Schools closed until February? (part 3)

wirelessdude01 · 27-10-2020 07:46PM

The positivity rate in schools makes no sense at all.

Those kids who don't shed it at the same rate as adults are actually higher.

2.7% for primary against 2.1% for secondary.

irishblessing · 27-10-2020 07:48PM

meeeeh wrote: »

Because there is no need to close schools. Numbers are already falling. The point of lockdown is to close as few things as possible and still get the numbers down.

Similarly to the person who compared us to Belgium, we are not even close to the trajectory Belgium (or Czechia) is on. Their numbers are extremely high while ours started falling from approx 1200 per day.

From RTE article today:

The Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan told a press briefing that "we are not at a stage that we can draw any conclusion that there is a trend from the fewer number of cases".

Although there have been fewer than 1,000 cases a day over the past four days, we "definitely cannot say that we have turned that particular corner".

meeeeh · 27-10-2020 07:49PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

The positivity rate in schools makes no sense at all.

Those kids who don't shed it at the same rate as adults are actually higher.

2.7% for primary against 2.1% for secondary.

Younger kids have less distancing measures and don't wear masks.

Masks are supposed to be very effective at reducing infections. You are not comparing like with like.

meeeeh · 27-10-2020 07:52PM

irishblessing wrote: »

From RTE article today:

The Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan told a press briefing that "we are not at a stage that we can draw any conclusion that there is a trend from the fewer number of cases".

Although there have been fewer than 1,000 cases a day over the past four days, we "definitely cannot say that we have turned that particular corner".

We can probably say we are not Belgium. We went with restrictions quicker and harder, if we end up in position of Belgium then the restrictions don't work.

However I will bet you that whatever dr. Holohan is saying the numbers will fall. The difference from level 5 is not even showing yet.

Higgins5473 · 27-10-2020 07:52PM

meeeeh wrote: »

Because there is no need to close schools. Numbers are already falling. The point of lockdown is to close as few things as possible and still get the numbers down.

Similarly to the person who compared us to Belgium, we are not even close to the trajectory Belgium (or Czechia) is on. Their numbers are extremely high while ours started falling from approx 1200 per day.

This will hit you hard and may be a shock to the system. The schools have been closed since Friday and numbers have dropped since then.

If we are to believe the HSE claim that there is a 1-2 turnaround results on test then the closing of the schools are a bigger indicator that the spread of the virus is rampant and as a result of schools rather than we are succeeding in containment due to lockdown measures.

This is coming from a parent primarily who wants nothing more than schools to stay open.

8k71ps · 27-10-2020 07:53PM

meeeeh wrote: »

Because there is no need to close schools. Numbers are already falling. The point of lockdown is to close as few things as possible and still get the numbers down.

Similarly to the person who compared us to Belgium, we are not even close to the trajectory Belgium (or Czechia) is on. Their numbers are extremely high while ours started falling from approx 1200 per day.

To close as few things as possible absolutely isn't the point of a circuit breaker lockdown, it's to cut down community transmission. If the community transmission rates aren't significantly decreased than the moment we open up the country we'll see the rates soar pretty quickly

They also have a much larger population, but I take the point.

HerrKuehn · 27-10-2020 08:01PM

Higgins5473 wrote: »

This will hit you hard and may be a shock to the system. The schools have been closed since Friday and numbers have dropped since then.

If we are to believe the HSE claim that there is a 1-2 turnaround results on test then the closing of the schools are a bigger indicator that the spread of the virus is rampant and as a result of schools rather than we are succeeding in containment due to lockdown measures.

This is coming from a parent primarily who wants nothing more than schools to stay open.

Today is Tuesday. If the schools were making a difference over such a short time frame, surely we would see the effect every week after the weekend?

8k71ps · 27-10-2020 08:15PM

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Today is Tuesday. If the schools were making a difference over such a short time frame, surely we would see the effect every week after the weekend?

There is the possibility that there is a psychological aspect to it. If you're not stuffed like sardines in a room 5 days of every week, you're less likely to think you have covid if you do feel under the weather

taffy lulu · 27-10-2020 08:20PM

Nothing to see here, trot on!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/one-of-country-s-main-labs-unable-to-process-covid-19-tests-over-weekend-due-to-staff-shortages-1.4389343

wirelessdude01 · 27-10-2020 08:22PM

Anyone else watching the presser get the idea that the top table seemed to be under the impression that these public health teams for schools that the department are making a big deal about putting in place now have always been there?

wirelessdude01 · 27-10-2020 08:24PM

taffy lulu wrote: »

No wonder there are a lack of results from this weekend! It’ll be the same next weekend. Nothing to see here, trot on!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/one-of-country-s-main-labs-unable-to-process-covid-19-tests-over-weekend-due-to-staff-shortages-1.4389343

They do approx 600 tests per day so isn't a significant story at all. As far as I'm aware they passed their workload to an external lab.

Thats me · 27-10-2020 08:30PM

Higgins5473 wrote: »

The schools have been closed since Friday and numbers have dropped since then.

Not that simple

Delay between triggering factor and response in the stats is huge. New cases started dropping before L5 began - that was presumably response on L3 restrictions introduced couple weeks earlier. Similarly results of L5 and school closure will be delayed. And it will be difficult to establish on which factors it depends - L5/schools/weather/whatever.

MerlinSouthDub · 27-10-2020 08:31PM

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Today is Tuesday. If the schools were making a difference over such a short time frame, surely we would see the effect every week after the weekend?

Tuesday's results relate to swabs processed on Monday, which relate to tests taken on Sunday. The nonsense that numbers have dropped because schools have closed is bizarre.

8k71ps · 27-10-2020 08:33PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

They do approx 600 tests per day so isn't a significant story at all. As far as I'm aware they passed their workload to an external lab.

They were doing 10k tests a week, I think that's the mean average perhaps? Tbqh it'll be fairly obvious since there'll be a testing backlog so we'll see during the week

8k71ps · 27-10-2020 08:34PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Tuesday's results relate to swabs processed on Monday, which relate to tests taken on Sunday. The nonsense that numbers have dropped because schools have closed is bizarre.

That's not necessarily true if the midterm decreases the number of students or related contacts being tested.

MerlinSouthDub · 27-10-2020 08:39PM

8k71ps wrote: »

That's not necessarily true if the midterm decreases the number of students or related contacts being tested.

What is not necessarily true? It's completely clear that schools being closed for mid term could not possibly have impacted yesterday's swab results, it is far far too early to tell

HerrKuehn · 27-10-2020 08:41PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Tuesday's results relate to swabs processed on Monday, which relate to tests taken on Sunday. The nonsense that numbers have dropped because schools have closed is bizarre.

Oh, I know that. There are some ridiculous claims on here. I presume there are few if any science teachers on the thread? The testing 1 child who is positive results in a positivity rate of 1 in 30 was a personal favourite.

MerlinSouthDub · 27-10-2020 08:43PM

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Oh, I know that. There are some ridiculous claims on here. I presume there are few if any science teachers on the thread? The testing 1 child who is positive results in a positivity rate of 1 in 30 was a personal favourite.

Ha ha. Yes, sorry, I was agreeing with you and supporting your point.

wirelessdude01 · 27-10-2020 08:47PM

8k71ps wrote: »

They were doing 10k tests a week, I think that's the mean average perhaps? Tbqh it'll be fairly obvious since there'll be a testing backlog so we'll see during the week

The NVRL was never doing 10k tests a day

Higgins5473 · 27-10-2020 09:22PM

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Today is Tuesday. If the schools were making a difference over such a short time frame, surely we would see the effect every week after the weekend?

Incubation period is according to our experts 2-4 days. So no, weekends will not make a huge amount of difference.

khalessi · 27-10-2020 09:31PM

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Oh, I know that. There are some ridiculous claims on here. I presume there are few if any science teachers on the thread? The testing 1 child who is positive results in a positivity rate of 1 in 30 was a personal favourite.

Mine too, since I was being sarcastic, but glad to entertain

vid36 · 27-10-2020 11:26PM

More European developments, Italy has moved 75% of secondary school classes online.Speculation that Macron will announce a 4 week lockdown tomorrow moving secondary schools to online classes.

Thats me · 27-10-2020 11:26PM

Higgins5473 wrote: »

Incubation period is according to our experts 2-4 days. So no, weekends will not make a huge amount of difference.

What is incubation period in the case of COVID? 1 week or 2 of symptom-less stage is not unusual. During the symptom-less period infected person does spread a virus. When significant symptoms appearing - it was likely virus is already killed by immune system to that stage and immune system started to kill debris left after virus, including organs containing this debris. But i'm not sure about incubation period - does it exists and how long it takes between cells infected and they start producing new generations of the virus.

Thats me · 27-10-2020 11:43PM

HerrKuehn wrote: »

The testing 1 child who is positive results in a positivity rate of 1 in 30 was a personal favourite.

So what is your expectation what could be result of testing 30 children of 30?

meeeeh · 28-10-2020 12:37AM

Thats me wrote: »

So what is your expectation what could be result of testing 30 children of 30?

If we follow the positivity rate in a the general testing which is currently just under 6% you are looking at 2 out of 30.

However since positivity rate is less than 3% in schools that means there is good chance only three quarters of one child would be positive. Testing 30 out of 30 would also mean those who are less of a close contact and less likely to be infected would be tested then I suspect positivity rate would be even less for schools. So maybe one half of child would test positive.

This is fun. In any case the more you test less the positivity rate would be (if we take it that the reproduction no. is 1).

blanch152 · 28-10-2020 01:03AM

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Oh, I know that. There are some ridiculous claims on here. I presume there are few if any science teachers on the thread? The testing 1 child who is positive results in a positivity rate of 1 in 30 was a personal favourite.

That was completely bizarre and made me fear for the future of our kids. If that is evidence of the quality of thinking among teachers, closing schools and homeschooling might well be best for the country.

blanch152 · 28-10-2020 01:18AM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

The positivity rate in schools makes no sense at all.

Those kids who don't shed it at the same rate as adults are actually higher.

2.7% for primary against 2.1% for secondary.

Not at all, makes perfect sense when you think about it. Second-level students are better able to follow protocols and avoid spreading the disease, even if they are more likely to be infectious.

Four year olds are more like the ASTI - they don’t understand what needs to be done.

On a serious note, great news that the positivity rate is one-third that in the community, it shows that schools are not contributing to the spread of COVID in any meaningful way, and therefore should remain open.

Blondini · 28-10-2020 06:46AM

blanch152 wrote: »

Not at all, makes perfect sense when you think about it. Second-level students are better able to follow protocols.

Thanks for that. I like to start the day with a good chuckle.

It's obvious you've never observed teenagers' behaviour in their natural habitat, from a professional perspective.

8k71ps · 28-10-2020 07:19AM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

The NVRL was never doing 10k tests a day

Yes they were [url] https://www.ucd.ie/newsandopinion/news/2020/april/10/hsedoublescovid-19testingcapacitythroughucdnvrlto10000followinggmiagreement/ [/url]

8k71ps · 28-10-2020 07:21AM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

What is not necessarily true? It's completely clear that schools being closed for mid term could not possibly have impacted yesterday's swab results, it is far far too early to tell

It's not necessarily true that schools don't have an impact if less teachers and students are being tested over the mid term than they would be normally. This could be due to for instance psychological factors or something similar. It is a possibility but like we can just wait till the end of the week of if that's true

Schools closed until February? (part 3)

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