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Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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Comments

  • #6572
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,722 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    This is fantastic. If we can drop the number of swaps completed, just like we’ve done over the bank holiday weekend, by +3,000 everyday we’ll soon have zero positive swabs.

    That's rubbish, the lower positivity rate is as important a number as the amount of positives, but that wouldn't lend itself to the doomsday view many seem to favour on here.


  • #6573
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,722 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    His prediction was based on the existing case growth at the time he mentioned it.

    Since then we have had the effects of level 3. The effects of additional restrictions tagged on to level 3. The effects of anticipatory behaviour ahead of level 5.

    Surely most of that data was inputted, otherwise it's a very basic projection


  • #6574
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    His prediction was based on the existing case growth at the time he mentioned it.

    Since then we have had the effects of level 3. The effects of additional restrictions tagged on to level 3. The effects of anticipatory behaviour ahead of level 5.
    I like Nolan but if these models are going to be way out they are not much use to anyone save for that "attaboy" we'll get for "anticipatory behaviour". That 6 weeks then begins to look like an overreaction.


  • #6575
    branie2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,342 ✭✭✭✭branie2


    Numbers are down a good bit again


  • #6576
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,748 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    The number of contacts people have has dropped, and the numbers of positivises is consistently dropping. There's a good chance there's less tests done due to reduced demand.


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  • #6577
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,100 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    His prediction was based on the existing case growth at the time he mentioned it.

    Since then we have had the effects of level 3. The effects of additional restrictions tagged on to level 3. The effects of anticipatory behaviour ahead of level 5.

    His modelling is worthless if its out by such a margin


  • #6578
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,475 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    alentejo wrote: »
    I suspect the reductions are not necessarily with Level 3, rather than 2 weeks ago, the general population where very conscious of NEPID's recommendation for putting the country into level 5. I think Tony H referred to this as "anticipatory behavior".

    So the reductions seen now is a mix of Level 3 with anticipatory behavior driving down numbers.

    I'd hope that would mean they trust the general public more given they've generally proven to be good boys and girls but I doubt it.


  • #6579
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    normanoffside wrote: »
    32 deaths this month in Nursing homes

    Out of how many deaths were there in october, anyone off the top of their head

    Edit: 89 deaths in Ireland since 1st October just checked.

    So roughly a third, similar to most of Europe currently where deaths in nursing homes are about 25-33% of total deaths in the second wave rather than 50-66% of total covid deaths back in April


  • #6580
    Goldrickssan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 387 ✭✭Goldrickssan


    What happens to all the existing and extra contact tracers the HSE are hiring now if we get this under control again?

    Sack them until we get overwhelmed again? Seems like something HSE would do.


  • #6581
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    I'll report back on Sunday but his prediction is looking very far from reality

    Those worse case scenarios were used by NPHET to advocate for level 5

    Those predictions were made for the scenario if we continued at level 2. *sigh*

    The fact is that we would be in the last week of level 5 restrictions now, if we went with the NPHET guidelines of Oct 4th.

    But the politicians (who have just finished chapter 2 of the ladybird Book of Epidemiology) waited 2 weeks for the cases to double before going with the science.


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  • #6582
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    Numbers going in the right direction it seems. Good to see. November is a hibernation month anyway so I'm not that put out.


  • #6583
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,595 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    Surely most of that data was inputted, otherwise it's a very basic projection

    It was a basic projection.

    He explained it clearly when he said it.


  • #6584
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Out of how many deaths were there in october, anyone off the top of their head

    78 I think


  • #6585
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,595 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Stheno wrote: »
    78 I think

    He is looking for a total number of deaths from all causes so he can say look covid isn't a big deal.


  • #6586
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    He is looking for a total number of deaths from all causes so he can say look covid isn't a big deal.

    No I wasnt, I waslooking for total covid deaths

    worldometer says 89 deaths notified in October so far but I dont know if worldometer has redistributed historical ones or counts all notified ones as october deaths


  • #6587
    brick tamland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Think government said they would review after 4 weeks. I'd say not very likely at that stage but hopefully after the 6 weeks.

    If the numbers keep going they way they are I'd be hugely surprised if it goes on longer than 4 weeks. The clamour to get business open 2 weeks earlier at the busiest time of the year will be too much.


  • #6588
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    His modelling is worthless if its out by such a margin

    Says the “armchair epidemiologist” who seems blessed with the astounding ability to fully assimilate and transcend within weeks what infectious disease specialists have learnt over decades.


  • #6589
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,595 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    No I wasnt, I waslooking for total covid deaths

    My apologies.


  • #6590
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    No I wasnt, I waslooking for total covid deaths

    worldometer says 89 deaths notified in October so far but I dont know if worldometer has redistributed historical ones or counts all notified ones as october deaths

    It was definitely 70 something 78 or 79 as I remember thinking it was around 40% of the total


  • #6591
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    brick tamland wrote: »
    If the numbers keep going they way they are I'd be hugely surprised if it goes on longer than 4 weeks. The clamour to get business open 2 weeks earlier at the busiest time of the year will be too much.
    It will be down to NPHET and it will be a test of just how reliable that 100 cases a day metric is of their commitment to Level 3.


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  • #6592
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 92,228 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    440Hertz wrote: »
    The Cork case load is still too high. I’m assuming the Level 3+ in Dublin is showing results.

    Cork: 542,868 130 cases
    Dublin: 1.345m 228 cases.

    Scaled up to Dublin population that’s 322 cases.

    Cork yo yo up and down, it's a worry

    No matter what people tell you, words and ideas can change this World



  • #6593
    lbj666
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭lbj666


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    His modelling is worthless if its out by such a margin

    If you plot a graph that's shows a trend on the way up are you really going give expert analysis predicting cases were going to level off and drop and if so what would the basis be?

    When he modelled it figures were on a clear rise, there was no evidence based on Dublin Donegal Cavan etc that a country wide level 3 was going to slow or stabilise the rise.


  • #6594
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,563 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    His modelling is worthless if its out by such a margin

    You don't seem to have done much modelling, or really understand its purpose.


  • #6595
    Benimar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,794 ✭✭✭Benimar


    is_that_so wrote: »
    It will be down to NPHET and it will be a test of just how reliable that 100 cases a day metric is of their commitment to Level 3.

    It’s down to the Government. If it was all ‘down to NPHET’ we would have been in Level 5 two weeks earlier.


  • #6596
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    is_that_so wrote: »
    It will be down to NPHET and it will be a test of just how reliable that 100 cases a day metric is of their commitment to Level 3.

    No. It will be down to the Cabinet after they take on board NPHETs advice


  • #6597
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    lbj666 wrote: »
    If you plot a graph that's shows a trend on the way up are you really going give expert analysis predicting cases were going to level off and drop and if so what would the basis be?

    When he modelled it figures were on a clear rise, there was no evidence based on Dublin Donegal Cavan etc that a country wide level 3 was going to slow or stabilise the rise.
    At this stage it's less about Level 3, which has an effect but seems to be slow, than the numbers that accompany the model urging Level 5.


  • #6598
    BobbyMalone
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 325 ✭✭BobbyMalone


    Goldrickssan wrote: »
    What happens to all the existing and extra contact tracers the HSE are hiring now if we get this under control again?

    Sack them until we get overwhelmed again? Seems like something HSE would do.


    I think it was Holohan who said that he wasn't overly worried about the 'missed' cases due to the collapse and from what some knowledgeable posters here have said, this can be dealt with by people contacting their close contacts themselves.


    Could probably divert all the contact tracers elsewhere, where they're needed.


  • #6599
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Stheno wrote: »
    No. It will be down to the Cabinet after they take on board NPHETs advice
    Yeah, but NPHET need to be on board with a change of level. If they are not the Cabinet is far less likely to move unilaterally.


  • #6600
    mountgomery burns
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭mountgomery burns


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    His prediction was based on the existing case growth at the time he mentioned it.

    Since then we have had the effects of level 3. The effects of additional restrictions tagged on to level 3. The effects of anticipatory behaviour ahead of level 5.

    In the letter on the 15th of October, the modelling estimates 1800-2300 daily cases by 31st October, with 80-110 in ICU.

    Level 5 is less than a week old and Level 3 was deemed ineffective based on the above.

    The decline in the last few days may prove to be temporary respite, but if not then serious scrutiny should be applied to those models and advice afforded before any return to level 5 is considered after Christmas.


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  • #6601
    lbj666
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭lbj666


    brick tamland wrote: »
    If the numbers keep going they way they are I'd be hugely surprised if it goes on longer than 4 weeks. The clamour to get business open 2 weeks earlier at the busiest time of the year will be too much.

    And isnt that the paradox of the whole thing? If level 5 is eased off earlier, say in time for that black Friday bollocks, 3-4 weeks later if it's on a definite rise again we'll be going into Xmas holiday period with an incidence level to make authorities very nervous.


This discussion has been closed.
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