Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

The_Brood · 15-11-2020 02:40AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is no scientific proof that lockdowns work. It may work if they close everything, have big public buy in and are prepared to cancel Christmas and go through weeks/months of lockdown until cases drop low.

Not sustainable and not gonna happen imo.

Yes but nevermind logic, we are all subjects to God King Emperor Tony Holohan, the Creator of Truth and Lord of Science. When he spits you jump down and lick it off the ground just for the privelage of tasting his holy divine medical righteousness. Never mind what studies and reports around the world are saying, Tony's word is gospel.

So glad we are ok with this and aren't questioning what is supposed to be an elected government.

Antares35 · 15-11-2020 02:42AM

The_Brood wrote: »

Yes but nevermind logic, we are all subjects to God King Emperor Tony Holohan, the Creator of Truth and Lord of Science. When he spits you jump down and lick it off the ground just for the privelage of tasting his holy divine medical righteousness. Never mind what studies and reports around the world are saying, Tony's word is gospel.

So glad we are ok with this and aren't questioning what is supposed to be an elected government.

Do you mean Mícheal? I'd trust Tony over that smug little year head any day

The_Brood · 15-11-2020 02:43AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

The only person I've heard say that was Trump. Make of that as you will.
On the kids and covid, absolutely nobody (except Trump) has said they can't get or transmit covid, nobody has said schools are safe. They have said schools don't seem to drive infections and actually the rate of infection in schoolkids is lower than the general population.

It's about balancing risks and rewards.... close schools and open pubs or open schools and close pubs? It's a very simple choice. Even the hardened alcoholic can see that? I mean off licences are still opened and cheaper than a pub!

The Irish government is before the tv every single night delcaring that children do not get Covid 19. And absolutely no one is challenging them or pointing to the international research showing otherwise. North Korean state media are more critical of their own government.

Wolf359f · 15-11-2020 02:43AM

The_Brood wrote: »

Yes but nevermind logic, we are all subjects to God King Emperor Tony Holohan, the Creator of Truth and Lord of Science. When he spits you jump down and lick it off the ground just for the privelage of tasting his holy divine medical righteousness. Never mind what studies and reports around the world are saying, Tony's word is gospel.

So glad we are ok with this and aren't questioning what is supposed to be an elected government.

Ignoring all the crap you posted, this government is elected (as with every single government we have had, the Dail elects it, not the people, the people elect those who elect the government)

wakka12 · 15-11-2020 02:47AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s a train wreck now watching this. I could have told them myself that lockdown wouldn’t work without everything closed and huge public support.

People are voting to move on. Destroying the economy is a waste of time at this point.

Could you explain a bit how the economy has been 'destroyed'? Just another meaningless soundbite thrown around with no actual supporting argument. Yeh pubs and hospitality have been badly affected, a tiny fraction of a robust economy of a developed couuntry, many aspects of our ecnonomy have found other means of sustaining online and are predicted to bounce back when things return to normality.

In this scenario, ESRI researchers expect to see a strong recovery in 2021 with GDP improving by 6.3% on the back of “robust” growth in expenditure and investment.

“However, both exports and imports are set to grow on a more modest scale than in recent years as the global economy is still set to experience reduced growth rates in the coming year,” the report notes.

https://www.thejournal.ie/pandemic-lockdown-economic-forecast-5226321-Oct2020/
Some good news for you so you can worry about the economy a bit less. But you don't really care that much do you you're basically the other extreme of the 'one covid death is too many' crowd

Wolf359f · 15-11-2020 02:48AM

The_Brood wrote: »

The Irish government is before the tv every single night delcaring that children do not get Covid 19. And absolutely no one is challenging them or pointing to the international research showing otherwise. North Korean state media are more critical of their own government.

I don't know what tv station you're watching, but it's certainly not an Irish one.
Show me a few quotes from the government saying that 2 days in a row and I'll be converted.

Antares35 · 15-11-2020 02:50AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Could you explain a bit how the economy has been 'destroyed'? Just another meaningless soundbite thrown around with no actual supporting argument. Yeh pubs and hospitality have been badly affected, a tiny fraction of a robust economy of a developed couuntry, many aspects of our ecnonomy have found other means of sustaining online and are predicted to bounce back when things return to normality.

https://www.thejournal.ie/pandemic-lockdown-economic-forecast-5226321-Oct2020/
Some good news for you so you can worry about the economy a bit less. But you don't really care that much do you you're basically the other extreme of the 'one covid death is too many' crowd

I read yesterday (sorry no link) that our average household debt has decreased dramatically too, a lot of people have been using lockdown as a chance to clear the debts.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/extra.ie/2020/11/13/business/irish/irish-households-net-worth-central-bank/amp

Edit to add link

Kermit.de.frog · 15-11-2020 02:52AM

Goldman Sachs has released an interesting paper studying the correlation between lowering temperatures with the onset of winter and increasing transmission.

EX1.jpg?itok=-a8WaHaf

The analysis found that cases appeared to wax and wane along with changes in temperature, appearing to resist most efforts to control the virus.

This is very much in keeping with the surge across the northern hemisphere and what was seen in the southern hemisphere through their winter.

EX3_0.jpg?itok=dTdgl8OC

This is, needless to say, deeply worrying from our perspective.

Antares35 · 15-11-2020 02:53AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I don't know what tv station you're watching, but it's certainly not an Irish one.
Show me a few quotes from the government saying that 2 days in a row and I'll be converted.

Oh really? All we've heard is how the pods in schools mean that they are low transmission environments. We went from "kids are super spreaders" in March to "kids don't transmit covid" in September. It must have mutated...

Wolf359f · 15-11-2020 02:58AM

Antares35 wrote: »

Oh really? All we've heard is how the pods in schools mean that they are low transmission environments. We went from "kids are super spreaders" in March to "kids don't transmit covid" in September. It must have mutated...

Low transmission environments is correct. Kids don't transmit covid is your take and the 'Government' who apparently say it 'Daily'.
So show me the government saying every day that schools are safe please.
Or if you have any other evidence otherwise, please post it.

Antares35 · 15-11-2020 03:12AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Low transmission environments is correct. Kids don't transmit covid is your take and the 'Government' who apparently say it 'Daily'.
So show me the government saying every day that schools are safe please.
Or if you have any other evidence otherwise, please post it.

Why do I need to show you the government saying every day that schools are safe?

s1ippy · 15-11-2020 03:22AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Goldman Sachs has released an interesting paper studying the correlation between lowering temperatures with the onset of winter and increasing transmission.

This is very much in keeping with the surge across the northern hemisphere and what was seen in the southern hemisphere through their winter.

This is, needless to say, deeply worrying from our perspective.

I wonder because the UV levels in winter are lower, is outdoor transmission more commonplace. The UV degrades covid. Also the warm air in summer causes faster degradation of the viral particles whereas the cooler air has a preserving effect.

I can't find anything concrete on it but the stories throughout seem to indicate that spread is much more commonplace in cold, dark environments so it would make sense.

440Hertz · 15-11-2020 03:26AM

It would seem far more likely that the issues are people congregating indoors as temperatures drop and it gets wetter, windier and generally less pleasant.

If you take something like eating outside, right now in Ireland that's more or less impossible a lot of days where it's too wet, windy and cold and that's going to get worse until March.

In most of Europe it's far too cold to sit outside from now until spring, varying from unpleasant to downright dangerous if you get into the Nordic areas and Central Europe as it starts to get closer to December. The same applies to most of the continental United States and Canada.

I mean, yeah we'll get a few good days here and there, but the last week for example in Cork has just been completely unpredictable and often persistently raining. Even going for a walk can be a bit off putting at the moment.

Wolf359f · 15-11-2020 03:46AM

Antares35 wrote: »

Why do I need to show you the government saying every day that schools are safe?

Because I don't believe the government has being saying that and I'm calling you out to provide proof to that statement.

eagle eye · 15-11-2020 05:38AM

Wolf359f wrote:

Because I don't believe the government has being saying that and I'm calling you out to provide proof to that statement.

I'll back him up. I've heard it said by the government many times. I've heard Nolan say it's fine too.
I presume that's enough for you?

caveat emptor · 15-11-2020 09:27AM

s1ippy wrote: »

I wonder because the UV levels in winter are lower, is outdoor transmission more commonplace. The UV degrades covid. Also the warm air in summer causes faster degradation of the viral particles whereas the cooler air has a preserving effect.

I can't find anything concrete on it but the stories throughout seem to indicate that spread is much more commonplace in cold, dark environments so it would make sense.

Yeah temperature has a lot to do with it to. But maybe because of its relationship with humidity. I’ve seen papers that explain the mechanics of it. What was interesting is how the virus is more effective in both low and high humidity. Humidity between 45% and 65% is best for reducing it. Cooler temperatures also conducive.

Here outdoor humidity is almost always above that and in winter warm dry indoor rooms could be below that. Before this came along there was a lot of debate about why flu spread in the winter as opposed to summer. With covid and all the research it’s getting clearer.

I’ll try find the paper as not sure on all the details.

Edit: in very dry air the bodies immune system doesn’t work so well (nose throat dry out) so can’t fight back as good.

CruelSummer · 15-11-2020 09:36AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Could you explain a bit how the economy has been 'destroyed'? Just another meaningless soundbite thrown around with no actual supporting argument. Yeh pubs and hospitality have been badly affected, a tiny fraction of a robust economy of a developed couuntry, many aspects of our ecnonomy have found other means of sustaining online and are predicted to bounce back when things return to normality.

https://www.thejournal.ie/pandemic-lockdown-economic-forecast-5226321-Oct2020/
Some good news for you so you can worry about the economy a bit less. But you don't really care that much do you you're basically the other extreme of the 'one covid death is too many' crowd

The amount of job losses coming in 2021 is frightening, anecdotally I’m hearing of many seemingly secure positions, where people can work from home, being cut. You can’t curb activity in an economy long term and expect no consequences. There is going to be a domino affect and companies are doing their 2021 budgets now.
Ireland has been trigger happy with lockdowns, prolonged lockdowns and restrictions - while not really achieving any long term gain from them, this clearly is terrible for jobs, sustainability, etc. This latest needless level 5 is costing us at least at extra billion. Level 3 plus household visit ban would have sufficed in my opinion to see out this wave.

Ireland’s economy is unfortunately far from ‘robust’. It is a small open economy relying heavily on foreign direct investment to function and maintain our standard of living. It is the most affected when a major economic event, eg. 2008 crash, and now Covid takes. place.
On top of this, we’ve allowed NPHET to dominate the airwaves with negativity daily. Holohan statement re ‘concern’ re 14 day case incidence yesterday which is really just about NPHET covering themselves.
I’m astounded by the silence of our Ministers of Finance & Enterprise, they must be in the know about some pot of gold that lives at the end of a rainbow after all.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-11-2020 10:12AM

Belgium reports 197 new deaths.

Russia reports 352 new deaths.

Both new highs in this surge for a Sunday.

In relation to the last poster - the job losses and economic damage happen regardless.

Jinglejangle69 · 15-11-2020 10:28AM

CruelSummer wrote: »

The amount of job losses coming in 2021 is frightening, anecdotally I’m hearing of many seemingly secure positions, where people can work from home, being cut. You can’t curb activity in an economy long term and expect no consequences. There is going to be a domino affect and companies are doing their 2021 budgets now.
Ireland has been trigger happy with lockdowns, prolonged lockdowns and restrictions - while not really achieving any long term gain from them, this clearly is terrible for jobs, sustainability, etc. This latest needless level 5 is costing us at least at extra billion. Level 3 plus household visit ban would have sufficed in my opinion to see out this wave.

Ireland’s economy is unfortunately far from ‘robust’. It is a small open economy relying heavily on foreign direct investment to function and maintain our standard of living. It is the most affected when a major economic event, eg. 2008 crash, and now Covid takes. place.
On top of this, we’ve allowed NPHET to dominate the airwaves with negativity daily. Holohan statement re ‘concern’ re 14 day case incidence yesterday which is really just about NPHET covering themselves.
I’m astounded by the silence of our Ministers of Finance & Enterprise, they must be in the know about some pot of gold that lives at the end of a rainbow after all.

I wonder what will happen when all hhe tech companies realise a lot of the work can be done from home going forward.

Will they up and leave?

I see huge unemployment coming down the line from these lockdowns.

caveat emptor · 15-11-2020 10:41AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

I wonder what will happen when all hhe tech companies realise a lot of the work can be done from home going forward.

Will they up and leave?

I see huge unemployment coming down the line from these lockdowns.

They are here for tax reasons. They do a quid pro quo to create good jobs here as part of the deal. I don't think they'll leave as they route their European profits through here.

Now indigenous business and jobs is a different story. Brexit anyone? Covid is not the only head wind for the indigenous Economy. It's been an issue for years.

Interesting report here. Seems the presence of multinationals can make it even more difficult for some indigenous businesses as they are crowded out essentially.
https://www.esri.ie/system/files?file=media/file-uploads/2018-03/BKMNEXT353.pdf

"Relative to Irish-owned firms, foreign-owned firms are more productive, pay higher wages, invest more in tangible and intangible assets. On average, relative to Irish-owned firms, foreign-owned firms export a larger proportion of their output and import more relative to their output."

15-11-2020 10:59AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Belgium reports 197 new deaths.

Russia reports 352 new deaths.

Both new highs in this surge for a Sunday.

In relation to the last poster - the job losses and economic damage happen regardless.

You think opening business would lead to job losses and the same level of economic damage?

Please explain?

Eod100 · 15-11-2020 11:01AM

The idea of takeaway pints is a bit of a joke tbh. Should just be delivery only and have to be delivered to a home. Otherwise it just turns into people drinking outside like this https://twitter.com/tarafayevents/status/1327743102468165632?s=19

Jim_Hodge · 15-11-2020 11:02AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

I wonder what will happen when all hhe tech companies realise a lot of the work can be done from home going forward.

Will they up and leave?

I see huge unemployment coming down the line from these lockdowns.

Did you think those companies hadn't already been well aware that a substantial proportion of their operations could be done remotely?

15-11-2020 11:03AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Could you explain a bit how the economy has been 'destroyed'? Just another meaningless soundbite thrown around with no actual supporting argument. Yeh pubs and hospitality have been badly affected, a tiny fraction of a robust economy of a developed couuntry, many aspects of our ecnonomy have found other means of sustaining online and are predicted to bounce back when things return to normality.

https://www.thejournal.ie/pandemic-lockdown-economic-forecast-5226321-Oct2020/
Some good news for you so you can worry about the economy a bit less. But you don't really care that much do you you're basically the other extreme of the 'one covid death is too many' crowd

When you go from near 100% employment to 20% unemployed.

When you go from booming to recession.

When you go from having some money aside for Brexit to billions in debt.

That is what I’d call destroyed...

Kermit.de.frog · 15-11-2020 11:07AM

Deleted User wrote: »

When you go from near 100% employment to 20% unemployed.

When you go from booming to recession.

When you go from having some money aside for Brexit to billions in debt.

That is what I’d call destroyed...

It's called a pandemic.

Severe economic problems are inevitable. A lot of people will lose their jobs.

This shouldn't be breaking news.

caveat emptor · 15-11-2020 11:08AM

Deleted User wrote: »

When you go from near 100% employment to 20% unemployed.

When you go from booming to recession.

When you go from having some money aside for Brexit to billions in debt.

That is what I’d call destroyed...

I really think 2020 has been **** but research is pointing towards a strong recovery in 2021. Unemployment isn't 20% according to below. 15% is still horrific but 20% is 25% more than that.

https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/QEC2020AUT_0.pdf

The Irish Economy – Overview

The Irish economy is continuing to struggle with the impacts of COVID-19. As of September 2020, the adjusted unemployment rate was 14.7 per cent compared with 4.9 per cent in February. It is clear that there has been a significant amount of variation across the economy in terms of the impact of the pandemic. While domestic-focused sectors and those operating in arts, entertainment, accommodation and hospitality have suffered severely, certain exporting sectors (in particular medicinal and pharmaceutical activities) have continued to grow in Q2 2020 even during the lockdown.

Based on the relatively strong export performance, we believe the headline GDP figure will now only decline by 1.8 per cent in 2020. However, consumption and investment are likely to witness declines of 9.2 and 17 per cent, respectively, with the unemployment rate set to be over 12.5 per cent by the end of the year.
As well as the ongoing issues due to COVID-19, the Irish economy may also be the subject of additional contractionary pressures in 2021 because of a Disorderly No-Deal Brexit. In the Commentary Bergin and Garcia-Rodriguez examine the potential combination of an adverse Brexit outcome and the ongoing pressures due to COVID-19.

Overall, our assessment is that in the absence of a trade agreement between the EU and the UK, the Irish economy will grow by just 3.3 per cent in 2021. If such an agreement is in place, the domestic economy could grow nearly twice as rapidly at 6.3 per cent.

ACitizenErased · 15-11-2020 11:11AM

New study has found antibodies in people in Italy from September 2019.

We investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD)–specific antibodies in blood samples of 959 asymptomatic individuals enrolled in a prospective lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 to track the date of onset, frequency, and temporal and geographic variations across the Italian regions. SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in 111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals, starting from September 2019 (14%), with a cluster of positive cases (>30%) in the second week of February 2020 and the highest number (53.2%) in Lombardy.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0300891620974755

Thierry12 · 15-11-2020 11:16AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

New study has found antibodies in people in Italy from September 2019.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0300891620974755

Not surprising

Its had to have been around since Sept/Oct to have those scenes in Wuhan in Dec/Jan

We know Covid is slow as **** to ramp up to cause excess deaths

To get those deaths we saw in Wuhan/Lombardy you need to be a sleep at the wheel for a very long time

ACitizenErased · 15-11-2020 11:17AM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Not surprising

Its had to have been around since Sept/Oct to have those scenes in Wuhan in Dec/Jan

We know Covid is slow as **** to ramp up to cause excess deaths

To get those deaths we saw in Wuhan/Lombardy you need to be a sleep at the wheel for a very long time

Agreed, it lines up perfectly with expected exponential growth

wadacrack · 15-11-2020 11:19AM

Keep windows open and masks on. Likely to have a big impact.

https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1327808228089077760

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

Comments