COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

12-11-2020 09:29AM

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-has-completed-case-accrual-first-planned-interim

Moderna just announced they've accrued enough cases to perform interim analysis. So we can expect some data from them within the next few days.

Irish Stones · 12-11-2020 09:35AM

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

Remember when Italy was all over the news headlines when **** hit the fan? Now you wouldn't see many headlines about them. Why not continue to pump Italy since it was such a big deal at the beginning?

The greatest mistake the world did in March was to focus on what Italy was doing and how they were trying to fight this crisis.
At first, Italy was seen as a plague spreader (probably rightfully), then as a model to follow (totally crazy, who would follow a plague spreader), then it was forgotten altogether (the right choice, since the situation in Italy is totally out of control now, even if they are admitting the opposite).
After all, Italy has never been known as an example for efficiency. It's much better to leave it where it is, only an insane would follow its wake

hmmm · 12-11-2020 09:39AM

A small bit more on Moderna

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1326636739117592584

Gael23 · 12-11-2020 09:50AM

Looks like Moderna have still a way to go before they can seek approval

is_that_so · 12-11-2020 09:55AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

The greatest mistake the world did in March was to focus on what Italy was doing and how they were trying to fight this crisis.
At first, Italy was seen as a plague spreader (probably rightfully), then as a model to follow (totally crazy, who would follow a plague spreader), then it was forgotten altogether (the right choice, since the situation in Italy is totally out of control now, even if they are admitting the opposite).
After all, Italy has never been known as an example for efficiency. It's much better to leave it where it is, only an insane would follow its wake

I don't think we ever considered Italy as an example, more of a warning of a worst case scenario. By the time they acted it was already spreading rapidly. Other countries worked to avoid that scenario by responding a lot more quickly.

Irish Stones · 12-11-2020 10:09AM

is_that_so wrote: »

I don't think we ever considered Italy as an example, more of a warning of a worst case scenario. By the time they acted it was already spreading rapidly. Other countries worked to avoid that scenario by responding a lot more quickly.

A few links, among many

https://www.theregreview.org/2020/04/23/nicola-exporting-italian-model-fight-covid-19/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-reopening.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/from-a-global-pariah-to-a-model-how-italy-turned-around-its-coronavirus-calamity/articleshow/77312587.cms

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2020/03/11/coronavirus-who-praises-italy-as-it-declares-pandemic_15477ab6-7116-4361-8168-08159471d30f.html

These are real webpages, I didn't make them up

But there are many reasons not to follow us along this path, though.

12-11-2020 10:10AM

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

Not sure how that would work with GDPR in Europe though as this data would constitute special cateogires of data.

It's a bit too Orwellian in any event so presumably will get a big fat no from the public like that nonsensical Health Passport Ireland rubbish which utterly bombed when announced a few weeks ago.

To get a job in a bank, civil service etc before the TB vaccine became available you had to provide chest x-rays and other medical records to prove that you didn't have TB.
The fact that the vaccine was included in the schedule for all children once it became available and it drastically reduced the incident rate, is the reason that you still don't have to.

A lot of jobs still require candidates to declare if they have any medical conditions that would impact on their ability to perform their role and some roles require a medical to be completed. You also have to provide a certificate for any medical related absence as to why you were unfit to attend.

Ashleigh1986 · 12-11-2020 10:24AM

is_that_so wrote: »

I don't think we ever considered Italy as an example, more of a warning of a worst case scenario. By the time they acted it was already spreading rapidly. Other countries worked to avoid that scenario by responding a lot more quickly.

No but the worlds media especially sky news certainly used the footage from Italy ( remember the coverage of the army trucks with the coffins on the back of them ) to get their message out there .
We were told in Ireland that what happened in Italy was going to happen here .
The fear of God was put into the Irish public and 8 months later it still remains with a lot of people .
The media have played their part in this .
There's a saying ... " the pen is mightier than the sword " .
I wonder what would be the modern equivalent to that regarding media and especially social media .
" the Internet is mightier than the bomb "

is_that_so · 12-11-2020 10:24AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

A few links, among many

https://www.theregreview.org/2020/04/23/nicola-exporting-italian-model-fight-covid-19/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-reopening.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/from-a-global-pariah-to-a-model-how-italy-turned-around-its-coronavirus-calamity/articleshow/77312587.cms

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2020/03/11/coronavirus-who-praises-italy-as-it-declares-pandemic_15477ab6-7116-4361-8168-08159471d30f.html

These are real webpages, I didn't make them up

But there are many reasons not to follow us along this path, though.

Not sure what your point is. The approach makes logical sense but there are also cultural factors why some countries are right back in the middle of it again. That can't be exported or followed!

is_that_so · 12-11-2020 10:32AM

Ashleigh1986 wrote: »

No but the worlds media especially sky news certainly used the footage from Italy ( remember the coverage of the army trucks with the coffins on the back of them ) to get their message out there .
We were told in Ireland that what happened in Italy was going to happen here .
The fear of God was put into the Irish public and 8 months later it still remains with a lot of people .
The media have played their part in this .
There's a saying ... " the pen is mightier than the sword " .
I wonder what would be the modern equivalent to that regarding media and especially social media .
" the Internet is mightier than the bomb "

TBH it was easy to alarm people back in February when we weren't au fait with R0, cytokine storms, morbidity risk and 14 day averages. Knowledge of the virus was scant and Italy looked like it could be a template for everyone else.

tobefrank321 · 12-11-2020 10:53AM

hmmm wrote: »

Billboard are reporting that Ticketmaster are working on a plan which will require either evidence of vaccination or a negative test to attend sports events or concerts.

https://www.billboard.com/articles/business/touring/9481166/ticketmaster-vaccine-check-concerts-plan

This should give people a lot more confidence attending large events like these.

Also a very good way to encourage vaccine take up and to reduce spread.

tobefrank321 · 12-11-2020 11:02AM

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

Not sure how that would work with GDPR in Europe though as this data would constitute special cateogires of data.

It's a bit too Orwellian in any event so presumably will get a big fat no from the public like that nonsensical Health Passport Ireland rubbish which utterly bombed when announced a few weeks ago.

Its hard to see governments here or elsewhere relaxing restrictions around mass gatherings if not everyone is vaccinated.

In the general non-vulnerable population, you could still be looking at maybe 1/1000 negative outcomes from covid 19, so either hospitalised, in ICU or death. That would still put a strain on hospital resources.

Honestly, the fastest route back to normality is everyone taking the vaccine. Otherwise we could be stuck with restrictions for years. And oddly enough many of those opposed to the vaccine (sit at home, internet conspiracy types) are most likely to suffer the worst effects.

DSN · 12-11-2020 11:22AM

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

Not sure how that would work with GDPR in Europe though as this data would constitute special cateogires of data.

It's a bit too Orwellian in any event so presumably will get a big fat no from the public like that nonsensical Health Passport Ireland rubbish which utterly bombed when announced a few weeks ago.

Think it depends on how much people want to get back to a 'normal' life & attend likes of large gigs, matches, travel etc & I think the vast majority are yearning for this so will do it.

12-11-2020 11:27AM

Voltex wrote: »

Sputnik V data looking really good too.
Not sure how they work out 92% efficacy out of 20 confirmed cases though.

https://sputnikvaccine.com/newsroom/pressreleases/the-first-interim-data-analysis-of-the-sputnik-v-vaccine-against-covid-19-phase-iii-clinical-trials-/

Applying an 80% confidence interval, if all 20 cases were in the placebo group that the expected proportion of infections in the vaccine group would be less than 8%

AssetBacked2 · 12-11-2020 11:59AM

DSN wrote: »

Think it depends on how much people want to get back to a 'normal' life & attend likes of large gigs, matches, travel etc & I think the vast majority are yearning for this so will do it.

Could you just have a star placed on your clothing instead of having it linked to your smart phone? It might get a bit more buy in from those of us who already feel too much of our personal data is harvested by the State and private entities.

ACitizenErased · 12-11-2020 12:03PM

The large increase in the US lately has contributed nicely to Moderna’s study I would assume.

AssetBacked2 · 12-11-2020 12:07PM

Moderna has echoes of Theranos from what I have read of them, they even have the intense and secretive CEO to go with it.

Gael23 · 12-11-2020 12:11PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It depends.

Getting a mobile clinic with cold enough freezers could be difficult and or expensive.

Then again you may be able to transport in a cold enough freezer then store for short periods in a normal freezer.

If they can't easily transport the may need to bus nursing home residents to a vaccine centre or they may determine that another vaccien not relying on cold chain technology would be better for nursing homes so they can do it on site.

It’s ok for 5 days with regular refrigeration I believe

plodder · 12-11-2020 12:27PM

Gael23 wrote: »

It’s ok for 5 days with regular refrigeration I believe

I heard somewhere that a few lorry loads of it would be enough to supply everyone in this country, with one dose. But, we couldn't do that in 5 days. So, I suspect we will need storage facilities at minus 80.

Anyone know if such facilities exist in this country?

Gael23 · 12-11-2020 12:29PM

plodder wrote: »

I heard somewhere that a few lorry loads of it would be enough to supply everyone in this country, with one dose. But, we couldn't do that in 5 days. So, I suspect we will need storage facilities at minus 80.

Anyone know if such facilities exist in this country?

Yes correct but they could be centrally stored and the shipped out to distribution centres in smaller batches.

Problem is the public procurement process for the freezers will take months

bennyineire · 12-11-2020 12:30PM

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

Not sure how that would work with GDPR in Europe though as this data would constitute special cateogires of data.

It's a bit too Orwellian in any event so presumably will get a big fat no from the public like that nonsensical Health Passport Ireland rubbish which utterly bombed when announced a few weeks ago.

Yet another person who doesn't understand GDPR

Hmmzis · 12-11-2020 12:35PM

plodder wrote: »

I heard somewhere that a few lorry loads of it would be enough to supply everyone in this country, with one dose. But, we couldn't do that in 5 days. So, I suspect we will need storage facilities at minus 80.

Anyone know if such facilities exist in this country?

Loads, all you need is dry ice capable storage.

plodder · 12-11-2020 12:37PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Yes correct but they could be centrally stored and the shipped out to distribution centres in smaller batches.

Problem is the public procurement process for the freezers will take months

Ugh, that's what I was afraid of. We'll be relying on the DHL's and UPS's to ship it in and the 5 day clock starts ticking in some other country. Let's hope it's not the UK

Russman · 12-11-2020 12:40PM

plodder wrote: »

Ugh, that's what I was afraid of. We'll be relying on the DHL's and UPS's to ship it in and the 5 day clock starts ticking in some other country. Let's hope it's not the UK

I think I've read that Pfizer will be taking care of transport to the country's borders, after that you're on your own apparently.

lbj666 · 12-11-2020 12:46PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Yes correct but they could be centrally stored and the shipped out to distribution centres in smaller batches.

Problem is the public procurement process for the freezers will take months

There are emergency public procurement procedures.

plodder wrote: »

Ugh, that's what I was afraid of. We'll be relying on the DHL's and UPS's to ship it in and the 5 day clock starts ticking in some other country. Let's hope it's not the UK

Russman wrote: »

I think I've read that Pfizer will be taking care of transport to the country's borders, after that you're on your own apparently.

I imagine couriers will require to have a dedicated fleet for delivery and not just fling them in with peoples online shopping from amazon and deliver when they get around to it.

12-11-2020 12:48PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The large increase in the US lately has contributed nicely to Moderna’s study I would assume.

It did. They even said as much. They needed to reach 53 cases to perform interim analysis. A surge over the last week means they now have significantly more.

AssetBacked2 · 12-11-2020 01:02PM

bennyineire wrote: »

Yet another person who doesn't understand GDPR

That's not a response worthy of someone who claims not to be an ignoramous.

I would struggle to hang my hat on any of the permissible exceptions to the prohibition on processing of such personal information by Ticketmaster in the context of covid, which has been established as being relatively harmless to the vast majority of under 65s (which would be those of gig-going age) and, further, where a vaccine is widely available to health staff and the elderly;

https://gdpr-info.eu/art-9-gdpr/

plodder · 12-11-2020 01:09PM

lbj666 wrote: »

I imagine couriers will require to have a dedicated fleet for delivery and not just fling them in with peoples online shopping from amazon and deliver when they get around to it.

Right, it probably makes sense to entrust it to a single logistics company for traceability reasons, but you'd hope that they have suitable facilities to store the stuff for as long as necessary here in this country.

12-11-2020 01:12PM

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

That's not a response worthy of someone who claims not to be an ignoramous.

I would struggle to hang my hat on any of the permissible exceptions to the prohibition on processing of such personal information by Ticketmaster in the context of covid, which has been established as being relatively harmless to the vast majority of under 65s (which would be those of gig-going age) and, further, where a vaccine is widely available to health staff and the elderly;

https://gdpr-info.eu/art-9-gdpr/

Literally the first one - consent. You can consent to them processing the data that confirms your vaccinated status for the purpose of attending an event. Otherwise you don't attend the event.

They do not need to store the data for anything other than the purpose of a single event so it can be deleted immediately after.

Glastonbury put your photo on your ticket, ie you consent when purchasing to provide a photo that will be used to allow you access. The same could apply here, when purchasing a ticket for an event, you consent to providing confirmation of your vaccination status.

ShowMeTheCash · 12-11-2020 01:27PM

This may have been covered somewhere else in the thread but I will ask it anyways. So it has been said having covid does not seem to give long term immunity could be as low as 3 months and maybe none at all if a completely different strain of covid.

So my understanding of immunity is that vaccines and or getting a virus can give either short term immunity or long term immunity.

How is the vaccine going to be different?

I have heard it be said with a vaccines you may continuously need to get a "booster" so what is the plan? everyone gets a covid shot 3 or 4 times a year?

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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