COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Russman · 10-11-2020 05:28PM

hmmm wrote: »

I'm not sure of the manufacturing capacity, but the Pfizer CEO on CNN said they had 3 plants in the US manufacturing "for America", and the plant in Belgium is for "the rest of the world".

Italy has said they will get the Pfizer vaccine beginning January 20 2021. So not before the end of the year & they are part of the EU contract.

The US and UK had also signed deals with Pfizer before the EU, you'd assume they would be first to get deliveries. It'd be a lovely gesture if in return for the Irish passports after Brexit our new UK brethren could send a support package of tea and vaccines.

Thanks for the info, I didn’t realise this. Nice to have a date though. Wasn’t there an EU document saying all EU countries will get it at the same time ?

JDD · 10-11-2020 05:29PM

I think we added up some numbers a few weeks back to see how many doses we would need to vaccinate:

- Over 70's
- Health Care Workers
- People under 70 with high risk underlying conditions.

We worked out that it was just under 1m people in the Republic. Now, it was a bit of a stab in the dark because we have confirmed stats on the number of people over 70 and the number of HCWs, but no stats on the number of people with high risk underlying conditions. However, we do have the percentage of the population with those conditions in the US, so applied the same criteria here, and that is how we ended up at 1m. It's likely that we have a slightly healthier population than the US, who have unusually high numbers of relatively young people with diabetes and heart disease.

So that means we need 2m doses of the Pfizer vaccine.

We should absolutely get that under the current EU agreement. How soon we will get all of it is another question. I assume it will come in batches as and when it is manufactured.

Necro · 10-11-2020 05:30PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Pfizer/BioNTech is one of the Gates funded vaccines. He's already said vaccines provide a 20-1 financial return. He's also publicly said this 'pandemic' won't end until the entire world is vaccinated. Now it's two doses. Next it might be annual. Do the math. Astronomical profits.

3xh wrote: »

Has anyone else noted the distinct lack of airtime Gates has been getting in the past 2 months? Compared to when it all started and over the summer.

You’d think with the announcement of this first western vaccine, he’d be all over it, talking about the funding his Foundation puts into vaccine research, GAVI, this BioNTech company connection (which I didn’t know about myself)

It’s almost like he’s been told to STFU.

Deleted User wrote: »

He had to disable all replies and comments across all social media platforms as well due to the overwhelming negative response. He's a primary funder of the UN and WHO. The approved vaccine was always going to be one of his.

They're now saying other candidates are in later phase testing and will support the Pfizer/BioNTech roll-out. They'll be the likes of AstraZeneca and Moderna, which he has funded as well. So predictable

Deleted User wrote: »

Again, take the word of the people who are actually funding it:

- 20-1 financial return on each vaccine
- Aiming for entire population to be vaccinated.
- Multiple doses.

Do the math. This isn't difficult to understand.

Mod:

I'll direct you folks to the OP warning -

The purpose of this thread is baked into the title - COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures - it's not a platform to push an anti vaccination agenda. If posters wish to discuss the perceived cons of vaccinations, or push various theories regarding 'the agenda' (whatever that is supposed to mean), open a thread elsewhere on it.

Drop this discussion now and don't bring it up in this thread again.

Russman · 10-11-2020 05:32PM

Sky King wrote: »

Yeah it really interesting when you start teasing out the numbers like that - try to get a sense of the scale of what is involved. The scale of the challenge soon becomes apparent.

I am no logistics expert but I think rather than trying to put together a crazy ass national logistical distribution system which could quite easily be ballsed up, they would be better off having one or two national drive through centres in a location that is capable of handling a lot of traffic - somewhere like a stadium, a racecourse or airport carpark, or the disused ferry terminal in Dun Laoghaire or similar.

It's a LOT easier to bring a person to a vaccine than to go and create a novel, specialised cold chain to bring a vaccine to the person.

You could augment this with mobile services for care homes if needs be.

I think, especially for the ones requiring ultra cold storage, something like provincial centres might work. A couple in each province and maybe two or three for Dublin, north, south and west, something like that maybe.

hmmm · 10-11-2020 05:34PM

Russman wrote: »

Thanks for the info, I didn’t realise this. Nice to have a date though. Wasn’t there an EU document saying all EU countries will get it at the same time ?

Yes. I don't have it to hand, but it has come up on this thread before. Equal share depending on population.

Here's a Reuters article just out:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-vaccine-idUSKBN27Q2JL

"“Under the common framework agreement, Italy will receive some 13.6% of the first 200 million doses, with 3.4 million doses expected as early as in January, provided the European Medicine Authority approves the vaccine in December,” the source said."

Some quick maths - Italy total allocation 27m, 3.4 million is 12.5% of their allocation. For Ireland total allocation c. 2m, 12.5% = 250,000 doses.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 10-11-2020 05:37PM

hmmm wrote: »

Yes. I don't have it to hand, but it has come up on this thread before. Equal share depending on population.

Here's a Reuters article just out:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-vaccine-idUSKBN27Q2JL

"“Under the common framework agreement, Italy will receive some 13.6% of the first 200 million doses, with 3.4 million doses expected as early as in January, provided the European Medicine Authority approves the vaccine in December,” the source said."

So on a population basis we would be looking at around 280k doses in January.

brisan · 10-11-2020 05:39PM

hmmm wrote: »

Yes. I don't have it to hand, but it has come up on this thread before. Equal share depending on population.

Here's a Reuters article just out:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-vaccine-idUSKBN27Q2JL

"“Under the common framework agreement, Italy will receive some 13.6% of the first 200 million doses, with 3.4 million doses expected as early as in January, provided the European Medicine Authority approves the vaccine in December,” the source said."

Some quick maths - 3.4 million is 12.5% of their allocation. For Ireland total allocation c. 2m, 12.5% = 250,000 doses.

Using those figures we will get about 1/12th of Italy's supply so about 280k in Jan ,enough for 140k people

Russman · 10-11-2020 05:40PM

hmmm wrote: »

Yes. I don't have it to hand, but it has come up on this thread before. Equal share depending on population.

Here's a Reuters article just out:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-vaccine-idUSKBN27Q2JL

"“Under the common framework agreement, Italy will receive some 13.6% of the first 200 million doses, with 3.4 million doses expected as early as in January, provided the European Medicine Authority approves the vaccine in December,” the source said."

Ok, so that works out at an EU allocation of 25m doses in January. If we’re 1% of the EU population, give or take, it’d be 250k doses which would get 125k people done. That’s a great start I think - potentially in about 10/11 weeks time we could have 125,000 people vaccinated.

Edit, stand corrected on the population, seems to be 280k doses per posts above.

hmmm · 10-11-2020 05:42PM

brisan wrote: »

Using those figures we will get about 1/12th of Italy's supply so about 280k in Jan ,enough for 140k people

Hmmzis or someone else might know more about the dynamics of booster shots, but given there's about 4 weeks between injections I wonder whether we would go ahead and simply give 250k people their first injection anyway to give them some immunity.

thecretinhop · 10-11-2020 05:45PM

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/health-news/ireland-set-receive-two-million-22984972

Great success!

CIARAN_BOYLE · 10-11-2020 05:46PM

hmmm wrote: »

Hmmzis or someone else might know more about the dynamics of booster shots, but given there's about 4 weeks between injections I wonder whether we would go ahead and simply give 250k people their first injection anyway to give them some immunity.

I guess it would depend. Are we getting 280k on January first and none til February?

Or are we getting 280k on January 1st and some more later.

JDD · 10-11-2020 05:53PM

thecretinhop wrote: »

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/health-news/ireland-set-receive-two-million-22984972

Great success!

There you go. Bang on enough doses to vaccinate the elderly, the health care workers and at risk groups.

Honestly, once they're done we can probably go down to a level 1.

I realise there are some immuno compromised people who can't take the vaccine, so they would still need to be very careful. But our hospitals won't get overwhelmed if the above population are vaccinated, so no more lockdowns!

The government will be looking to ensure that enough younger healthy people get the vaccine in Q3 in order to ensure herd immunity - and I bet my house that will mean that we will remain on Level 1 until a "sufficient" number of people have gotten the vaccine. Still, I think there'll be a good enough uptake by the 20-50 year olds that we will be able to go back to old times by mid Summer.

The end is in sight lads!!

VonLuck · 10-11-2020 06:00PM

JDD wrote: »

There you go. Bang on enough doses to vaccinate the elderly, the health care workers and at risk groups.

Honestly, once they're done we can probably go down to a level 1.

I realise there are some immuno compromised people who can't take the vaccine, so they would still need to be very careful. But our hospitals won't get overwhelmed if the above population are vaccinated, so no more lockdowns!

The government will be looking to ensure that enough younger healthy people get the vaccine in Q3 in order to ensure herd immunity - and I bet my house that will mean that we will remain on Level 1 until a "sufficient" number of people have gotten the vaccine. Still, I think there'll be a good enough uptake by the 20-50 year olds that we will be able to go back to old times by mid Summer.

The end is in sight lads!!

I don't want to be a buzz kill, but I envisage social distancing will still be a big part of our lives until most people are vaccinated. There's still a risk of long-term effects even for your Joe Soap catching Covid. I know you weren't suggesting otherwise, but I can't see things getting back to "normal" until then. Maybe mid 2022, depending on the quantities of the vaccine that may be produced by other pharmaceutical companies.

But this is a great step on the way to eliminating it from our lives.

Sky King · 10-11-2020 06:00PM

@JDD No mention of timeframe though. That could take a year...

is_that_so · 10-11-2020 06:02PM

Sky King wrote: »

@JDD No mention of timeframe though. That could take a year...

Probably not if we have multiple vaccines.

scooby77 · 10-11-2020 06:13PM

Don't know where the obsession with Bill Gates funding the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine has come from.
In fact a huge tranche of the development cost of this particular vaccine came straight from the German Government, through their $445 million grant to BioNtech:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-09/pfizer-vaccine-s-funding-came-from-berlin-not-washington

Russman · 10-11-2020 06:26PM

Jeez, the more I think about those numbers, the bigger the task gets.
Imagine if Moderna, J&J and Oxford all came through within the next couple of months. We could be theoretically looking at vaccinating 400k/500k per month in the springtime. That's an absolutely massive task, especially when you consider any two shot regimens.

I really hope the HSE have their planning heads on right now but I wasn't overly enthused by the lukewarm press briefing last night tbh. I almost got the vibe that the vaccine was a bit of a distraction. I know their focus is on the current measures which is fair enough, they can't be let slip, but still.

Hmmzis · 10-11-2020 06:27PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I guess it would depend. Are we getting 280k on January first and none til February?

Or are we getting 280k on January 1st and some more later.

I think that's precisely what it depends on. If we are getting a constant regular supply then just jab away in a constant stream as the vaccines are coming in and try to stick to at least a somewhat reasonable schedule for the boosters (none of them are actually that dependent on an exact schedule).

Cork2021 · 10-11-2020 06:32PM

Looks like good news coming from AstraZeneca..
https://twitter.com/askomartin/status/1326177880586526721?s=21
Youll need to use translate

hmmm · 10-11-2020 06:34PM

Russman wrote: »

Jeez, the more I think about those numbers, the bigger the task gets.
Imagine if Moderna, J&J and Oxford all came through within the next couple of months. We could be theoretically looking at vaccinating 400k/500k per month in the springtime. That's an absolutely massive task, especially when you consider any two shot regimens.

And with a couple of different vaccines with different storage requirements and suitable for different groups

The HSE did a good job standing up testing at the start. I imagine this is a similar logistical exercise so I'd be reasonably confident (with help from the army and a few others).

10-11-2020 06:39PM

Cork2021 wrote: »

Looks like good news coming from AstraZeneca..
https://twitter.com/askomartin/status/1326177880586526721?s=21
Youll need to use translate

Excellente!

is_that_so · 10-11-2020 06:40PM

Cork2021 wrote: »

Looks like good news coming from AstraZeneca..
https://twitter.com/askomartin/status/1326177880586526721?s=21
Youll need to use translate

Results would be just as good as Pfizer! Publication of data very soon and approval/application for approval for EUA 10 days after that.

Thierry12 · 10-11-2020 06:43PM

Cork2021 wrote: »

Looks like good news coming from AstraZeneca..
https://twitter.com/askomartin/status/1326177880586526721?s=21
Youll need to use translate

Nice

Competition at last

Pfizer is supposedly €40 per dose, while AstraZeneca are selling to the EU for €2.50 per dose

We will be going for Pfizer :pac:

Russman · 10-11-2020 06:54PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Nice

Competition at last

Pfizer is supposedly €40 per dose, while AstraZeneca are selling to the EU for €2.50 per dose

We will be going for Pfizer :pac:

Aren’t they already paid for though ? I know it’s obviously coming from our taxes ultimately but joe public isn’t going to fork out directly ?

lbj666 · 10-11-2020 06:57PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Nice

Competition at last

Pfizer is supposedly €40 per dose, while AstraZeneca are selling to the EU for €2.50 per dose

We will be going for Pfizer :pac:

Presume pfizer will get paid for their 200m vacines either way (or at least in part)? I mean thats part of the deal for busting their holes in R&D for the past 10months?

seamie78 · 10-11-2020 07:09PM

Is this news from oxford from an official source

Hmmzis · 10-11-2020 07:20PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Nice

Competition at last

Pfizer is supposedly €40 per dose, while AstraZeneca are selling to the EU for €2.50 per dose

We will be going for Pfizer :pac:

The EU has ordered a few hundred million doses of AZ/Oxford as well. I think the prorata allocation would give Ireland around 5 million doses of it.

lbj666 · 10-11-2020 07:23PM

seamie78 wrote: »

Is this news from oxford from an official source

I havent a word of spanish so they could be talking about the Argentine Superliga for all i know.

Gael23 · 10-11-2020 08:10PM

Apparently the Pfizer vaccine will not be suitable for people with compromised immune systems as it requires T cells to be working correctly.

odyssey06 · 10-11-2020 08:13PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Apparently the Pfizer vaccine will not be suitable for people with compromised immune systems as it requires T cells to be working correctly.

Is a vaccine feasible that doesnt depend on such a response?
Think the AstraZeneca also relies on T cell?

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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