US Presidential Election 2020

letowski

One state that is flying under the radar a bit for Biden is North Carolina. It's probably been the best state this week in terms of polling for Biden. A glut of recent polls have Biden pretty much all have him winning by about 3 or more points, with highly reputable pollsters like Siena (Biden +3) and Marist (Biden +5) giving him wins. Only Rasmussen have Trump winning there, and the best they will give him is a 1 point win.

North Carolina was also one of those states that won in the Supreme Court this week also. I like Biden's chances there in the state to be honest. Early voting shows good young (18-29) and Black voter turnout at 13% and 22% respectively, with 80% f the vote EVAB. I have a work colleague from North Carolina, his state always pretty well organised and expect to have a result called relatively early on the night as usual. This will help, if Biden has North Carolina won, it will take the pressure off him winning Florida and Pennsylvania later as a North Carolina -> Wisconsin -> Michigan is a solid route to a +270 EC vote victory for Biden.

TomOnBoard

I hope that, when the election is over, there will be a serious look at how partisan Law Enforcement appears to have become in its support for Trump/MAGA... I have no confidence that fairness and bias-free policing now exists in USA. Sad!

Gbear

TomOnBoard wrote: »

I hope that, when the election is over, there will be a serious look at how partisan Law Enforcement appears to have become in its support for Trump/MAGA... I have no confidence that fairness and bias-free policing now exists in USA. Sad!

I don't think partisanship is a sufficient word to use when its been infiltrated by Nazis across the US.

You say there's a few bad apples when there's some people fudging breathalysers for local dignataries. Not when they're coordinating with fascist militias. There needs to be a root and branch reform of law enforcement in the US.

Capt'n Midnight

Water John wrote: »

US hits 100,000 covid cases today.

Inconceivable !

The WhiteHouse has declared that Trump ended the pandemic and saved 2 million lives

Brussels Sprout

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322693838985666560

droidus

froog wrote: »

"The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters"

I wouldn't dismiss that poll. Its an outlier, but she's an A+ pollster who came close in 2016. Id file it with that Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

L1011

814 is a sub-par but not atrocious sample.

Brussels Sprout

Today's PA poll was not the last one it seems (not by a long shot):


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322710788180791299

Manic Moran

Water John wrote: »

Surely a mock ballot paper should have, Sample, written as a watermark through it?

On occasion, they do (Or more accurately, printed in lightly opaque lettering). Very rare, though.

With respect to the Harris county business, is it a dick move? Yes. Is it without legal merit? I'm not so sure.

The brief makes a compelling case. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20401146/sd-tex-20-cv-03709.pdf but not one which cannot be successfully argued against. (There are two definitions in play, one referring to potential illness/injury, the other the difference between curbside and drive-through voting)

However, two other issues.
The first twitter commentary referred to a suit in Federal court. The second one referred to a suit in State court. On the basis of previous rulings, I can't imagine the State court will throw out the ballots, though there is a small difference between them. As long as the case is going on in the State courts, i would presume that the Roberts position of "Let the states figure it out" should be binding or at least influential on the Federal judge.

I guess we'll find out Mon or Tue.

dfx-

alchemist33 wrote: »

If the Democrats win all before them, surely some sort of electoral reform has to be on the cards, to stop all this uncertainty about whats valid, to stop people having to queue for hours to vote. From a European perspective, it's mental. Maybe it's more at state level action has to happen though.

Control of the senate is as important if not the more important races

Biden won't get to enact much change with McConnell still there.

listermint

Manic Moran wrote: »

On occasion, they do (Or more accurately, printed in lightly opaque lettering). Very rare, though.

With respect to the Harris county business, is it a dick move? Yes. Is it without legal merit? I'm not so sure.

The brief makes a compelling case. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20401146/sd-tex-20-cv-03709.pdf but not one which cannot be successfully argued against. (There are two definitions in play, one referring to potential illness/injury, the other the difference between curbside and drive-through voting)

However, two other issues.
The first twitter commentary referred to a suit in Federal court. The second one referred to a suit in State court. On the basis of previous rulings, I can't imagine the State court will throw out the ballots, though there is a small difference between them. As long as the case is going on in the State courts, i would presume that the Roberts position of "Let the states figure it out" should be binding or at least influential on the Federal judge.

I guess we'll find out Mon or Tue.

Your 'dick move' in the US would be. Called voter suppression by any other metric in any other country and has been called that by American administration's.

It's not a dick move shrug your shoulders it's cancelling 100,000 plus American citizens legal right to vote which they've actually gone out and made.

What would you say if it was your vote. And don't give me anything about voting in a different way. Let's say you voted in your chosen format and the Democrats decided that the polling station location had bad lightening and therefore all votes cast in it are suspended because the voter couldnt know what ballot selections they were made. What would be your thoughts. Dick move ?

StringerBell

Brian? wrote: »

I think we have a different definition for "bell weather".

Honestly I'm not even looking at the polling in Florida. It carries no real importance and it's a basket case .

I use it in the misspelled by me admittedly common use of bellwether, an indicator, a sign of things to come etc with trends.

It's okay that we disagree on it obviously, what we do agree on is that Pennsylvania is the make or break State in terms of who will carry the day.

looksee

StringerBell wrote: »

I use it in the misspelled by me admittedly common use of bellwether, an indicator, a sign of things to come etc with trends.
...

The definition of bellwether (courtesy Wikipedia) is particularly apposite

A bellwether is an individual who either leads or indicates trends; a trendsetter. The term derives from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading the flock of sheep.

Brian?

StringerBell wrote: »

I use it in the misspelled by me admittedly common use of bellwether, an indicator, a sign of things to come etc with trends.

It's okay that we disagree on it obviously, what we do agree on is that Pennsylvania is the make or break State in terms of who will carry the day.

In fairness horse, we have both been spelling it wrong .

MJohnston

Here 538 have done the hard work and given us all a very useful election night schedule, including highlighting likely early night bellwether:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/both-candidates-might-fall-short-of-270-electoral-votes-on-election-night-but-how-close-might-they-get/

I only wish election night had happened during the last week when we had that extra hour of time zone proximity

Fr Tod Umptious

alchemist33 wrote: »

If the Democrats win all before them, surely some sort of electoral reform has to be on the cards, to stop all this uncertainty about whats valid, to stop people having to queue for hours to vote. From a European perspective, it's mental. Maybe it's more at state level action has to happen though.

Elections in the US are run at a very local level,the polling hours, the format of the ballot paper, the required documents etc.

So something like congress cannot make such reforms.

It's that way for a reason, to stop Washington, and as such any individual party, having too much power over the electoral system.

MadYaker

dfx- wrote: »

Control of the senate is as important if not the more important races

Biden won't get to enact much change with McConnell still there.

It always seems totally mental to me that one guy in the senate can effectively decide what goes to a vote and what doesn't get voted on ever.

everlast75

The fact that this race is as close as it would appear is absolutely and utterly abhorrent.

StringerBell

Pretty much saying the same thing I'm saying about Florida in a more succinct way if anyone is in any doubt of what I mean by my own poorly worded, at times, posts.

I'm optimistic that there will just about be a clean sweep by the democrats, just about. Even if it's just by the bare bones of a net gain of 3 senate seats.

I have no worries at all that trump will be re-elected in a fair vote but I am starting to get a little worried about the voter suppression and the effect that might have on the outcome but there's nothing to be done about it really other than just overwhelm it with turnout.

MJohnston

MadYaker wrote: »

It always seems totally mental to me that one guy in the senate can effectively decide what goes to a vote and what doesn't get voted on ever.

The Senate is a massively archaic institution in a country that’s despairingly beholden to an archaic constitution. I feel like it’s because they wiped out the only intrinsic history that America had that they feel this obsessive need to cling to the small bits of history they do have. It’s such a broken country, and the one good outcome of the Trump era has been the EU realising that we shouldn’t be following their lead or relying on their presence anymore.

MJohnston

Also: one hour till the Upshot’s final state polls are out (presumably so early so they can be printed in the Sunday edition of the paper?)

MJohnston

Upshot:

Arizona (n=1,252)
Biden +6 / 49-43 (+10D from 2016)

Florida (1,451)
Biden +3 / 47-44 (+4D)

Pennsylvania (1,862)
Biden +6 / 49-43 (+6D)

Wisconsin (1,253)
Biden +11 / 52-41 (+11D)

MJohnston

Oh and here's the swing since the last Upshot polls in each state:

AZ: Trump +2 (Oct 4th)
FL: Trump +2 (Oct 2nd)
PA: Trump +1 (Oct 2nd)
WI: Biden +1 (Oct 11th)

Now, these are Likely Voter polls. PA has had early voting since September and the rest since mid-October at least, so I'm really curious to know how the samples are handling early voter weighting. I think Upshot counts people who've voted in the LV bundle, but I don't know how heavily they weight them in comparison to likely voters who haven't yet voted.

CorkRed93

WI + PA are done imo. I think Trump will take FL though.

Carfacemandog

For anyone curious like I was, as 0er 538 upshot = NYT, which they have graded at A+.

On that note, the 538 forecast (in terms of chances of winning) had Biden at about 72-28 lead before the conventions that then went to about 66-34 after if anyone can remember that week or two where Trump supporters all of a sudden got very interested in polls for a change. Well, it's been moving and moving back in Biden's favour for a good month or so, and now has Biden at a 90-10 advantage with just over 48 hours to go until the polls open.

We are probably too late for a scandal to upset Biden's momentum at this time like with the FBI deciding to release Clinton's email investigation info but not the Trump/Russia investigation which caused huge swings in the last 2-3 weeks of polling in 2016. I've been waiting for something to drop along those lines, but what they had 'prepared' was so weak that collapsed under an ounce of scrutiny and has had Tucker Carlson and co running from it as fast as they can.

On a chance of winning scale (not popular vote, though they track and aggregate that too for anyone interested), this is how some key states look as per 538s aggregations:

TX - Trump (64%)
OH - Trump (52%)
GA - Biden (58%)
FL - Biden (63%)
NC - Biden (68%)
AZ - Biden (70%)
PA - Biden (85%)
NV - Biden (90%)
WI - Biden (93%)
MN - Biden (95%)
MI - Biden (96%)

DK224

Only once in 27 elections since 1852 has a candidate won Florida and Ohio and lost an election, Nixon in 1960.

Brian?

This is fun.

I gave Trump AZ, GZ, FL, NV, PA and TX. Biden still wins 290 v 247.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews


I lost sight of the wood for the trees. I was so focused on certain races I didn't realise how narrow the path to victory is for Trump. He 100% needs Ohio and one more of WI or MN.


That's a real stretch for Trump based on the current numbers.

Canice Picklington

CorkRed93 wrote: »

WI + PA are done imo. I think Trump will take FL though.

I find it very hard to see Trump not take Florida. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll puts Trump 50-48 up there.

Florida is Trump's Ground Zero. It's probably the first big state that will declare. If he takes it, his path starts to open up again.

It's hard not to think of Florida and North Carolina as a pair, that's certainly how it worked in 2016. You could probably throw in Georgia and Texas to make it a foursome. If Biden doesn't win Florida, it's difficult enough to see him take any of the others.

Pennsylvania is the ball game. The Democrats need to throw the kitchen sink at it for the next two days.

Faugheen

Canice Picklington wrote: »

I find it very hard to see Trump not take Florida. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll puts Trump 50-48 up there.

Florida is Trump's Ground Zero. It's probably the first big state that will declare. If he takes it, his path starts to open up again.

It's hard not to think of Florida and North Carolina as a pair, that's certainly how it worked in 2016. You could probably throw in Georgia and Texas to make it a foursome. If Biden doesn't win Florida, it's difficult enough to see him take any of the others.

Pennsylvania is the ball game. The Democrats need to throw the kitchen sink at it for the next two days.

I think the senate races in NC and Arizona will bring both over the line for Biden. I agree with Florida though. I reckon Trump wins there.

However if Biden wins there then Trump is toast. There is no possibility of Biden winning in Florida AND Trump being competitive in the rust belt.

MJohnston

MJohnston wrote: »

Upshot:

Arizona (n=1,252)
Biden +6 / 49-43 (+10D from 2016)

Florida (1,451)
Biden +3 / 47-44 (+4D)

Pennsylvania (1,862)
Biden +6 / 49-43 (+6D)

Wisconsin (1,253)
Biden +11 / 52-41 (+11D)

Just to note that these polls have quite small margins of error due to the large sample sizes.

AZ - 3.0
FL - 3.2
PA - 2.4
WI - 3.2

That puts Biden 1 point above the MoE in PA