COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Cork2021 · 13-11-2020 11:24PM

hmmm wrote: »

What else did Luke have to say? Also I'm not sure why he seems to be selling bathroom fittings, but I don't watch the LLS myself.

https://twitter.com/annettesphotos/status/1327367754995949572

Basically his contact in Pfizer has said safety data will be released next week and that it is safe and expects EUA from both the fda and ema not long after possibly the first week in December. Reckons similar time line for the moderna vaccine. Didn’t mention anything else. One comment he did make from hopefully by summer 21 we’ll be able to nearly fully relax, also said even if restrictions end there will be a lot of hesitant people and we probably won’t see full stadiums or gigs. Oh and needs at least 70% uptake of the vaccines to bring R0 to near 0.2

stephenjmcd · 13-11-2020 11:42PM

Cork2021 wrote: »

Basically his contact in Pfizer has said safety data will be released next week and that it is safe and expects EUA from both the fda and ema not long after possibly the first week in December. Reckons similar time line for the moderna vaccine. Didn’t mention anything else. One comment he did make from hopefully by summer 21 we’ll be able to nearly fully relax, also said even if restrictions end there will be a lot of hesitant people and we probably won’t see full stadiums or gigs. Oh and needs at least 70% uptake of the vaccines to bring R0 to near 0.2

Can understand people being hesitant at first to go back to a stadium or gig for example. Like everything though slowly people become more comfortable again.

In terms of vaccine, Pfizer had said they expected safety data around next week, good that Moderna doesn't seem to be too far behind either. Looking good to potentially have 3 with EUA for January

Water John · 13-11-2020 11:45PM

Luke said there's five more following those, so eight by the summer.

lbj666 · 14-11-2020 12:29AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Can understand people being hesitant at first to go back to a stadium or gig for example. Like everything though slowly people become more comfortable again.

In terms of vaccine, Pfizer had said they expected safety data around next week, good that Moderna doesn't seem to be too far behind either. Looking good to potentially have 3 with EUA for January

Authorities will be far more hesitant than gig goers, mass gatherings are going to be a very gradually introduced thing.

iguana · 14-11-2020 10:33AM

Cork2021 wrote: »

Oh and needs at least 70% uptake of the vaccines to bring R0 to near 0.2

I've been wondering about the 70% figure. Is that of total population including children? As far as I'm aware at this point only Pfizer/Biontech have tested on children and that's only in the 12-18 age range. So if the vaccine won't be given to pre-pubescent children for quite some time, does that mean we need a much higher proportion of adults to take the vaccine to bring us to 70%?

Cork2021 · 14-11-2020 01:08PM

iguana wrote: »

I've been wondering about the 70% figure. Is that of total population including children? As far as I'm aware at this point only Pfizer/Biontech have tested on children and that's only in the 12-18 age range. So if the vaccine won't be given to pre-pubescent children for quite some time, does that mean we need a much higher proportion of adults to take the vaccine to bring us to 70%?

That’s something I haven’t a clue about. Maybe Hmmzis or Hmmm could answer that one

Water John · 14-11-2020 01:55PM

The famous herd immunity, now it becomes a real factor to be considered with vaccines. I see the 70% but I think I've seen, in relation to other vaccines like 90%.
Would that work out then as 70% uptake multiplied by 90% efficacy, resulting in a true immunity in the population of 63%?
Whilst 90% by 90% would give 81% population immunity.

timsey tiger · 14-11-2020 05:34PM

Water John wrote: »

The famous herd immunity, now it becomes a real factor to be considered with vaccines. I see the 70% but I think I've seen, in relation to other vaccines like 90%.
Would that work out then as 70% uptake multiplied by 90% efficacy, resulting in a true immunity in the population of 63%?
Whilst 90% by 90% would give 81% population immunity.

The inate infectivity of the virus also has to be considered. A virus like measles is super infectious(R0 between 12 and 18), so you need a super high level of immunity (>90%) to stop it spreading through the population. Covid 19 is not in that league at all so a far lower level of immunity is required to suppress it.

odyssey06 · 14-11-2020 06:00PM

iguana wrote: »

I've been wondering about the 70% figure. Is that of total population including children? As far as I'm aware at this point only Pfizer/Biontech have tested on children and that's only in the 12-18 age range. So if the vaccine won't be given to pre-pubescent children for quite some time, does that mean we need a much higher proportion of adults to take the vaccine to bring us to 70%?

Not sure whether previously infected people would help boost the % also?

Water John · 14-11-2020 06:06PM

timsey tiger wrote: »

The inate infectivity of the virus also has to be considered. A virus like measles is super infectious(R0 between 12 and 18), so you need a super high level of immunity (>90%) to stop it spreading through the population. Covid 19 is not in that league at all so a far lower level of immunity is required to suppress it.

Yes should have thought of that aspect.

Thelonious Monk · 14-11-2020 06:07PM

Avian flu now spreading in Belgium. Factory farming and cheap meat and our diets need to change.

ShineOn7 · 14-11-2020 06:08PM

Water John wrote: »

Luke said there's five more following those, so eight by the summer.

I'm allergic to RTE, did they actually have some positivity on last night?

JacksonHeightsOwn · 14-11-2020 06:18PM

timsey tiger wrote: »

The inate infectivity of the virus also has to be considered. A virus like measles is super infectious(R0 between 12 and 18), so you need a super high level of immunity (>90%) to stop it spreading through the population. Covid 19 is not in that league at all so a far lower level of immunity is required to suppress it.

Is measles really more contagious than covid? U didn't know that...

I have a friend who is one of those thick anti vaxxers and in a text exchange with him last night I did say, "how did you cope when you got measles as a kid" in fairness to him, good reply was simply. "well played....... Check mate"

Water John · 14-11-2020 06:27PM

It was good luck that MERS had a low infectivity as it had a 33% mortality. In ways we missed a bullet. Covid 19 could have been a lot worse.

ShineOn7 · 14-11-2020 06:50PM

Whatever happened to the Russia vaccine? After the initial announcement I've seen nothing popping up in the media

Another "we're better than America" lie from Putin?

funnydoggy · 14-11-2020 06:54PM

Water John wrote: »

It was good luck that MERS had a low infectivity as it had a 33% mortality. In ways we missed a bullet. Covid 19 could have been a lot worse.

Am I right in thinking now since the mRNA vaccine seems to be working so well, that scientists can now create a successful MERS vaccine with this tech?

hmmm · 14-11-2020 06:59PM

funnydoggy wrote: »

Am I right in thinking now since the mRNA vaccine seems to be working so well, that scientists can now create a successful MERS vaccine with this tech?

I guess so, that also uses a spike protein. The trouble with something like MERS is so few people get it, the cost of phase 1-3 trials are prohibitive.

I don't think the big countries will allow themselves to get caught out like with Covid again - imagine if this had a 20% fatality rate. I'd say we'll see a few mRNA plants being built which will stand semi-idle unless needed to rapidly build vaccines for new emerging viruses.

funnydoggy · 14-11-2020 07:04PM

hmmm wrote: »

I guess so, that also uses a spike protein. The trouble with something like MERS is so few people get it, the cost of phase 1-3 trials are prohibitive.

I don't think the big countries will allow themselves to get caught out like with Covid again - imagine if this had a 20% fatality rate. I'd say we'll see a few mRNA plants being built which will stand semi-idle unless needed to rapidly build vaccines for new emerging viruses.

I think either way, we hit an absolute milestone in scientific advancement.

Micky 32 · 14-11-2020 08:02PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Avian flu now spreading in Belgium. Factory farming and cheap meat and our diets need to change.

This is a vaccine thread.

ShineOn7 · 14-11-2020 08:04PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Avian flu now spreading in Belgium. Factory farming and cheap meat and our diets need to change.

Sir, this is a Wendy's

daydorunrun · 14-11-2020 08:14PM

Water John wrote: »

It was good luck that MERS had a low infectivity as it had a 33% mortality. In ways we missed a bullet. Covid 19 could have been a lot worse.

I always thought because MERS had a high mortality rate it burned out by killing its host too quickly?

14-11-2020 08:25PM

daydorunrun wrote: »

I always thought because MERS had a high mortality rate it burned out by killing its host too quickly?

MERS big weakness is that it never quite mastered human to human transmission. Certainly not to the extent of of other coronaviruses. A majority of cases are from camel to human.

Deeper Blue · 14-11-2020 08:25PM

daydorunrun wrote: »

I always thought because MERS had a high mortality rate it burned out by killing its host too quickly?

Exactly, isn't the issue with covid that many people aren't that sick or are asymptomatic and therefore tend to get on with things and spread it around

timsey tiger · 14-11-2020 11:19PM

begbysback wrote: »

Don’t worry, I never take financial advice from someone who can’t spell anonymous

Up 13% since I gave you the tip. Pity. :P

pgj2015 · 14-11-2020 11:24PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Whatever happened to the Russia vaccine? After the initial announcement I've seen nothing popping up in the media

Another "we're better than America" lie from Putin?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/nov/02/coronavirus-live-news-who-chief-tedros-in-quarantine-as-global-deaths-near-12m

46 Long · 15-11-2020 05:16AM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Avian flu now spreading in Belgium. Factory farming and cheap meat and our diets need to change.

Except this has nothing to do with factory farming. Three wild birds that stayed in a bird sanctuary in Ostend tested positive for H5N8.

Marhay70 · 15-11-2020 10:44AM

News emerging this morning from the UK that authorities are considering taking action against social media companies which fail to remove anti-vax material from their outlets.
I agree there is no place for it in a thread like this but I wonder if such a move could prove counter productive. I can just hear the narrative now, e.g. "What's to hide ?etc."

Westernworld. · 15-11-2020 10:48AM

Marhay70 wrote: »

News emerging this morning from the UK that authorities are considering taking action against social media companies which fail to remove anti-vax material from their outlets.
I agree there is no place for it in a thread like this but I wonder if such a move could prove counter productive. I can just hear the narrative now, e.g. "What's to hide ?etc."

I think this time the authorities have to act to get a high uptake on the vaccine

Mixed messaging and fake news will drag the % right down if not countered

Deeper Blue · 15-11-2020 02:19PM

Marhay70 wrote: »

News emerging this morning from the UK that authorities are considering taking action against social media companies which fail to remove anti-vax material from their outlets.
I agree there is no place for it in a thread like this but I wonder if such a move could prove counter productive. I can just hear the narrative now, e.g. "What's to hide ?etc."

Good, the anti vaxx morons should have no platform to peddle their rubbish.

Voltex · 15-11-2020 06:57PM

Voltex wrote: »

Sputnik V data looking really good too.
Not sure how they work out 92% efficacy out of 20 confirmed cases though.

https://sputnikvaccine.com/newsroom/pressreleases/the-first-interim-data-analysis-of-the-sputnik-v-vaccine-against-covid-19-phase-iii-clinical-trials-/

Russian vaccine has a efficacy of 92%....

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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