Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

mloc123 · 28-10-2020 02:54PM

khalessi wrote: »

Maybe they didn't, I knoe some parents who were tested and negative so ehh that would mean.....??? Ohh they could have gotten it from another kid??

Would mean kids didn't come home and give it to them.. maybe kids don't drive spread :pac:

ACitizenErased · 28-10-2020 02:55PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

It will be interesting to see the swab data later and compare with case numbers.

I am still at a loss to understand how in the last 2 weeks we've had 219 more cases than positive swabs.

Possibility of private testing being reported to the HPSC. Those swabs wouldn't be included in the HSE count, the cases would simply be reported.

28-10-2020 02:56PM

Boggles wrote: »

Parents who have been monk like in their approach with the only weak point is their children who spend the days indoors with 100s of others finally copping on that maybe they didn't get infected off the petrol pump handle and it was the kids who brought it into the house and now they are insisted the kids get tested?

Just a thought.

Or maybe since a route of community transmission was cut off 3 weeks ago with level 3, the family home and school is the the one that remains. People make the mistake that some here believe transmission does not occur in schools. What people actually try to articulate is that schools are not the driver, the problem is caused by what happens in the community. As greater restrictions impact that transmission in the community , there will be a lag on what happens in the schools, and that is what I contend is happening in the data. Its only once the reduced community cases starts to see less children entering schools with the virus, that the rate among schools kids will fall. What this should show is a slower rate of decline in these age groups, followed by the parents age groups, with the decline led by those groups without children

PokeHerKing · 28-10-2020 02:56PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Nobody is saying in school transmission is not occuring. Anyone saying that is living in fantasy land.
People are saying the transmission in school is lower than in the community and doesn't appear to be driving spread.

There's many differences between a classroom and a house party. To compare the 2 is so far out of touch it would be funny if we weren't in the midst of a pandemic.

In the context of a virus thats transmitted through aerosols there's really not much difference between 30 people in a classroom or 30 in a kitchen/dining room of your average 3bed.

Thinking there's much of a difference between the two is whats funny/sad.

wirelessdude01 · 28-10-2020 02:57PM

Boggles wrote: »

Petrol Pump Handle or Doorbell.

Wasn't the kids.

The mam and dad actually hadn't left the house in nearly 5months. But yeah Leo thinks they passed their time pressing their own doorbell.

Fr_Dougal · 28-10-2020 02:57PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Guessing they are referring to Kantutk and Ballinteer.

And Lucan. All in the space of what, a week?

is_that_so · 28-10-2020 02:59PM

Michael McGrath admitting this Level 5 is for a "decent" December and Christmas!

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1028/1174425-michael-mcgrath-interview/

mloc123 · 28-10-2020 02:59PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

The mam and dad actually hadn't left the house in nearly 5months. But yeah Leo thinks they passed their time pressing their own doorbell.

Hadn't left the house... At all? Really?

28-10-2020 02:59PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

It will be interesting to see the swab data later and compare with case numbers.

I am still at a loss to understand how in the last 2 weeks we've had 219 more cases than positive swabs.

Swab data is to midnight on the previous day, while cases are those notified to noon that day i believe. Could be missing out on swabs tested and reported on the day of results? Once the lag was cleared for whatever reason, this offset may be what remains?

Boggles · 28-10-2020 03:00PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Or maybe since a route of community transmission was cut off 3 weeks ago with level 3, the family home and school is the the one that remains. People make the mistake that some here believe transmission does not occur in schools. What people actually try to articulate is that schools are not the driver, the problem is caused by what happens in the community. As greater restrictions impact that transmission in the community , there will be a lag on what happens in the schools, and that is what I contend is happening in the data. Its only once the reduced community cases starts to see less children entering schools with the virus, that the rate among schools kids will fall. What this should show is a slower rate of decline in these age groups, followed by the parents age groups, with the decline led by those groups without children

Ugggggg.

This complete separation of school / community is actually a thing now, established?

The school is the absolute heart of the community, almost everything in the community revolves around it, but in terms of a deadly pathogen that is highly infectious, it's where people congregate the most indoors.

28-10-2020 03:01PM

khalessi wrote: »

Maybe they didn't, I know some parents who were tested and negative so ehh that would mean.....??? Ohh they could have gotten it from another kid??

This mistake that is most often made is that the people ye are arguing against are arguing there is zero transmission in schools. I you believe this, this may be why you believe you are winning the argument

28-10-2020 03:01PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Meanwhile Angela Merkel says Germany's health system faces being overwhelmed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/oct/28/coronavirus-live-news-intensive-care-units-in-france-could-reach-extreme-saturation-in-two-weeks

I already posted statistics collected daily from their health service which shows they are nowhere near it. Government are just being prudent and asking the Public to do their bit.

Non solum non ambulabit · 28-10-2020 03:03PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Possibility of private testing being reported to the HPSC. Those swabs wouldn't be included in the HSE count, the cases would simply be reported.

Ok that makes sense. So how many private swabs are being taken each day i wonder.

If the positivity rate of private tests is about 5% also that would indicate 40K private swabs over the last 2 weeks.

Wolf359f · 28-10-2020 03:08PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

In the context of a virus thats transmitted through aerosols there's really not much difference between 30 people in a classroom or 30 in a kitchen/dining room of your average 3bed.

Thinking there's much of a difference between the two is whats funny/sad.

30 people wearing masks vs not wearing masks.
A quite room vs a room with music playing and people talking over each other.
A room with all seated apart vs people just walking around mingling up close.
A room that gets sanitized regularly throughout the day vs, god know's what.
A room with 1 person in charge, reminding people to sanitize and keep their distance vs a free for all.

To compare a classroom to a house party is just nuts. Do you know how idiotic that comes across?

wadacrack · 28-10-2020 03:09PM

https://twitter.com/vincekearney/status/1321453570714193920

c.p.w.g.w · 28-10-2020 03:11PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/vincekearney/status/1321453570714193920

Positivity rate of 22%?

Boggles · 28-10-2020 03:14PM

Deleted User wrote: »

This mistake that is most often made is that the people ye are arguing against are arguing there is zero transmission in schools.

Well no. According to the "data" there has been 10 cases, out of roughly 1 million humans?

In realty what that means is you roughly have the same chance of transmitting or catching Covid in schools than you had when Covid didn't actually exist.

0.001%. Statistically irrelevant.

It's unbelievable.

quokula · 28-10-2020 03:18PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

30 people wearing masks vs not wearing masks.
A quite room vs a room with music playing and people talking over each other.
A room with all seated apart vs people just walking around mingling up close.
A room that gets sanitized regularly throughout the day vs, god know's what.
A room with 1 person in charge, reminding people to sanitize and keep their distance vs a free for all.

To compare a classroom to a house party is just nuts. Do you know how idiotic that comes across?

Also, the same group of people in that room every day with no outside contamination, vs 30 people going to a house party one night and potentially separately going to 30 different house parties and mingling with a total of 900 different people the next night.

polesheep · 28-10-2020 03:18PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

And Lucan. All in the space of what, a week?

Don't be fretting about any of that. As long as everyone's great granny is safe that's all that matters.

PokeHerKing · 28-10-2020 03:23PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

30 people wearing masks vs not wearing masks.
A quite room vs a room with music playing and people talking over each other.
A room with all seated apart vs people just walking around mingling up close.
A room that gets sanitized regularly throughout the day vs, god know's what.
A room with 1 person in charge, reminding people to sanitize and keep their distance vs a free for all.

To compare a classroom to a house party is just nuts. Do you know how idiotic that comes across?

I pass my local school every morning on a walk, crowds of kids crushing in the doors and not a mask in sight. I see grown a$$ adults unable to keep masks on or wear them correctly. But these kids apparently enter the classroom and all of a sudden mask etiquette is 100%?

There wasn't much room to spare in class during my schooldays. But ill assume classrooms have doubled in floorspace since then.

Similar with spread in restaurants/pubs/transport even with restrictions. Youre indoors in an enclosed space and not everyone will adhere to the restrictions etc.

All comes back to the simple fact that schools will spread it just as efficiently as any other indoor setting in society yet its the only one to remain open.

is_that_so · 28-10-2020 03:25PM

Study on predictive value of repeat testing of NBA players. Just 68 people in the study though.

SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics that report viral RNA concentrations can be used to determine a patient's stage of infection, but this potential has not yet been realized due to a lack of prospective longitudinal data to calibrate such inferences.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/12/20-3733_article

mloc123 · 28-10-2020 03:27PM

Boggles wrote: »

Well no. According to the "data" there has been 10 cases, out of roughly 1 million humans?

In realty what that means is you roughly have the same chance of transmitting or catching Covid in schools than you had when Covid didn't actually exist.

0.001%. Statistically irrelevant.

It's unbelievable.

Wait, where are they saying there are 10 cases?

Wolf359f · 28-10-2020 03:28PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I pass my local school every morning on a walk, crowds of kids crushing in the doors and not a mask in sight. I see grown a$$ adults unable to keep masks on or wear them correctly. But these kids apparently enter the classroom and all of a sudden mask etiquette is 100%?

There wasn't much room to spare in class during my schooldays. But ill assume classrooms have doubled in floorspace since then.

Similar with spread in restaurants/pubs/transport even with restrictions. Youre indoors in an enclosed space and not everyone will adhere to the restrictions etc.

All comes back to the simple fact that schools will spread it just as efficiently as any other indoor setting in society yet its the only one to remain open.

That's an incorrect statement. The positivity rate in close contacts in school is ~2.5% vs the community at ~10%. It's not spreading as effectively in schools as in the community. The figures back that up.

And yes you will then say they are not testing in schools, despite the figures saying they are. Then they won't be testing enough, which would be true, however if you reduce the testing you would expect a higher positivity rate.

Widdensushi · 28-10-2020 03:28PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

It will be interesting to see the swab data later and compare with case numbers.

I am still at a loss to understand how in the last 2 weeks we've had 219 more cases than positive swabs.

Have we had cases denotified?

Boggles · 28-10-2020 03:30PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I pass my local school every morning on a walk, crowds of kids crushing in the doors and not a mask in sight. I see grown a$$ adults unable to keep masks on or wear them correctly. But these kids apparently enter the classroom and all of a sudden mask etiquette is 100%?

There wasn't much room to spare in class during my schooldays. But ill assume classrooms have doubled in floorspace since then.

Similar with spread in restaurants/pubs/transport even with restrictions. Youre indoors in an enclosed space and not everyone will adhere to the restrictions etc.

All comes back to the simple fact that schools will spread it just as efficiently as any other indoor setting in society yet its the only one to remain open.

The disease is not airborne in schools.

From the DOE document

Remember that the virus is spread by droplets and is not airborne so physical separation is enough to reduce the risk of spread to others even if they are in the same room

stephenjmcd · 28-10-2020 03:31PM

NI hospitals now over capacity with 221 awaiting admission to hospitals.

They have 13 ICU beds available.

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1321457474843672579?s=19

Wolf359f · 28-10-2020 03:32PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

Have we had cases denotified?

43 denotifications over the past week, but there's no way of knowing when those 43 were initially reported.

ACitizenErased · 28-10-2020 03:33PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Swab data is to midnight on the previous day, while cases are those notified to noon that day i believe. Could be missing out on swabs tested and reported on the day of results? Once the lag was cleared for whatever reason, this offset may be what remains?

Other way around

KrustyUCC · 28-10-2020 03:34PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Michael McGrath admitting this Level 5 is for a "decent" December and Christmas!

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1028/1174425-michael-mcgrath-interview/

I don't believe him

Tony & NPHET won't allow a decent Christmas going on past reluctance to ease restrictions

Boggles · 28-10-2020 03:36PM

mloc123 wrote: »

Wait, where are they saying there are 10 cases?

Apologies in reality it's no where near 10, maybe 1 or 2.

Covid-19 transmitted in fewer than 10 schools – Nphet

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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