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US Presidential Election 2020

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    #8852
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,031 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    StringerBell wrote: »
    Florida matters, Florida always matters. Always such a close election and if it goes blue that's goodnight Irene. if it goes red it's still not over but for me it's quite a worrying bell weather.

    He has no path available to reelection without Florida is the bottom line and that makes it important, Biden can still win without Florida but the Donald absolutely can not.

    Nah. Florida is no bell weather. It's well within the moe and Biden can win handily without it.

    If Trump loses it he's gone alright. But it's not worth fretting over. The early counts will come in in favour of Biden and then it'll narrow. It'll be an emotional roller coaster. It's all about PA.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #8853
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,031 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    Biden's lead in Pa is dwindling. It's tightening more than any other key state. Could be within the MOE on election day. I am getting very nervous.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #8854
    droidus
    Registered Users Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    Im not saying you shouldn't be nervous, but why do you think that? Muhlenberg is A+ and today's poll showed him at +5 within their 5.5 MOE, but it aligns with the polling average which is +5.1 on 538 and +6.3 on the economist forecast.


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    #8855
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,561 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Brian? wrote: »
    Biden's lead in Pa is dwindling. It's tightening more than any other key state. Could be within the MOE on election day. I am getting very nervous.

    Dwindling is overly dramatic, it’s tightened by 2 points in the last two weeks, and has kind of plateaued at Biden +5 for the last few days. I’m as anxious about PA as anyone but I think it’s still enough of a gap for Biden to win it.

    Beyond that, he has a fairly clear path to 270 without PA at this point.


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    #8856
    duploelabs
    Registered Users Posts: 11,222 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    MJohnston wrote: »
    Dwindling is overly dramatic, it’s tightened by 2 points in the last two weeks, and has kind of plateaued at Biden +5 for the last few days. I’m as anxious about PA as anyone but I think it’s still enough of a gap for Biden to win it.

    Beyond that, he has a fairly clear path to 270 without PA at this point.

    Can Biden do it without FL and PA?


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    #8857
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,561 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    There will be a tonne of PA polling over the next couple of days — NYT with a huge sample tomorrow, especially


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    #8858
    Igotadose
    Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Attend a rally, get Covid, die. No surprise here. Way to go, #IMPOTUS

    "Study: Trump rallies may be responsible for an estimated 700 Covid-19 deaths
    The president is most likely a superspreader."

    https://www.vox.com/2020/10/31/21543277/trump-rallies-covid-19-deaths-superspreader-stanford-study-infections


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    #8859
    BlitzKrieg
    Registered Users Posts: 14,685 ✭✭✭✭BlitzKrieg


    Igotadose wrote: »
    Attend a rally, get Covid, die. No surprise here. Way to go, #IMPOTUS

    "Study: Trump rallies may be responsible for an estimated 700 Covid-19 deaths
    The president is most likely a superspreader."

    https://www.vox.com/2020/10/31/21543277/trump-rallies-covid-19-deaths-superspreader-stanford-study-infections

    as blatant a situation it is, taking that line will just feed into his own narrative that covid is blown out of proportion just to attack him specifically.

    Thankfully its very late in the campaign but fighting trump is as much not giving him anything he can turn into fuel to motivate the gop base then anything else. For the most part the Bidan campaign have been quite good as they've not given him a lot and what they have given him has not caught on (the oil comment in the last debate for example) but still it's not wise to give him a second wind on one of his talking points.


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    #8860
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,226 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    One other reason Florida is important is that its count will come in on election night, Pennsylvania will be days. So if Biden wins it the door is closed.

    See that Stanford University have done a calculation and say that Trump's rallies are responsible directly and indirectly for 700 Deaths.

    Igotadose, you beat me to it, very shocking.


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    #8861
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,107 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    Brian? wrote: »
    Nah. Florida is no bell weather. It's well within the moe and Biden can win handily without it.

    If Trump loses it he's gone alright. But it's not worth fretting over. The early counts will come in in favour of Biden and then it'll narrow. It'll be an emotional roller coaster. It's all about PA.

    I disagree, Florida is very much a bell weather. So much can be gauged by how Biden does in that State.

    I have no issue with placing PA above Florida in terms of importance to Biden but the comments that Florida doesn't matter are completely ludicrous to me. Voting will close in Florida and the rest of the country out west will still be voting, energising or demoralising voters in other States is very much part and parcel of the US election that is held across different timezones.

    If Biden wins Florida thats the job done, thats the bell weather that it is over for Trump and will have an impact on his support across the country and will also have a big impact on Senate races and House races particularly in the western states of the US, and Trump wins, and wins well in Florida then it is time to get worried, I wouldn't be surprised to see that result depress the Democrat vote in States like Arizona even. Florida always has a big say in an election cycle and this will be no different. Thankfully the campaign is paying attention to Florida and doesn't get on the it doesnt matter train.

    Edit: I should also point out again that in my opinion it's over, his goose is cooked and at minimum I see Biden getting 335 EC votes will is obviously plenty

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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    #8862
    CorkRed93
    Registered Users Posts: 3,588 ✭✭✭CorkRed93


    How do people see TX going with this insane turnout?


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    #8863
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,107 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    Still red ultimately. I did say a couple of weeks back it was going blue but that was my overly optimistic enthusiasm with how awful trump is as a president and a candidate but it will still be a very tough nut to crack for the Democrats.

    Maybe down ballot it could provide some help but who knows, ultimately I think texas stays red this cycle, the sheer fact that its a battleground at all tells you how awful a job trump has done. More turnout usually good for the Dems but I'd be surprised.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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    #8864
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,226 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Texas and Georgia are mirror images of each other in polling terms. All but 2 polls give Texas to Trump and Georgia to Biden. If either fall to Biden, the GOP are in serious trouble, not just this election.


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    #8865
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,107 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    I think trump has a real shot in Minnesota and that's where he has put a lot of money the last week spending more there than he did in the previous 3 weeks combined I believe, couple that with his win with the rule change re the voting ballots and it's gonna be a close one for sure. Think Clinton just carried it marginally but again she was an awful candidate (would have been a grand president) but one to watch.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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    #8866
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,107 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    Water John wrote: »
    Texas and Georgia are mirror images of each other in polling terms. All but 2 polls give Texas to Trump and Georgia to Biden. If either fall to Biden, the GOP are in serious trouble, not just this election.

    Georgia being in play is massive for the democrats, I think JO has a real shot at that senate seat and they could very well flip the state blue which would make up for the loss of Minnesota (if that happens)

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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    #8867
    L1011
    Registered Users Posts: 68,150 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    StringerBell wrote: »
    I think trump has a real shot in Minnesota and that's where he has put a lot of money the last week spending more there than he did in the previous 3 weeks combined I believe, couple that with his win with the rule change re the voting ballots and it's gonna be a close one for sure. Think Clinton just carried it marginally but again she was an awful candidate (would have been a grand president) but one to watch.

    Throwing money at something doesn't always have the desired effect. Trump has been up to 12% off in some recent polling and not been even drawing in any polls.


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    #8868
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,031 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    StringerBell wrote: »
    I disagree, Florida is very much a bell weather. So much can be gauged by how Biden does in that State.

    I have no issue with placing PA above Florida in terms of importance to Biden but the comments that Florida doesn't matter are completely ludicrous to me. Voting will close in Florida and the rest of the country out west will still be voting, energising or demoralising voters in other States is very much part and parcel of the US election that is held across different timezones.

    If Biden wins Florida thats the job done, thats the bell weather that it is over for Trump and will have an impact on his support across the country and will also have a big impact on Senate races and House races particularly in the western states of the US, and Trump wins, and wins well in Florida then it is time to get worried, I wouldn't be surprised to see that result depress the Democrat vote in States like Arizona even. Florida always has a big say in an election cycle and this will be no different. Thankfully the campaign is paying attention to Florida and doesn't get on the it doesnt matter train.

    Edit: I should also point out again that in my opinion it's over, his goose is cooked and at minimum I see Biden getting 335 EC votes will is obviously plenty

    I think we have a different definition for "bell weather".

    Honestly I'm not even looking at the polling in Florida. It carries no real importance and it's a basket case .

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #8869
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,031 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    StringerBell wrote: »
    I think trump has a real shot in Minnesota and that's where he has put a lot of money the last week spending more there than he did in the previous 3 weeks combined I believe, couple that with his win with the rule change re the voting ballots and it's gonna be a close one for sure. Think Clinton just carried it marginally but again she was an awful candidate (would have been a grand president) but one to watch.

    If Trump takes MN it's all over for Biden, he'll lose in a landslide. The polling is completely wrong and he hasn't a hope.

    Fivethirtyeight five Trump a 5% chance and Biden is ahead by 12 points on average. If that's wrong, a lot of other things are wrong and Biden is gone.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #8870
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,226 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    PA is important if the election is very tight. More than likely tough the contest will be decided before it's counted.

    MN isn't really in play IWT. Even Trafalgar poll which is skewed to GOP gives it to Biden. If its in play Biden is in real trouble. 538 give Trump a 1 in 20 chance.


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    #8871
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,561 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    duploelabs wrote: »
    Can Biden do it without FL and PA?

    Yeah — he could do it with GA, AZ, MI, MN, and WI even if Trump took TX, FL, and PA.


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    #8872
    DK224
    Registered Users Posts: 324 ✭✭DK224


    L1011 wrote: »
    Throwing money at something doesn't always have the desired effect. Trump has been up to 12% off in some recent polling and not been even drawing in any polls.
    This is indeed true, the amount of money Biden has spent in Texas which has long been regarded as a holy grail state for the Dems to win was obscene this cycle. Add to that the amount he's spent in Florida.

    If he comes out of both these states empty handed after all the early hype (even the "A+" Monmouth Polls having him up by 6 in Florida this week) it could be a worrying sign.


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    #8873
    CorkRed93
    Registered Users Posts: 3,588 ✭✭✭CorkRed93


    https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1322602843661021184?fbclid=IwAR1imI9GiCuAcvBMoSj8FXFIC24tUmpB-lWlKgN7q_vBQ9d0rYL52i-6s6Q


    Expect to see plenty more of this.


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    #8874
    froog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    i still don't fully get how a single state can be so important. why is Pennsylvania so crucial this year? can't either candidate win without it?


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    #8875
    Timberrrrrrrr
    Registered Users Posts: 25,458 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    CorkRed93 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1322602843661021184?fbclid=IwAR1imI9GiCuAcvBMoSj8FXFIC24tUmpB-lWlKgN7q_vBQ9d0rYL52i-6s6Q


    Expect to see plenty more of this.

    Just goes to show how scared they are, they know they are going to lose by a massive margin and are doing everything they can to rig it.


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    #8876
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,226 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    It's one of the states with big pop that can go either way and thus with its large delegate number swing the EC. Only Fl and Tx would have more.


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    #8877
    martingriff
    Registered Users Posts: 10,746 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    Can anyone suggest a website to look at for all the elections not just the president election


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    #8878
    alchemist33
    Registered Users Posts: 10,969 ✭✭✭✭alchemist33


    Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »
    Just goes to show how scared they are, they know they are going to lose by a massive margin and are doing everything they can to rig it.

    If the Democrats win all before them, surely some sort of electoral reform has to be on the cards, to stop all this uncertainty about whats valid, to stop people having to queue for hours to vote. From a European perspective, it's mental. Maybe it's more at state level action has to happen though.


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    #8879
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,799 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    martingriff wrote: »
    Can anyone suggest a website to look at for all the elections not just the president election

    Five Thirty Eight has info on pretty much everything going on

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo


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    #8880
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,226 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    martingriff wrote: »
    Can anyone suggest a website to look at for all the elections not just the president election

    538

    Yes its the ind states who oversee the election process, but many Dem states are poor too incl NY.


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    #8881
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    froog wrote: »
    i still don't fully get how a single state can be so important. why is Pennsylvania so crucial this year? can't either candidate win without it?

    Basically it's a swing state that has a decent amount of electoral votes.

    This diagram from 538 illustrates it pretty well. If you get all of the states and line them up end to end in order of their likely support for each candidate (based on polls)
    5HILjNz.png

    They term the state the puts one of the candidates over the crucial 270 vote margin as the "tipping point state". As you can see they currently see Pennsylvania as the most likely state to be the tipping point state.

    Texas and Florida have more electoral votes than Pennsylvania but in a universe where the Democrats are winning either of those then they likely have already won Pennsylvania given the current respective polling in those states.


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