Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

440Hertz · 17-11-2020 04:41PM

Seems rather likely based on that report. They're talking about potentially rolling it to 15 January or even early Feb.

They've also got a basic outline of the schedule for vaccine rollout in France. It will aim at vulnerable individuals for the first half of 2021, then moving onto vaccine for everyone who wants it from June onwards, with a specific statement that it will not be any kind of compulsory vaccination and will be a matter of people weighing it up themselves.

Given our scale of pop and demographics, it's possible we might get moving a bit more rapidly though that

iamwhoiam · 17-11-2020 04:42PM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Not to the extent in schools with 1+ million individuals

There aren’t a million children in one school either .
Manufacturing , shops , construction , funerals , parties , all play a part . Its not down to one sector as emphasised by the CMO

stephenjmcd · 17-11-2020 04:50PM

440Hertz wrote: »

Seems rather likely based on that report. They're talking about potentially rolling it to 15 January or even early Feb.

They've also got a basic outline of the schedule for vaccine rollout in France. It will aim at vulnerable individuals for the first half of 2021, then moving onto vaccine for everyone who wants it from June onwards, without a specific statement that it will not be any kind of compulsory vaccination and will be a matter of people weighing it up themselves.

Given our scale of pop and demographics, it's possible we might get moving a bit more rapidly though that

Fingers crossed based on population we should be quicker than that with anyone who wants it being available to them in Q2/3

Russman · 17-11-2020 04:52PM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

No.
The issue is that the government are not putting in place the resources, systems and legislation that will ensure it can be done, and then doing it.

Instead they are hoping to scare people into not travelling, blaming some people who were outdoors and putting themselves in a “I told you so” position in January.

This Virus has been here since March. The idea that by xmas the Irish Government and the EU have not go to grips with minimising the risks around travel to allow people travel home for Xmas goes goes to show that they are completely incompetent.

But then again what would they care, they all know they can travel home for Christmas.

I think you’re giving western governments too much credit. Just because something can’t be done doesn’t always mean they’re incompetent. Maybe they’ve consulted with their experts and evaluated what information they have and decided some things just aren’t feasible ? I’m not suggesting they’re infallible, far from it, but just because we all want safe travel doesn’t mean we can have it.

440Hertz · 17-11-2020 04:55PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Fingers crossed based on population we should be quicker than that with anyone who wants it being available to them in Q2/3

You'd hope so. The scale shouldn't make much of a difference, but we've far fewer older people than most of Europe due to our 1970s baby boom, so in general it should be quicker to get high % of them covered.

The French struggle will likely be with their huge anti vaxxer issues. We don't really have anything like the scale of the issue they do with it and not does the UK when you look at flu vaccine uptake in older groups it's much higher.

stephenjmcd · 17-11-2020 05:02PM

440Hertz wrote: »

You'd hope so. The scale shouldn't make much of a difference, but we've far fewer older people than most of Europe due to our 1970s baby boom, so in general it should be quicker to get high % of them covered.

The French struggle will likely be with their huge anti vaxxer issues. We don't really have anything like the scale of the issue they do with it and not does the UK when you look at flu vaccine uptake in older groups it's much higher.

When you look at the demand for flu vaccine here this year as well I don't think we've as big an issue with anti vax as might be thought

17-11-2020 05:07PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

All manufacturing and construction are fully open - lots of people in close quarters.

Canteen in my workplace has not been as busy as it is now since February. Its like the proportion of workers who had the option to choose to work onsite or from home are now choosing to go to work at least a few days as it gives them a reason to get out of the house

440Hertz · 17-11-2020 05:10PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

When you look at the demand for flu vaccine here this year as well I don't think we've as big an issue with anti vax as might be thought

A lot of it is internet bubbles and projecting patterns based on American scenarios. Also the most vulnerable groups tend to be the most pragmatic.

stephenjmcd · 17-11-2020 05:11PM

364 positive swabs from 9830 tests. 3.7% positivity

Benimar · 17-11-2020 05:11PM

364 positive swabs on 9,830 tests 3.7% positivity

seamus · 17-11-2020 05:12PM

Better numbers today

364 positive swabs from 9,830 tests. 3.7% positivity. 7-day rate is UP to 3.97% (will be 4% on the board), but that's how averages work. The rate this day last week was 2.72%, so it looks like a huge jump. It's actually not.

eigrod · 17-11-2020 05:13PM

Better news. Lowest positivity rate since last Thursday.

stephenjmcd · 17-11-2020 05:14PM

seamus wrote: »

Better numbers today

364 positive swabs from 9,830 tests. 3.7% positivity. 7-day rate is UP to 3.97% (will be 4% on the board), but that's how averages work. The rate this day last week was 2.72%, so it looks like a huge jump. It's actually not.

Have to see now how it progresses over the next few days now. Perhaps we might have seen a slight blip the week after Halloween?

Stark · 17-11-2020 05:16PM

Where are you guys getting the numbers this early in the day from? I usually have to wait till about 6 to get them from gov.ie

What Username Guidelines · 17-11-2020 05:21PM

Stark wrote: »

Where are you guys getting the numbers this early in the day from? I usually have to wait till about 6 to get them from gov.ie

It's swab data, available from the HSE dashboard, and here https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/api/swabs/

Positive swabs should be more than cases, but there is a disconnect somewhere. It's usually a good indicator of the sort of number we'll see later, but can be +/– 200 cases sometimes, but it's been pretty close the last few days. The link above shows the variance between swabs and cases per day

17-11-2020 05:21PM

Stark wrote: »

Where are you guys getting the numbers this early in the day from? I usually have to wait till about 6 to get them from gov.ie

https://covid-19.geohive.ie/datasets/f6d6332820ca466999dbd852f6ad4d5a_0/data?page=25

wadacrack · 17-11-2020 05:21PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Have to see now how it progresses over the next few days now. Perhaps we might have seen a slight blip the week after Halloween?

Very doubtful, Have never seem that pattern in any country. My guess is that its going to fluctuate between 400-600 daily. Probably best case scenario

440Hertz · 17-11-2020 05:23PM

Can we get some figures that break down transmission in the community and transmission in healthcare or similar clusters?

seamus · 17-11-2020 05:25PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Have to see now how it progresses over the next few days now. Perhaps we might have seen a slight blip the week after Halloween?

I think I'm on board with the other explanations people have suggested here. The increase didn't match up with any surge in GP referrals as one would expect if we had wide community transmissions.

What it would match up with is a number of isolated clusters leading to big outbreaks; like 85 (!) cases in Limerick yesterday, which is like 588 cases in Dublin in a single day.

If that is the case and they have been properly caught and traced, then we should see the effect of these starting to wane over the rest of the week.

If they've escaped beyond the cluster and into the community, then the effect could be felt longer, but one would hope that level 5 is preventing that or otherwise quickly stop it dead.

stephenjmcd · 17-11-2020 05:25PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Very doubtful, Have never seem that pattern in any country. My guess is that its going to fluctuate between 400-600 daily. Probably best case scenario

Its a possibility, even though we were in L5 I know of more parties that weekend, more people who brought the kids to the grandparents for a few hours.

Its not something that can be ruled out that cases may have seeded that weekend but in saying that there still hasn't been any uptick in community referrals so its difficult to know really if there was any impact from that weekend

MOR316 · 17-11-2020 05:28PM

I'm assuming we'll have Ireland's new favourite son, John King, over to cut the ribbon on the opening of the first vaccine centre?

stephenjmcd · 17-11-2020 05:29PM

seamus wrote: »

I think I'm on board with the other explanations people have suggested here. The increase didn't match up with any surge in GP referrals as one would expect if we had wide community transmissions.

What it would match up with is a number of isolated clusters leading to big outbreaks; like 85 (!) cases in Limerick yesterday, which is like 588 cases in Dublin in a single day.

If that is the case and they have been properly caught and traced, then we should see the effect of these starting to wane over the rest of the week.

If they've escaped beyond the cluster and into the community, then the effect could be felt longer, but one would hope that level 5 is preventing that or otherwise quickly stop it dead.

Yeah it was just 1 thing I was thinking about in terms of timelines but I agree no surge in GP referrals, they aren't seeing an increase.

A point to note with regards to Limerick perhaps its linked to UL who knows but 6 prison officers have tested postivie in Limerick and 1 inmate last week. Mass testing completed in the last few days and no other cases picked up.

polesheep · 17-11-2020 05:39PM

owlbethere wrote: »

If you can't buy a toy in advance of Christmas in aldi or lidl or you can't get toys or underwear or socks with your grocery shop in dunnes or tesco because they are considered non essential, no way should pubs be allowed open to serve take away pints and alcohol. The pubs opening for take aways facilitates the movement of people for no essential reasons and that's its the level 5 we are have right now and the authorities are trying to reduce the movement of people for non essential reasons.

I think it's more a case that the things you mention should be open and available.

Kermit.de.frog · 17-11-2020 05:51PM

Looking to Europe, 731 deaths reported today in Italy which is the highest toll since April 3rd. They are getting the raw end of this again unfortunately.

https://twitter.com/gerryorome/status/1328736939189604353

It's more evenly spread through the country than last time. Details here https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/

fred funk }{ · 17-11-2020 05:55PM

440Hertz wrote: »

Can we get some figures that break down transmission in the community and transmission in healthcare or similar clusters?

This is interesting.

lawrencesummers · 17-11-2020 06:02PM

fred funk }{ wrote: »

This is interesting.

How the F can a private house the cause of an outbreak?

Does this virus get transmitted by post or something?

What a joke. That just means they are unable / unwilling to establish the origin of the initial person getting infected.

eagle eye · 17-11-2020 06:04PM

lawrencesummers wrote:

What a joke. That just means they are unable / unwilling to establish the origin of the initial person getting infected.

Yes, they don't want to find out if it's kids in school driving it.

spookwoman · 17-11-2020 06:04PM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

How the F can a private house the cause of an outbreak?

Does this virus get transmitted by post or something?

What a joke. That just means they are unable / unwilling to establish the origin of the initial person getting infected.

I belief if a number of people in a house get infected it is regarded as a cluster and when you think about it it really is. Heard a family of 5 here got infected and that is a cluster

iamwhoiam · 17-11-2020 06:06PM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

How the F can a private house the cause of an outbreak?

Does this virus get transmitted by post or something?

What a joke. That just means they are unable / unwilling to establish the origin of the initial person getting infected.

A private house can be the cause of an outbreak as an outbreak or cluster is mote than two people . Someone gets infected and brings it to a private house causing an outbreak of more than two more in the house infected

Stark · 17-11-2020 06:06PM

House shares. House parties. Any sort of get together in the house. Any time the virus is transmitted between people when they're in a house at the same time.

Not even sure why I'm dignifying that with a reply, it's so blindingly obvious. Sure, pretend you don't know how the virus gets transmitted 8 months since start of pandemic.

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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