COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Hmmzis

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

This may have been covered somewhere else in the thread but I will ask it anyways. So it has been said having covid does not seem to give long term immunity could be as low as 3 months and maybe none at all if a completely different strain of covid.


So my understanding of immunity is that vaccines and or getting a virus can give either short term immunity or long term immunity.


How is the vaccine going to be different?


I have heard it be said with a vaccines you may continuously need to get a "booster" so what is the plan? everyone gets a covid shot 3 or 4 times a year?

The viral infection can abrogate or diminish the part of the immune response that is responsible for giving you long term protection from infection. The vaccine construct is meant to do the exact opposite, it tries to stimulate that part of the immune system as best it can. Some early 'finger in the air' estimates are putting the vaccine induced protection around the 1-3 year marker, with a subsequent booster that might become much longer (see HPV vaccine).

ShowMeTheCash

Hmmzis wrote: »

The viral infection can abrogate or diminish the part of the immune response that is responsible for giving you long term protection from infection. The vaccine construct is meant to do the exact opposite, it tries to stimulate that part of the immune system as best it can. Some early 'finger in the air' estimates are putting the vaccine induced protection around the 1-3 year marker, with a subsequent booster that might become much longer (see HPV vaccine).

Is there any links to this?
My understanding albeit it limited is that natural infeciton immunity almost always gives better immunity than vaccines. I have listened to a few people talk on this and I just keep hearing they don't know how long a vaccine immunity will last.


Common cold vaccines they reckon are pointless due to how short the vaccine immunity would last that and there are 140+ different cold viruses.


Flu has a very fast mutation turn around so flu shots are given annually.



I am trying to find information just on what you are saying that a vaccine will be better than natural infection immunity which is what you are saying.

Water John

Some may think its a daft one but 100s of dairy farmers have liquid nitrogen thermos flasks for storing semen straws. The AI companies like Dovea or Munster Bovine could easily store the vaccine regionally IWT.

AssetBacked2

Deleted User wrote: »

Literally the first one - consent. You can consent to them processing the data that confirms your vaccinated status for the purpose of attending an event. Otherwise you don't attend the event.

They do not need to store the data for anything other than the purpose of a single event so it can be deleted immediately after.

Glastonbury put your photo on your ticket, ie you consent when purchasing to provide a photo that will be used to allow you access. The same could apply here, when purchasing a ticket for an event, you consent to providing confirmation of your vaccination status.

The first reason is consent "except where Union or Member State law provide that the prohibition referred to in paragraph 1 may not be lifted by the data subject". I'm quite sure there is member state law, if not EU law, which protects people from being discriminated against in certain contexts as a result of their health status.

For example; Why stop at covid? Why not also include STDs at events like Glastonbury then? You need to see the wood from the trees. There is no compelling reason to justify this type of personal data harvesting just because of covid. Additionally, where does it end; supermarkets? Public transport? Going in to your office?

charlie14

Water John wrote: »

Some may think its a daft one but 100s of dairy farmers have liquid nitrogen thermos flasks for storing semen straws. The AI companies like Dovea or Munster Bovine could easily store the vaccine regionally IWT.

Not that daft imo. Many veterinarians also carry liquid nitrogen. From memory I seem to recall that one country (U.K.?) were proposing to use vets to administer these vaccines upon roll-out.

Hmmzis

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

Is there any links to this?
My understanding albeit it limited is that natural infeciton immunity almost always gives better immunity than vaccines. I have listened to a few people talk on this and I just keep hearing they don't know how long a vaccine immunity will last.

That is categorically wrong. Best examples are rabies and HPV, our immune systems can't fight those viruses at all, but we have excellent vaccines against them. In case of SARS-cov-2 this would be the best paper describing the reasons for the decaying antibody levels in most people:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867420314586

Common cold vaccines they reckon are pointless due to how short the vaccine immunity would last that and there are 140+ different cold viruses.

There are probably way more than 200 viruses that cause common cold symptoms. Very little research has been done on vaccines against those viruses, so there is no way of telling how long the protection would last.

Flu has a very fast mutation turn around so flu shots are given annually.

Correct. Luckily for us all SARS-cov-2 changes at a much slower pace.

I am trying to find information just on what you are saying that a vaccine will be better than natural infection immunity which is what you are saying.

It's stated mostly in various news articles, like this one:
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-china-covid-vaccines.html

ShowMeTheCash

Hmmzis wrote: »

That is categorically wrong. Best examples are rabies and HPV, our immune systems can't fight those viruses at all, but we have excellent vaccines against them. In case of SARS-cov-2 this would be the best paper describing the reasons for the decaying antibody levels in most people:

OK I think we are confusing too many different things here.
So firstly this is not categorically wrong its mostly correct try googling it.


https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety/immune-system-and-health



https://www.empr.com/home/features/is-natural-infection-better-at-inducing-immunity/



It is not correct in all cases and there are cases where vaccines prove to give a more targeted and longer lasting immunity.


Rabis is a bad example as there is no natural immunity, you get rabis you die.

HPV and things like Herpes can lay dormant in the brain, the immune system is smart enough not to go killing brain cells. What you seem to be conflating is the price for natural immunity vs taking the vaccine which totally make sense as risk of severe illess and or death is a real thing.



If you had chickenpox or measles however taking a vaccine after the fact is probably pointless.

Hmmzis wrote: »

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867420314586

OK so this is exactly what I am looking for, thanks!

eigrod

Dr Fauci remains positive

https://twitter.com/abc/status/1326872135470604291?s=21

plodder

Water John wrote: »

Some may think its a daft one but 100s of dairy farmers have liquid nitrogen thermos flasks for storing semen straws. The AI companies like Dovea or Munster Bovine could easily store the vaccine regionally IWT.

I imagine the technology is not that complicated, but it has to be done to the right standards. Liquid nitrogen is a lot colder than -80ºC and maybe too cold? Not sure. Wouldn't want to be mixing up the semen with the vaccine shots either. Though some of the antivax crowd might prefer a shot of that :pac:

tobefrank321

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

The first reason is consent "except where Union or Member State law provide that the prohibition referred to in paragraph 1 may not be lifted by the data subject". I'm quite sure there is member state law, if not EU law, which protects people from being discriminated against in certain contexts as a result of their health status.

For example; Why stop at covid? Why not also include STDs at events like Glastonbury then? You need to see the wood from the trees. There is no compelling reason to justify this type of personal data harvesting just because of covid. Additionally, where does it end; supermarkets? Public transport? Going in to your office?

You can forget about crowds at concerts, football matches, etc until at least enough people for herd immunity are vaccinated. There's going to be no restrictions lifted on those events until that happens. The more people vaccinated the sooner we get back to normal.

A large indoor concert in the 3 Arena for example would be a massive superspreader event if at least 50% aren't vaccinated.

Even a 90% effective vaccine means 10% are not vaccinated which in the vulnerable group alone is a lot of people. They will depend on herd immunity.

The vaccine is not a silver bullet. Its going to reduce hospitalisations and the like rather than eliminate them altogether. Only when something like 80% are vaccinated will full normality return.

ShowMeTheCash

Hmmzis wrote: »

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867420314586

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-china-covid-vaccines.html

OK now that I have had time to read this. They do not provide the information alebit I do not think we have this information yet.



The first link is really a study on natural immunity where it plots people fast healers and slow healers in terms of immunity decay which is interesting. But the study is pretty small.



The second link just says:


"Sinopharm said it anticipates the antibodies from its jab to last between one and three years—although the final result will only be known after the trials."


So we don't know yet it seems!

Le Bruise

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You can forget about crowds at concerts, football matches, etc until at least enough people for herd immunity are vaccinated. There's going to be no restrictions lifted on those events until that happens. The more people vaccinated the sooner we get back to normal.

A large indoor concert in the 3 Arena for example would be a massive superspreader event if at least 50% aren't vaccinated.

Even a 90% effective vaccine means 10% are not vaccinated which in the vulnerable group alone is a lot of people. They will depend on herd immunity.

The vaccine is not a silver bullet. Its going to reduce hospitalisations and the like rather than eliminate them altogether. Only when something like 80% are vaccinated will full normality return.

But if every person inside the 3 Arena/Aviva has shown that they are either vaccinated/tested negative, then they are no longer super spreader events.

If we wait until we have 80% of the population vaccinated before opening up to crowds, there'll be nothing left for the crowds to go to!

tobefrank321

Not sure a mobile vaccination unit for nursing homes would work as such units would probably only get through 2 or 3 nursing homes a day.

Really you'd want nursing homes with the right refrigeration capabilities and staff trained to administer the vaccine or else a local GP or pharmacist trained. And specifically trained in the refrigeration element as without that the vaccine could be useless.

tobefrank321

Le Bruise wrote: »

But if every person inside the 3 Arena/Aviva has shown that they are either vaccinated/tested negative, then they are no longer super spreader events.

If we wait until we have 80% of the population vaccinated before opening up to crowds, there'll be nothing left for the crowds to go to!

I agree. Those who are vaccinated should be allowed go about their daily lives. Anti Vaxxers should not be allowed benefit fully from herd immunity while avoiding a vaccine, which is what they always do.

As for those testing negative, the only way to do that is test everyone before a concert - logistical nightmare.

Gael23

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Not sure a mobile vaccination unit for nursing homes would work as such units would probably only get through 2 or 3 nursing homes a day.

Really you'd want nursing homes with the right refrigeration capabilities and staff trained to administer the vaccine or else a local GP or pharmacist trained. And specifically trained in the refrigeration element as without that the vaccine could be useless.

Could the staff nurse on duty do it?

tobefrank321

Gael23 wrote: »

Could the staff nurse on duty do it?

With the right training probably.

Spudman_20000

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I agree. Those who are vaccinated should be allowed go about their daily lives. Anti Vaxxers should not be allowed benefit fully from herd immunity while avoiding a vaccine, which is what they always do.

Didn't we recently have a referendum in this country in which one of the cornerstones in favour of it was body autonomy?

There isn't even great uptake of the flu vaccine within healthcare workers. They must all be anti vaxxers too I guess. Good luck forcing a vaccine on people.

ShowMeTheCash

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I agree. Those who are vaccinated should be allowed go about their daily lives. Anti Vaxxers should not be allowed benefit fully from herd immunity while avoiding a vaccine, which is what they always do.

As for those testing negative, the only way to do that is test everyone before a concert - logistical nightmare.

I do not think these metrics are going to work without know how long a vaccine is going to last even if we take what is being said 1 - 3 years.


Lets take the lower figure - A vaccine for covid is probably going to be more akin to a flu shot that might give immunity for 12 months only so every year you have the job of knowing who is vaccinated I do not see a silver bullet on the cards.

tobefrank321

Spudman_20000 wrote: »

Didn't we recently have a referendum in this country in which one of the cornerstones in favour of it was body autonomy?

There isn't even great uptake of the flu vaccine within healthcare workers. They must all be anti vaxxers too I guess. Good luck forcing a vaccine on people.

Different scenario altogether.

The odd thing is the same people who are against a vaccine are also against restrictions. But without a vaccine, restrictions are here indefinitely.

CIARAN_BOYLE

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Not sure a mobile vaccination unit for nursing homes would work as such units would probably only get through 2 or 3 nursing homes a day.

Really you'd want nursing homes with the right refrigeration capabilities and staff trained to administer the vaccine or else a local GP or pharmacist trained. And specifically trained in the refrigeration element as without that the vaccine could be useless.

Not sure the state would want to pay for the right refrigeration capabilities in every nursing home. Some are very small for what would be a very expensive piece of kit.

JacksonHeightsOwn

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Not sure the state would want to pay for the right refrigeration capabilities in every nursing home. Some are very small for what would be a very expensive piece of kit.

Cheaper having a fridge than having no patients/residents.

polesheep

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

I do not think these metrics are going to work without know how long a vaccine is going to last even if we take what is being said 1 - 3 years.


Lets take the lower figure - A vaccine for covid is probably going to be more akin to a flu shot that might give immunity for 12 months only so every year you have the job of knowing who is vaccinated I do not see a silver bullet on the cards.

Does it have to be a silver bullet? If vulnerable people have to be vaccinated every year that's no big deal. Most of them already get the flu vaccine yearly.

ShowMeTheCash

polesheep wrote: »

Does it have to be a silver bullet? If vulnerable people have to be vaccinated every year that's no big deal. Most of them already get the flu vaccine yearly.

They do which is fine but we don't have herd immunity for flu we have flu season.


This was more aimed at the comment

tobefrank321 wrote:

Only when something like 80% are vaccinated will full normality return.

But this is not that simple 80% vaccination rate at all times? Which would mean this is not just about getting 80% of the country vaccinated but keeping 80% of the country vaccinated.

polesheep

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

They do which is fine but we don't have herd immunity for flu we have flu season.


This was more aimed at the comment





But this is not that simple 80% vaccination rate at all times? Which would mean this is not just about getting 80% of the country vaccinated but keeping 80% of the country vaccinated.

Apologies, I didn't see that.

hmmm

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

My understanding albeit it limited is that natural infeciton immunity almost always gives better immunity than vaccines. I have listened to a few people talk on this and I just keep hearing they don't know how long a vaccine immunity will last.

Those are two different questions.

The current front-running vaccines are producing immune responses at least as strong as "natural" infections, if not better.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32137-1/fulltext

Pfizer: "At day 21 after the first vaccine dose, geometric mean titres of RBD-specific IgG were measurable, ranging from 534 U/mL to 1778 U/mL, and were similar to, or more than, those observed in a human convalescent serum panel. "

Oxford: "Humoral immune outcomes in vaccine recipients were similar to those observed in convalescent plasma from patients who had recovered from COVID-19."

Moderna: "These humoral immune responses were similar to those observed in convalescent plasma from patients who had recovered from COVID-19. "

Gamaleya (Russia): "with RBD ELISA titres and neutralising antibody titres equal to or more than titres observed in convalescent plasma from patients who had recovered from COVID-19. "

hmmm

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

But this is not that simple 80% vaccination rate at all times? Which would mean this is not just about getting 80% of the country vaccinated but keeping 80% of the country vaccinated.

Curevac's CEO was interviewed this morning and he said that he didn't think it would require an annual vaccination.

We have lots of vaccine candidates, even if we have to get a top-up every few years it's not going to be a problem. The problem is getting that initial level of control, and after that outbreaks can be managed.

Sconsey

Interesting interview here around the complexity of maintaining the cold-chain for vaccine distribution. It's going to be difficult to do (and probalbly expensive) but it is doable...

https://twitter.com/jchatterleyCNN/status/1326642131327475713

ShowMeTheCash

hmmm wrote: »

Those are two different questions.

The current front-running vaccines are producing immune responses at least as strong as "natural" infections, if not better.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32137-1/fulltext

Pfizer: "At day 21 after the first vaccine dose, geometric mean titres of RBD-specific IgG were measurable, ranging from 534 U/mL to 1778 U/mL, and were similar to, or more than, those observed in a human convalescent serum panel. "

Oxford: "Humoral immune outcomes in vaccine recipients were similar to those observed in convalescent plasma from patients who had recovered from COVID-19."

Moderna: "These humoral immune responses were similar to those observed in convalescent plasma from patients who had recovered from COVID-19. "

Gamaleya (Russia): "with RBD ELISA titres and neutralising antibody titres equal to or more than titres observed in convalescent plasma from patients who had recovered from COVID-19. "

So this bring me full circle to my orginal question.
What is being said above it that in vaccine recipients were similar to those observed in patients that have recovered from covid. - OK



But what is also being said is someone who has recovered from Covid may only see 3 months immunity which is pretty short however the vaccine is going to give people years of immunity? I am trying to understand how the vaccine is going to give a much longer immune response to actually surviving the virus.

Miike

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Not sure a mobile vaccination unit for nursing homes would work as such units would probably only get through 2 or 3 nursing homes a day.

Really you'd want nursing homes with the right refrigeration capabilities and staff trained to administer the vaccine or else a local GP or pharmacist trained. And specifically trained in the refrigeration element as without that the vaccine could be useless.

You want every nursing home to have an ULT freezer to deliver a COVID19 vaccine? The vaccine has a shelf life at standard refrigeration temperatures. We would need to store in it hubs at ultra-low temperatures and transport it in ice boxes, not have ultra-low temperature units onsite for every nursing home.

The problem, as I see it, comes if there is a breakdown in the cold-chain process and what redundancies we can build in to prevent stock from becoming spoiled in the event an ULT unit failed (either in storage or transport to larger storage units)

Nurses, GP's, Pharmacists etc are already trained in cold-chain processes.

Hmmzis

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

OK now that I have had time to read this. They do not provide the information alebit I do not think we have this information yet.



The first link is really a study on natural immunity where it plots people fast healers and slow healers in terms of immunity decay which is interesting. But the study is pretty small.



The second link just says:


"Sinopharm said it anticipates the antibodies from its jab to last between one and three years—although the final result will only be known after the trials."


So we don't know yet it seems!

While the study is small, it's very detailed and to the point. The inhibition of germinal centers (GCs) in the majority of natural infections is a rather important finding. Without GCs B cells cannot undergo maturation and cannot differentiate into long lived plasma cells (LLPCs). LLPCs are the ones that migrate to the bone marrow and provide a constant flow of background of antibodies. While an extrafollicular response does give you the same T cells and memory B cells, for them to become active an anamnestic response is required and that can only be triggered by infected cells.

As to the estimates for how long vaccine induced protection might last, as I said, there are 'finger in the air' estimates in news articles. We'll only be able to tell for sure in time.


Btw. On HPV and HSVs, not sure where you have read that they persist in the bran. They persist in mostly in epithelial cells and their persistence is down to things like inhibition of TLRs, antigen presentation and interferons (among a myriad of other things), they're fascinating little bastards.