

12,411 swabs, 361 positive, 2.91%

7-day down to 2.72%

Compared to yesterday, it doesn't look stellar, but then you realise that 2.91% is still one of the lowest we've had in two months. And it's a Wednesday

not great, not terrible.

Allinall · 25-11-2020 04:57PM

froog wrote: »

how the hell do you know that?

Because they didn't get notifications on Whatsapp :rolleyes:

seamus · 25-11-2020 04:57PM

wadacrack wrote: »

One way of looking at it. But if we said at the start of this lockdown we would be looking at 250-350 cases daily most would accept that would be a disappointing number

I hate to say it this way because it sounds stupid, but when you test more, you find more.

With 10,000 tests a day, a 2% positivity rate still gives 200 cases. With 5,000 tests a day (like we were doing in June/July) it gives 100 cases.

So it's all relative. 100 cases/day by the end of this lockdown was never going to happen at the level of testing we're doing. Disappointing if we 're not knokcing on the door of 2% by this day next week, but we'd still doing OK at 250. Especially given the blip in the middle of the month.

We should get accustomed to 150-300 cases a day for the rest of this pandemic tbh. The days of 5 or even 40 cases a day are over.

KrustyUCC · 25-11-2020 05:13PM

seamus wrote: »

12,411 swabs, 361 positive, 2.91%

7-day down to 2.72%

Compared to yesterday, it doesn't look stellar, but then you realise that 2.91% is still one of the lowest we've had in two months. And it's a Wednesday

That's a pity but not too bad at the same time

High figures before NPHET meeting unfortunately

25-11-2020 05:13PM

seamus wrote: »

I think you'll find cases started detectably rising 14-21 days after restaurants reopened.

It's right there in the data, but I also remember it distinctly because someone on Twitter was sounding the alarm that the 14-day average had crept over 20 cases/day and that was a nearly 100% rise in 2 weeks or so. I just handwaved it away as an acceptable rise, but they were dead right in retrospect.

It was an acceptable rise in the absence of a Zero Covid strategy. What low numbers give you is time to react, which is how it has played out. I argued back in August that staying under 5,000 cases per week would prevent the system from bring overwhelmed. We went to nearly 8,000 in the highest week and still, just about, pulled it back from the brink of collapse in the healthcare system

pauldry · 25-11-2020 05:18PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That's a pity but not too bad at the same time

High figures before NPHET meeting unfortunately

And Tony will tell us we are all being bold boys and girls before the Toy Show

KrustyUCC · 25-11-2020 05:36PM

No doubt

I can see NPHET pushing for an extension of level 5 no matter the case numbers

niallo27 · 25-11-2020 05:39PM

seamus wrote: »

I think you'll find cases started detectably rising 14-21 days after restaurants reopened.

It's right there in the data, but I also remember it distinctly because someone on Twitter was sounding the alarm that the 14-day average had crept over 20 cases/day and that was a nearly 100% rise in 2 weeks or so. I just handwaved it away as an acceptable rise, but they were dead right in retrospect.

On june 29th we had 29 cases on july 30th we had 38 cases, our 7 day average went from 11 cases to 17 cases.

Plumbthedepths · 25-11-2020 05:39PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

No doubt

I can see NPHET pushing for an extension of level 5 no matter the case numbers

They can push all they want, but Martin has already said level 3 on Tuesday. Plus many backbenchers in all parties have had enough of Tony and Co's attempts to dictate policy.

Treepole · 25-11-2020 05:39PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That's a pity but not too bad at the same time

High figures before NPHET meeting unfortunately

But they aren't high figures.

What is a high figure and what is a low figure?
You cannot leave a chunk of the economy open and expect to get to sub 100 cases a day.

What NPHET have never done is quantity what exactly is an acceptable level of cases. We are going to have cases, we need to accept that.
They've shifted the goalposts on what the key metrics were at every turn.

niallo27 · 25-11-2020 05:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It was an acceptable rise in the absence of a Zero Covid strategy. What low numbers give you is time to react, which is how it has played out. I argued back in August that staying under 5,000 cases per week would prevent the system from bring overwhelmed. We went to nearly 8,000 in the highest week and still, just about, pulled it back from the brink of collapse in the healthcare system

The brink of collapse, do you mean by collapse they way our hospitals are run every winter. We were no where near collapse, stop peddling that ****e.

Timmy O Toole · 25-11-2020 05:41PM

Hi guys. What do you make of this ? Really interesting read. I'm not so sure about these tests anymore with this plus the news from Portugal and Germany recently

https://twitter.com/robinmonotti/status/1331533068184788994?s=09

Loafing Oaf · 25-11-2020 05:42PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

No doubt

I can see NPHET pushing for an extension of level 5 no matter the case numbers

They won't be doing this publicly because they know it's not going to happen and they would lose face if they were publicly rebuffed. We might hear anonymous off-record briefings from 'senior NPHET figures' about what they would really like to do though

Russman · 25-11-2020 05:44PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

They can push all they want, but Martin has already said level 3 on Tuesday. Plus many backbenchers in all parties have had enough of Tony and Co's attempts to dictate policy.

I think the backbenchers are also torn over owning the consequences if it goes badly wrong. Well, probably the ministers more so than the backbenchers, but no politician likes his head on the block. Probably why they're getting EY to do some class of report.

manofwisdom · 25-11-2020 05:51PM

seamus wrote: »

12,411 swabs, 361 positive, 2.91%

7-day down to 2.72%

Compared to yesterday, it doesn't look stellar, but then you realise that 2.91% is still one of the lowest we've had in two months. And it's a Wednesday

No real surprise that 2,360 extra tests from yesterday would result in 171 extra positive swabs

podgeandrodge · 25-11-2020 05:52PM

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Hi guys. What do you make of this ? Really interesting read. I'm not so sure about these tests anymore with this plus the news from Portugal and Germany recently

https://twitter.com/robinmonotti/status/1331533068184788994?s=09

Do you want us all singularly to translate it or could you just post a translation alongside?!

Edit: see twitter is in English my bad

MOR316 · 25-11-2020 05:52PM

froog wrote: »

how the hell do you know that?

How the hell would you know otherwise?

MOR316 · 25-11-2020 05:54PM

Allinall wrote: »

Because they didn't get notifications on Whatsapp :rolleyes:

I never mentioned WhatsApp.

No clue why you're rolling your eyes for either but, guess you gotta do something with your time. Good for you

Timmy O Toole · 25-11-2020 05:54PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Do you want us all singularly to translate it or could you just post a translation alongside?!

Click on the thread, it's all translated, or actually go in to the links and you will get the option to translate it.

froog · 25-11-2020 05:55PM

MOR316 wrote: »

Likewise

How the hell would you know? You don't go out

so you have no idea what you're talking about.

podgeandrodge · 25-11-2020 05:57PM

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Click on the thread, it's all translated, or actually go in to the links and you will get the option to translate it.

Yep, I had edited my post to acknowledge thread was in English.

But in future I want full translations provided for me in your posts

MOR316 · 25-11-2020 05:59PM

froog wrote: »

so you have no idea what you're talking about.

Pal, I'm not insecure enough that I need to back up my arguments because some lad called "froog" is hysterical.

I know what I'm saying is right and you're just bored, looking for a reaction from me.

You ain't getting it so if it gives you comfort in "winning" this arguement, go for it.

seamus · 25-11-2020 06:08PM

niallo27 wrote: »

On june 29th we had 29 cases on july 30th we had 38 cases, our 7 day average went from 11 cases to 17 cases.

You might be looking at the wrong figures there (though 11 to 17 is still a 54% jump)

On 29th June we had 24 cases and our 14-day average was 12.

On 30th July we had 85 cases and our 14-day average was 24 - a 100% increase.

This is why the pubs were pushed back and back.

BringBackMick · 25-11-2020 06:08PM

Sam McConckey being given more air time

God help us

seamus · 25-11-2020 06:23PM

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Hi guys. What do you make of this ? Really interesting read. I'm not so sure about these tests anymore with this plus the news from Portugal and Germany recently

It's nonsense.

Scoglio is another snake oil salesman. He promotes a line of "natural living" food supplements and foodstuffs that he believes can cure cancers and sh1t like that.

He is no more a Nobel Prize candidate than I am. Hint: Nobel nominees are kept secret.

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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