Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

mloc123 · 10-11-2020 12:16PM

seamus wrote: »

3. Celebrity doctors and talking heads tell us why it's very concering

Where is Maitiu O Tuathail these days? :pac::pac::pac:

MrMusician18 · 10-11-2020 12:17PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Matt Hancock has told the NHS to get ready to start vaccine rollout at the start of December

I wonder which vaccine that will be. Based on what I've read, it seems unlikely that the pfizer candidate will have european approval before mid-late December at the earliest.

The UK govt. have a consistent tendency to over promise.. Their announcements are driven by the need for good news rather than the ability to deliver. It's the kind of nonsense the poster above would rather the HSE be at rather than focussing on the problems we actually face

10-11-2020 12:18PM

seamus wrote: »

It's a rather bizarre twist of fate that come December we could be offering to help out other EU countries because we have some spare hospital capacity.

I fear the HSE will get off the hook on their utter incompetence through this.

Would be quite a kick in the nuts to go through lengthy restrictions to help maintain our hospital capacity, only to give it away to countries who didn't have a fraction of our restrictions.

Probably immoral of me to think that

MrMusician18 · 10-11-2020 12:20PM

seamus wrote: »

It's a rather bizarre twist of fate that come December we could be offering to help out other EU countries because we have some spare hospital capacity.

I fear the HSE will get off the hook on their utter incompetence through this.

If the country manages to get through this with surplus capacity, only an utter cynic would call their their response incompetent.

MelbourneMan · 10-11-2020 12:21PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Just for the avoidance of doubt he wasn't on newstalk, its a clip of yesterday's press conference.

Whatever about CMO & NPHET at the end of the day its governments call, I don't know if the restaurant association or the vintners have got some sort of heads up from government but they've both been out today saying they expect to be open in December.

This is correct. NPHET provides expert advice to the government. All decisions are taken by the cabinet. So the view that NPHET is controlling, or even wild irrational statements about a headmaster admonishing children, or living in a police state is either irrational nonsense, or deliberate misinformation for nefarious aims.

All public servants, medical experts, and members of the government are working with one goal - the good of the Irish people. Charges counter to that are groundless.

What is harmful, is non experts giving opinions on the recommendations of experts. Those of good sense know how little they know themselves - and trust those with the right expertise to provide the best guidance.

I call now on all here to cease with their baseless criticism and sowing of distrust for the recommendations of NPHET, and the actions being implemented by the government.

eagle eye · 10-11-2020 12:24PM

MelbourneMan wrote:

I call now on all here to cease with their baseless criticism and sowing of distrust for the recommendations of NPHET, and the actions being implemented by the government.

Your qualifications are?
Your opinions are more important than others how?

seamus · 10-11-2020 12:25PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

If the country manages to get through this with surplus capacity, only an utter cynic would call their their response incompetent.

The HSE's response has been incompetent.

They sat on their holes all summer and did f-all to build ICU or hospital capacity, to build contract tracing capacity or to engage in mass-testing programmes. Come August, we were no better off than we were in May. We hadn't increased our testing capacity beyond 100k/day. At that point we hadn't even proven we *could* do it. We had no extra ICU or hospital capacity. We only had a couple of hundred contact tracers, when international best practice said we should have 1,500.

They were saved by NPHET who made an allowance for our ****ty system and as a result put us under the tighest restrictions in Europe, earlier than the rest of Europe.

That's what saved us going over capacity; frugal use of a limited capacity, not a well-managed HSE.

brick tamland · 10-11-2020 12:28PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Just for the avoidance of doubt he wasn't on newstalk, its a clip of yesterday's press conference.

Whatever about CMO & NPHET at the end of the day its governments call, I don't know if the restaurant association or the vintners have got some sort of heads up from government but they've both been out today saying they expect to be open in December.

Its going to be a Tricky balancing act, a tough decision for anyone to make. Like it or not, there will be more movement of people in December, More people "going home" or going to see family. Not opening Pubs/Restaurants will undoubtedly lead to more household gatherings. There's an argument there that maybe restaurants should open to allow people to mix in a safer manner.

I'm not sure what the answer is though and that's before the economic consequences.

10-11-2020 12:29PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

If the country manages to get through this with surplus capacity, only an utter cynic would call their their response incompetent.

I mean we could quite easily get through this with excess capacity if we stayed locked down for 12 months, that doesn't make the response competent though.

stephenjmcd · 10-11-2020 12:30PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

I call now on all here to cease with their baseless criticism and sowing of distrust for the recommendations of NPHET, and the actions being implemented by the government.

This isn't a dictatorship you know, people are allowed to be critical and voice their criticism.

What gives you the right to say otherwise

MrMusician18 · 10-11-2020 12:35PM

seamus wrote: »

The HSE's response has been incompetent.

They sat on their holes all summer and did f-all to build ICU or hospital capacity, to build contract tracing capacity or to engage in mass-testing programmes. Come August, we were no better off than we were in May. We hadn't increased our testing capacity beyond 100k/day. At that point we hadn't even proven we *could* do it. We had no extra ICU or hospital capacity.

They were saved by NPHET who made an allowance for our ****ty system and as a result put us under the tighest restrictions in Europe, earlier than the rest of Europe.

That's what saved us going over capacity; frugal use of a limited capacity, not a well-managed HSE.

I've read your posts for years so I know that you posts are generally considered even if I don't agree with them. In this instance though you've given in to the populists argument. You know perfectly well that it takes a long time to add capacity to the health service and would take at least a decade in normal circumstances to bring up capacity to the european average. Healthcare workers are in the highest demand they've ever been globally, so to expect the HSE to add capacity in a major way in six months is an expectation that falls will outside what could be realistically achieved. The same arguments can be made for testing capacity too.

Roger_007 · 10-11-2020 12:37PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Matt Hancock has told the NHS to get ready to start vaccine rollout at the start of December

That seems a bit premature. The Pfizer vaccine is still in phase 3 trials. The results announced by the company are early preliminary results which probably should not have been released at this stage. There is a suspicion that Pfizer are trying to gain a commercial advantage.

funnydoggy · 10-11-2020 12:41PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

That seems a bit premature. The Pfizer vaccine is still in phase 3 trials. The results announced by the company are early preliminary results which probably should not have been released at this stage. There is a suspicion that Pfizer are trying to gain a commercial advantage.

I think all of these companies want a commercial advantage. Imagine being the first company with a vaccine! Ka-ching!

However, I don't doubt their scientific integrity one bit. You've seen the trials stop once or twice for minor blips. The vaccines will be independently reviewed by external people, who have no stake in the matter.

I see what you mean but I would trust Pfizer 100%

Charles Babbage · 10-11-2020 12:41PM

Cork2021 wrote: »

We need a break the vaccine has given that to us. I’ve followed the rules from the start but my patience is wearing thin now and the fact the amount of people unemployed is going to soar even further now is crazy!!! Feel so sorry for all those businesses and employees who are constantly left in limbo.
This bull**** about making a decision closer to the 1st of December is a joke. Business needs at least 10 days to get their houses in order.

A vaccine will give us a break, but not in 2020, there is no use in pretending otherwise. It is especially ridiculous to ease up on restrictions now when you know that you will be able to ease them safely in a few months because of the vaccine.

Jim_Hodge · 10-11-2020 12:46PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

This is correct. NPHET provides expert advice to the government. All decisions are taken by the cabinet. So the view that NPHET is controlling, or even wild irrational statements about a headmaster admonishing children, or living in a police state is either irrational nonsense, or deliberate misinformation for nefarious aims.

All public servants, medical experts, and members of the government are working with one goal - the good of the Irish people. Charges counter to that are groundless.
....
I call now on all here to cease with their baseless criticism and sowing of distrust for the recommendations of NPHET, and the actions being implemented by the government.

Just who do you think you are? This persona is not convincing.

Summer2020 · 10-11-2020 12:48PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Just who do you think you are? This persona is not convincing.

Agree. Very sad and bizarre life someone pretending to be a nphet insider.

seamus · 10-11-2020 12:50PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The same arguments can be made for testing capacity too.

Well not really, given that we increased testing capacity to 100k in the space of about six weeks. Not only did they stop there when every country in the world never stopped growing capacity, but they didn't use it. At a time when we could have been mass testing across the country and really grinding this into the ground, they sat back.

I do appreciate that I'm probably overstating it in terms of bed capacity. Looking at the numbers, they did actually manage to add about 55 ICU beds by scavenging every unused nook and cranny they could find and reopening them as critical care beds.

Contact tracing is probably the most evident part of this incompetence. Even before Ireland had a single confirmed case, all of the commentary was about how a system of tracing and testing was the key. South Korea is the silent winner worldwide, because of a high-capacity, high-efficiency tracing system. They were on top of this pandemic before we even got started.

This was an easy win. It takes about six weeks to train up a contact tracer. And there were hundreds of thousands of unemployed, educated English speakers who would have jumped at the opportunity for a stable income. They only needed to hire 1,250. Sure, there are logistical challenges to such a ramp-up. But they had a blank cheque too.

It was absolute blind luck that at the same time our contact tracing system became overwhelmed, that our case numbers had peaked. Another two weeks of case growth and we'd have lost control like NI which has effectively no contact tracing at all.

ShyMets · 10-11-2020 12:54PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

This is correct. NPHET provides expert advice to the government. All decisions are taken by the cabinet. So the view that NPHET is controlling, or even wild irrational statements about a headmaster admonishing children, or living in a police state is either irrational nonsense, or deliberate misinformation for nefarious aims.

All public servants, medical experts, and members of the government are working with one goal - the good of the Irish people. Charges counter to that are groundless.

What is harmful, is non experts giving opinions on the recommendations of experts. Those of good sense know how little they know themselves - and trust those with the right expertise to provide the best guidance.

I call now on all here to cease with their baseless criticism and sowing of distrust for the recommendations of NPHET, and the actions being implemented by the government.

Hello.

If I recall correctly you were asking anyone who had questions to send them on to you.

I have one. Are you Tony Holohan or Walter Mitty

Stheno · 10-11-2020 01:13PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I wonder which vaccine that will be. Based on what I've read, it seems unlikely that the pfizer candidate will have european approval before mid-late December at the earliest.

The UK govt. have a consistent tendency to over promise.. Their announcements are driven by the need for good news rather than the ability to deliver. It's the kind of nonsense the poster above would rather the HSE be at rather than focussing on the problems we actually face

The UK government said two weeks ago that they will not necessarily wait for EU approval, rather they will go through their own approval process with their equivalent

AdamD wrote: »

Would be quite a kick in the nuts to go through lengthy restrictions to help maintain our hospital capacity, only to give it away to countries who didn't have a fraction of our restrictions.

Probably immoral of me to think that

I don't think it's unreasonable to think that, but I do think that should the situation arise, we have a moral duty to our fellow man tbh.

Yes, it's rotten that we have had such long and harsh restrictions, but if that means we help reduce e.g. the pain of people in Italy or wherever then I'm all for it

seamus wrote: »

It's a rather bizarre twist of fate that come December we could be offering to help out other EU countries because we have some spare hospital capacity.

I fear the HSE will get off the hook on their utter incompetence through this.

Yep, with no recognition of the effort of the majority of people to prevent the hospitals being overrun

MrMusician18 wrote: »

If the country manages to get through this with surplus capacity, only an utter cynic would call their their response incompetent.

why?

political analyst · 10-11-2020 01:19PM

Cork2021 wrote: »

The Grinch (Dr Tony) has spoken on Newstalk, doesn’t expect there to be any Christmas drinks in pubs this year.

I’m sick of all this head teacher and is being bold pupils crap from NPHET!! Give it a fûcking rest. Yesterday’s press conference was a farce they actually sounded down beat about the vaccine news and I know they can come into it with tassels swinging from their nipples with party poppers but **** it give us some sort of optimism. Even when looking at the papers this morning, it’s a side headline on the front page. Christ this is huge news. People will not tolerate another lock down and I can business giving the middle finger eventually. Our hospital numbers have been driven by outbreaks in hospitals mostly this has not once been acknowledged in any way by NPHET or the HSE, but it’s our fault that’s happened etc...

We need a break the vaccine has given that to us. I’ve followed the rules from the start but my patience is wearing thin now and the fact the amount of people unemployed is going to soar even further now is crazy!!! Feel so sorry for all those businesses and employees who are constantly left in limbo.
This bull**** about making a decision closer to the 1st of December is a joke. Business needs at least 10 days to get their houses in order.

We might have avoided this lockdown if the 'wet pubs' had not been opened at all, given that alcohol consumption causes people to lose their inhibitions. When Level 3 was in effect in Dublin, people just went to pubs in neighbouring counties.

GazzaL · 10-11-2020 01:25PM

political analyst wrote: »

We might have avoided this lockdown if the 'wet pubs' had not been opened at all, given that alcohol consumption causes people to lose their inhibitions. When Level 3 was in effect in Dublin, people just went to pubs in neighbouring counties.

It was raining here the other day. I blame the pubs. Bastards. It's all their fault for everything.

JDD · 10-11-2020 01:32PM

So.

The government's planning is based on the fact that we will have at least one approved vaccine by Christmas, along with the possibility of another couple during the course of Q1 2021. They are probably hoping that the Oxford vaccine gets approved pretty soon, as I can't see the HSE rolling out a vaccination program for the "two-dose, must be stored at -70 degrees" Pfizer vaccine, though I suppose they will if they have to (it'll be a disaster if they have to, but that's another story).

It appears restrictions will be eased on December 1st. I expect they will allow three households to mix on Christmas Day, with a more restrictive limit on house visits on the surrounding weeks. Probably a mix of the Level 2 and Level 3 limits.

It's clear now, in optimistic terms, that there will be no widespread roll out of the vaccine until Q2 and into Q3/4. We do not have significant extra capacity in our hospitals, nor do we have a highly functioning track or trace system. It appears that the government know that there will inevitably be a third surge of cases after Christmas, and the only tool we will have to suppress that third surge is a third lockdown. I expect a third Level 4/5 in mid-February, extending until the end of March. That will suppress the virus enough that we will have about two months breathing room before cases start increasing to worrying levels again. That brings us to the end of May, at which point you would hope health care workers and over-75s will start being vaccinated, and there will be no fourth surge in cases. Or at least, no surge that will overwhelm our hospitals.

It appears the government have costed increasing our hospital bed capacity, including ICU, and the cost of putting a world class track and trace system in place, and decided that the cost of a third lockdown in February/March is more bearable. That might surprise some people, but given our experience on how costs can spiral massively out of control when it comes to HSE projects, it is probably a pragmatic decision. It doesn't make it right, or the way things should be, but it is probably a fair assessment of our situation.

The government have taken a significant risk here. Their strategy all depends on a vaccine being approved in time, being able to secure sufficient doses of that vaccine and - crucially - the ability of the HSE to organise a program of vaccination. None of these are a given. Especially the last step. And even more so if it's the Pfizer vaccine.

Dr. Bre · 10-11-2020 01:41PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

This is correct. NPHET provides expert advice to the government. All decisions are taken by the cabinet. So the view that NPHET is controlling, or even wild irrational statements about a headmaster admonishing children, or living in a police state is either irrational nonsense, or deliberate misinformation for nefarious aims.

All public servants, medical experts, and members of the government are working with one goal - the good of the Irish people. Charges counter to that are groundless.

What is harmful, is non experts giving opinions on the recommendations of experts. Those of good sense know how little they know themselves - and trust those with the right expertise to provide the best guidance.

I call now on all here to cease with their baseless criticism and sowing of distrust for the recommendations of NPHET, and the actions being implemented by the government.

Your on a wind up

pauldry · 10-11-2020 01:44PM

GazzaL wrote: »

It was raining here the other day. I blame the pubs. Bastards. It's all their fault for everything.

Yes especially the wet pubs

ZX7R · 10-11-2020 01:51PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

This isn't a dictatorship you know, people are allowed to be critical and voice their criticism.

What gives you the right to say otherwise

Melbourne man thinks he's a mod.
A covid mod ha

10-11-2020 01:58PM

ZX7R wrote: »

Melbourne man thinks he's a mod.
A covid mod ha

Melbourne Man got a Mod warning yesterday over on the "Relaxation of Restrictions" thread !

political analyst · 10-11-2020 02:01PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Yep, definitely the pubs which were open for a few weeks that are to blame, nothing at all to do with the schools being left open or a pile of workplaces that could easily have transitioned to WFH branding themselves essential.

Mask-wearing, distancing and provision of hand sanitiser are in place in schools.

political analyst · 10-11-2020 02:30PM

JDD wrote: »

So.

The government's planning is based on the fact that we will have at least one approved vaccine by Christmas, along with the possibility of another couple during the course of Q1 2021. They are probably hoping that the Oxford vaccine gets approved pretty soon, as I can't see the HSE rolling out a vaccination program for the "two-dose, must be stored at -70 degrees" Pfizer vaccine, though I suppose they will if they have to (it'll be a disaster if they have to, but that's another story).

It appears restrictions will be eased on December 1st. I expect they will allow three households to mix on Christmas Day, with a more restrictive limit on house visits on the surrounding weeks. Probably a mix of the Level 2 and Level 3 limits.

It's clear now, in optimistic terms, that there will be no widespread roll out of the vaccine until Q2 and into Q3/4. We do not have significant extra capacity in our hospitals, nor do we have a highly functioning track or trace system. It appears that the government know that there will inevitably be a third surge of cases after Christmas, and the only tool we will have to suppress that third surge is a third lockdown. I expect a third Level 4/5 in mid-February, extending until the end of March. That will suppress the virus enough that we will have about two months breathing room before cases start increasing to worrying levels again. That brings us to the end of May, at which point you would hope health care workers and over-75s will start being vaccinated, and there will be no fourth surge in cases. Or at least, no surge that will overwhelm our hospitals.

It appears the government have costed increasing our hospital bed capacity, including ICU, and the cost of putting a world class track and trace system in place, and decided that the cost of a third lockdown in February/March is more bearable. That might surprise some people, but given our experience on how costs can spiral massively out of control when it comes to HSE projects, it is probably a pragmatic decision. It doesn't make it right, or the way things should be, but it is probably a fair assessment of our situation.

The government have taken a significant risk here. Their strategy all depends on a vaccine being approved in time, being able to secure sufficient doses of that vaccine and - crucially - the ability of the HSE to organise a program of vaccination. None of these are a given. Especially the last step. And even more so if it's the Pfizer vaccine.

But the HSE's Winter Plan includes the recruitment of more healthcare workers. Furthermore, Sláintecare has cross-party support.

10-11-2020 02:36PM

A relative of mine was at a tyre centre last week, I wont say exactly where but it was in the Northern half of the country. After he had his tyres fitted, the guy working there started talking about covid19.

He said that his uncle was in the local hospital with it and had been written off the week before but had made a miraculous recovery. He went on the say that his sister had tested positive, and so had his mother. This guy wasn't wearing a mask.

wakka12 · 10-11-2020 02:40PM

Deleted User wrote: »

A relative of mine was at a tyre centre last week, I wont say exactly where but it was in the Northern half of the country. After he had his tyres fitted, the guy working there started talking about covid19.

He said that his uncle was in the local hospital with it and had been written off the week before but had made a miraculous recovery. He went on the say that his sister had tested positive, and so had his mother. This guy wasn't wearing a mask.

The NI/COI covid response disparity is beginning to feel like the way NY and the northern states managed it in comparison to the deep south

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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