US Presidential Election 2020

Canice Picklington · 31-10-2020 10:06PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

That said, in a world where Trump is only leading in Utah within the MoE, Pennsylvania becomes less of a concern:

Biden could lose by 1 point in every red state and it would still make no difference. He isn't going to win Utah, and is likely going to be voter suppressed or malwared to defeat in Florida, Georgia, Texas, Ohio and North Carolina.

He has to win Pennsylvania, and Pennsylvania carries the probability of chaos, violence and outright denial of democracy.

Trump is not hiding his plan to steal the election in the gerrymandered Supreme Court, he's flaunting it.

And the question is, what are the Democrats going to do to stop any of this?

I have no faith.

froog · 31-10-2020 10:07PM

tuesday's gonna be fun. i booked off the wednesday in work. make a night of it!

pixelburp · 31-10-2020 10:11PM

The question I've asked before in response to a Trump defeat is not what Trump does, but what the GOP allows. Trump has had his uses at this point so if the winds show a blowout, what value is there for the GOP to side with this (at best) divisive blow in to the party? Yes, the power grab is real, documented and involves precedent, but even still, I can't see their lust totally overriding sense. Just can't imagine Trump has made enough allies - bar Lindsey Graham - willing to side with him when the chips are down. Trump doesn't seem worth it; the GOP have their SC majority, the midterms will be along soon enough. Trump may find himself alone very quickly if the GOP whip decides him a lame duck.

Water John · 31-10-2020 10:15PM

pixelburp wrote: »

The question I've asked before in response to a Trump defeat is not what Trump does, but what the GOP allows. Trump has had his uses at this point so if the winds show a blowout, what value is there for the GOP to side with this (at best) divisive blow in to the party? Yes, the power grab is real, documented and involves precedent, but even still, I can't see their lust totally overriding sense. Just can't imagine Trump has made enough allies - bar Lindsey Graham - willing to side with him when the chips are down. Trump doesn't seem worth it; the GOP have their SC majority, the midterms will be along soon enough. Trump may find himself alone very quickly if the GOP whip decides him a lame duck.

The ebbing of power away can be quite dramatic. You become a has been in 24 hours.

Christy42 · 31-10-2020 10:18PM

So does any of the polling take into account the mass discounting of votes that might favour Biden? Like how do those 100,000 votes effect the odds or the late votes being thrown out in Wisconsin?

The harassing of the Biden bus to cancel campaign events. Sure they are obviously scared but cheating can work for people including Trump.

pixelburp · 31-10-2020 10:24PM

Water John wrote: »

The ebbing of power away can be quite dramatic. You become a has been in 24 hours.

Precisely. And at no point has Trump seemed interested in cultivating relationships or alliances within the machinations of Washington. The swamp, basically. In fact I still remember reading of his tantrums at being expected to horse trade with republican senators during the failed healthcare reforms; he refused to engage with the boilerplate processes of governance. This suggests to me that if the axe falls, his calls to action might ring to disconnected numbers. I do expect very public Road to Damascus moments from Republican politicians, keen to distance from the man. Trump never bothered learning the game of politics and may yet learn the cost.

briany · 31-10-2020 10:25PM

pixelburp wrote: »

The question I've asked before in response to a Trump defeat is not what Trump does, but what the GOP allows. Trump has had his uses at this point so if the winds show a blowout, what value is there for the GOP to side with this (at best) divisive blow in to the party? Yes, the power grab is real, documented and involves precedent, but even still, I can't see their lust totally overriding sense. Just can't imagine Trump has made enough allies - bar Lindsey Graham - willing to side with him when the chips are down. Trump doesn't seem worth it; the GOP have their SC majority, the midterms will be along soon enough. Trump may find himself alone very quickly if the GOP whip decides him a lame duck.

In this event, it would be interesting to see where Trump supporters go. We don't know what would happen with Trump in terms of pending legal cases and all that, but you have to think that Trumpism is going to stick around at the very least in the form of another candidate who has Trump's endorsement if not Trump himself trying to run for reelection in 2024. That would pose a huge headache for a Republican establishment that wanted to move away from Trump back to a more traditional Republican candidate who was about the stock stuff like small government, low taxes and traditional values. The mask has slipped from a good half of the Republican base. Therefore I don't think that the Republican party can afford to move too far from Trumpism (i.e. build the wall and conspiratorial thinking) without alienating those people.

ZeroThreat · 31-10-2020 10:26PM

I'm not sure how true this is. This is obviously an extremely biased anti-trump progressive liberal youtuber, but he's claiming in some places ballots have even been burned.

froog · 31-10-2020 10:35PM

what's the thinking on the massive texas voter turnout? blue wave?

An Ciarraioch · 31-10-2020 10:36PM

Depends on which counties are up most, presumably.

Brussels Sprout · 31-10-2020 10:37PM

Christy42 wrote: »

So does any of the polling take into account the mass discounting of votes that might favour Biden? Like how do those 100,000 votes effect the odds or the late votes being thrown out in Wisconsin?

In a word, no they do not - at least not directly.

One thing to consider though is that polls assess whether someone is likely to actually vote (the best polls assign a probability to each person's likelihood of voting). Quite often the people who end up having their ballots rejected are inexperience voters who may have been assigned a lower probability of voting when polled.
One caveat to that that though, is that this year many experienced voters are not voting in person and therefore could be open to being disenfranchised either through their own fault (not signing everything they should, dropping their vote off at something that isn't actually a drop off box) or through no fault of their own (For example, a court changing the rules around when a mail-in vote is admissible after the event or the failure of the postal service to deliver their ballot on time).

briany · 31-10-2020 10:43PM

ZeroThreat wrote: »

I'm not sure how true this is. This is obviously an extremely biased anti-trump progressive liberal youtuber, but he's claiming in some places ballots have even been burned.

There is nothing wrong with poll watchers and I understand that to be a normal part of U.S. elections. There is everything wrong with people coming down to polling places and being disruptive díckheads, though. A poll watcher's primary concern should be that every voter gets to vote and that democracy is carried out in a lawful manner. Getting in the way or worse is the very antithesis of that and should be an arrestable offence carrying a substantial penalty. That is unequivocal and applies to anyone showing up to a polling place with bad faith intentions, completely regardless of what end of the political spectrum they are coming from.

Hopefully such incidents are isolated and the vast, vast majority (>99.9%) of U.S. voters are able to get to their polling stations and vote with impunity. God knows there is already enough underhand stuff being pulled to suppress voters without adding literal physical harassment into the mix.

Brussels Sprout · 31-10-2020 10:49PM

3 state polls from 538's A-rated pollsters today:

Nebraska (2nd dis.) - Biden +2%
Wisconsin - Biden +7%
Pennsylvania - Biden + 5%

those could well be the final polls for all of those states

Water John · 31-10-2020 11:10PM

Are you sure that's Nebraska?

rossie1977 · 31-10-2020 11:19PM

ZeroThreat wrote: »

I'm not sure how true this is. This is obviously an extremely biased anti-trump progressive liberal youtuber, but he's claiming in some places ballots have even been burned.

Story is true https://abc7.com/ballot-drop-box-fire-vote-by-mail-election/7218106/

briany · 31-10-2020 11:19PM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

3 state polls from 538's A-rated pollsters today:
Nebraska (2nd dis.) - Biden +2%

Wisconsin - Biden +7%

Pennsylvania - Biden + 5%

those could well be the final polls for all of those states

We have to be fair, here, and say that there is recent precedent for such leads being flipped.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

In the two polls closest to the election listed here, Clinton was estimated to have a 7 point lead or a 2 point lead. It cannot be considered that 7 points is entirely safe.

However, in this coming election, the 7 point lead is the most conservative estimate regarding a Biden win and in another poll, it extends up to 10. You don't know until you know, but flipping Wisconsin would be even more contrary to polling than list time.

Regarding Pennsylvania, a 5 point lead is flippable as well, but are there any polls even suggesting it's a closer race than the general consensus of polls? Last time out, Trump always had those few polls that were contrary to the general tide of things. Those seem to have deserted him now.

MJohnston · 31-10-2020 11:20PM

Water John wrote: »

Are you sure that's Nebraska?

There are three districts in Nebraska.

MJohnston · 31-10-2020 11:23PM

briany wrote: »

We have to be fair, here, and say that there is recent precedent for such leads being flipped.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

In the two polls closest to the election listed here, Clinton was estimated to have a 7 point lead or a 2 point lead. It cannot be considered that 7 points is entirely safe.

However, in this coming election, the 7 point lead is the most conservative estimate regarding a Biden win and in another poll, it extends up to 10. You don't know until you know, but flipping Wisconsin would be even more contrary to polling than list time.

Regarding Pennsylvania, a 5 point lead is flippable as well, but are there any polls even suggesting it's a closer race than the general consensus of polls? Last time out, Trump always had those few polls that were contrary to the general tide of things. Those seem to have deserted him now.

The two last WI polls in 2016 were from lower quality pollsters with Dem house effects.

TomOnBoard · 31-10-2020 11:36PM

Rayden Mushy Carpentry wrote: »

How do people see TX going with this insane turnout?

Well, there's a current attempt to have 100,000 ballots, from 'drive-in' voting stations thrown out... Turnout is only useful if votes actually get counted!!

Call me Al · 31-10-2020 11:41PM

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Well, there's a current attempt to have 100,000 ballots, from 'drive-in' voting stations thrown out... Turnout is only useful if votes actually get counted!!

It smacks of desperation.
The idea that Texas GOP have to resort to such blatant disenfranchisement is shocking.
But this is the level they've been reduced to..

An Ciarraioch · 31-10-2020 11:48PM

MJohnston wrote: »

There are three districts in Nebraska.

And Obama won NE2 in 2008:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_2nd_congressional_district#Electoral_vote;_2008_presidential_race

Brussels Sprout · 31-10-2020 11:51PM

Water John wrote: »

Are you sure that's Nebraska?

It's the second electoral district only. It awards 1 electoral college vote to it's winner (Maine and Nebraska allow each off their electoral districts to award electoral college votes individually).

The Nebraska second district is basically the city of Omaha so it's far more liberal than the rest of the state (which wouldn't be difficult since the 3rd district is more Republican than any state in the country and the 1st district ranks somewhere between Kentucky and South Dakota).

Tell me how · 01-11-2020 12:26AM

It begins...

https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1322306439944282113

An Ciarraioch · 01-11-2020 12:32AM

https://twitter.com/DMRegister/status/1322682319090733057

froog · 01-11-2020 12:41AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DMRegister/status/1322682319090733057

"The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters"

Water John · 01-11-2020 12:42AM

US hits 100,000 covid cases today.

letowski · 01-11-2020 12:44AM

One state that is flying under the radar a bit for Biden is North Carolina. It's probably been the best state this week in terms of polling for Biden. A glut of recent polls have Biden pretty much all have him winning by about 3 or more points, with highly reputable pollsters like Siena (Biden +3) and Marist (Biden +5) giving him wins. Only Rasmussen have Trump winning there, and the best they will give him is a 1 point win.

North Carolina was also one of those states that won in the Supreme Court this week also. I like Biden's chances there in the state to be honest. Early voting shows good young (18-29) and Black voter turnout at 13% and 22% respectively, with 80% f the vote EVAB. I have a work colleague from North Carolina, his state always pretty well organised and expect to have a result called relatively early on the night as usual. This will help, if Biden has North Carolina won, it will take the pressure off him winning Florida and Pennsylvania later as a North Carolina -> Wisconsin -> Michigan is a solid route to a +270 EC vote victory for Biden.

TomOnBoard · 01-11-2020 01:08AM

I hope that, when the election is over, there will be a serious look at how partisan Law Enforcement appears to have become in its support for Trump/MAGA... I have no confidence that fairness and bias-free policing now exists in USA. Sad!

Gbear · 01-11-2020 01:08AM

TomOnBoard wrote: »

I hope that, when the election is over, there will be a serious look at how partisan Law Enforcement appears to have become in its support for Trump/MAGA... I have no confidence that fairness and bias-free policing now exists in USA. Sad!

I don't think partisanship is a sufficient word to use when its been infiltrated by Nazis across the US.

You say there's a few bad apples when there's some people fudging breathalysers for local dignataries. Not when they're coordinating with fascist militias. There needs to be a root and branch reform of law enforcement in the US.

Capt'n Midnight · 01-11-2020 01:23AM

Water John wrote: »

US hits 100,000 covid cases today.

Inconceivable !

The WhiteHouse has declared that Trump ended the pandemic and saved 2 million lives

US Presidential Election 2020

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