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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #8642
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Timing belt wrote: »
    QE started in 2015 in Europe and there has been no major inflation up to now (besides asset inflation) as the majority of the funds stayed in the financial institutions.

    The difference this time is that the government are using the QE to stimulate the economy so yes we should see inflation and they will allow it to creep up to 3-4% before doing anything. When they do act to combat inflation it won’t be raising interest rates but will be QT so don’t see rates up at 5% in 5 years. We would be lucky if they get to 1%

    Entirely possible. However, I think the current decision makers in the ECB are 'book smart' and not 'street smart' and have little idea what they're doing or how their decisions affect investment decisions in the real world.

    They appear to make decisions based on if they go wrong they can say "but that's what that economics book I read for my masters told me should happen", so they can't be held responsible.

    IMO their decisions to date have put us right back into a similar place that resulted in the last bust.


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    #8643
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,423 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Entirely possible. However, I think the current decision makers in the ECB are 'book smart' and not 'street smart' and have little idea what they're doing or how their decisions affect investment decisions in the real world.

    They appear to make decisions based on if they go wrong they can say "but that's what that economics book I read for my masters told me should happen", so they can't be held responsible.

    IMO their decisions to date have put us right back into a similar place that resulted in the last bust.

    What decisions have they undertaken to ‘put us in a similar place that resulted in the last bust’? I don’t think you know what you are talking about!!!


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    #8644
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,868 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Absolutely. Just type in houses for sale in Foxrock and you'll see many mansions in that one area just sitting there for well over a year. There's too many big houses in Dublin and not enough people working in jobs that could ever afford the prices they're looking for today.

    Outside Dublin. You already know I believe the so-called vulture funds own most of the vacant ones and they will eventually want to exit over the next few years. So, house prices outside Dublin will most likely be worth a negative price by 2030 IMO.

    Just to add. I assume you remember those articles the Irish Times used to do years ago (maybe they still do them) about what you can buy in Dublin and France? And I think Biden being elected may be bad for Ireland in relation to the OECD tax reforms. The democrats didn't win by a big margin so they will be looking to get those jobs back to the USA ASAP before the next election.

    theres a few issues to address here,

    first off, foxrock isnt, and hasnt been for some time, the darling of the socodu market any more. It has been over taken by areas on the coast (Blackrock to killiney) and by d4/d6. Hence a house in foxrock at over 1.3m can sometimes even look like value, for example this, decent sized house, reasonable kerb appeal, on torquay road, loads of room to extend and a 0.3 acre plot

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dunbrody-torquay-road-foxrock-dublin-18-d18-v6f2/4461919

    that in dartry or dalkey is at least 2m.

    There is still an ok market for houses up to 1.3m or so, but once you get closer to 2m its slowed right down and houses at that price and above will be harder sells in foxrock as people dont desire to live there as much any more.

    you are then suggesting non dublin houses will have no intrinsic value.

    lets see how it plays out, im 100% certain you are nowhere in the ballpark.


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    #8645
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    PropQueries wrote: »
    The ECB and Governments have literally no idea how their QE is working its way through the economy. That's why they can't understand why it hasn't been working.

    It will show up eventually and all this extra QE will have added fuel to the inflation fire just when it wasn't needed. Then they will panic. Then they will raise interest rates fast IMO.

    So Governments and the ECB with all of their resources and money have no no idea how QE will turn out but you do :) hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaqhahahahahahahahaha
    God I need some air quick


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    #8646
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Timing belt wrote: »
    What decisions have they undertaken to ‘put us in a similar place that resulted in the last bust’? I don’t think you know what you are talking about!!!

    Ask yourself why the ECB wants inflation to rise? Outside of a few countries, most of the countries in the eurozone (even post-covid) have manageable debt to GDP ratios. They need inflation to rise because they need interest rates to rise to meet the pensions timebomb that is getting ever closer by the year.

    Once they reach their inflation target, they're increasing interest rates and fast IMO.


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    #8647
    almostover
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭almostover


    Currently looking to by my first home with my partner and finding that the property market is mental. We had set our sights on a modest detached house not too far from Cork city where we both work but that now has been ruled out as anything in our price range (€300k mortgage + €40k cash) requires a lot more that cosmetic overhaul in most cases. We have a combined salary of €105k per annum. Both of us want to be out of a mortgage in 25 years maximum and have limited our budget accordingly. No point having the so called house of your dreams if you have no disposable income to enjoy your life or be in constant fear or losing one's job and home.

    We have more or less given up on the idea of a detached house in the countryside. There appears to be no value for money in the second-hand market. For example we viewed a 4 bed detached house 30mins from the city last week that was advertised for €285k and had a offer of €280k. When we viewed the property it was quite neglected, damage to the eaves and slates on the roof, cracks in the load bearing wall in the kitchen and damp around the chimney upstairs. All things fixable if the house was at the right price. But when redecoration and renovation of those items are costed the house was very poor value for money. Especially considering that the help to buy scheme gives €30k off a new A rated house. We have viewed perhaps 15 similar properties this year and have always come to the same conclusion. Therefore, have now switched tack to purchasing a semi-d in a new development.

    We enquired on Thursday last week about a 4-bed semi D in a new development. 15 mins or so from the city. On the market 1 week. Only 3 properties left. Agent did not provide much in the way of details when questioned on garden sizes, aspects, technical data on build structure etc. Was sent a sexy marketing brochure and a price list and feck all else. Was told that agent would find out about other details for me but that they were getting huge demand to buy off plans. I called again at 9am this morning and in 1 day all remaining properties were sold. I am an engineer by profession and tend to ask for more detail but it's easier for the estate agents to snap up booking deposits from those less interested in the specification of what they are reserving for purchase. It's a complete frenzy out there, people forking over decent portions of their hard saved deposits based on a sales brochure. If you bought a new car from a brochure without even test driving it people would question you but one has to act fast in the property market despite the investment being about 10 times the price of a new car.

    What's interesting on the new development is that the detached houses struggle to sell. The 'market' valuation dictates the asking price yet there seems to be very few customers in this market that can afford the prices of the larger detached homes.

    No real point to this post other than ranting but our property market is dysfunctional. There are lots of people winning form it but it certainly isn't young working couples looking to buy their first home. The property market needs state intervention, I'm convinced of that now.


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    #8648
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,868 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    almostover wrote: »
    Currently looking to by my first home with my partner and finding that the property market is mental. We had set our sights on a modest detached house not too far from Cork city where we both work but that now has been ruled out as anything in our price range (€300k mortgage + €40k cash) requires a lot more that cosmetic overhaul in most cases. We have a combined salary of €105k per annum. Both of us want to be out of a mortgage in 25 years maximum and have limited our budget accordingly. No point having the so called house of your dreams if you have no disposable income to enjoy your life or be in constant fear or losing one's job and home.

    We have more or less given up on the idea of a detached house in the countryside. There appears to be no value for money in the second-hand market. For example we viewed a 4 bed detached house 30mins from the city last week that was advertised for €285k and had a offer of €280k. When we viewed the property it was quite neglected, damage to the eaves and slates on the roof, cracks in the load bearing wall in the kitchen and damp around the chimney upstairs. All things fixable if the house was at the right price. But when redecoration and renovation of those items are costed the house was very poor value for money. Especially considering that the help to buy scheme gives €30k off a new A rated house. We have viewed perhaps 15 similar properties this year and have always come to the same conclusion. Therefore, have now switched tack to purchasing a semi-d in a new development.

    We enquired on Thursday last week about a 4-bed semi D in a new development. 15 mins or so from the city. On the market 1 week. Only 3 properties left. Agent did not provide much in the way of details when questioned on garden sizes, aspects, technical data on build structure etc. Was sent a sexy marketing brochure and a price list and feck all else. Was told that agent would find out about other details for me but that they were getting huge demand to buy off plans. I called again at 9am this morning and in 1 day all remaining properties were sold. I am an engineer by profession and tend to ask for more detail but it's easier for the estate agents to snap up booking deposits from those less interested in the specification of what they are reserving for purchase. It's a complete frenzy out there, people forking over decent portions of their hard saved deposits based on a sales brochure. If you bought a new car from a brochure without even test driving it people would question you but one has to act fast in the property market despite the investment being about 10 times the price of a new car.

    What's interesting on the new development is that the detached houses struggle to sell. The 'market' valuation dictates the asking price yet there seems to be very few customers in this market that can afford the prices of the larger detached homes.

    No real point to this post other than ranting but our property market is dysfunctional. There are lots of people winning form it but it certainly isn't young working couples looking to buy their first home. The property market needs state intervention, I'm convinced of that now.

    just a tip for you (because its what everyone else is doing), if you are interested at all put down a booking deposit, its completely refundable and will give you at least 30 days to get answers to the qns you have.


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    #8649
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,423 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Ask yourself why the ECB wants inflation to rise? Outside of a few countries, most of the countries in the eurozone (even post-covid) have manageable debt to GDP ratios. They need inflation to rise because they need interest rates to rise to meet the pensions timebomb that is getting ever closer by the year.

    Once they reach their inflation target, they're increasing interest rates and fast IMO.

    They want inflation so that people will spend/invest. If there is. No inflation there is no incentive to spend/invest simple. Do you not understand basic economics and the effect of deflation?

    Rates will be low for a long time to come even if we see inflation as they will undertake QT before raising rates.

    They have already called out that a side effect of their QE will be upward pressure on house prices which will impact Germany Netherlands etc more than it will impact Ireland because of the income multiplier cap that we have in place.


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    #8650
    almostover
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭almostover


    Cyrus wrote: »
    just a tip for you (because its what everyone else is doing), if you are interested at all put down a booking deposit, its completely refundable and will give you at least 30 days to get answers to the qns you have.

    That probably my lesson to learn, just find it hard to fork over €5k or so just to declare my interest and get more information. Must get solicitor finalized so that I can pay the booking deposit quickly


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    #8651
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    almostover wrote: »
    That probably my lesson to learn, just find it hard to fork over €5k or so just to declare my interest and get more information. Must get solicitor finalized so that I can pay the booking deposit quickly

    Well there is competition out there for most properties in good condition and in a desirable place to live so thats what your up against


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    #8652
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Interesting betting odds on Paddy Power. The lowest odds are for the next general election being in 2021.

    Is there something stirring I'm not aware of and how will this impact on the property market this year as if there's something stirring, will FF/FG change tack fast to bring in further policies to solve the housing issue this year?


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    #8653
    WhenPigsCry
    Closed Accounts Posts: 119 ✭✭WhenPigsCry


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Interesting betting odds on Paddy Power. The lowest odds are for the next general election being in 2021.

    Is there something stirring I'm not aware of and how will this impact on the property market this year as if there's something stirring, will FF/FG change tack fast to bring in further policies to solve the housing issue this year?

    Because there is a no confidence vote in Varadkar scheduled for this week, which if he lost, would in turn bring down the government. But he is unlikely to lose.


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    #8654
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,901 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I've spent most of my life living in houses with cracked walls.


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    #8655
    woejus
    Registered Users Posts: 1,497 ✭✭✭woejus


    Timing belt wrote: »
    Do you not understand basic economics and the effect of deflation?

    There's a good few posters here who clearly don't grasp the fundamentals or subscribe to cargo cult economics, where every economic indicator can be twisted to suit their outlook.


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    #8656
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,849 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Interesting betting odds on Paddy Power. The lowest odds are for the next general election being in 2021.

    Is there something stirring I'm not aware of and how will this impact on the property market this year as if there's something stirring, will FF/FG change tack fast to bring in further policies to solve the housing issue this year?

    in terms of housing delivery, there are so many issues, the main one being government wanting rip off prices. BUT there is such a labour shortage, that short of them encouraging housing which is essential and massively needed v hotel and office (which are no where near as important) (encourage via extra taxation etc, to disincentive office and hotel until we have far more housing) I dont get how you ramp up supply, short of thousands of workers coming into the country again...


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    #8657
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    AssetBacked2 wrote: »
    Jesus I hope not.

    Objectively, it is a horrific rental market when the average price of a 1 bed in Dublin is 2k. Additionally, we will have to look at Mary Lou & Co in a few years leading us if the rental market makes any sort of recovery from this crash back to close to what it was in 2019.

    If FFG do not get their finger out and continue picking from the magical money tree that they said did not exist to build housing then Mary Lou will be in a great position come the next election
    Either way another lockdown in late Jan is on the cards


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    #8658
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Timing belt wrote: »
    What decisions have they undertaken to ‘put us in a similar place that resulted in the last bust’? I don’t think you know what you are talking about!!!

    Well to be fair you are not alone there :D


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    #8659
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Interesting betting odds on Paddy Power. The lowest odds are for the next general election being in 2021.

    Is there something stirring I'm not aware of and how will this impact on the property market this year as if there's something stirring, will FF/FG change tack fast to bring in further policies to solve the housing issue this year?
    This Government won't fall because if they do they know they will not get in again
    They have one shot at fixing the housing crisis.
    However I do not think they are capable or willing to fix it because of vested interests


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    #8660
    lalababa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,727 ✭✭✭lalababa


    WhenPigsCry wrote: »
    Because there is a no confidence vote in Varadkar scheduled for this week, which if he lost, would in turn bring down the government. But he is unlikely to lose.

    How would a vote of no confidence in LV bring down the Gov.?? He'd just get demoted. ER for taniste.


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    #8661
    AssetBacked2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    100% agree, they will have the rosary beads out, hoping for some miracle, but I absolutely reckon you are right on this. I do think they would prefer rip off houses and property and would lose power over it, before they would touch it. I was speaking to a mate who hates SF, I said to him, once it is sorted for working people, I dont care who does it, if it takes SF to get in, an economic collapse and that is what it takes, to get the issued addressed by government here, once and for all so be it. you are now asking, how will an economic collapse help the situation. If SF are elected on pretty much housing 100%, or cause a collapse, how could a new government, not actually address, what they (FFG) dont currently want to touch with a barge pole? their only current concern, is giving away as many free houses as possible, paid for by the taxpayer, to keep RTE off their backs

    a few years back economy booming and there were none or as good as no income tax cuts, from pro worker FG, during a boom! so forgive me for thinking being robbed hundreds of thousands of extra in property expense over a lifetime, warrants a vote for the only party that MIGHT do something about it or if they dont, it will create enough of an issue, that someone will have to do something about it IMO. The issue will be too big for the money hungry scumbags to ignore...

    I wonder how the post-covid recovery will pan out. The narrative to date is that actually the housing market is stable and robust, that lots of people are saving money this year etc. So to then ignore taking extreme measures to fix the housing market due to an alleged economic problem to be fixed post-covid would be very disingenuous. Essentially, the claim to date has been that most things are business as usual, therefore covid is not an excuse to not fix the housing crisis in the next 2--4 years.


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    #8662
    almostover
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭almostover


    Deleted User wrote: »
    the issue for govt is that they cannot and will not countenance any measure that sees house values fall

    so massive govt money pours into monthly spend on rental support schemes, and more schemes roll out to entice buyers on the ladder but not under any condition will the govt meet social housing demand by building, which is step one on easing rental pressures and easing second hand property supply problems.

    It's ludicrous that we have somehow linked property prices to economic output and prosperity. Property prices going up are a decent indicator that the economy is doing well and people have more wealth but it's not the be all and end all for an economy. Anyway it's all relative, we have the catch 22 situation here where property prices are going up far quicker than wages. Some people can't even begin to consider state intervention to resolve a societal problem lest their precious market be jeopardized in any way.


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    #8663
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    almostover wrote: »
    You made a lot of valid points too, not knocking that. Problem is that there is such a shortage right now in supply that it isn't that estate agents don't want to answer questions it's that people are panicked into act know ask questions later type decisions and the estate agents are exploiting that. Want to take a week to ask questions and have a think though a major decision, tough luck pal, all houses in your price range are now reserved.

    I agree the array of property up there is appealing. You would have time to ask the questions if you paid the deposit and your guaranteed to get it back if you want to pull the plug. so if your not happy with lack of response or the answers to your questions are not what you like.


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    #8664
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    First Time Buyer discussion moved here


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    #8665
    cubatahavana
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭cubatahavana


    median house price from the PPR

    According to this, the median value in 2020 is higher now than any other year before (for the month of October)


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    #8666
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    cubatahavana wrote: »
    median house price from the PPR

    According to this, the median value in 2020 is higher now than any other year before (for the month of October)


    This is the evidence that most people are still rejecting.
    Prices are still going up, and if they went up during 2020 with all that has happened, what stops them from keep going next year?


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    #8667
    enricoh
    Registered Users Posts: 4,858 ✭✭✭enricoh


    brisan wrote: »
    This Government won't fall because if they do they know they will not get in again
    They have one shot at fixing the housing crisis.
    However I do not think they are capable or willing to fix it because of vested interests

    Is there any fixing of the housing crisis possible? Getting social housing is so attractive now more and more people are looking for it.
    Friends of mine bought a 3 bed semi in the summer- roughly 300k in a commuter town. Probably e1500 a month mortgage?
    Mates of theirs got a better spec-d one a few doors down off the social for probably e150 a month.
    It's nuts, my friends are working out how theyll afford a couple of nippers.


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    #8668
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,506 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    enricoh wrote: »
    Is there any fixing of the housing crisis possible? Getting social housing is so attractive now more and more people are looking for it.
    Friends of mine bought a 3 bed semi in the summer- roughly 300k in a commuter town. Probably e1500 a month mortgage?
    Mates of theirs got a better spec-d one a few doors down off the social for probably e150 a month.
    It's nuts, my friends are working out how theyll afford a couple of nippers.

    This is likely not true.


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    #8669
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,849 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    awec wrote: »
    This is likely not true.

    a good friend of mine has a friend, whom I have met before, getting one of the luxury one bed apartments in dundrum for E50 a month (would just about cover the a typical management fee in an apartment complex) so I doubt E150 is much of a stretch of the imagination. Surprised they arent given hundred euro a week m and s vouchers too!


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    #8670
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,849 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    AssetBacked2 wrote: »
    I wonder how the post-covid recovery will pan out. The narrative to date is that actually the housing market is stable and robust, that lots of people are saving money this year etc. So to then ignore taking extreme measures to fix the housing market due to an alleged economic problem to be fixed post-covid would be very disingenuous. Essentially, the claim to date has been that most things are business as usual, therefore covid is not an excuse to not fix the housing crisis in the next 2--4 years.

    they can talk all the waffle they want, supply is nowhere near meeting demand... yes definitely many who are looking to buy, its now way easier to save for deposit due to lack socialising in pubs, no weddings, eating out...

    It LOOKS like there may be a vaccine or good enough testing in place, before the insane sums they are borrowing, result in a total financial meltdown. Of course a lot of damage has already been done... Will be interesting to see how it all pans out. Look, everything is rosy, until something changes or people get spooked, then the herd moves from safety and confidence, to panic, who knows when that will happen next, but it will...

    Given this scenario, but it is unlikely we will probably face it in our lifetimes again, but a house has risen in stock a lot v an apartment in my opinion. Not that I will ever live in an apartment again...


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    #8671
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    awec wrote: »
    This is likely not true.

    They would have to be earning less than 300 a week to pay that little

    https://calculator.tiltaffinity.com/


This discussion has been closed.
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