Schools closed until February? (part 3)

Thats me · 15-11-2020 08:34PM

meeeeh wrote: »

And incidence rate in Greece is more than twice as high as in Ireland.

Do you mean Ireland should reach this rate first and only after that do what is required to stop pandemy?

Darwin · 15-11-2020 08:38PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

I highly doubt that colleges will fully reopen.

Mate of mine is a lecturer down in Waterford and they are planning for a continuation of the current setup.

Simon Harris has being making noises about getting colleges to open up to first and final year students for Semester 2, so that would mark a change from the current setup in our place. We had to complete a survey showing on-campus numbers last week which came from the HEA (as directed by the department of Education) so something is stirring. I believe they are very concerned about drop-out rates as a significant number of students are unable to cope with online learning for different reasons.

Icyseanfitz · 15-11-2020 09:26PM

If cases start to rise in the next week it will be an indicator of schools in my opinion, the return after midterm would be impacting numbers from now on.

Smacruairi · 15-11-2020 09:34PM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

If cases start to rise in the next week it will be an indicator of schools in my opinion, the return after midterm would be impacting numbers from now on.

Agreed. Not that I want that to happen at all of course, hopefully the downward trend continues. But from my vantage point Halloween was a dead entity, no parties or trick treating in my area so that can't be blamed. The moment of truth is the next week or so.

Messi19 · 15-11-2020 10:01PM

There was a chance to limit the spread by extending the midterm to 3 weeks by going a week before and a week after but fudged it. An extended Xmas break could be on if the numbers continue to rise

jrosen · 15-11-2020 10:16PM

Messi19 wrote: »

There was a chance to limit the spread by extending the midterm to 3 weeks by going a week before and a week after but fudged it. An extended Xmas break could be on if the numbers continue to rise

I dont think we will see any additional time off at Christmas. I reckon they would close businesses sooner.

Smacruairi · 15-11-2020 10:21PM

If the numbers go back to the 1000 a day as they were before midterm, or if there's a school death, they'll close the schools. Otherwise this is school for the foreseeable future.

Blondini · 15-11-2020 10:21PM

Messi19 wrote: »

There was a chance to limit the spread by extending the midterm to 3 weeks by going a week before and a week after but fudged it. An extended Xmas break could be on if the numbers continue to rise

Schools will only close when hell freezes over, which will be handy for storing the vaccine which has to be kept at -80 degrees :pac:

(For clarity, I don't want schools to fully close)

wirelessdude01 · 15-11-2020 10:22PM

Messi19 wrote: »

There was a chance to limit the spread by extending the midterm to 3 weeks by going a week before and a week after but fudged it. An extended Xmas break could be on if the numbers continue to rise

Not a chance in hell will they do a blanket school closure.

khalessi · 15-11-2020 10:25PM

Messi19 wrote: »

There was a chance to limit the spread by extending the midterm to 3 weeks by going a week before and a week after but fudged it. An extended Xmas break could be on if the numbers continue to rise

I would be surprised if they extended Christmas as it would be an admitance that schools are involved in transmission. Public Health consultat Abigail COllhas already said that they are being conservative when it comes to schools and who is a close contacts.

Ventilation seems to be shown to be important in keeping transmission of particles down and so far in my school the windows have been open all day and cases have been low. Now DES has issued guidance suggesting windows can be closed and opened during breaks which personally I think is madness but heyho

DSN · 16-11-2020 12:22AM

Are people seriously saying school being closed for one week at halloween was reason for the drop in cases? I think people in general have got more relaxed & letting their guard down this past couple weeks.

combat14 · 16-11-2020 08:40AM

funerals being blamed for rise in numbers in irish times this morning .. no mention of schools .. yet..

Icyseanfitz · 16-11-2020 09:42AM

DSN wrote: »

Are people seriously saying school being closed for one week at halloween was reason for the drop in cases? I think people in general have got more relaxed & letting their guard down this past couple weeks.

Yes a week with no schools would have impacted the r number due to 1million students not having to travel and attend school.

16-11-2020 09:44AM

combat14 wrote: »

funerals being blamed for rise in numbers in irish times this morning .. no mention of schools .. yet..

There is no rise in numbers. The 5 day average to yesterday is 402.8. The 5 day average to last Sunday was 469.1. There is an apparent rise due to very low numbers Monday and Tuesday. 5 day average also rise last Sunday, before resuming downward trend. The rate of decline is slowing without doubt and will certainly stop and even reverse at some stage. It just hasn't yet

JimmyVik · 16-11-2020 11:21AM

I was talking to a teacher friend. They had no cases since mid-term. And on Saturday the principle was notified of 2 cases.
I think the mid term was like a circuit breaker. Hope it isnt taking hold in schools again after a couple of weeks.

16-11-2020 11:54AM

JimmyVik wrote: »

I was talking to a teacher friend. They had no cases since mid-term. And on Saturday the principle was notified of 2 cases.
I think the mid term was like a circuit breaker. Hope it isnt taking hold in schools again after a couple of weeks.

Such an effective circuit breaker that it actually caused an effect before it was activated

JimmyVik · 16-11-2020 12:10PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Such an effective circuit breaker that it actually caused an effect before it was activated

Well lets see if the numbers stop going down now shall we.
Schools are back what, 2 weeks now. so if cases start emerging in schools again it should be around now.

Thats me · 16-11-2020 12:16PM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

If cases start to rise in the next week it will be an indicator of schools in my opinion, the return after midterm would be impacting numbers from now on.

Why would we need to wait next week? Whole last week cases in 5 to 14 yo age group were only growing starting from 16 new cases 9th of November to 58 cases 13th of November:

On the other hand, it is much more of new cases in other age groups, so it hard to state the virus is spread by schools and pupil has more chances to catch it in home rather in school.

Its only about cases. I do not mean schools should still open over L5 period. They should be closed.

Boggles · 16-11-2020 04:09PM

JP100 wrote: »

So it's Halloween Parties now!!! Before that in no particular order it was the young people, the hospitals, the meat factories, house parties, restaurants/pubs, folk shopping, the border, nursing homes, the holy communions, the GAA celebrations, private households but never ever the schools! Nothing to see there at all, folks! The virus seemingly can't exist in schools. It's great altogether!

You forgot doorbells.

16-11-2020 04:40PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Well lets see if the numbers stop going down now shall we.
Schools are back what, 2 weeks now. so if cases start emerging in schools again it should be around now.

If only it were so simple as schools bad! Cases dropped more rapidly prior to the mid term effect coming on board, and the level of restrictions we have in place now are far less than in the spring, so the effect in reducing the reproduction of the virus is finite. For me, the days I am on-site at work, the place is busier in the past two weeks than at any time since March, and there same goes for many workplaces

16-11-2020 04:50PM

Thats me wrote: »

Why would we need to wait next week? Whole last week cases in 5 to 14 yo age group were only growing starting from 16 new cases 9th of November to 58 cases 13th of November:

On the other hand, it is much more of new cases in other age groups, so it hard to state the virus is spread by schools and pupil has more chances to catch it in home rather in school.

Its only about cases. I do not mean schools should still open over L5 period. They should be closed.

Cases growing in 55-64 year old's too - actually starting before the 5 to 14's

meeeeh · 16-11-2020 04:50PM

Boggles wrote: »

You forgot doorbells.

Well one of our employees is close contact because he spent an afternoon with someone who was tested for Covid and was waiting for result (they are not part of the same household). And some of neighbours have Covid because they celebrated daughter's engagement. Their taste of music is bad enough but add to that their relatives travelling 80km from Dublin for the party and any sympathy I would have left after listening to Brian Adams at 4 in the morning disappears.

However yes it's all due to schools and nothing to do with just everyone breaching rules. Nphet must be lying when they mention funerals and private gatherings.

Boggles · 16-11-2020 05:23PM

meeeeh wrote: »

Well one of our employees is close contact because he spent an afternoon with someone who was tested for Covid and was waiting for result (they are not part of the same household). And some of neighbours have Covid because they celebrated daughter's engagement. Their taste of music is bad enough but add to that their relatives travelling 80km from Dublin for the party and any sympathy I would have left after listening to Brian Adams at 4 in the morning disappears.

However yes it's all due to schools and nothing to do with just everyone breaching rules. Nphet must be lying when they mention funerals and private gatherings.

You'll have to take it up with Leo.

He claimed doorbells.

They’re passing the virus by pressing the doorbell

Thats me · 16-11-2020 05:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Cases growing in 55-64 year old's too - actually starting before the 5 to 14's

... and almost simultaneously with other age groups. So i'd say whenever anybody produced symptoms, theirs contact traced and big cluster of linked contacts revealed. Next day contacts of family member are traced in their school as well and.. Wow! Surprise! We have spike of cases in 5-14yo.

combat14 · 16-11-2020 07:53PM

Dr Glynn points out that along with daily case numbers, five-day averages are also going in the wrong direction.

"The positive trajectory has stalled and as people will be aware, we need to get to a much better place than this by December 1. We were hoping to get to 100 cases a day; we are nowhere near that at the moment."

Dr Glynn says there are two large outbreaks in Limerick, one linked with UHL and another linked with student activity.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/the-positive-trajectory-has-stalled-deputy-cmo-issues-warning-as-five-further-deaths-and-456-new-cases-of-covid-19-confirmed-39753740.html

looks like progress is very slow hopefully things will improve the next 2 weeks or xmas in severe difficulty ..

Vieira82 · 16-11-2020 08:38PM

This is an article from Princeton University in regards to transmission by children and teenagers: https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/09/30/largest-covid-19-contact-tracing-study-date-finds-children-key-spread-evidencejs

combat14 · 16-11-2020 08:50PM

Vieira82 wrote: »

This is an article from Princeton University in regards to transmission by children and teenagers: https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/09/30/largest-covid-19-contact-tracing-study-date-finds-children-key-spread-evidence?fbclid=IwAR0CKH3cXnf-gUDOxCuW8EqmPfvx4Di2Hu3mZ8_wfWeGMjbnvuHXWXxr0js

Largest COVID-19 contact tracing study to date finds children key to spread, evidence of superspreaders

well if this is the case schools need to be shut now

Thats me · 16-11-2020 08:56PM

Vieira82 wrote: »

This is an article from Princeton University in regards to transmission by children and teenagers: https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/09/30/largest-covid-19-contact-tracing-study-date-finds-children-key-spread-evidence

If you not mind, can you remove tracking parameter from the URL: "?fbclid=IwAR0CKH3cXnf-gUDOxCuW8EqmPfvx4Di2Hu3mZ8_wfWeGMjbnvuHXWXxr0js"

And yes, it was considered earlier in this thread:

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1320209842859134977?s=19

New Princeton study indicates children are a factor in spreading the virus

Boggles · 16-11-2020 09:02PM

So they are blaming funerals now?

Why all of a sudden have people decided to go apeshít at funerals?

Seems really strange.

Struggling to divert would be my guess.

Messi19 · 16-11-2020 09:19PM

Boggles wrote: »

So they are blaming funerals now?

Why all of a sudden have people decided to go apeshít at funerals?

Seems really strange.

Struggling to divert would be my guess.

They've pointed the finger at almost everything else that they're down to the bare bones in the blame game

Schools closed until February? (part 3)

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