COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

03-11-2020 11:30PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

No-one is making conclusions. Everything is speculation at this point. Most people are fine with speculation and different scenarios based on what the vaccines will achieve, eg effectiveness, sterilising, etc. One or two posters on the otherhand take huge offence to any kind of speculation. That's ok too. But its kind of idiotic to pin all our hopes on the vaccine alone and not have a plan in case its not 100% effective or sterilising. You cannot just rustle up hospital or icu capacity overnight if the vaccine fails to do everything some people think it will. There also needs to be a fallback plan.

I'd actually agree there should be a plan B. If the vaccines that are due to report in the next few months aren't particularly good, Europe should pursue some kind of elimination strategy.

We are in a situation where all our eggs are in the vaccine basket and that is extremely dangerous.

ACitizenErased · 03-11-2020 11:39PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The vaccine, a vaccine, the solution and exit to all this. It doesn't matter which one.

But if one doesn't provide sterilising immunity then 200 others might. It's not the end of the world if one doesn't.

charlie14 · 04-11-2020 12:24AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I'd actually agree there should be a plan B. If the vaccines that are due to report in the next few months aren't particularly good, Europe should pursue some kind of elimination strategy.

We are in a situation where all our eggs are in the vaccine basket and that is extremely dangerous.

Elimination strategy ?????

04-11-2020 12:40AM

charlie14 wrote: »

Elimination strategy ?????

It's probably for another thread, but in the absence of a sufficiently efficacious vaccine I don't see another exit strategy that would return a semblance of normal life in Europe. Unless we get as good as South Korea at tracing, testing and isolation (which would also requires border control and mandatory quarantine for incoming travellers).

Let's see what the vaccine trial results are like first though.

Irish Stones · 04-11-2020 09:15AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Unfortunately for those aged 40 to 48 also, Ireland stopped the Smallpox vaccine in 1972 it appears

How could this be?
The Smallpox was declared eradicated in 1980.

Irish Stones · 04-11-2020 09:21AM

https://newsroom.uw.edu/news/ultrapotent-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-designed-computer

This new vaccine under research and development could be 10 times stronger than what studied so far, and it doesn't need to be kept in a freezer, so it migt be easier to deliver and distribute.

Mark1916 · 04-11-2020 10:54AM

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nhs-will-administer-vaccines-before-christmas-if-one-is-ready-health-boss-says-12123325

NHS gearing up for distribution prior to Christmas if a vaccine is available.

seamie78 · 04-11-2020 10:59AM

I have seen this in relation to the UKs plans, would they have seen info from the oxford trial that hasn't been released or is their optimism that a vaccine will be ready by then solely based on the information that's in the public domain

Sconsey · 04-11-2020 11:03AM

seamie78 wrote: »

I have seen this in relation to the UKs plans, would they have seen info from the oxford trial that hasn't been released or is their optimism that a vaccine will be ready by then solely based on the information that's in the public domain

I believe public domain and probably dicussions with Oxford scientists. But none of them should have insider info of the phase 3 trial. Again I am not 100%, but I think to insure impartiality, none of the Oxford team would see the data until the trial is complete. This is part of the 'blind' in a double blind study.

ShineOn7 · 04-11-2020 11:56AM

Mark1916 wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nhs-will-administer-vaccines-before-christmas-if-one-is-ready-health-boss-says-12123325

NHS gearing up for distribution prior to Christmas if a vaccine is available.

Where's our "health service" stand on this? Have they said yet?

Mark1916 · 04-11-2020 12:13PM

Per Sky News: The chief investigator of the Oxford COVID-19 vaccine trial says the results of the trial are due this year, adding that there is a small chance of a vaccine by Christmas

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-small-chance-covid-jab-will-be-ready-before-christmas-oxford-vaccine-boss-says-12123325

seamie78 · 04-11-2020 12:13PM

I believe they have set up a committee of sorts. no real urgency obviously

charlie14 · 04-11-2020 01:49PM

seamie78 wrote: »

I have seen this in relation to the UKs plans, would they have seen info from the oxford trial that hasn't been released or is their optimism that a vaccine will be ready by then solely based on the information that's in the public domain

I would doubt it due to the double blind, but it probably doesn`t take away from the speculation that some may have inside information with AstraZeneca being an Anglo/Swedish company when the two countries first out of the gate with plans for using this vaccine are Britain and Sweden.

Personally I put that down to them perhaps just getting a bit of preferential treatment on supply due to the company being Anglo/Swedish rather than any inside information.

is_that_so · 04-11-2020 02:11PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Where's our "health service" stand on this? Have they said yet?

Gearing up just means thinking about planning. The initial recipients will be a much smaller part of the whole. You'd expect planning when there is actual news.

04-11-2020 02:18PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Gearing up just means thinking about planning. The initial recipients will be a much smaller part of the whole. You'd expect planning when there is actual news.

From a competent body you'd expect planning before the news.

is_that_so · 04-11-2020 02:22PM

AdamD wrote: »

From a competent body you'd expect planning before the news.

They manage the flu' vaccine programme every year so not completely useless.

OwenM · 04-11-2020 03:33PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Elimination strategy ?????

Euphemism for 'Zero-Covid' I think

04-11-2020 03:59PM

OwenM wrote: »

Euphemism for 'Zero-Covid' I think

I don't think you understand the word euphemism.

An elimination or eradication strategy is the same goal as zero covid, and isn't a gentler way of saying it, the opposite in fact.

There's only a few ways out of this in the next year

1. Delay and vaccinate - the current strategy, only works if the vaccine works well enough in the risk groups.

2. Herd immunity - would cost a huge number of lives and devastate the health service. Unknowns are possible long term effects and possibility of reinfection. Simply put it might not work.

3. Suppress massively South Korea style, this requires tracing backwards forwards and sideways, mandatory quarantine, massive testing, suspending privacy laws, restricted inward travel.

4. Elimination, you'd need Northern Ireland on board, but is in practical terms easier than option 3, biggest hurdle is political. See China, New Zealand, Vietnam.

I'm sure I've posted before that I believe a vaccine will work, but it's important to think about the options if that begins to look less likely.

Gael23 · 04-11-2020 07:07PM

Not good publicity for a vaccine. I’m not an anti vaxxer just to be clear https://www.rte.ie/news/courts/2020/1104/1175953-vaccine-case/

BeefeaterHat · 04-11-2020 07:24PM

AdamD wrote: »

From a competent body you'd expect planning before the news.

You would expect planning from a competent body but the HSE isn't a competent body.

speckle · 04-11-2020 07:27PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Not good publicity for a vaccine. I’m not an anti vaxxer just to be clear https://www.rte.ie/news/courts/2020/1104/1175953-vaccine-case/

I think the key word is 'pro transperancy'.

seefin · 04-11-2020 07:33PM

What are implications of the virus mutating in mink and spreading to humans? They didnt say how significantly it had mutated or if more serious after mutation but i guess its the fact that this happens and will happen again that is scary. Is this a big risk for coming years? They implied that this has implications for vaccinations . I remember people talking about this at the start but id conveniently forgotten the possibility of it happening

speckle · 04-11-2020 07:50PM

seefin wrote: »

What are implications of the virus mutating in mink and spreading to humans? They didnt say how significantly it had mutated or if more serious after mutation but i guess its the fact that this happens and will happen again that is scary. Is this a big risk for coming years? They implied that this has implications for vaccinations . I remember people talking about this at the start but id conveniently forgotten the possibility of it happening

I just posted this in reply to IgCorcaigh

'Quote: igCorcaigh
Minister: Alarming that the mink variant has affected people outside the industry

https://flutrackers.co...rus/page3#post897857 '

Thanks just reading that... possibilities from that
-potentially messes up the vaccine
-harsher strain
-potential for a new more harmless strain

I actually would hope for later, as some interesting research starting to bubble up that pet owners may have already some sort of helpful immunity.

Need to wait for more info/research regarding the workers affected.
And need to look back at Norways less harmful but more transmittable strain..were did it come from? And were did the spanish new variant arrive from?
And then trace how people with those variants doing.
Hope that helps flutrackers have been tracking the mink situation since the start..I think thats a continuation of a long thread on the subject

hmmm · 04-11-2020 09:20PM

seefin wrote: »

What are implications of the virus mutating in mink and spreading to humans? They didnt say how significantly it had mutated or if more serious after mutation but i guess its the fact that this happens and will happen again that is scary. Is this a big risk for coming years? They implied that this has implications for vaccinations . I remember people talking about this at the start but id conveniently forgotten the possibility of it happening

The problem I think is that the changes in the Mink strain have been in the spike protein which is what vaccine developers are targetting. There is no suggestion (for now) that this mutation makes it more transmissible or more dangerous, the concern is that the mutation might make a vaccine less effective. The Danes are taking a sledgehammer approach which makes sense.

"Among the mink varieties, seven have been seen different mutations in the Spike protein and examples of up to 4 different changes in Spike
the protein in the same virus. A specific virus with 4 changes in the genes for spike protein has been detected in five North Jutland mink farms and in 12 patient samples, of which 4 with direct connection to three of these
farm (cluster 5). Preliminary studies suggest that this virus exhibits decreased susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies from several people with a history of infection. This is proven in a laboratory experiments, where it is seen that the particular mink virus is not inhibited to the same extent in the growth of
antibodies from humans that have been infected with a non-mink-related variant of SARS-CoV2. Ongoing studies will further uncover the issue. Additional variants are identified by sequencing but not yet investigated for neutralization. This is worrying, as it could potentially affect the efficacy of a future COVID-19 vaccine against infection with new mink variants, and involve a risk of impaired immunity to these after over COVID-19 infection, which is important for the individual and for herd immunity in society."

speckle · 04-11-2020 10:17PM

Thanks Hmmm

Thierry12 · 04-11-2020 10:43PM

Why were my posts deleted?

Could they have not been moved if off topic?

Thierry12 · 04-11-2020 10:51PM

hmmm wrote: »

The problem I think is that the changes in the Mink strain have been in the spike protein which is what vaccine developers are targetting. There is no suggestion (for now) that this mutation makes it more transmissible or more dangerous, the concern is that the mutation might make a vaccine less effective. The Danes are taking a sledgehammer approach which makes sense.

"Among the mink varieties, seven have been seen different mutations in the Spike protein and examples of up to 4 different changes in Spike
the protein in the same virus. A specific virus with 4 changes in the genes for spike protein has been detected in five North Jutland mink farms and in 12 patient samples, of which 4 with direct connection to three of these
farm (cluster 5). Preliminary studies suggest that this virus exhibits decreased susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies from several people with a history of infection. This is proven in a laboratory experiments, where it is seen that the particular mink virus is not inhibited to the same extent in the growth of
antibodies from humans that have been infected with a non-mink-related variant of SARS-CoV2. Ongoing studies will further uncover the issue. Additional variants are identified by sequencing but not yet investigated for neutralization. This is worrying, as it could potentially affect the efficacy of a future COVID-19 vaccine against infection with new mink variants, and involve a risk of impaired immunity to these after over COVID-19 infection, which is important for the individual and for herd immunity in society."

Like your posts hmmm, you contribute alot here and pretty smart

But using I think?

Using I think

Would infer you've medical experience with spike proteins and have reasoning behind a conclusion

No offence but your reading reddit, twitter etc like the rest of us

The problem, it seems etc would be more suitable I think

Otherwise its just kinda plagiarism

3xh · 04-11-2020 10:53PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Why were my posts deleted?

Could they have not been moved if off topic?

So it’s not just me then.....

hmmm · 04-11-2020 11:02PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Using I think

Would infer you've medical experience with spike proteins and have reasoning behind a conclusion

If we restricted the thread to "people with experience of spike proteins", it'd be pretty quiet Thierry.

The people posting on the Soccer forums are not actually professional football players, and the same with other forums.

Thierry12 · 04-11-2020 11:28PM

hmmm wrote: »

If we restricted the thread to "people with experience of spike proteins", it'd be pretty quiet Thierry.

The people posting on the Soccer forums are not actually professional football players, and the same with other forums.

That's true

Apologies, don't mind me, I'm way too cranky.

I like your posts btw, one of best posters here

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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