Italy & Covid-19

19-06-2020 2:18pm #1

Detected in wastewater. No wonder they got it bad. It was circulating / spreading there for months, hitting the Lombardy region particularly hard.

I wonder what that means for the original Chinese timeline story.

Certainly puts to bed the story that the Italians were promoting at one time that their cases came initially from a factory outbreak in Germany.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53106444

NIMAN · 19-06-2020 2:19pm

Does it not mean that Patient No1 wasn't actually the first person then?

19-06-2020 2:26pm

NIMAN wrote: »

Does it not mean that Patient No1 wasn't actually the first person then?

Considering that was in late February, obviously yes.

thelad95 · 19-06-2020 5:17pm

Anecdotally, I believe it was in Ireland long before Dr Tony et al believe so. There's now been studies from both Italy and France showing Coronavirus was likely there before Christmas and given the daily visitor numbers to Ireland from these countries, I don't see how we would have avoided it for that long.

19-06-2020 5:58pm

thelad95 wrote: »

Anecdotally, I believe it was in Ireland long before Dr Tony et al believe so. There's now been studies from both Italy and France showing Coronavirus was likely there before Christmas and given the daily visitor numbers to Ireland from these countries, I don't see how we would have avoided it for that long.

there's a lot of the "oh that cold I had in December was the Coronavirus" which is possible but if it was then it's likely that Ireland would have ended up getting a big spike like Italy did.

I don't put much store in those tales tbh unless there is actual proof like the wastewater analysis or a confirmed case.

otnomart · 19-06-2020 6:16pm

thelad95 wrote: »

Anecdotally, I believe it was in Ireland long before Dr Tony et al believe so. There's now been studies from both Italy and France showing Coronavirus was likely there before Christmas and given the daily visitor numbers to Ireland from these countries, I don't see how we would have avoided it for that long.

Yes.

"A French hospital that retested old samples from pneumonia patients has discovered that it treated a man with the coronavirus as early as 27 December"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/french-hospital-discovers-covid-19-case-december-retested

WHO "urged more countries to look for other early incidences of the virus, which was first reported by Chinese authorities to the WHO on 31 December and not previously thought to have spread to Europe until January."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/05/who-seeks-early-coronavirus-cases-as-merkel-warns-over-german-lockdown

yosemitesam1 · 20-06-2020 10:08am

glasso wrote: »

Detected in wastewater. No wonder they got it bad. It was circulating / spreading there for months, hitting the Lombardy region particularly hard.

I wonder what that means for the original Chinese timeline story.

Certainly puts to bed the story that the Italians were promoting at one time that their cases came initially from a factory outbreak in Germany.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53106444

Wonder what percentage of people need to be shedding the virus for it to be detectable.
Must be a fairly decent amount of people, which would mean that the r0 is much lower than 3 for covid with zero restrictions

ceadaoin. · 20-06-2020 10:33am

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Wonder what percentage of people need to be shedding the virus for it to be detectable.
Must be a fairly decent amount of people, which would mean that the r0 is much lower than 3 for covid with zero restrictions

Yeah, its been well established by now that the spread of this is driven by super spreader people or events. Most dont pass it on. It obviously takes longer than first thought to reach the point of mass hospitalisations and a much bigger number of total infections than are officially detected.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all

double jobbing · 20-06-2020 10:45am

glasso wrote: »

there's a lot of the "oh that cold I had in December was the Coronavirus" which is possible but if it was then it's likely that Ireland would have ended up getting a big spike like Italy did.

I don't put much store in those tales tbh unless there is actual proof like the wastewater analysis or a confirmed case.

There's some gas bastards out there with their "I had an unexplained awful dose in December, never anything like it, had to be Corona"

A bad flu like illness in the middle of an Irish winter. Unheard of :pac:

RobertKK · 20-06-2020 2:21pm

This shows the whole lockdown was probably during the second wave.

Also only vulnerable people and those who live and work with them should have been in lockdown, probably cost countries billions as it was handled so badly.

otnomart · 29-06-2020 11:09am

"according to a study by Barcelona University (UB) that has detected SARS-CoV-2 in samples of wastewater collected in the Catalan capital on 12 March 2019"
Source: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/covid-19-was-in-spain-a-year-before-breakout/
and Spanish: https://euractiv.es/section/politicas/news/el-coronavirus-ya-estaba-en-espana-un-ano-antes-de-estallar-la-pandemia/

bb1234567 · 29-06-2020 11:21am

otnomart wrote: »

"according to a study by Barcelona University (UB) that has detected SARS-CoV-2 in samples of wastewater collected in the Catalan capital on 12 March 2019"
Source: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/covid-19-was-in-spain-a-year-before-breakout/
and Spanish: https://euractiv.es/section/politicas/news/el-coronavirus-ya-estaba-en-espana-un-ano-antes-de-estallar-la-pandemia/

What the fook! This is mad

This is making me question the antibody studies now, how could only 5% of Spaniards have ever had the virus if it's circulating since March 2019

seamus · 29-06-2020 11:29am

It seems to be generally taken that the positive sample from March 2019 is an error. But the data is still being reviewed.

Samples taken from April to December 2019 haven't come up postive, so it seems incredibly unlikely that it would be present in March (enough to be detected) and then disappear again for the rest of the year.

It seems more likely that the sample or the equipment was contaminated, or there was another coronovirus present at the time that's similar enough to Covid 19 to give a false positive.

ttoppcat · 22-07-2020 8:36am

Speaking to a friend last night who told me the hospital had called her partner back in last week to tell him the "flu" that had him in hospital for 3 weeks in December was actually Covid. He's now being monitored for anti bodies. Maybe there is something to the "bad dose" stories after all

average_runner · 22-07-2020 9:07am

It was probably in Ireland since Jan, just people didnt really know much about it

unhappys10 · 22-07-2020 9:12am

double jobbing wrote: »

There's some gas bastards out there with their "I had an unexplained awful dose in December, never anything like it, had to be Corona"

A bad flu like illness in the middle of an Irish winter. Unheard of :pac:

How many times have you had the actual flu though, and I don't mean the sniffles.

It's a rare occurance.

My father in law had a flu of some sort in December, he couldn't get out of the bed for a week. Went to the doctors at the beginning and the doctor took a throat swab. The father in law thought this was unusual, I don't know if its normal procedure for a flu or not but he thought nothing more of it at the time.

He said it was the worst dose he ever had.

It's not unbelievable that it was circulating before we think it was.
Maybe it wasn't it but maybe it was, I don't know for sure and neither do you.

wellwhynot · 22-07-2020 9:20am

I would hope that they are testing blood samples in Ireland going back last year. They need to figure out when it was here. If it was here September/October last year than they can confidently open the schools.

s1ippy · 22-07-2020 9:23am

ttoppcat wrote: »

Speaking to a friend last night who told me the hospital had called her partner back in last week to tell him the "flu" that had him in hospital for 3 weeks in December was actually Covid. He's now being monitored for anti bodies. Maybe there is something to the "bad dose" stories after all

Genuinely and I'm not doubting that this happened, but he should email the newspapers with this story, if not a load of bull. It would make him patient 0 here.

bb1234567 · 22-07-2020 10:37am

wellwhynot wrote: »

I would hope that they are testing blood samples in Ireland going back last year. They need to figure out when it was here. If it was here September/October last year than they can confidently open the schools.

Of course it hasn't been circulating in any significant way last September. Recent anitbody tests suggest less than 5% of Irish people have had it, and with MArch/April being the only time our excess mortality went up noticeably it would also mean the vast majority of the already relatively small pool of infections occurred in that short timeframe.

It was probably circulating throughout January and February though

ttoppcat · 17-11-2020 10:49am

Corona virus in Italy as early as Sept 19

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/researchers-find-coronavirus-was-circulating-in-italy-in-september-2019-1036981.html

zerosugarbuzz · 17-11-2020 11:02am

bb1234567 wrote: »

Of course it hasn't been circulating in any significant way last September. Recent anitbody tests suggest less than 5% of Irish people have had it, and with MArch/April being the only time our excess mortality went up noticeably it would also mean the vast majority of the already relatively small pool of infections occurred in that short timeframe.

It was probably circulating throughout January and February though

Why were the minutes from NPHET first meeting in January never revealed despite many requests? Maybe they have details of when the medics knew Covid was here.

AssetBacked2 · 17-11-2020 11:07am

glasso wrote: »

there's a lot of the "oh that cold I had in December was the Coronavirus" which is possible but if it was then it's likely that Ireland would have ended up getting a big spike like Italy did.

I don't put much store in those tales tbh unless there is actual proof like the wastewater analysis or a confirmed case.

To be fair, it's a virus so deadly you need to be tested to know you have it.

If there was no testing available for it, there may not have been a way to establish whether it was present in those that died from other things (as would generally be how people die "with" covid).

The arguments for wearing masks, providing how easy it is to spread covid can also be applied to arguments that it was circulating freely for weeks and many multiples of our official recorded positive cases were in fact infected. This would explain how only 270 people have died with covid in the last 6 months (under the age of 85).

Bicyclette · 17-11-2020 11:29am

glasso wrote: »

there's a lot of the "oh that cold I had in December was the Coronavirus" which is possible but if it was then it's likely that Ireland would have ended up getting a big spike like Italy did.

I don't put much store in those tales tbh unless there is actual proof like the wastewater analysis or a confirmed case.

They should be looking at nursing home deaths in December 2019. Friend of a friend had a relative in a nursing home in the midlands. A lot of the people living in that nursing home (12 or so) died from "the flu" in December.

I know that where I am working, the "flu" spread like wildfire in November-December. There were people out sick for two and three months. I had the flu vaccine in October but in November I was sent home from work with a hacking cough. Enough to catch my breath. I was off work for a week and the day I went back, I woke up with a crazy migraine - but had to go in. I was feeling awful and afraid to stand up all day in case I went down. Eventually I left work early and spent another week in bed followed by another week of half days. I was still struggling over Christmas. Couldn't walk very far without getting breathless. Other colleagues had similar symptoms. Including one who thought they were getting a heart attack because they were so breathless and their heart was gone bananas.

One of my siblings had Covid. I am 100% convinced that what we had was a milder version. That what arrived here in March was a mutated stronger version. And that it seems to have mutated to be a bit milder again.

seamus · 17-11-2020 11:37am

Bicyclette wrote: »

They should be looking at nursing home deaths in December 2019. Friend of a friend had a relative in a nursing home in the midlands. A lot of the people living in that nursing home (12 or so) died from "the flu" in December.

I know that where I am working, the "flu" spread like wildfire in November-December. There were people out sick for two and three months.

The data from last year hasn't changed though; we did see a massive spike in influenza detections last year at the same time that lots of people were getting sick.

This 'flu spike perfectly explains the levels of illness and death last year, it's not a big mystery searching for an answer.

High Covid rates last December would in fact create more questions than answers; we'd expect to see much bigger deaths than we did.

Things in general seem to have gone quiet on the retroative studies though. There was a lot of activity around the early Summer about looking at samples to find Covid, but then I've heard nothing until this Italian study.

Surely every country has mountains of tissue samples from last year that they could be using to have a look back?

yosemitesam1 · 17-11-2020 11:43am

seamus wrote: »

The data from last year hasn't changed though; we did see a massive spike in influenza detections last year at the same time that lots of people were getting sick.

This 'flu spike perfectly explains the levels of illness and death last year, it's not a big mystery searching for an answer.

High Covid rates last December would in fact create more questions than answers; we'd expect to see much bigger deaths than we did.

Things in general seem to have gone quiet on the retroative studies though. There was a lot of activity around the early Summer about looking at samples to find Covid, but then I've heard nothing until this Italian study.

Surely every country has mountains of tissue samples from last year that they could be using to have a look back?

Maybe they don't really want to be looking back because all it does is detract from their credibility or best case scenario for government/nphet/academia, it comes back negative and adds little knowledge

rob316 · 17-11-2020 11:46am

I've had the flu a number of times over my 33 years and last Xmas was by far the worst I experienced. 1 week of not been able to breath and wrecked for about 3 weeks afterwards. That wasn't the flu, I'm absolutely convinced.

Mongfinder General · 17-11-2020 11:49am

rob316 wrote: »

I've had the flu a number of times over my 33 years and last Xmas was by far the worst I experienced. 1 week of not been able to breath and wrecked for about 3 weeks afterwards. That wasn't the flu, I'm absolutely convinced.

Snap. I was basically hallucinating on Christmas night. I’ve never been hot that hard before.

screamer · 17-11-2020 11:49am

i also think covid was here last December, but like now, deaths were low because of the demographics who contracted it. we'll probably never know for sure though.

paw patrol · 17-11-2020 11:53am

posted this in another thread probably more apt here. apologies for repetition

I did read that a re examination of a death in Dec in France found covid.

Edit: (as posted above my a poster otnomart)

I'd say it was here but they weren't looking for it so it wasn't found or was dismissed as another respiratory illness.
Not all medical exams are from the movies with a dedicated scientist staying up for days to solve the puzzle.

If you think about it , with such worldwide travel and given Wuhan is such a large city it's odd that it didn't reach Europe for a few months and the UK till Feb given heathrow is a such a global hub.

You just need some common sense to know it was definitely here (in Europe) soon after it kicked off in china

j@utis · 17-11-2020 11:56am

average_runner wrote: »

It was probably in Ireland since Jan, just people didnt really know much about it

I'd say earlier. Many of my work colleagues and myself included were sick before last xmas and after it. I got the milder symptoms, I remember having absolute zero energy to the point that I wouldn't get out the bed in the morning, slight fever on and off but no dreaded cough. One of my coworkers was literally coughing his lungs out, at work of course, with everyone around him. I'm so glad we didn't know or care about covid back then, it saved us so much hassle (testing, quarantines, unpaid sick leave, etc).

rob316 · 17-11-2020 11:57am

screamer wrote: »

i also think covid was here last December, but like now, deaths were low because of the demographics who contracted it. we'll probably never know for sure though.

It's just not plausible that it wasn't spreading around Europe well before Feb. One thing we know about it, is that its highly infectious.

NSAman · 17-11-2020 12:05pm

I was home last December. I remember the guy behind me on the plane back coughing his guts up. The lady in front of me when disembarking commented how bad his coughing was and that she felt queasy upon leaving the plane which I did also.

7 days later, 7 days of being on the couch. High temps, inability to breath, coughing, changing my tee shirt three times a day.. doc called not influenza a or b.. mystified.

Roll on 11 months later and symptoms that have lasted all summer to now. Doc says he thinks it was 19, has seen people back from wuhan in December with same symptoms even now. Could only have picked this up in Ireland in December ...

mohawk · 17-11-2020 12:10pm

j@utis wrote: »

I'd say earlier. Many of my work colleagues and myself included were sick before last xmas and after it. I got the milder symptoms, I remember having absolute zero energy to the point that I wouldn't get out the bed in the morning, slight fever on and off but no dreaded cough. One of my coworkers was literally coughing his lungs out, at work of course, with everyone around him. I'm so glad we didn't know or care about covid back then, it saved us so much hassle (testing, quarantines, unpaid sick leave, etc).

I got what I believed to be a cold last January, for weeks I had it. A cough that just didn’t let up, I started getting breathless going up stairs. I was wrecked after it. Everyone in work had something similar. I heard of quite a few older people suffering with pneumonia or breathing issues last Christmas. A couple of them ended up needing inhalers for breathing difficulties.

If it was Covid should the hospitals not of been overrun last January?

lolokeogh · 17-11-2020 12:11pm

would it have stretched back to the world military game in wuhan
9,308 athletes from 110 countries participated in the games..
18 October 2019,some claim the were ill after it,and one irish lad also??
Algeria (56)
Albania (5)
Angola (2)
Armenia (15)
Argentina (2)
Azerbaijan (20)
Austria (37)
Brazil (329)
Guatemala (13)
Bahrain (69)
Barbados (2)
Belarus (95)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (11)
Belgium (51)
Botswana (15)
Bulgaria (21)
Burkina Faso (3)
Canada (104)
Cameroon (55)
Republic of the Congo (19)
Cape Verde (4)
Chile (32)
Colombia (31)
China (553)
Croatia (11)
Cyprus (8)
Czech Republic (27)
Chad (11)
Democratic Republic of the Congo (26)
Denmark (61)
Djibouti (3)
Dominican Republic (31)
Ecuador (74)
Egypt (83)
Eritrea (3)
Estonia (27)
Swaziland (2)
Finland (53)
France (273)
Germany (243)
Gabon (9)
Gambia (3)
Greece (46)
Guinea (14)
Guyana (4)
Hungary (56)
India (54)
Iran (90)
Indonesia (46)
Ireland (32)
Italy (139)
Jordan (5)
Kazakhstan (62)
Kenya (14)
Kuwait (35)
Lesotho (3)
Latvia (32)
Lebanon (7)
Lithuania (56)
Luxembourg (18)
Morocco (24)
Monaco (2)
Mongolia (75)
Montenegro (2)
Mozambique (3)
Myanmar (44)
Macedonia (4)
Namibia (3)
Netherlands (89)
Nepal (40)
Niger (3)
Nigeria (12)
North Korea (156)
Norway (28)
Oman (63)
Pakistan (19)
State of Palestine (9)
Peru (15)
Poland (193)
Portugal (9)
Qatar (99)
Romania (77)
Russia (243)
Rwanda (41)
Saudi Arabia (41)
Senegal (3)
Serbia (41)
Slovakia (14)
Slovenia (32)
Korea (172)
Spain (111)
Sri Lanka (73)
Sweden (72)
Switzerland (67)
Syria (15)
Tanzania (22)
Thailand (55)
Togo (3)
Tunisia (17)
Turkmenistan (4)
Turkey (20)
United Arab Emirates (27)
United States (172)
Uganda (5)
Uzbekistan (50)
Ukraine (87)
Uruguay (27)
Venezuela (84)
Vietnam (32)
Zambia (13)
Zimbabwe (28)

lemonkey · 17-11-2020 12:19pm

I'm 100% convinced it was here last December.

Literally it felt like every 2nd person was sick.

I myself had the worst flu/cough that I had ever gotten, lasted the full 2 weeks of my Christmas holidays. Was only better the day before going back to work, typical..

My mother had a burning temperature that lasted almost 2 weeks.
My Sister was sick for over a week.
My daughter was in hospital St. Stephens day with pneumonia.
Her god father had a burning temperature for 2 weeks. Back and forth to Shannon Doc, thought he was on the way out.

Obviously, we all live in different house holds but funnily enough none of our partners got sick at all.

amadangomor · 17-11-2020 12:27pm

There was a bad dose going around in December/January but it wasn't Covid-19 people. Totally coincidental.

I had it in January and took me a few weeks to get over it, was dropping into bed exhausted when coming home for work the whole month.

Not saying Covid-19 wasn't here in late January but if it was circulation widely we would have had the ICUs full and a high mortality rate in February instead of April/May

lolokeogh · 17-11-2020 12:32pm

lemonkey wrote: »

I'm 100% convinced it was here last December.

Literally it felt like every 2nd person was sick.

I myself had the worst flu/cough that I had ever gotten, lasted the full 2 weeks of my Christmas holidays. Was only better the day before going back to work, typical..

My mother had a burning temperature that lasted almost 2 weeks.
My Sister was sick for over a week.
My daughter was in hospital St. Stephens day with pneumonia.
Her god father had a burning temperature for 2 weeks. Back and forth to Shannon Doc, thought he was on the way out.

Obviously, we all live in different house holds but funnily enough none of our partners got sick at all.

i am not,but i was convinced,we had everything you say above,and in december,infact loads had the same,but we all caught covid here in august,the whole family,and we had realy none of the symtoms like the december ilness,we had no taste or smell,and all realy odd things,unable to move from the bed with fatigue,at times i would have a feeling of grit in my eyes,breathing issues among loads of odd symtoms,and one od the oddest is some mornings you would wake up and feel like you can run 10 miles,and hour later in a heap in bed.i was ill i think august 25..had sweats but not warm,the next day more the same,the 3rd day i was realy weak and looked realy unwell,the 4/5th day i can not remember,i was in bed for the 2 days wiped,so what ever happened those 5 days it was like it drained my system of any goodness..skip on to today,my ledest daughter is back to work tomorrow on short hours as the fatigue with her is extreme,my partner has all sorts of weird aches and pains,my youngest daughter danced at a high level,between classes,workouts at home and practise at home she was doing on average 30 hours a week,she has not even tryed to get back at it yet..and me i have extreme fatigue,i will get a warning sign that im going to crash..my feet start getting a extreme burning sensation,then wallop man down.i also had skin burning sensation when i had covid,was like i was lying out in the sun and my arms and shoulder were burned

AssetBacked2 · 17-11-2020 12:35pm

lolokeogh wrote: »

would it have stretched back to the world military game in wuhan
9,308 athletes from 110 countries participated in the games..
18 October 2019,some claim the were ill after it,and one irish lad also??
Algeria (56)
Albania (5)
Angola (2)
Armenia (15)
Argentina (2)
Azerbaijan (20)
Austria (37)
Brazil (329)
Guatemala (13)
Bahrain (69)
Barbados (2)
Belarus (95)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (11)
Belgium (51)
Botswana (15)
Bulgaria (21)
Burkina Faso (3)
Canada (104)
Cameroon (55)
Republic of the Congo (19)
Cape Verde (4)
Chile (32)
Colombia (31)
China (553)
Croatia (11)
Cyprus (8)
Czech Republic (27)
Chad (11)
Democratic Republic of the Congo (26)
Denmark (61)
Djibouti (3)
Dominican Republic (31)
Ecuador (74)
Egypt (83)
Eritrea (3)
Estonia (27)
Swaziland (2)
Finland (53)
France (273)
Germany (243)
Gabon (9)
Gambia (3)
Greece (46)
Guinea (14)
Guyana (4)
Hungary (56)
India (54)
Iran (90)
Indonesia (46)
Ireland (32)
Italy (139)
Jordan (5)
Kazakhstan (62)
Kenya (14)
Kuwait (35)
Lesotho (3)
Latvia (32)
Lebanon (7)
Lithuania (56)
Luxembourg (18)
Morocco (24)
Monaco (2)
Mongolia (75)
Montenegro (2)
Mozambique (3)
Myanmar (44)
Macedonia (4)
Namibia (3)
Netherlands (89)
Nepal (40)
Niger (3)
Nigeria (12)
North Korea (156)
Norway (28)
Oman (63)
Pakistan (19)
State of Palestine (9)
Peru (15)
Poland (193)
Portugal (9)
Qatar (99)
Romania (77)
Russia (243)
Rwanda (41)
Saudi Arabia (41)
Senegal (3)
Serbia (41)
Slovakia (14)
Slovenia (32)
Korea (172)
Spain (111)
Sri Lanka (73)
Sweden (72)
Switzerland (67)
Syria (15)
Tanzania (22)
Thailand (55)
Togo (3)
Tunisia (17)
Turkmenistan (4)
Turkey (20)
United Arab Emirates (27)
United States (172)
Uganda (5)
Uzbekistan (50)
Ukraine (87)
Uruguay (27)
Venezuela (84)
Vietnam (32)
Zambia (13)
Zimbabwe (28)

There was a military games in October, around the time the virus took off in China, with military representatives from world countries, including military rivals to China, in the same place that the virus originated?

It would be quite a statement from the Chinese to demonstrate their biological warfare capabilities.

Harry Palmr · 17-11-2020 12:38pm

But of course! :rolleyes: It's hard to keep any thread here on a serious verifiable course when CT are inserted into so many.

AssetBacked2 · 17-11-2020 12:39pm

It's a coincidence, calm yourself.

lolokeogh · 17-11-2020 12:40pm

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

There was a military games in October, around the time the virus took off in China, with representatives from world countries, including military rivals to China, in the same place that the virus originated?

It would be quite a statement from the Chinese to demonstrate their biological warfare capabilities.

yeah i heard some man on joe duffy of all places saying when his son came home he had all the symtoms of covid,but sure there was no one with covid here then,and im sure he said when his son did get the antibody test done it said he had it,now im near sure im right with that,i just do not want to be running down a conspircy path,but there is loads of folk that took part that did say they ended up sick,google throws up all sorts.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Military_World_Games

lolokeogh · 17-11-2020 12:41pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

But of course! :rolleyes: It's hard to keep any thread here on a serious verifiable course when CT are inserted into so many.[/QUO

who said it was a CT?

Wibbs · 17-11-2020 12:44pm

There was also a spike in pneumonia hospitalisations in late 2019 in Dublin. I recall the Journal had a piece on it, but I can't find it as the covid stuff blows out the search engines. IIRC it wasn't a large spike, but enough to be notable.

I got an oddball dose in Jan/Feb from a mate who had been on holiday in Europe. I have passed it off as the flu and likely was some other virus, only I've never had the flu, or rather am asymptomatic with it, the guy I caught this from already had the flu run through his family the previous november(which I didn't get) and had the flu jab. My symptoms were cough, bad headaches(and I never get headaches), high fever(39-40) and that was it. No snotty nose or anything. The guts of it passed in a few days and was more a pain in the arse than a bad dose. My friend(non smoker) was hit hard by it and today if I'm talking with him for any length of time he'll have a cough or two. His wife was really hit badly requiring antibiotics and steroids which didn't seem to do much or took weeks to have an effect. His kids nada. It certainly fits for Covid on the symptoms and origin part and the same symptoms today would have me concerned. Was it? Who knows and any antibodies are likely well gone by now.

This virus is proving to be a real oddball in how it spreads and how it affects people. Even in the more vulnerable groups like the elderly, you'll have some asymptomatic, others mild, some with a bad dose and others dead in a week. Never mind its infectiousness. I personally know of two households where one or two people caught it and were positive yet others in the same household, in one case sharing the same bed, didn't and weren't. You wouldn't see that with influenza or any of the common cold viruses. If you're sleeping with someone you're pretty much guaranteed to be infected by whatever they have.

Though my personal musing is that this can be explained by a previous "bug" that did the rounds in the last ten years gave immunity to some degree to many so they're the asymptomatic and very mild cases. Those who didn't get that bug don't have that protection. This would also explain how smokers aren't as likely to catch it, because smokers are more likely because of their habit to catch seasonal respiratory infections. It also might explain that if smokers do catch it they have worse outcomes(as one would expect). They were the ones who didn't get "inosculated". Also the elderly are less likely to catch "common colds", kids are more likely to.

Whatsisname · 17-11-2020 12:53pm

Bicyclette wrote: »

They should be looking at nursing home deaths in December 2019. Friend of a friend had a relative in a nursing home in the midlands. A lot of the people living in that nursing home (12 or so) died from "the flu" in December.

I know that where I am working, the "flu" spread like wildfire in November-December. There were people out sick for two and three months. I had the flu vaccine in October but in November I was sent home from work with a hacking cough. Enough to catch my breath. I was off work for a week and the day I went back, I woke up with a crazy migraine - but had to go in. I was feeling awful and afraid to stand up all day in case I went down. Eventually I left work early and spent another week in bed followed by another week of half days. I was still struggling over Christmas. Couldn't walk very far without getting breathless. Other colleagues had similar symptoms. Including one who thought they were getting a heart attack because they were so breathless and their heart was gone bananas.

One of my siblings had Covid. I am 100% convinced that what we had was a milder version. That what arrived here in March was a mutated stronger version. And that it seems to have mutated to be a bit milder again.

This is exactly what happened in the nursing home my grandmother was in last November. Unfortunately she was one of those who caught whatever was going around and sadly passed as a result of it. But there was roughly about 12 or so aswell who died within a 2 week window of eachother. I remember my Dad telling me the nurses were shocked at how many were passing so frequently. I don't live in Ireland anymore so I couldn't visit her in her final days but every family member who did said whatever she caught was horrible to see. We've wondered was it covid or not, maybe it was just the flu but who knows.

Ms2011 · 17-11-2020 1:32pm

Bicyclette wrote: »

I know that where I am working, the "flu" spread like wildfire in November-December.

My husband went down with the 'flu' Christmas night and didn't get out of bed until he had to go back to work after New Year even though he wasn't fully recovered. When he went back every second person he spoke to had the same complaint.
Now what I find strange is that he works in a large warehouse in Dublin, 100+ people, a lot would be single men who would be less than hygienic so hand washing, cough etiquette etc. wouldn't be their forte but yet there was only one confirmed case of Covid in his job and that was in a woman in the administration office, none on the floor.
My theory is that they all had Covid at Christmas and had built up antibodies to it and that is why no one bare one person in his job has been confirmed with Covid 19.

Thierry12 · 17-11-2020 1:55pm

Anyone good with Math?

Italy had 500 deaths a day by mid March

Infection to death is on average a few weeks for Covid ,we will say infection to death is 4 weeks

You get infected, 7-10 days later you get sick, 7-10 days later it gets bad, 7-10 days later you die etc

CFR is now thought to be 0.5%

You need 100,000 cases a day to get 500 deaths that took 4 weeks to happen

Italy needed 100,000 cases a day in mid Feb to get 500 deaths in mid March

It started in mid Jan?

Covid has r naught of 2?

Doubles every week

Mid Jan we will be genourous and say 100 people had it.

100,200,400,800,1,600,3,200,6,400,12,800,25,600,51,200, 101,200

That's 10 weeks to get 100,000 cases or so , but Italy had 100,000 cases a day in 4 weeks by mid Feb based on 0.5% CFR

To get 100,000 cases a day with r naught of 2 in 4 weeks

Needs to be 6,500 cases day one

6,500, 13,000, 26,000, 52,000, 104,000

How in the heck did Covid only start in Italy in late Feb?

First case officialy is 21st Feb with 500 deaths a day in mid March

Do governments think we are stupid or something?

Maths don't make sense to me

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/coronavirus-italy-covid-19-pandemic-europe-date-antibodies-study

Away With The Fairies · 17-11-2020 2:19pm

For those that caught it last year, did anyone else catch it this year?

It's so contagious that I was sure I would catch it. But nothing in March, nothing in April, nothing in May... And here we are in November and I'm still waiting to catch it. Not that I want to catch it.

I had a horrible cold last November with a lingering cough. With the way how things are going, I wouldn't rule it out. Just possibly a mild dose of covid.

seamus · 17-11-2020 2:32pm

Thierry12 wrote: »

First case officialy is 21st Feb with 500 deaths a day in mid March[/url]

Italy's first official cases were 31st January, two Chinese tourists who had arrived on 23rd.

There's a good chance they weren't the first; just the first to fall ill when the whole planet was on the lookout for sick Chinese people.

But your timeline does fit that.

Russman · 17-11-2020 2:41pm

Thierry12 wrote: »

Anyone good with Math?

Italy had 500 deaths a day by mid March

Infection to death is on average a few weeks for Covid ,we will say infection to death is 4 weeks

You get infected, 7-10 days later you get sick, 7-10 days later it gets bad, 7-10 days later you die etc

CFR is now thought to be 0.5%

You need 100,000 cases a day to get 500 deaths that took 4 weeks to happen

Italy needed 100,000 cases a day in mid Feb to get 500 deaths in mid March

It started in mid Jan?

Covid has r naught of 2?

Doubles every week

Mid Jan we will be genourous and say 100 people had it.

100,200,400,800,1,600,3,200,6,400,12,800,25,600,51,200, 101,200

That's 10 weeks to get 100,000 cases or so , but Italy had 100,000 cases a day in 4 weeks by mid Feb based on 0.5% CFR

To get 100,000 cases a day with r naught of 2 in 4 weeks

Needs to be 6,500 cases day one

6,500, 13,000, 26,000, 52,000, 104,000

How in the heck did Covid only start in Italy in late Feb?

First case officialy is 21st Feb with 500 deaths a day in mid March

Do governments think we are stupid or something?

Maths don't make sense to me

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/coronavirus-italy-covid-19-pandemic-europe-date-antibodies-study

Don't disagree with you, but doesn't COVID have an R nought of between 3 and 4 "in the wild" ? I'm sure I've seen/heard Philip Nolan say that at the press conferences.

lalababa · 17-11-2020 3:03pm

The medical consensus of the bad virus that hit us last winter was that it was H3N2 or the Hong Kong flu that killed estimate 1-4 million back in 1968-9. It was doing the rounds globally and hit Australia a few months before. AFAIK the flu jab last year did not cover H3N2.( Remember that the hospitals were closed to visitors last winter!)
Any suggestions as to it being C-19 were slapped down.
We are now getting dribs and drabs of evidence that C-19 was in France in December and now Italy in September.

17-11-2020 3:12pm

unhappys10 wrote: »

How many times have you had the actual flu though, and I don't mean the sniffles.

It's a rare occurance.

My father in law had a flu of some sort in December, he couldn't get out of the bed for a week. Went to the doctors at the beginning and the doctor took a throat swab. The father in law thought this was unusual, I don't know if its normal procedure for a flu or not but he thought nothing more of it at the time.

He said it was the worst dose he ever had.

It's not unbelievable that it was circulating before we think it was.
Maybe it wasn't it but maybe it was, I don't know for sure and neither do you.

One thing we know with 100% certainty is that it originated in a wet market in Wuhan, from bats that are native to a region of China 1000 miles away.

Italy & Covid-19

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