COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

hmmm · 12-11-2020 06:42PM

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

But what is also being said is someone who has recovered from Covid may only see 3 months immunity which is pretty short however the vaccine is going to give people years of immunity? I am trying to understand how the vaccine is going to give a much longer immune response to actually surviving the virus.

We don't know yet how long natural or vaccine-derived immunity will last. There was a concern early on that "mild" Covid infections were not generating longer-term immunity, but I think (I may be wrong) that this is now not considered correct.

The most recent peer-reviewed paper which seemed to have good details on immunity suggest that most people maintain immunity for at least 5 months (the length of the study).
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201028143114.htm

"The vast majority of individuals infected with mild-to-moderate COVID 19 mount a robust antibody response that is relatively stable for at least five months, according to research conducted at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai and published October 28, in the journal Science. Additionally, the research team found that this antibody response correlates with the body’s ability to neutralize (kill) SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. "

CIARAN_BOYLE · 12-11-2020 06:48PM

chrisbonnie wrote: »

Cheaper having a fridge than having no patients/residents.

I think we are more likely to bus people to mass vaccination centres or have a mobile clinic than set up freezers capable of - 80 degrees in the nursing homes.

It's not an either or.

lbj666 · 12-11-2020 06:50PM

Le Bruise wrote: »

But if every person inside the 3 Arena/Aviva has shown that they are either vaccinated/tested negative, then they are no longer super spreader events.

If we wait until we have 80% of the population vaccinated before opening up to crowds, there'll be nothing left for the crowds to go to!

We are running way ahead on our assumptions of how mass vacinations will impact its spread, at least in the early stages before a form of herd immunity develops.

Remember these initial vaccines prevent the disease not kill the virus while they may weaken the chain of spread they wont break the chain straight off. Vacines could lessen the rate of spread given diminished viral load on the carrier, but return to mass gatherings would undo such a positive easily.

Its going to be a really really slow opening of the tap regarding restrictions. Based on how hospital figures deaths, risk in care homes, risk to immuno comprimised and scale of long covid suffers(which will be watched a lot more from now on) are impacted.

ShowMeTheCash · 12-11-2020 06:59PM

hmmm wrote: »

We don't know yet how long natural or vaccine-derived immunity will last. There was a concern early on that "mild" Covid infections were not generating longer-term immunity, but I think (I may be wrong) that this is now not considered correct.

The most recent peer-reviewed paper which seemed to have good details on immunity suggest that most people maintain immunity for at least 5 months (the length of the study).
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201028143114.htm

"The vast majority of individuals infected with mild-to-moderate COVID 19 mount a robust antibody response that is relatively stable for at least five months, according to research conducted at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai and published October 28, in the journal Science. Additionally, the research team found that this antibody response correlates with the body’s ability to neutralize (kill) SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. "

OK - So this exactly where I am at...
I also think in cases where we saw re-infection it was a different strain of covid not the same reinfection of the same strain.

ShowMeTheCash · 12-11-2020 07:06PM

Hmmzis wrote: »

While the study is small, it's very detailed and to the point. The inhibition of germinal centers (GCs) in the majority of natural infections is a rather important finding. Without GCs B cells cannot undergo maturation and cannot differentiate into long lived plasma cells (LLPCs). LLPCs are the ones that migrate to the bone marrow and provide a constant flow of background of antibodies. While an extrafollicular response does give you the same T cells and memory B cells, for them to become active an anamnestic response is required and that can only be triggered by infected cells.

Yeah this I understand but this study is a mapping natural immune response not vaccine immune response.

Hmmzis wrote: »

As to the estimates for how long vaccine induced protection might last, as I said, there are 'finger in the air' estimates in news articles. We'll only be able to tell for sure in time.

And this is where I am at, I was trying to understand how the finger in the air was saying things like 1 - 3 years and would not require a yearly vaccine but on the same hand say natural immunity is very short.

Hmmzis wrote: »

Btw. On HPV and HSVs, not sure where you have read that they persist in the bran. They persist in mostly in epithelial cells and their persistence is down to things like inhibition of TLRs, antigen presentation and interferons (among a myriad of other things), they're fascinating little bastards.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180315093824.htm

Well technically nerve cells but the majory of nerve cells are going to reside in the brain and spine.

Russman · 12-11-2020 08:11PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I think we are more likely to bus people to mass vaccination centres or have a mobile clinic than set up freezers capable of - 80 degrees in the nursing homes.

It's not an either or.

I was thinking about this earlier, and I’m not being funny when I say this, but the logistics of bussing any group of people while still maintaining social distancing could be very hard to overcome.
I appreciate they’d be on their way to get vaccinated, but could we really see full busses anytime soon ?
I’m not sure what the best answer is tbh - glad I’m not in logistics !

is_that_so · 12-11-2020 08:40PM

A study on the possible seasonal effects on our immune system, not Vitamin D related.

Although recent studies have hinted that there may be seasonal or daily “circadian” rhythms in our immune function, this hadn’t been confirmed in large numbers of people until now.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/nov/12/seasonal-rhythms-within-immune-systems-may-explain-infection-rates-study

Hmmzis · 12-11-2020 09:34PM

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

Yeah this I understand but this study is a mapping natural immune response not vaccine immune response.

Well, vaccines are supposes to induce GC creation if designed and dosed right (the complete oposite what the virus is doing).

And this is where I am at, I was trying to understand how the finger in the air was saying things like 1 - 3 years and would not require a yearly vaccine but on the same hand say natural immunity is very short.

That's most likely based off some observations they've done following up phase 1/2 participants and maybe some known models that look like a decent fit? Good enough for finger in the air tuff.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180315093824.htm

Well technically nerve cells but the majory of nerve cells are going to reside in the brain and spine.

As the article states, sensory neurons, that's very far from the brain. It's a very informative article, thank for posting it.

tobefrank321 · 12-11-2020 09:52PM

If you intend to use the vaccine within 5 days there's no need for ULT. There is no reason why nursing homes or mobile units should need ULT.

ULT will be more a requirement for distribution centres.

Nursing homes, GPs or pharmacies will be more concerned about 5 days at normal refrigeration. Hopefully the HSE will communicate to them clearly this requirement.

iguana · 12-11-2020 10:18PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The odd thing is the same people who are against a vaccine are also against restrictions. But without a vaccine, restrictions are here indefinitely.

I know a number of people in real life who are anti-vaxx and was curious as this started how they would react to the coming vaccine. Most, not all but most, have decided the virus isn't real and/or* at least doesn't pose a real threat and/or* was created by big pharma and it's all a trick to make us take the vaccine. They know that living through a novel virus exposes just how disgustingly selfish the anti-vaxx position is and instead of doing a bit of introspection about how their stance effects others, are choosing to pretend that it's not happening.

*That's an 'and/or' because most of them seem to simultaneously believe completely conflicting explanations.

Gael23 · 12-11-2020 10:47PM

lbj666 wrote: »

Its going to be a really really slow opening of the tap regarding restrictions. Based on how hospital figures deaths, risk in care homes, risk to immuno comprimised and scale of long covid suffers(which will be watched a lot more from now on) are impacted.

Why should it be once the most vulnerable are vaccinated?

timsey tiger · 12-11-2020 10:59PM

Voltex wrote: »

Sputnik V data looking really good too.
Not sure how they work out 92% efficacy out of 20 confirmed cases though.

https://sputnikvaccine.com/newsroom/pressreleases/the-first-interim-data-analysis-of-the-sputnik-v-vaccine-against-covid-19-phase-iii-clinical-trials-/

I'm not sure where I heard it, but I seem to remember that their trial is split 75:25 vaccine:placebo.

If this is so, then 4:16 split of the cases would give approx 92% all other things being even.

Russman · 12-11-2020 11:07PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Why should it be once the most vulnerable are vaccinated?

Possibly the number of non vulnerable getting very sick might still pose a risk to the health service maybe ? Just a guess, I don’t know.

plodder · 12-11-2020 11:08PM

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/12/business/pfizer-covid-vaccine-coronavirus.html

Article about Pfizer's distribution plan. Suitcase sized re-usable containers containing up to 5,000 doses with GPS and temperature sensors (monitored by Pfizer) and packed with dry-ice ....

Once the Pfizer coolers reach their destinations, hospitals or pharmacies will have a few choices of how to store the vaccine. The easiest option is using ultracold freezers, but not many sites have them. Otherwise, the facilities can stash the trays in conventional freezers for up to five days. Or they can keep the vials in the cooler for up to 15 days, so long as they replenish the dry ice and don’t open it more than twice a day.

Replenishing dry ice doesn't sound that practical to me. You'd imagine a single transport container sized freezer would be enough to keep a supply for the whole country as long as necessary.

lbj666 · 12-11-2020 11:59PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Why should it be once the most vulnerable are vaccinated?

We dont know what 90% efficacy means on the vulnerable. Is it the same? Do 10% still get the full whack or a diminished version of the disease.
You would hope its a far better improvement on deaths than just a 90% reduction, the death/case among +65 is improving to 10% at the minute (was worse). 1% mortality/case among +65 would still be frightening, especially if everyone around them is going to be moving around and exposed all lot more.

As i say its going to be a very very slow opening of the floodgates and it will be a wait and see from authorities. Mass gatherings are no where near their radar at the minute.

EDIT: not to be a total doom monger Mr. BioNTech is making some very bold predictions
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/12/scientist-behind-biontech-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-says-it-can-end-pandemic

Westernworld. · 13-11-2020 01:22AM

I have my own vaccine and it's working well

Bleach ,Tequila, THC ,Syrup of Figs and a mystery ingredient

Goldengirl · 13-11-2020 03:44AM

Westernworld. wrote: »

I have my own vaccine and it's working well

Bleach ,Tequila, THC ,Syrup of Figs and a mystery ingredient

Sun !

is_that_so · 13-11-2020 08:33AM

There is a piece in New Scientist which suggests that mRNA vaccines may be stable in a fridge for 3 months and may not need -70C storage. As it's a subscriber article there are very few details to read but no doubt it will emerge elsewhere.

There may be no need to keep the Pfizer vaccine and other similar coronavirus vaccines at -70°C, potentially making it much easier to distribute them across the world. Two other teams using the same mRNA technology for their vaccines have found they remain stable for at least three months in a normal fridge.

Link
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2259821-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-may-not-need-to-be-kept-at-70c-after-all/

Irish Stones · 13-11-2020 09:20AM

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

This may have been covered somewhere else in the thread but I will ask it anyways. So it has been said having covid does not seem to give long term immunity could be as low as 3 months and maybe none at all if a completely different strain of covid.

A scientific article linked some pages back in this thread suggests that immunity from the virus could last even 2 years.

Irish Stones · 13-11-2020 09:24AM

charlie14 wrote: »

From memory I seem to recall that one country (U.K.?) were proposing to use vets to administer these vaccines upon roll-out.

Isn't using vets for human purposes and the other way round illegal?
I am totally sure that a vet can't even give you a patch if you get scratched in their practice (this is absolutely true in my country, for instance, but it may probably be true elsewhere too).

Irish Stones · 13-11-2020 09:28AM

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

"Sinopharm said it anticipates the antibodies from its jab to last between one and three years—although the final result will only be known after the trials."

Genuine question:

How can they say the antibodies last 3 years if the 3 years haven't gone by yet?
Is there some kind of algorithm that sees the trend in the decay of them in the system?

Irish Stones · 13-11-2020 09:36AM

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

But what is also being said is someone who has recovered from Covid may only see 3 months immunity which is pretty short however the vaccine is going to give people years of immunity?

I don't think that immunity from Covid only lasts 3 months or so.
If it was this way, lots of people, included me, would have contracted the virus again now, because I got out of it 7 months ago.
And I'm potentially daily exposed to the virus, as is my wife, and none of us two has got the virus again in these last 7 months.
My wife gets tested regularly, and she's been fine so far, as are all her workmates and colleagues.

Hmmzis · 13-11-2020 10:40AM

On the treatment side of things:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30511-7/fulltext

Looks like there is a significant improvement with inhalable interferon (79% reduction of severe disease or death and overall ~50% faster recovery). It's interesting that it works even when administered relatively late after symptom onset, 10 days post symptom onset and continued for 14 days thereafter.

daydorunrun · 13-11-2020 11:27AM

Hmmzis wrote: »

On the treatment side of things:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30511-7/fulltext

Looks like there is a significant improvement with inhalable interferon (79% reduction of severe disease or death and overall ~50% faster recovery). It's interesting that it works even when administered relatively late after symptom onset, 10 days post symptom onset and continued for 14 days thereafter.

To my non expert mind that's nearly as good a piece of news as this weeks vaccine news!

The more tools in the fight the better.

is_that_so · 13-11-2020 12:03PM

This study looks at the use of llama nanobodies, which have been mentioned before. It's a virus killer and potentially a very powerful therapeutic aid, according to this.

Researchers at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine describe a new method to extract tiny but extremely powerful SARS-CoV-2 antibody fragments from llamas, which could be fashioned into inhalable therapeutics with the potential to prevent and treat COVID-19.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/11/201105183805.htm

funnydoggy · 13-11-2020 12:05PM

I'm seeing the word "rushed" an awful lot lately. When you try to explain things back, people don't listen.

It worries me that we won't have enough vaccinated to hit the herd immunity threshold. I know once the most vulnerable are vaccinated it isn't a HUGE cause for concern but still..

ShineOn7 · 13-11-2020 12:08PM

Hmmzis wrote: »

On the treatment side of things:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30511-7/fulltext

Looks like there is a significant improvement with inhalable interferon (79% reduction of severe disease or death and overall ~50% faster recovery). It's interesting that it works even when administered relatively late after symptom onset, 10 days post symptom onset and continued for 14 days thereafter.

Is this in Irish hospitals yet or will it be soon?

is_that_so · 13-11-2020 12:08PM

funnydoggy wrote: »

I'm seeing the word "rushed" an awful lot lately. When you try to explain things back, people don't listen.

It worries me that we won't have enough vaccinated to hit the herd immunity threshold. I know once the most vulnerable are vaccinated it isn't a HUGE cause for concern but still..

As one of the UK heads pointed out about clinical trials, it's often about getting the money, something which can really delay phases. They also have high levels of virus prevalence to test against.

is_that_so · 13-11-2020 12:10PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Is this in Irish hospitals yet or will it be soon?

It's still a trial - out of the University of Southampton. Next I believe is Phase III. IIRC this Phase II started in July.

funnydoggy · 13-11-2020 12:16PM

is_that_so wrote: »

As one of the UK heads pointed out about clinical trials, it's often about getting the money, something which can really delay phases. They also have high levels of virus prevalence to test against.

Oh definitely. I know all about it but the people I try to discuss it with don't, and many are just unwilling to listen. Frustrating!

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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