Racing Uncertainties

8.30 Kempton Grey D'Ars 5/1 win

Running P & L -59.5pts

Invested today 7pts

Returns

7.25 Kempton Island Brave (e/w) done at 10/1 places at a fifth the odds returning 3pts

Today's loss 4pts

Running invested total 138 pts

Total P & L -63.5pts

I see Kerrera is well punted in the 7.30. Just an observation - didn't do her. Mare is at the basement mark of 45. J Quinn takes over from Sophie Ralston, who has ridden almost all of the horse's races since the stable change. Wouldn't be for me, and I think the money is in the hope that Jimmy can finish a few lengths closer tonight (in fairness 'distance wise' kerrera hasn't been beaten all that far in most of her nine most recent outings, since she last won over a shorter distance; with Ms Ralston on top). Wouldn't be a backer, or a layer. Not putting anyone off; I just think punters have latched onto the 'Jimmy factor' .

In other news thread ok today.

At last.. A winning day to reduce deficit

*Glitch on account Can't do P & L update:(

The one day I turn a ruddy profit

*Can't check re places/ rule fours etc :mad:

Might try pick some for Sat hopefully

6.30 Dundalk Bellick 12/1 win

Nice price. Should be there or thereabouts, if the 10lb claiming jockey Cillian McConnell can get a tune out of him. Trained by John; who's presumably his father, or uncle; one would imagine that he'll be at least trying today.

Spotted this one on another thread a few mins ago, and looks a good punting proposition. Nothing in "my rules" says I cannae do that :pac:

Gluck if any followers

Hello all Saturday posters, punters, and lurkers alike.

Have had a good look at Wolverhampton tomorrow evening, with a fair few picks.

But first - I only had a cursory glance at these 3 races, and some biggish priced fancies/ hopefuls I picked out.

2.20 Lingfield Verne Castle 9/1 e/w
Not a lot of horses in this, so not much looking required. This fellow will do here, albeit after over an eight month absence. A multiple distance winner at this grade or higher; if he's on song he should not be far away.

1.50 Haydock Fix Sun 16/1 e/w
Only looked at a couple in this, and the selection will do. Trained by the legendary Nicky Henderson, has good form on soft ground, lightly raced, and a big price. Can't ask for much more than that with about 10 mins study

2.25 Kalashnikov 22/1 e/w
One of my fav horses. Has promised a lot more than what he's delivered. Mainly a chaser, he takes his chance in a 3 miles hurdes' race. Topweight in a Handicap, and a big price - why not?


Now to Wolverhampton....
Have had an in-depth look at this meet, with a few selections in most of the races. If anyone wants a few to back win, or each way for 50c, or a Euro of a miserable Saturday eve; I hope if you're following that most can give us a run for our money

4.30 AMOR FATI 8/1 e/w
Won easily the last time he tackled C & D which was last month.
RECUERDAME 6/1 e/w
Another recent C & D winner - top jock Luke Morris on top.
LAKE SAND 18/1 e/w
Taking a 'punt' on this one - not a lot of form to go on.

*Also in this race, and not counted for stats, nor indeed am I doing it myself, but some might like to oppose the short-priced (2/1 currently best available) fav BEAU GESTE for 3 places, at the likely short odds. I'm not liking him.

5.00 RECTORY ROAD 14/1 e/w
Down in grade - R. Kingscote on top. Could be a player.
ZEYZOUN 66/1 e/w
Going on a 'hunch' - taking a punt on Alex Dunn's horse here - does have some form from last year, which would not make him a complete no-hoper.
HARLOW 2/1 e/w
Shorter than I thought he'd be. Will change that e/w to a win only

5.30 Anything could win this. Athmad and Convertible have lto winning form.
Anyway, my selections are:
ATHMAD 10/3 WIN
Won the last twice over C & D - nuff said.
CITYZEN SERG 7/2 e/w
Topweight in a handicap - should go close.
ZAFARANAH 16 e/w
One at a big price that's not out of it.

7.00 WURLITZER 7/1 e/w
Only his third run - can build on first two.
BOMB SQUAD 16/1 e/w
Probably place only possibilities. Anything better be a bonus.
GLESGA GIRL 9/2 e/w
Could be the classiest in the field, Hugo's filly. 1st time blinkers.

7.30 DANIELSFLYER 22/1 e/w
Bit of a punt, but at the price a case can be made for him.
CLINICIAN 3/1 e/w
A bit short for each way perhaps; but not too short, this Cheveley Park filly could be the best horse in the race.
DE VEGAS KID 14/1 e/w
Acquitted himself well the couple of times he ran over C & D.

8.00 NIBLAWI 10/3 e/w
Not beaten far in a 4 horse race here in September.
BATTLE OF MARATHON 9/1 e/w
Has a chance in this grade over the course and distance.
MANJAAM 11/1 e/w
Think with the low weight and the jockey's claim, this gelding might go from the front, and try to make all.

Also, just to note; I think the fav Amtiyaz has enough to prove. And while Glan Y Gors was a C & D winner in March, in a very fast time; I'm calling that a 'fluke' - a massive price though, but three picks is enough methinks.


Lastly
8.30 GLASVEGAS 12/1 e/w
Cos I saw him run last time, and I don't think the jockey was too hard on him.
LILKIAN 7/2 e/w
Twice a course winner over 6 and 7.
INEVITABLE OUTCOME 10/1 e/w
1st time cheekpieces, and trained by the shrewd D Loughnane.


A lot of selections, and I hope I turn a profit. Far too many for anything other than small win or each way bets for anyone considering backing. Just mainly for an interest, and to continue my 'experiment'. I'm backing almost all of them each way, and just a few win only.

Good luck to anyone following, and I hope we get a few shouts in tomorrow

That is all for now

No joy at the early meets unfortunately, but doing okay so far at Dunstall Park; with a few races to go

Sunday 22/11/2020

Had a quick look, and here are tomorrow's darts. All each way, and a couple at massive prices. Only small stakes recommended. Just to keep the experiment going - the 'can I make a profit to level stakes' one, that is. All to a single point for a win, and 2 for each way. These will give me a bit of an interest, and the two at massive prices are in 4plcs a fifth races. One of them hits the crossbar, and it covers the thread outlay.

I vary stakes myself, but that's nowt to do with the purpose of the thread.

On the offchance I really fancy 1; will give it a mention.

Exeter

1.33 Broadclyst 9/1
3.18 Comeragh Lad 50/1
3.53 Berboru 40/1

Uttoxeter

12.48 Scartare 8/1
2.28 Sirobbie 6/1


Gluck all

Up to and including 20th Nov

Before start of day: Running P & L -25.5pts

Invested 46pts

Returns

Lake Sand 4.30 Wolves done at 18/1 e/w a fifth places returning 4.6pts
Rectory Road 5.00 Wol done at 14/1 e/w a fifth places returning 3.8pts
Harlow 5.00 also done win at 2/1 wins @ 5/1 returning 6pts
Cityzen Serg 5.30 Wolves done each way a fifth the odds at 7/2 wins returning 6.2pts
Wurlitzer 7.00 Wolves done at 7/1 each way a fifth the odds places returning 2.4pts
Glesga Gal also done at 9/2 each way wins at 11/2 at a fifth the odds each way returns 8.6pts
Niblawi 8.00 Wolves done at 10/3 each way places at 10/1 with a fifth the odds each way returning 3pts
Manjaam also done at 11/1 each way places at 12/1 with a fifth the odds a place returning 3.4pts
Glasvegas 8.30 Wolves done at 12/1 each way places at 14/1 with a fifth the odds a place returning 3.8pts

Total at play 46pts - returns 41.8pts. Had anticipated a profit before I totted up - miscalculated

Yesterday's loss 4.2pts

Running invested total: 172pts

Total P & L -29.7pts

And Broadclyst comes 3rd in the 1.33. Was up with the pace throughout; and given his lack of fluency over a few of the obstacles he never looked the likely winner at any stage. Small profit on e/w there.

2.55 Navan Lord Erskine 14/1 e/w

Drifted out to a nice price. Soft ground and the distance - 22fs should suit.

Deleted User wrote: »

Another selection

2.20 Navan BRAHMA BULL 8/1 win - cos only 4; it's the only option of the two regardless :pac:

Gotta oppose the 1/6 jolly Minella Indo (1/6 'shortest' price, 2/9 best available currently) here. Only 4 go to post, and the thinking here is twofold - 1/6 yokes are "always" worth taking on; and, from looking at the form, both the fav and the selection like to frontrun, so the 1/6 might look vulnerable if he's pressurised.

Based on that, and not counted for stats, if anyone has the option to bet jolly Not To Win that would be worth a few shillings imo also.

Maybe a combo forecast w/o Minella Indo closer to the off depending on his price come 2.20 ish.. Gluck:)

Jolly far too good Worth a try tho.

3.03 Utt Lac Sacre 16/1 win

2nd last year. Big price. Will do for me.

Deleted User wrote: »

Sunday 22/11/2020

3.18 Comeragh Lad 50/1

Half a BOOOM!! Lands 4th place at 4plcs a fifth

The 50/1 was incorrect - 40s was taken. I amended it when I 'requoted' OP.

Happy days so far