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Italy & Covid-19

  • 19-06-2020 1:18pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 19,157 ✭✭✭✭ glasso


    Detected in wastewater. No wonder they got it bad. It was circulating / spreading there for months, hitting the Lombardy region particularly hard.

    I wonder what that means for the original Chinese timeline story.

    Certainly puts to bed the story that the Italians were promoting at one time that their cases came initially from a factory outbreak in Germany.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53106444

    www.buymeacoffee.com/glassopy



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 29,166 ✭✭✭✭ NIMAN


    Does it not mean that Patient No1 wasn't actually the first person then?


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,157 ✭✭✭✭ glasso


    NIMAN wrote: »
    Does it not mean that Patient No1 wasn't actually the first person then?

    Considering that was in late February, obviously yes.

    www.buymeacoffee.com/glassopy



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,810 ✭✭✭ thelad95


    Anecdotally, I believe it was in Ireland long before Dr Tony et al believe so. There's now been studies from both Italy and France showing Coronavirus was likely there before Christmas and given the daily visitor numbers to Ireland from these countries, I don't see how we would have avoided it for that long.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,157 ✭✭✭✭ glasso


    thelad95 wrote: »
    Anecdotally, I believe it was in Ireland long before Dr Tony et al believe so. There's now been studies from both Italy and France showing Coronavirus was likely there before Christmas and given the daily visitor numbers to Ireland from these countries, I don't see how we would have avoided it for that long.

    there's a lot of the "oh that cold I had in December was the Coronavirus" which is possible but if it was then it's likely that Ireland would have ended up getting a big spike like Italy did.

    I don't put much store in those tales tbh unless there is actual proof like the wastewater analysis or a confirmed case.

    www.buymeacoffee.com/glassopy



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,065 ✭✭✭ otnomart


    thelad95 wrote: »
    Anecdotally, I believe it was in Ireland long before Dr Tony et al believe so. There's now been studies from both Italy and France showing Coronavirus was likely there before Christmas and given the daily visitor numbers to Ireland from these countries, I don't see how we would have avoided it for that long.


    Yes.

    "A French hospital that retested old samples from pneumonia patients has discovered that it treated a man with the coronavirus as early as 27 December"
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/french-hospital-discovers-covid-19-case-december-retested


    WHO "urged more countries to look for other early incidences of the virus, which was first reported by Chinese authorities to the WHO on 31 December and not previously thought to have spread to Europe until January."
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/05/who-seeks-early-coronavirus-cases-as-merkel-warns-over-german-lockdown


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,574 ✭✭✭ yosemitesam1


    glasso wrote: »
    Detected in wastewater. No wonder they got it bad. It was circulating / spreading there for months, hitting the Lombardy region particularly hard.

    I wonder what that means for the original Chinese timeline story.

    Certainly puts to bed the story that the Italians were promoting at one time that their cases came initially from a factory outbreak in Germany.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53106444

    Wonder what percentage of people need to be shedding the virus for it to be detectable.
    Must be a fairly decent amount of people, which would mean that the r0 is much lower than 3 for covid with zero restrictions


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,967 ✭✭✭ ceadaoin.


    Wonder what percentage of people need to be shedding the virus for it to be detectable.
    Must be a fairly decent amount of people, which would mean that the r0 is much lower than 3 for covid with zero restrictions

    Yeah, its been well established by now that the spread of this is driven by super spreader people or events. Most dont pass it on. It obviously takes longer than first thought to reach the point of mass hospitalisations and a much bigger number of total infections than are officially detected.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 322 ✭✭ double jobbing


    glasso wrote: »
    there's a lot of the "oh that cold I had in December was the Coronavirus" which is possible but if it was then it's likely that Ireland would have ended up getting a big spike like Italy did.

    I don't put much store in those tales tbh unless there is actual proof like the wastewater analysis or a confirmed case.

    There's some gas bastards out there with their "I had an unexplained awful dose in December, never anything like it, had to be Corona"


    A bad flu like illness in the middle of an Irish winter. Unheard of :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,543 ✭✭✭✭ RobertKK


    This shows the whole lockdown was probably during the second wave.

    Also only vulnerable people and those who live and work with them should have been in lockdown, probably cost countries billions as it was handled so badly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,065 ✭✭✭ otnomart


    "according to a study by Barcelona University (UB) that has detected SARS-CoV-2 in samples of wastewater collected in the Catalan capital on 12 March 2019"
    Source: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/covid-19-was-in-spain-a-year-before-breakout/
    and Spanish: https://euractiv.es/section/politicas/news/el-coronavirus-ya-estaba-en-espana-un-ano-antes-de-estallar-la-pandemia/


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,413 ✭✭✭ bb1234567


    otnomart wrote: »
    "according to a study by Barcelona University (UB) that has detected SARS-CoV-2 in samples of wastewater collected in the Catalan capital on 12 March 2019"
    Source: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/covid-19-was-in-spain-a-year-before-breakout/
    and Spanish: https://euractiv.es/section/politicas/news/el-coronavirus-ya-estaba-en-espana-un-ano-antes-de-estallar-la-pandemia/

    What the fook! This is mad

    This is making me question the antibody studies now, how could only 5% of Spaniards have ever had the virus if it's circulating since March 2019


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,333 ✭✭✭✭ seamus


    It seems to be generally taken that the positive sample from March 2019 is an error. But the data is still being reviewed.

    Samples taken from April to December 2019 haven't come up postive, so it seems incredibly unlikely that it would be present in March (enough to be detected) and then disappear again for the rest of the year.

    It seems more likely that the sample or the equipment was contaminated, or there was another coronovirus present at the time that's similar enough to Covid 19 to give a false positive.


  • Registered Users Posts: 254 ✭✭ ttoppcat


    Speaking to a friend last night who told me the hospital had called her partner back in last week to tell him the "flu" that had him in hospital for 3 weeks in December was actually Covid. He's now being monitored for anti bodies. Maybe there is something to the "bad dose" stories after all


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,531 ✭✭✭✭ average_runner


    It was probably in Ireland since Jan, just people didnt really know much about it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 692 ✭✭✭ unhappys10


    There's some gas bastards out there with their "I had an unexplained awful dose in December, never anything like it, had to be Corona"


    A bad flu like illness in the middle of an Irish winter. Unheard of :pac:

    How many times have you had the actual flu though, and I don't mean the sniffles.

    It's a rare occurance.

    My father in law had a flu of some sort in December, he couldn't get out of the bed for a week. Went to the doctors at the beginning and the doctor took a throat swab. The father in law thought this was unusual, I don't know if its normal procedure for a flu or not but he thought nothing more of it at the time.

    He said it was the worst dose he ever had.

    It's not unbelievable that it was circulating before we think it was.
    Maybe it wasn't it but maybe it was, I don't know for sure and neither do you.


  • Registered Users Posts: 280 ✭✭ wellwhynot


    I would hope that they are testing blood samples in Ireland going back last year. They need to figure out when it was here. If it was here September/October last year than they can confidently open the schools.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭ s1ippy


    ttoppcat wrote: »
    Speaking to a friend last night who told me the hospital had called her partner back in last week to tell him the "flu" that had him in hospital for 3 weeks in December was actually Covid. He's now being monitored for anti bodies. Maybe there is something to the "bad dose" stories after all
    Genuinely and I'm not doubting that this happened, but he should email the newspapers with this story, if not a load of bull. It would make him patient 0 here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,413 ✭✭✭ bb1234567


    wellwhynot wrote: »
    I would hope that they are testing blood samples in Ireland going back last year. They need to figure out when it was here. If it was here September/October last year than they can confidently open the schools.

    Of course it hasn't been circulating in any significant way last September. Recent anitbody tests suggest less than 5% of Irish people have had it, and with MArch/April being the only time our excess mortality went up noticeably it would also mean the vast majority of the already relatively small pool of infections occurred in that short timeframe.

    It was probably circulating throughout January and February though


  • Registered Users Posts: 254 ✭✭ ttoppcat




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭ zerosugarbuzz


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Of course it hasn't been circulating in any significant way last September. Recent anitbody tests suggest less than 5% of Irish people have had it, and with MArch/April being the only time our excess mortality went up noticeably it would also mean the vast majority of the already relatively small pool of infections occurred in that short timeframe.

    It was probably circulating throughout January and February though

    Why were the minutes from NPHET first meeting in January never revealed despite many requests? Maybe they have details of when the medics knew Covid was here.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭ AssetBacked2


    glasso wrote: »
    there's a lot of the "oh that cold I had in December was the Coronavirus" which is possible but if it was then it's likely that Ireland would have ended up getting a big spike like Italy did.

    I don't put much store in those tales tbh unless there is actual proof like the wastewater analysis or a confirmed case.

    To be fair, it's a virus so deadly you need to be tested to know you have it.

    If there was no testing available for it, there may not have been a way to establish whether it was present in those that died from other things (as would generally be how people die "with" covid).

    The arguments for wearing masks, providing how easy it is to spread covid can also be applied to arguments that it was circulating freely for weeks and many multiples of our official recorded positive cases were in fact infected. This would explain how only 270 people have died with covid in the last 6 months (under the age of 85).


  • Registered Users Posts: 287 ✭✭ Bicyclette


    glasso wrote: »
    there's a lot of the "oh that cold I had in December was the Coronavirus" which is possible but if it was then it's likely that Ireland would have ended up getting a big spike like Italy did.

    I don't put much store in those tales tbh unless there is actual proof like the wastewater analysis or a confirmed case.

    They should be looking at nursing home deaths in December 2019. Friend of a friend had a relative in a nursing home in the midlands. A lot of the people living in that nursing home (12 or so) died from "the flu" in December.

    I know that where I am working, the "flu" spread like wildfire in November-December. There were people out sick for two and three months. I had the flu vaccine in October but in November I was sent home from work with a hacking cough. Enough to catch my breath. I was off work for a week and the day I went back, I woke up with a crazy migraine - but had to go in. I was feeling awful and afraid to stand up all day in case I went down. Eventually I left work early and spent another week in bed followed by another week of half days. I was still struggling over Christmas. Couldn't walk very far without getting breathless. Other colleagues had similar symptoms. Including one who thought they were getting a heart attack because they were so breathless and their heart was gone bananas.

    One of my siblings had Covid. I am 100% convinced that what we had was a milder version. That what arrived here in March was a mutated stronger version. And that it seems to have mutated to be a bit milder again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,333 ✭✭✭✭ seamus


    Bicyclette wrote: »
    They should be looking at nursing home deaths in December 2019. Friend of a friend had a relative in a nursing home in the midlands. A lot of the people living in that nursing home (12 or so) died from "the flu" in December.

    I know that where I am working, the "flu" spread like wildfire in November-December. There were people out sick for two and three months.
    The data from last year hasn't changed though; we did see a massive spike in influenza detections last year at the same time that lots of people were getting sick.

    This 'flu spike perfectly explains the levels of illness and death last year, it's not a big mystery searching for an answer.

    High Covid rates last December would in fact create more questions than answers; we'd expect to see much bigger deaths than we did.

    Things in general seem to have gone quiet on the retroative studies though. There was a lot of activity around the early Summer about looking at samples to find Covid, but then I've heard nothing until this Italian study.

    Surely every country has mountains of tissue samples from last year that they could be using to have a look back?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,574 ✭✭✭ yosemitesam1


    seamus wrote: »
    The data from last year hasn't changed though; we did see a massive spike in influenza detections last year at the same time that lots of people were getting sick.

    This 'flu spike perfectly explains the levels of illness and death last year, it's not a big mystery searching for an answer.

    High Covid rates last December would in fact create more questions than answers; we'd expect to see much bigger deaths than we did.

    Things in general seem to have gone quiet on the retroative studies though. There was a lot of activity around the early Summer about looking at samples to find Covid, but then I've heard nothing until this Italian study.

    Surely every country has mountains of tissue samples from last year that they could be using to have a look back?

    Maybe they don't really want to be looking back because all it does is detract from their credibility or best case scenario for government/nphet/academia, it comes back negative and adds little knowledge


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,524 ✭✭✭✭ rob316


    I've had the flu a number of times over my 33 years and last Xmas was by far the worst I experienced. 1 week of not been able to breath and wrecked for about 3 weeks afterwards. That wasn't the flu, I'm absolutely convinced.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,925 ✭✭✭ Mongfinder General


    rob316 wrote: »
    I've had the flu a number of times over my 33 years and last Xmas was by far the worst I experienced. 1 week of not been able to breath and wrecked for about 3 weeks afterwards. That wasn't the flu, I'm absolutely convinced.

    Snap. I was basically hallucinating on Christmas night. I’ve never been hot that hard before.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,591 ✭✭✭ screamer


    i also think covid was here last December, but like now, deaths were low because of the demographics who contracted it. we'll probably never know for sure though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,314 ✭✭✭ paw patrol


    posted this in another thread probably more apt here. apologies for repetition


    I did read that a re examination of a death in Dec in France found covid.

    Edit: (as posted above my a poster otnomart)


    I'd say it was here but they weren't looking for it so it wasn't found or was dismissed as another respiratory illness.
    Not all medical exams are from the movies with a dedicated scientist staying up for days to solve the puzzle.

    If you think about it , with such worldwide travel and given Wuhan is such a large city it's odd that it didn't reach Europe for a few months and the UK till Feb given heathrow is a such a global hub.

    You just need some common sense to know it was definitely here (in Europe) soon after it kicked off in china


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,459 ✭✭✭ j@utis


    It was probably in Ireland since Jan, just people didnt really know much about it
    I'd say earlier. Many of my work colleagues and myself included were sick before last xmas and after it. I got the milder symptoms, I remember having absolute zero energy to the point that I wouldn't get out the bed in the morning, slight fever on and off but no dreaded cough. One of my coworkers was literally coughing his lungs out, at work of course, with everyone around him. I'm so glad we didn't know or care about covid back then, it saved us so much hassle (testing, quarantines, unpaid sick leave, etc).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,524 ✭✭✭✭ rob316


    screamer wrote: »
    i also think covid was here last December, but like now, deaths were low because of the demographics who contracted it. we'll probably never know for sure though.

    It's just not plausible that it wasn't spreading around Europe well before Feb. One thing we know about it, is that its highly infectious.


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