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Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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  • Options
    #8702
    mandrake04
    Registered Users Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Derek Zoolander wrote: »
    Are there any questions about why the cases have been consistently higher than the swabs this week / is it because of private or German testing that are included in cases but not in swabs

    No its probably POC

    When you take a swab its inserted into VTM the and its sent to a lab SRA and the specimen reception enters your details to the Labware (Lab software) the VTM is then poured into a tube with a barcode because labs are very dependent on barcodes as nearly all instruments use them to verify what's its sampling is the correct sample. Once the testing is finished the result is sent to the host, this means anyone who has access to the results software can review the result its also easy for the lab staff to filter and see how many positive swabs are pending...and feed this into the dashboard.

    A positive swab might just means a swab tested positive its not yet deemed a case until it been released/Approved, sometimes there are retests and possibly both oropharyngeal and nasopharyngeal might be tested to the same patient.


    The testing seems to ramped up but I guess is because of more availability of equipment

    Your POC or (point of care) like GeneXpert 2 or 4 is a portable device that can be transported in a back of car can be used at a Point of Care like a hospital, medical centre or Nursing home. And can give a realtime result in 45 mins.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=531204&stc=1&d=1604109793

    But since the swab is mixed and Pipetted directly into a cartridge it doesn't go to a lab it and isn't entered into the HSE Labware system, if you test positive it can be reported directly.

    So it is possible that more cases are detected that are not related to the HSE dashboard. I think the whole positive swabs on the dashboard is just PR spin to make the thing look fuctional.


  • Options
    #8703
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Risteard81 wrote: »
    True Republican - not Unionist.

    Really you claiming not so long ago to be very happy about the London government ignoring the way your province voted. Sounds very unionist like to me.


  • Options
    #8704
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users Posts: 5,764 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    No its probably POC

    When you take a swab its inserted into VTM the and its sent to a lab SRA and the specimen reception enters your details to the Labware (Lab software) the VTM is then poured into a tube with a barcode because labs are very dependent on barcodes as nearly all instruments use them to verify what's its sampling is the correct sample. Once the testing is finished the result is sent to the host, this means anyone who has access to the results software can review the result its also easy for the lab staff to filter and see how many positive swabs are pending...and feed this into the dashboard.

    A positive swab might just means a swab tested positive its not yet deemed a case until it been released/Approved, sometimes there are retests and possibly both oropharyngeal and nasopharyngeal might be tested to the same patient.


    The testing seems to ramped up but I guess is because of more availability of equipment

    Your POC or (point of care) like GeneXpert 2 or 4 is a portable device that can be transported in a back of car can be used at a Point of Care like a hospital, medical centre or Nursing home. And can give a realtime result in 45 mins.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=531204&stc=1&d=1604109793

    But since the swab is mixed and Pipetted directly into a cartridge it doesn't go to a lab it and isn't entered into the HSE Labware system, if you test positive it can be reported directly.

    So it is possible that more cases are detected that are not related to the HSE dashboard. I think the whole positive swabs on the dashboard is just PR spin to make the thing look fuctional.
    So, just curious, do the operators of the POC machines make a note of the negative tests? I assume the same for private tests. The positivity rate depends on the total number of tests. At the start we had more positive swabs than positive cases (based on the same individual tested twice), we're now at a point where positive cases are more than positive swabs, by the same margin.
    Do the POC machines feed in the total number of tests into the system?

    If 10% of our cases are coming from POC testing, but they don't attribute to our swab count, it's reason to believe they don't report the number of tests also. Meaning the positivity rate could be out by as much.

    I think we need simpler way:
    20,000 tests conducted today
    19,000 persons tested
    1,000 positive cases
    Positivity rate of 5.26% and not 5%


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    #8705
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    You’re brainwashed by muppets following flawed models if you really believe that.

    We were never going to have 5000 cases a day or 250000 deaths.

    Glad to see we have a epidemiology expert in the thread.

    We were posting 1200 cases a day not too long ago. Is it beyond your comprehension that if trends worsened due to inaction that that number couldn't rise to 5k plus?

    Where does the 25k deaths projection come from btw? Be good to see link predicting that.


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    #8706
    mandrake04
    Registered Users Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    So, just curious, do the operators of the POC machines make a note of the negative tests? I assume the same for private tests. The positivity rate depends on the total number of tests. At the start we had more positive swabs than positive cases (based on the same individual tested twice), we're now at a point where positive cases are more than positive swabs, by the same margin.
    Do the POC machines feed in the total number of tests into the system?

    I don't know for sure, but POC by their nature are outside a lab environment they are a rapid test that gives a result result within 45 minutes on the spot. It might be why there are more cases than +ve swabs.

    positive swabs and the positivity rate is kind of irrelevant when your actual cases are more than your positive swabs.


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    #8707
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users Posts: 5,764 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    I don't know for sure, but POC by their nature are outside a lab environment they are a rapid test that gives a result result within 45 minutes on the spot. It might be why there are more cases than +ve swabs.

    positive swabs and the positivity rate is kind of irrelevant when your actual cases are more than your positive swabs.

    That's an understatement. Going by what you have mentioned, and the fact historically (without rapid tests) ~12% of positive tests didn't result in a positive case (assuming they were retests) we're now in a position where more people are testing positive than positive tests.

    I'd assume we (the public) only get a sliver of the details, but the powers to be have all the info needed (number of tests, positive results, positive cases, total number of tests etc...)


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    #8708
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users Posts: 5,764 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    WoollyRedHat wrote: »
    Glad to see we have a epidemiology expert in the thread.

    We were posting 1200 cases a day not too long ago. Is it beyond your comprehension that if trends worsened due to inaction that that number couldn't rise to 5k plus?

    Where does the 25k deaths projection come from btw? Be good to see link predicting that.

    Sweden is a good one to look at, so may hold them up in so many ways.
    Low cases cause of community immunity, that's that latest (or it was until a week ago).
    Anyway, they went from 1291 a day to 3396 in 8 days. I'm sure without restrictions, we would have certainly went the same way.


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    #8709
    mandrake04
    Registered Users Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    That's an understatement. Going by what you have mentioned, and the fact historically (without rapid tests) ~12% of positive tests didn't result in a positive case (assuming they were retests) we're now in a position where more people are testing positive than positive tests.

    I'd assume we (the public) only get a sliver of the details, but the powers to be have all the info needed (number of tests, positive results, positive cases, total number of tests etc...)

    Its possible that more frontline workers and nursing home residents that require an urgent on the spot test are testing positive now.

    thats just my opinion


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    #8710
    niallo27
    Registered Users Posts: 16,011 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    MD1990 wrote: »
    What are you on about.
    They all had some restrictions as well.
    They'll now probably need far longer than 4 weeks.

    I dont know people find it so hard to grasp that you let the virus run riot it will eventually overwhelm any healthcare system in Europe.
    That means no operations for many people or treatments for cancers or urgent care.
    That is going to be a priority than opening pubs for people.

    It is a terrible time but lockdowns have to be done for now.
    Ive no idea why some people are so shocked. Anyone thinking logically could see winter would be awful

    What has any of what I said got to do with that, I never said their shouldn't be a lockdown across Europe.


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    #8711
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Belgium going through the stratosphere. Might be a weekend to avoid the news. :eek: We can speculate all we like whether NPHET's advice was too much too soon but all of evidence suggests the government were right to throw the kitchen sink at it the way we did.

    531206.png

    https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1322322355134341122?s=20


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    #8712
    seamusk84
    Registered Users Posts: 880 ✭✭✭seamusk84


    I usually go to Brugge every December the weekend or two before Xmas with my wife for a nice break...Jaysus this really is some s”@&ty year.

    2021 ain’t looking much better either. Very grim situation.


  • Options
    #8713
    mandrake04
    Registered Users Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Belgium going through the stratosphere. Might be a weekend to avoid the news. :eek: We can speculate all we like whether NPHET's advice was too much too soon but all of evidence suggests the government were right to throw the kitchen sink at it the way we did.

    ummm.

    Do you reckon this could be a problem?

    531207.PNG


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    #8714
    GazzaL
    Registered Users Posts: 1,395 ✭✭✭GazzaL


    There'll thankfully be a bit of normality this evening for the kids, they can't wait to meet their friends and go trick or treating.


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    #8715
    PowerToWait
    Registered Users Posts: 1,775 ✭✭✭PowerToWait


    GazzaL wrote: »
    There'll thankfully be a bit of normality this evening for the kids, they can't wait to meet their friends and go trick or treating.


    Good man, nice and subtle this time.


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    #8716
    manniot2
    Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭manniot2


    GazzaL wrote: »
    There'll thankfully be a bit of normality this evening for the kids, they can't wait to meet their friends and go trick or treating.

    I know you’re probably joking but I do wonder why kids are being stopped from T or T. Especially the smaller ones. As far as I can see they are mingling/playing/sharing every day as is. Certainly in our estate anyway.


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    #8717
    pc7
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,051 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    We weren’t going to bring ours out, the lady next door collared our little one and said knock today for treats. I said ‘aw they can’t this year’, she told them to climb over the wall! I’m hoping it’s raining. We had planned old school games and them knocking the doors inside the house for goodies.


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    #8718
    thelad95
    Registered Users Posts: 7,812 ✭✭✭thelad95


    manniot2 wrote: »
    I know you’re probably joking but I do wonder why kids are being stopped from T or T. Especially the smaller ones. As far as I can see they are mingling/playing/sharing every day as is. Certainly in our estate anyway.

    I'm going to print a Covid positive text result and pin it to my door to keep the snotty little cretins away.

    Happy Halloween!


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    #8719
    MarkY91
    Registered Users Posts: 7,067 ✭✭✭MarkY91


    manniot2 wrote: »
    I know you’re probably joking but I do wonder why kids are being stopped from T or T. Especially the smaller ones. As far as I can see they are mingling/playing/sharing every day as is. Certainly in our estate anyway.

    Would you be ok with your kids holding sweets given by 100 different people in one night? Surely nobody needs to even be told that their kids should not be trick or treating this year?


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    #8720
    manniot2
    Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭manniot2


    MarkY91 wrote: »
    Would you be ok with your kids holding sweets given by 100 different people in one night? Surely nobody needs to even be told that their kids should not be trick or treating this year?

    I would have absolutely no problem to be honest, but I appreciate my risk appetite is different to others, especially on here.


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    #8721
    iamwhoiam
    Registered Users Posts: 16,122 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    I put little treats in paper sandwich bags three days ago . The bags are in a big plastic bowl . I will leave the bowl in the porch and each child can take one bag .
    I haven’t touched the bags or treats for 3 days.
    I wasn’t intending of opening the door and they can help themselves


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    #8722
    Blondini
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭Blondini


    GazzaL wrote: »
    There'll thankfully be a bit of normality this evening for the kids, they can't wait to meet their friends and go trick or treating.

    So now you approve of masks, eh?


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    #8723
    Worztron
    Registered Users Posts: 8,676 ✭✭✭Worztron


    If someone had CV19 (unknowingly) and wears a mask - can they still pass it on by just breathing?

    Mitch Hedberg: "Rice is great if you're really hungry and want to eat two thousand of something."



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    #8724
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Worztron wrote: »
    If someone had CV19 (unknowingly) and wears a mask - can they still pass it on by just breathing?

    Maybe


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    #8725
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    WoollyRedHat wrote: »
    Glad to see we have a epidemiology expert in the thread.

    We were posting 1200 cases a day not too long ago. Is it beyond your comprehension that if trends worsened due to inaction that that number couldn't rise to 5k plus?

    Where does the 25k deaths projection come from btw? Be good to see link predicting that.

    It was Sam who stated there could be 5000 cases a day by month end. Wrong!

    NPHET predicted 80 - 100 in ICU. Wrong.

    It was our Taoiseach himself who stated that 250K, not 25K, could potentially die. Very very wrong.

    Using flawed models and predicting worst case scenarios off of them models is not doing this country any use. Half a million are out of work because of this.

    And closing the middle section in Aldi hardly avoids thousands of cases.


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    #8726
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Worztron wrote: »
    If someone had CV19 (unknowingly) and wears a mask - can they still pass it on by just breathing?
    Just keep the door locked!


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    #8727
    khalessi
    Registered Users Posts: 6,215 ✭✭✭khalessi


    Deleted User wrote: »
    It was Sam who stated there could be 5000 cases a day by month end. Wrong!

    NPHET predicted 80 - 100 in ICU. Wrong.

    It was our Taoiseach himself who stated that 250K, not 25K, could potentially die. Very very wrong.

    Using flawed models and predicting worst case scenarios off of them models is not doing this country any use. Half a million are out of work because of this.

    And closing the middle section in Aldi hardly avoids thousands of cases.

    I agree about Aldi. But Sam et al predicted these numbers if nothing was done. Something is being done, level 3 followed by level 5 restrictions.


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    #8728
    odyssey06
    Registered Users Posts: 28,562 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Worztron wrote: »
    If someone had CV19 (unknowingly) and wears a mask - can they still pass it on by just breathing?

    Potentially yes. Masks will stop the main droplets but your typical surgical masks are still 'leaky', so some viral load could escape. It'd come down to how long you were in close contact for and ventilation in the room.
    Also, how much viral load being shed - presymptomatic people seem to shed more than those who remain totally asymptomatic, but it's not certain.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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    #8729
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    khalessi wrote: »
    I agree about Aldi. But Sam et al predicted these numbers if nothing was done. Something is being done, level 3 followed by level 5 restrictions.
    McConkey has been changing his mind like the weather since February. He's also a Zero COVID zealot. The handy thing about predicting at this time is that you can point to public health actions taken as a reason for why you were way off. Even Nolan admitted last night that Level 3 works. Remember it was 2500 cases, 400+ in hospital and 80-100 ICU by today that brought us Level 5.


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    #8730
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    khalessi wrote: »
    I agree about Aldi. But Sam et al predicted these numbers if nothing was done. Something is being done, level 3 followed by level 5 restrictions.

    Plus we're in a markedly better situation than the vast majority of our neighbors. From a health and most likely an economic perspective too.

    In fact it almost feels like we should have some great lesson to teach the world, but we don't quite understand how we're doing so well ourselves.


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    #8731
    rp79
    Registered Users Posts: 26 ✭rp79


    The icu prediction of 80-110 by October 31 was made on October 15 when cases numbers at that time would impact icu numbers today So it seems they have overestimated numbers needing icu treatment which they stated would be 6-7 per 1,000 cases. I’d like to know what icu submissions per 1,000 actually is at this stage. Numbers in icu should peak in the next week or two based on lag of peak cases but doesn’t look like nphets prediction here will materialise.


This discussion has been closed.
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