Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - Read OP for Mod Warnings

Stormyteacup · 09-11-2020 10:24AM

BeefeaterHat wrote: »

Some boards.ie expert will be along shortly to brand them all cranks I'm sure

Had to do some googling on that figure of 27,000 flu related deaths in 17/18 season.

Robert Koch Institute puts it at 25,000 approx. Seems they made a mistake in forecasting for their triple vaccine but their quadruple vaccine afforded protection.

Covid related deaths in Germany at 11.500.

Staggering stats - however no doubt will be put down entirely to lockdowns and mitigation measures and that in the absence of restrictions, the immunologists would have been correct and millions would have perished.

Something seriously amiss with level of fear generated over this virus.

opinionated3 · 09-11-2020 10:39AM

Meanwhile Mr Killeen and Mr staines are quoted in the Indo today telling the government to keep the restrictions till February. Our economy will do down the tubes completely with the blessing of these guy's

09-11-2020 10:49AM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Had to do some googling on that figure of 27,000 flu related deaths in 17/18 season.

Robert Koch Institute puts it at 25,000 approx. Seems they made a mistake in forecasting for their triple vaccine but their quadruple vaccine afforded protection.

Covid related deaths in Germany at 11.500.

Staggering stats - however no doubt will be put down entirely to lockdowns and mitigation measures and that in the absence of restrictions, the immunologists would have been correct and millions would have perished.

Something seriously amiss with level of fear generated over this virus.

It’s a truly bizarre situation. Every single stat shows us that Covid is nowhere near as dangerous as what we feared in January this year.

The death toll is tiny compared to what was forecasted. Just over 1M deaths globally. And the majority are with Covid, not of. Bodies are not piling up on the streets.

Some people seem to think that lockdown is the only thing that prevented that, but of course Sweden are proof that it didn’t happen. Even in Ireland with 1200 cases a day, deaths were still tiny.

I really fear we are going to look back and seriously regret our actions in 2020.

paw patrol · 09-11-2020 10:55AM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Had to do some googling on that figure of 27,000 flu related deaths in 17/18 season.

Robert Koch Institute puts it at 25,000 approx. Seems they made a mistake in forecasting for their triple vaccine but their quadruple vaccine afforded protection.

Covid related deaths in Germany at 11.500.

Staggering stats - however no doubt will be put down entirely to lockdowns and mitigation measures and that in the absence of restrictions, the immunologists would have been correct and millions would have perished.

Something seriously amiss with level of fear generated over this virus.

that flu in 2017/2018 was a savage dose. one of my kids got it and was off school for over month - january/early feb. wasn't right till mid may I'd say.
We'd no lockdown then or politicians pontificating to the nation on tv

patnor1011 · 09-11-2020 11:13AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s a truly bizarre situation. Every single stat shows us that Covid is nowhere near as dangerous as what we feared in January this year.

The death toll is tiny compared to what was forecasted. Just over 1M deaths globally. And the majority are with Covid, not of. Bodies are not piling up on the streets.

Some people seem to think that lockdown is the only thing that prevented that, but of course Sweden are proof that it didn’t happen. Even in Ireland with 1200 cases a day, deaths were still tiny.

I really fear we are going to look back and seriously regret our actions in 2020.

Not only Sweden. Most of Africa went by quite easy with no lockdowns while having little to none healthcare service available anyway.

MelbourneMan · 09-11-2020 11:31AM

Hello. Just had time to take a quick skim through the weekend postings, and there still seem to be quite a few misconceptions out there. I shall try to get to them all, and clear them up, but please bear with me.

Just to take first one that keeps coming up here time and again, regarding relaxation of restrictions.
Some minor relaxations are a possibility from Nov 16th. Note that this is not confirmed, and will be helpful, but still predominantly L5.

Then, I would like to scotch the ideas from some rather pessimistic posters here that L5 will continue through the Christmas period. It will NOT. We will be in a position to remove some restrictions. Broadly, think of it as L3, with some temporary seasonal relaxations on top of that.

L3 in a modified for will then resume for the medium/long term.

It would be helpful to all if we could avoid propagating false information about L5 remaining in force indefinitely. This has no scientific basis whatsoever.

patnor1011 · 09-11-2020 11:50AM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. Just had time to take a quick skim through the weekend postings, and there still seem to be quite a few misconceptions out there. I shall try to get to them all, and clear them up, but please bear with me.

Just to take first one that keeps coming up here time and again, regarding relaxation of restrictions.
Some minor relaxations are a possibility from Nov 16th. Note that this is not confirmed, and will be helpful, but still predominantly L5.

Then, I would like to scotch the ideas from some rather pessimistic posters here that L5 will continue through the Christmas period. It will NOT. We will be in a position to remove some restrictions. Broadly, think of it as L3, with some temporary seasonal relaxations on top of that.

L3 in a modified for will then resume for the medium/long term.

It would be helpful to all if we could avoid propagating false information about L5 remaining in force indefinitely. This has no scientific basis whatsoever.

Closing half of a shop like dunnes or tescos did to open quarter of closed section again where pillows and towels are with clothes and shoes closed still - that is a stuff which has no scientific basis whatsoever.

Shadow Dancer · 09-11-2020 11:55AM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. Just had time to take a quick skim through the weekend postings, and there still seem to be quite a few misconceptions out there. I shall try to get to them all, and clear them up, but please bear with me.

Just to take first one that keeps coming up here time and again, regarding relaxation of restrictions.
Some minor relaxations are a possibility from Nov 16th. Note that this is not confirmed, and will be helpful, but still predominantly L5.

Then, I would like to scotch the ideas from some rather pessimistic posters here that L5 will continue through the Christmas period. It will NOT. We will be in a position to remove some restrictions. Broadly, think of it as L3, with some temporary seasonal relaxations on top of that.

L3 in a modified for will then resume for the medium/long term.

It would be helpful to all if we could avoid propagating false information about L5 remaining in force indefinitely. This has no scientific basis whatsoever.

Sorry, no offence but are you a government spokesperson or something?
You recently signed up to Boards and you use the phrase "We" a lot.
Are you afraid too many people can think for themselves or something? Can too many people see through all the nonsense and hysteria?

JRant · 09-11-2020 11:59AM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. Just had time to take a quick skim through the weekend postings, and there still seem to be quite a few misconceptions out there. I shall try to get to them all, and clear them up, but please bear with me.

Just to take first one that keeps coming up here time and again, regarding relaxation of restrictions.
Some minor relaxations are a possibility from Nov 16th. Note that this is not confirmed, and will be helpful, but still predominantly L5.

Then, I would like to scotch the ideas from some rather pessimistic posters here that L5 will continue through the Christmas period. It will NOT. We will be in a position to remove some restrictions. Broadly, think of it as L3, with some temporary seasonal relaxations on top of that.

L3 in a modified for will then resume for the medium/long term.

It would be helpful to all if we could avoid propagating false information about L5 remaining in force indefinitely. This has no scientific basis whatsoever.

Much like the use of Level 3 restrictions has no scientific basis behind it. It's very easy to forget that even at L3 our freedoms are still greatly restricted. To the point whereby L3/4/5 have very little difference for everyday people and businesses.

What's the justification for mid/term Level 3 use?
What does the science actually tell us?

Stormyteacup · 09-11-2020 12:01PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. Just had time to take a quick skim through the weekend postings, and there still seem to be quite a few misconceptions out there. I shall try to get to them all, and clear them up, but please bear with me.

Just to take first one that keeps coming up here time and again, regarding relaxation of restrictions.
Some minor relaxations are a possibility from Nov 16th. Note that this is not confirmed, and will be helpful, but still predominantly L5.

Then, I would like to scotch the ideas from some rather pessimistic posters here that L5 will continue through the Christmas period. It will NOT. We will be in a position to remove some restrictions. Broadly, think of it as L3, with some temporary seasonal relaxations on top of that.

L3 in a modified for will then resume for the medium/long term.

It would be helpful to all if we could avoid propagating false information about L5 remaining in force indefinitely. This has no scientific basis whatsoever.

That really was a quick skim through. Hope you enjoyed your weekend - it’s good that you are back to clear things up, although it would be better if you directed your attention to actual points debated in recent pages.

Can’t recall anyone believing level 5 restrictions would continue through Christmas - just that it was established that some that living in a high level of fear of this virus would feel safer if we were all locked up for a very long time.

dalyboy · 09-11-2020 12:06PM

JRant wrote: »

Much like the use of Level 3 restrictions has no scientific basis behind it. It's very easy to forget that even at L3 our freedoms are still greatly restricted. To the point whereby L3/4/5 have very little difference for everyday people and businesses.

What's the justification for mid/term Level 3 use?
What does the science actually tell us?

Is that 2020 “science” (cartoon modelling etc) or actual science (ya know like this scientific method yoke)

FintanMcluskey · 09-11-2020 12:15PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. Just had time to take a quick skim through the weekend postings, and there still seem to be quite a few misconceptions out there. I shall try to get to them all, and clear them up, but please bear with me.

Just to take first one that keeps coming up here time and again, regarding relaxation of restrictions.
Some minor relaxations are a possibility from Nov 16th. Note that this is not confirmed, and will be helpful, but still predominantly L5.

Then, I would like to scotch the ideas from some rather pessimistic posters here that L5 will continue through the Christmas period. It will NOT. We will be in a position to remove some restrictions. Broadly, think of it as L3, with some temporary seasonal relaxations on top of that.

L3 in a modified for will then resume for the medium/long term.

It would be helpful to all if we could avoid propagating false information about L5 remaining in force indefinitely. This has no scientific basis whatsoever.

I appreciate you taking the time to summarise the misconceptions.

opinionated3 · 09-11-2020 12:18PM

Not much difference between level three and five really. Can't socialise. It's not living with covid, it's living with restrictions. And that's not living

09-11-2020 12:22PM

JRant wrote: »

..........To the point whereby L3/4/5 have very little difference for everyday people and businesses. ...........

Level 3 has non essential retail open, level 5 has it closed........... how is that very little different for businesses?

Penfailed · 09-11-2020 12:29PM

opinionated3 wrote: »

Not much difference between level three and five really. Can't socialise. It's not living with covid, it's living with restrictions. And that's not living

There's a massive difference to be fair.

bush · 09-11-2020 12:29PM

Augeo wrote: »

Level 3 has non essential retail open, level 5 has it closed........... how is that very little different for businesses?

There is a difference but its still very restrictive

charlie14 · 09-11-2020 12:50PM

JRant wrote: »

It's quite incredible that a figure of 3% can be used by anyone. Such a basic misunderstanding of statistics is sadly all too common. Comparing figures from the start of this pandemic, when the data set was still small, to now is at best laughable and at worst dangerous. It's been widely accepted that the number of confirmed cases is a lot smaller than actual cases out in the population. Sure the 3% is a number but we learn absolutely nothing from it. There is no correlation between cases and deaths, as we have seen over this past 6 weeks. A much better indicator is the age profile of infections and their impact. As the age profile of those infected went down, the death rate bottomed out and pretty much has stayed there since May. If the very elderly, whether they are in their own homes or nursing homes, can have resources focused on them will will have a positive outcome. If we continue with the blanket approach then it stretches resources from where they would be better utilised.

There are a number of points you appear to have ignored or perhaps just inadvertently failed to understand.

1.The data set is unfortunately not small and "laughably".
The ratio of deaths to confirmed cases is not from low numbers at the start of this epidemic. The 3% for Ireland and the 6% for Sweden are the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases calculated during the lull between the first wave and before the start of the second wave.
They are as close as makes no difference the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases for the first wave,

2. There is no correlation between deaths and cases for the present wave because as we have clearly seen deaths on a particular day have nothing to do with that days confirmed cases.

3. Your point that this ratio is totally incorrect is not based on actual data.
It is based on "widely accepted" guesswork based on modelling figures which from Imperial College to Sweden and Amazonas herd immunity modelling figures have all been spectacular incorrect.

4. If more in the aged and vulnerable category become infected than those young and healthy then the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases will indeed be higher, but as we have anywhere between 1.25M and 1.5M in the aged and vulnerable category in Ireland (with only around 30,000 in nursing home) I would be interested in how you propose to focus between 25% 30% of the population to ensure we will "have a positive outcome"

JRant · 09-11-2020 12:59PM

Augeo wrote: »

Level 3 has non essential retail open, level 5 has it closed........... how is that very little different for businesses?

To give a couple of examples that reduce footfall for businesses, public transport is still at a greatly reduced capacity and offices are still for essential workers only. Both of these greatly reduce the ability of businesses to attract customers.

charlie14 · 09-11-2020 01:00PM

patnor1011 wrote: »

German Doctors Letter to Chancellor Merkel, Put an End to the Covid “Fear Machine”

Dear Chancellor Dr. Merkel,

We, the signatories, are doctors from all areas of healthcare, who have been serving people in practices and clinics for decades. During this time, we have witnessed more than one seasonal infection in Germany, most of them with far more severe conditions and significantly more deaths than since January 2020 from COVID infectious diseases. Together we serve approx. 70.000 people.

The circumstances of the coronavirus wave in the FRG have been perceived differently than the media and the ongoing warnings of politics, which were unjustified in fact, presented to the public for months. Predictions of individual advisory virologists with millions of seriously ill and hundreds of thousands of deaths in Germany have not been true in any way.

In the practices, hardly any infected patients were infected and if, then with normal, mostly mild progressions of virus flu. The hospitals have been more empty than ever before. There was no overload of ICU. Doctors, doctors and nurses were skillful in short-term work. Initially, we found the wave of the virus running towards us to be threatening and were able to understand the infection protection measures. However, there are months of secured evidence and facts that this wave of the virus is only slightly more intense than an ordinary seasonal flu and must be considered much more harmless than, for example, influenza infection in 2017/2018 with 27.000 deaths in Germany. According to the data situation, there hasn’t been a threat to the German population from Covid-19 for months.

This must be the reason to return to normal life in Germany – a life without restrictions, fear and infection hysteria.

We’re increasingly seeing older people with depression, young children and adolescents with severe anxiety and behavioral disorders, people with severe conditions who could have been cured in timely treatment. We notice disruptions in interpersonal cooperation, hysteria and aggression caused by fear of infection, there are more and more vigilations and denunciations of ′′ positive swab victims ′′ – all this leads to an unprecedented tension and division of the population. The development of additional severe chronic diseases is foreseeable. These diseases with their severe consequences are expected to far outweigh the possible Covid-19 damage in the FRG.The signatories therefore call on those responsible for health care and politics to discharge their responsibilities for the people of our country and immediately avert this threatening development. We demand an immediate revision of the available data by an independent panel of experts from all relevant specialized groups and a prompt implementation of the resulting consequences for the people of our country.We demand that ineffective and possibly even harmful anti-infection measures be stopped immediately and that mass testing is meaningful (e.g. Currently, 1,1 million tests / week, of which 99,3 % negative, cost per week: EUR 82,5 million) to be audited by a panel of independent experts.

We demand to intensify the protection of risk patients and only from them, where every viral infection can take a dramatic course – the healthy, immune competent population does not need protection beyond the general hygiene and health measures that have been known and proven for generations. Children and adolescents in particular need contacts with viruses to ′′ format ′′ your immune system. Coronavirus has always existed and will continue to exist. Natural immunity is the weapon against it. On the other hand, the mouth-nose cover demanded by politicians does not have a solid scientific foundation.

We call on politicians and medical professional representatives to refrain from daily public warning and fear machines in the press and talk shows – this creates a deep and unsubstantiated fear among the population.

The Bundestag has gem. § 5 IfSG identified an ′′ epidemic situation of national scope Obviously, the conditions for this are not fulfilled anymore. We therefore call on the members of the Bundestag to lift this statement immediately and thereby to shift the decision and responsibility for this to where they belong: into the hands of the democratically legitimate Parliament.

If there is an independent free press in Germany, we call on them to research in all directions and also allow critical voices. Opinion formation can only take place if all voices are heard without value and facts and figures are neutral.

Through daily contact with the people entrusted to us and many conversations, we as doctors working at the base of the population know that the hygiene awareness of people has grown so far through the experience of this virus wave that normal hygiene measures without coercion will be sufficient in the future.

Drawn:

Dr. Robert Kluger

Dr. Bruno Weil

Dr. Antonia

Dr. Felix Mazur

Dr. Katharina Hotfiel

Dr. Christine Knshnabhakdi

Dr. Hanna LübeckHeiko Strehmel

Dr. Norbert Bell

Dr. Heinz-Georg Beneke

Dr. Hans-Jürgen Beckmann

Dr. Thomas Hampe

Dr. Luke Mine’sRadim Farhumand

Dr. Tillmann Otlerbach

Dr. Ulrich RebersDr. Dr. Hubert hair

Dr. Verena Meyer-RaheDr. Dr. Manfred Conradt

Dr. Matthias KeillchPhv.- Doz. Diploma Psych. Dr. Dr. Christian Wolff

Dr. Holger Schr

Dr. Michael KühneDorothe G öllner

Dr. Wolf Schr

Dr. Ernst Schahn

Dr. Michael SeewaldStefan KurzKonrad Schneider-Trench Schroer

Dr. Anna Pujdak

Dr. Stefan S ällzer

Dlpl.- Med. Holger Dreier

Dr. Norbert Katte

Dr. Thomas Gerenkamp

Dr. Flllp SalemDominik jokes

Dr. Karsten Karad

Dr. Georg RüwekampSchmidt Krause,

Dr. Elizabeth Kiesel

Prof. Dr. Henbert Jürgens

Dr. See Christine Jürgens Less

After wadding through the so called Great Barrington Declaration and seeing who was actually financing it and the signatories I really have no inclination to waste my time again doing the same with this one.
Seems to me though that the main gist of what they are saying is drop restrictions and the people are responsible enough to ensure numbers go down without any restrictions.

Recent history is not on their side on that I`m afraid.
Sweden tries it and are now imposing further restrictions with at least one region no proposing full lockdown

Johnboy1951 · 09-11-2020 01:07PM

IMO the best method of seeing the impact of Covid on lives is to track the all-cause mortality for the year and compare with previous years.

Excess deaths (absence any other new impacting event) can generally be attributed to Covid allowing for normal variations.

I believe this would show a spike in deaths in April when the virus was novel and before we took any measures to protect the vulnerable.

During the Summer I expect there would be no difference to previous years, and with the onset of Winter I expect the deaths to rise again as in previous years.

For me these would be the telling numbers ....... not the daily account of how many tested positive from whatever number were tested the previous day.

Stormyteacup · 09-11-2020 01:12PM

charlie14 wrote: »

After wadding through the so called Great Barrington Declaration and seeing who was actually financing it and the signatories I really have no inclination to waste my time again doing the same with this one.
Seems to me though that the main gist of what they are saying is drop restrictions and the people are responsible enough to ensure numbers go down without any restrictions.

Recent history is not on their side on that I`m afraid.
Sweden tries it and are now imposing further restrictions with at least one region no proposing full lockdown

I read it as frontline workers stating they have dealt with much worse threats than Covid in their experience.

And that fear and hysteria is doing more damage than Covid.

vid36 · 09-11-2020 01:17PM

Some good news for a better 2021. An effective vaccine is on the way.

BBC News - Covid vaccine: First vaccine offers 90% protection
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54873105

Cyrus · 09-11-2020 01:19PM

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

IMO the best method of seeing the impact of Covid on lives is to track the all-cause mortality for the year and compare with previous years.

Excess deaths (absence any other new impacting event) can generally be attributed to Covid allowing for normal variations.

I believe this would show a spike in deaths in April when the virus was novel and before we took any measures to protect the vulnerable.

During the Summer I expect there would be no difference to previous years, and with the onset of Winter I expect the deaths to rise again as in previous years.

For me these would be the telling numbers ....... not the daily account of how many tested positive from whatever number were tested the previous day.

indeed, one would wonder why this number isnt widely reported.

Dr. Bre · 09-11-2020 01:20PM

They will find an excuse to keep us at home

eonline100 · 09-11-2020 01:20PM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I see Varadkar is a bit now and saying that a lockdown isn't off the cards after all.

Ah Leo.. as usual, more concerned about the impact on his profile than any sort of integrity or actual position :rolleyes: Clearly the negative press from his friends in the media today have him worried.

And some want this guy back as Taoiseach??

Thanks for sharing

JRant · 09-11-2020 01:28PM

charlie14 wrote: »

There are a number of points you appear to have ignored or perhaps just inadvertently failed to understand.

1.The data set is unfortunately not small and "laughably".
The ratio of deaths to confirmed cases is not from low numbers at the start of this epidemic. The 3% for Ireland and the 6% for Sweden are the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases calculated during the lull between the first wave and before the start of the second wave.
They are as close as makes no difference the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases for the first wave,

2. There is no correlation between deaths and cases for the present wave because as we have clearly seen deaths on a particular day have nothing to do with that days confirmed cases.

3. Your point that this ratio is totally incorrect is not based on actual data.
It is based on "widely accepted" guesswork based on modelling figures which from Imperial College to Sweden and Amazonas herd immunity modelling figures have all been spectacular incorrect.

4. If more in the aged and vulnerable category become infected than those young and healthy then the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases will indeed be higher, but as we have anywhere between 1.25M and 1.5M in the aged and vulnerable category in Ireland (with only around 30,000 in nursing home) I would be interested in how you propose to focus between 25% 30% of the population to ensure we will "have a positive outcome"

Confirmed cases to deaths with COVID is a meaningless statistic though. We don't learn anything from using it. It's another example of making statistics show whatever you want them to. For a start, we have no idea of how many people died from COVID. HIQA have stated that the figure is artificially high and the fact that the majority of people dying with this virus don't even make it to hospital would bear this out.

Gael23 · 09-11-2020 01:33PM

We will be the last country in Europe to have restrictions eased, although I expect compliance will reduce significantly

FellasFellas · 09-11-2020 01:37PM

I was in Blackrock and Ranelagh over the weekend and it struck me how little people care about it anymore and rightly so, was like Christmas week. Guards driving up and down, not saying anything. Pubs serving away to people sitting and standing around outside. Covid has shown that outside dining and drinking is a runner going forward in the autumn and winter!

Roll on March time 2021, where at risk people will be getting vaccinated and we can kick this ****e to the kerb for good.

Gael23 · 09-11-2020 01:40PM

FellasFellas wrote: »

I was in Blackrock and Ranelagh over the weekend and it struck me how little people care about it anymore and rightly so, was like Christmas week. Guards driving up and down, not saying anything. Pubs serving away to people sitting and standing around outside. Covid has shown that outside dining and drinking is a runner going forward in the autumn and winter!

Roll on March time 2021, where at risk people will be getting vaccinated and we can kick this ****e to the kerb for good.

Why March?

FellasFellas · 09-11-2020 01:41PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Why March?

I can't see the Gov reducing restrictions before then. I don't think we'll get enough doses for them to vaccinate everyone they want to, and even then it'll be:

'We're doing well, but the next two weeks is crucial'

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - Read OP for Mod Warnings