US Presidential Election 2020

Brian?

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

By what exactly? I see nothing to suggest the reporter is being dishonest.


https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1322208696311652356

By a lie.

Why would this be done in NY. It makes absolutely no sense. It's pointless.

An Ciarraioch

North Carolina does seem to be swinging back towards Trump, judging by recent polls, and Florida also within the MoE, though Biden still appears to have greater room for manoeuvre.

froog

MJohnston wrote: »

Similar to the Upshot’s resource, 538 have created a “when can I expect a result from each state” tracker:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

looks like florida is the one to stay up for. if it goes biden, it's game over. election could be over by 1 or 2am irish time.

BonnieSituation

is_that_so wrote: »

There's an interview with Newt Gingrich via Fox who claims that Trump will get 326 electoral college votes and is based on polls he trusts. Given he got 304 in 2016, this seems quite mad.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/10/28/gingrich_map_of_trump_with_326_electoral_votes_looks_right_left_is_going_to_be_terribly_shocked.html

Yup. I commented on it earlier in the thread.

For my sins I watched that live on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. It was one of the most batshít things I've seen in a long while and that's saying something. The whole segment with Hannity was a lesson in cognitive dissonance.

Brussels Sprout

MJohnston wrote: »

Similar to the Upshot’s resource, 538 have created a “when can I expect a result from each state” tracker:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

What odds on them bringing back the needle from 2016. I'd say the average NYT reader would be having PTSD if they saw that thing again.

BonnieSituation

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

By what exactly? I see nothing to suggest the reporter is being dishonest.


https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1322208696311652356

I think you've convinced me now.

It's clear that the Dems are trying to steal the election in Queens. Thank you.

TomOnBoard

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

What odds on them bringing back the needle from 2016. I'd say the average NYT reader would be having PTSD if they saw that thing again.

Ah, the good old trembling needle...a great idea that was failed by poor data feeding it...

And no, I believe the NYT said it won't be making an encore this year..

BonnieSituation

froog wrote: »

this "state picker" on fivethirtyeight is really great. play around with it and see the various routes to winning. helpfully tells you what way they are leaning to make it easier.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

I did it there and gave both candidates all their likely wins and threw Trump OH and PA (267) and Biden AZ (271).

It really highlights just how tough it's going to be for Trump.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#AZ:0,TX:1,CO:0,FL:1,GA:1,MI:0,MN:0,N2:0,NC:1,OH:1,PA:1,WI:0,AK:1,AL:1,AR:1,CA:0,CT:0,DC:0,DE:0,HI:0,IA:1,ID:1,IL:0,IN:1,KS:1,KY:1,LA:1,MA:0,MD:0,ME:0,M1:0,M2:0,MO:1,MS:1,MT:1,ND:1,NE:1,N1:1,N3:1,NH:0,NJ:0,NM:0,NV:0,NY:0,OK:1,OR:0,RI:0,SC:1,SD:1,TN:1,UT:1,VA:0,VT:0,WA:0,WV:1,WY:1

BonnieSituation

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Not sure what you're rolling on the floor laughing about.

You think this guy has been had, and it's all a ruse?

Grand, not sure what's so funny about that though.

It's pretty funny that you still think that this is in anyway legitimate.

BonnieSituation

pixelburp wrote: »

Yes, this feels quite relevant in the rush to pander to conspiracy theories that somehow New York requires shenanigans to lock down a Democrat ticket. That's patent nonsense, starting at a conclusion and working backwards, reality be damned. What next, West Belfast caught cheating to favour Sinn Fein?

Tbf to Trumpists, the anti-SF mob is more rabid and more irrational sometimes.

eire4

Deleted User wrote: »

Also I'll repeat, why would anyone feel the need to fix New York....

They don't. It is not unusual for the parties to send filled in sample ballots out to voters as part of their election postal advertising to try and persuade them to come on out and vote.

froog

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I did it there and gave both candidates all their likely wins and threw Trump OH and PA (267) and Biden AZ (271).

It really highlights just how tough it's going to be for Trump.

the way i see it, if biden wins a single battleground state, trump is done. biden winning one of those validates the polls (and maybe even shows he's undercounted) and hence he stomps all over the place.

duploelabs

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

By what exactly? I see nothing to suggest the reporter is being dishonest.


https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1322208696311652356

I've said before Pete, seriously who are you trying to convince? If you're taken in by this stuff, are you really definite it was the visa people calling you the other day?

Sierra Oscar

Significant narrowing of the 'early voting advantage' gap between Democrats and Republicans in the last few days according to the data.

Biden campaign worried about Black and Latino turnout too, although the campaign is using this to try and combat the complacency element which has set in.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1322275669536026625

TomOnBoard

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Significant narrowing of the 'early voting advantage' gap between Democrats and Republicans in the last few days according to the data.

Biden campaign worried about Black and Latino turnout too, although the campaign is using this to try and combat the complacency element which has set in.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1322275669536026625

Michael Moore may be closer to the truth than he's given credit for..

It ain't over 'til it's over...

Rjd2

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

What worries me about the polls is the 'shy Tory' factor.

Four years ago Clinton was seen as unlikeable and Trump was able to ride the 'I'm not a politician' shtick to great effect. Someone voting Trump back then wouldn't have had any qualms about revealing that he had their vote. This time, however, Biden isn't seen as unlikeable as her, while Trump has become taboo with the statements he's made. Most of his base aren't shy about supporting him with the MAGA hats and whatnot, but I worry that there is still a significant chunk of voters who are more tight-lipped about their intentions. A part of the electorate who are telling pollsters, friends, co-workers and so on that they won't be voting for Trump who will, on voting day, go ahead and do precisely that.

I get that.

I have now got used to when I see polls give a few extra points to Trump and take some away from Biden, but even doing that its very hard for Trump next week have shown.

He may do it, but we must remember those swing states he won last time round , he did by the skin of his teeth against a much more unpopular candidate and in at time where people were yearning for the unpredictable .

Things have changed for so many reasons in 2020.

Also must remember polling companies have worked very hard to catch the shy Trumper this time round while the Dem base unlike last time won't sit this out as 2018 mid terms and the recent immense early voting numbers.

Water John

538 have pushed Trump out to a 1 in 10 chance and Biden almost 9 in 10 of winning.

Overheal

United States Postal Police have responded to a call that a Miami Dade post office has been hoarding mail.

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322214250413215744?s=20

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322267463799738368?s=20

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322301574891393030?s=20

Not sure if there are ballots shown here but the station is clearly dysfunctional.

Brussels Sprout

Only just spotted that there was an ABC News / Washington Post poll (One of 538's very few A+ rated pollsters) of Wisconsin 3 days ago that showed Biden up by 17 points :eek:

Now obviously that can't be accurate but it does make me thing of something I heard in a 538 podcast recently. They said that if polling companies are good then every so often they should be publishing a real outlier of a poll. These will come along, every now and again as a quirk of the sampling process.
As a pollster, the natural inclination when this happens, is to put their thumb on the scale and smooth out these extreme results to something that is in more line with the norm. This is a phenomenon known as 'herding' and apparently it occurs more and more frequently as the elections get nearer and a consensus develops.

The danger with herding is that if it takes hold amongst all of the pollsters then changes in the race can be missed entirely. I believe this was given as the cause of the large polling miss in the last Australian general election.


TLDR: The pollsters employed by ABC News / Washington Post probably aren't cooking the books.

Water John

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Only just spotted that there was an ABC News / Washington Post poll (One of 538's very few A+ rated pollsters) of Wisconsin 3 days ago that showed Biden up by 17 points :eek:

Now obviously that can't be accurate but it does make me thing of something I heard in a 538 podcast recently. They said that if polling companies are good then every so often they should be publishing a real outlier of a poll. These will come along, every now and again as a quirk of the sampling process.
As a pollster, the natural inclination when this happens, is to put their thumb on the scale and smooth out these extreme results to something that is in more line with the norm. This is a phenomenon known as 'herding' and apparently it occurs more and more frequently as the elections get nearer and a consensus develops.

The danger with herding is that if it takes hold amongst all of the pollsters then changes in the race can be missed entirely. I believe this was given as the cause of the large polling miss in the last Australian general election.


TLDR: The pollsters employed by ABC News / Washington Post probably aren't cooking the books.

And Trafalgar put it at evens. Them and Ramussen have a Rep bias in their numbers. See a guy from Traflagar last night forecasting that Trump would win.

letowski

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Significant narrowing of the 'early voting advantage' gap between Democrats and Republicans in the last few days according to the data.

Biden campaign worried about Black and Latino turnout too, although the campaign is using this to try and combat the complacency element which has set in.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1322275669536026625

Yeah, there is lower and tightening ballots returned in Miami Dade and Duval (Jacksonville) county. Be worth keeping an eye on, Barack Obama was sent down there yesterday to drum up support. But that's definitely a worry in the Biden camp.

At the same time, I wouldn't read too much into Early voting/absentee ballots just yet. If the EVAB independent ballots break in the ratio polls expect, Biden will have a marginally favorably chance of winning. It's also possible that with high EVAB, that it could cannibalize the GOP margin on election day voting.

Nevertheless, all indications are that Florida is going to be very close (hot take!).

Overheal

Overheal wrote: »

I mean, look at the map against that itinerary

IDC if you have your own jet, that's nuts. But I imagine it will be not much more than tarmac appearances.

Sure enough his 3rd rally today was on the tarmac, and is being regarded as one of the shortest Trump rallies to date clocking in at just 21 minutes.

https://twitter.com/spettypi/status/1322322091073523713?s=20

https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/trump-holds-shorter-than-usual-rally-in-mn-after-publicly-railing-against-state-officials-limiting-crowd-size/

Quantity < Quality, Donald.

I guess it's a bit unfair of him to have to solo rally against Obama, Biden, Harris, and other surrogates. But, that'll happen when you alienate huge swaths of your whole party.

y0ssar1an22

Overheal wrote: »

United States Postal Police have responded to a call that a Miami Dade post office has been hoarding mail.

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322214250413215744?s=20

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322267463799738368?s=20

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322301574891393030?s=20

Not sure if there are ballots shown here but the station is clearly dysfunctional.

so there is a problem with mail in ballots?

y0ssar1an22

Overheal wrote: »

Sure enough his 3rd rally today was on the tarmac, and is being regarded as one of the shortest Trump rallies to date clocking in at just 21 minutes.

https://twitter.com/spettypi/status/1322322091073523713?s=20

https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/trump-holds-shorter-than-usual-rally-in-mn-after-publicly-railing-against-state-officials-limiting-crowd-size/

Quantity < Quality, Donald.

I guess it's a bit unfair of him to have to solo rally against Obama, Biden, Harris, and other surrogates.

21mins, that seems paltry!

anyone know roughly the cumulative hours X and Y have spent campaigning publically (that can include public appearances from zoom)?

Manic Moran

eire4 wrote: »

They don't. It is not unusual for the parties to send filled in sample ballots out to voters as part of their election postal advertising to try and persuade them to come on out and vote.

It hasn't been unheard of for newspapers to print supplements to bring into the polling booth with instructions on which way to vote on everything, that people just follow down the line, though I admit I'm not aware of any in this election cycle. Here in Texas it is strictly illegal to refer to electronic devices in the polling site, you need to bring hardcopies.

It is also not unusual for us to receive sample ballots from the Dept of Elections (or whatever the county equivalent is) which are almost indistinguishable from real ballots, to include the use of the term "Official ballot" at the top (and then "sample ballot" somewhere else on the page. Sometimes really obvious, sometimes not so much). This one does a pretty fair job.

The idea is that you fill it out, bring it with you, and make the real ballot look like the sample one you filled out at home (It even says so on the cover pages sometimes).

So, for that California image above, for example, you can tell the official ballot from the official sample ballot by the size of the paper. If the paper is narrow, the words 'sample ballot' have been cut off. (Or if it's offset, it's just been scanned, deleted and reprinted)

Anyway, Hanlon's razor strikes again. Never ascribe to malice what can be ascribed to incompetence...Turns out it was an official ballot after all:
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/nyc-premarked-ballots/

After reviewing the ballot shown in the video, election officials contacted the voter in California who had requested the absentee ballot. The voter confirmed they had received and completed the ballot and then returned it. But the voter used the wrong envelope and rather than the ballot going to the board of elections, it was sent back to the voter’s previously listed address in Queens.

Timberrrrrrrr

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

so there is a problem with mail in ballots?

No, there is a problem with USPS in that particular county.

looksee

everlast75 wrote: »

One last push for the racist vote

https://twitter.com/BrianKarem/status/1322412696659177472?s=19

"But, but, but - he's not racist...."

It seems as though this is a scam, there is apparently no record of it coming from the Whitehouse. What is worrying is that most people would at least initially accept that it is exactly the sort of thing that the Trump administration might come up with.

StringerBell

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Significant narrowing of the 'early voting advantage' gap between Democrats and Republicans in the last few days according to the data.

Biden campaign worried about Black and Latino turnout too, although the campaign is using this to try and combat the complacency element which has set in.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1322275669536026625

Good, they should be worried. Not because they are in any worse place in terms of the election than they were a week ago but it is vitally important they keep the pedal to the floor and don't count one single chicken until it hatches.

Drive on and get rid of the administration. The polls will narrow, this is well know, Florida will be close whatever way it falls this is also well known, don't stop pushing until they can at least say they left everything out on the field. The trump presidency is nearly over but his legacy will live on through the judiciary for some time.

everlast75

looksee wrote: »

It seems as though this is a scam, there is apparently no record of it coming from the Whitehouse. What is worrying is that most people would at least initially accept that it is exactly the sort of thing that the Trump administration might come up with.

Deleted.

I ****ing hate fake stories like this.

There is enough *actual* nasty stuff that 45 does without making stuff up

paul71

everlast75 wrote: »

Deleted.

I ****ing hate fake stories like this.

There is enough *actual* nasty stuff that 45 does without making stuff up

Like saying doctors get paid more when people die of Covid.