Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

AlphaDelta1 · 27-10-2020 06:54PM

normanoffside wrote: »

32 deaths this month in Nursing homes

So sad. What an awful way to end your days

shinzon · 27-10-2020 06:54PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

It might matter to thousands who were made unemployed if the justification for the move is suspect.

It seemed the government felt it was justified at the time tbh.

Shin

Funsterdelux · 27-10-2020 06:57PM

Jeez L5 and mid term really kicking in now

MerlinSouthDub · 27-10-2020 06:57PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Wow Israel saying it like it is. I wonder will Leo still quote them as to what can be achieved.
Of course Irish schools are different.

The issue of schools being open is now a settled issue in Ireland. We now know that level 3 is enough to keep numbers under control (falling gradually), so there is no reason to close schools.

Plumbthedepths · 27-10-2020 06:57PM

shinzon wrote: »

It seemed the government felt it was justified at the time tbh.

Shin

Seemed St Tony felt it was justified and was calling for it even before his first day back. Many here was calling for level 5 even when the Government wanted to give level 3 a chance. Looks like the modelling presented by Nphet may also be very wrong.
Ah well at least the banks will help out troubled mortgage holders eh?

is_that_so · 27-10-2020 06:57PM

shinzon wrote: »

It seemed the government felt it was justified at the time tbh.

Shin

NPHET more so. The government were very reluctant to agree. If this is a trend downwards, questions will begin to emerge about the length of the plan in the next 2-4 weeks.

Wolf359f · 27-10-2020 06:57PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Wow Israel saying it like it is. I wonder will Leo still quote them as to what can be achieved.
Of course Irish schools are different. My 'Hunch' starting to be backed up by science. Let's hope our fearless leaders act on this pertinent information.
I won't hold my breath.

https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1321144800666652674?s=20

Compare Ireland, 2.5% in kids vs 10% positivity in adults with close contacts. Total opposite than Israel. I'm sure there's some significant difference between schools in Ireland and Israel. Could be the fact they were closed in Israel?

PowerToWait · 27-10-2020 06:58PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Philip Nolan's midelling prediction of the number of cases notified daily would be in the range of 1,800 – 2,500 cases by October 31st is looking to be very far off the mark going on current trend

Is this a serious post, by an adult?

Jinglejangle69 · 27-10-2020 06:58PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Jeez L5 and mid term really kicking in now

How do people still think case numbers kick in a few days after mid term???

Like after all this time please Educate yourself.

Jinglejangle69 · 27-10-2020 06:59PM

is_that_so wrote: »

NPHET more so. The government were very reluctant to agree. If this is a trend downwards, questions will begin to emerge about the length of the plan in the next 2-4 weeks.

But once Leo looked wrong.

That's all that seemed to matter to some.

PowerToWait · 27-10-2020 06:59PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Compare Ireland, 2.5% in kids vs 10% positivity in adults with close contacts. Total opposite than Israel. I'm sure there's some significant difference between schools in Ireland and Israel. Could be the fact they were closed in Israel?

Yeah, the difference is they're not testing kids in schools in the majority of schools. No test, no case.

LilyShame · 27-10-2020 07:01PM

The only reason the numbers are falling is because HSE track trace cannot keep up with the level of contact tracing. The only reason!! Altho it makes The Doctor look good... And detracts from any unsavoury news item about cervical screening.

billyhead · 27-10-2020 07:02PM

When is the 1st review of level 5 restrictions and do posters feel we will be moved back to level 3 than?

CIARAN_BOYLE · 27-10-2020 07:03PM

billyhead wrote: »

When is the 1st review of level 5 restrictions and do posters feel we will be moved back to level 3 than?

Not a chance. 4 weeks into level 5. We are about 1 week now.

caveat emptor · 27-10-2020 07:04PM

Wow, primary school much more likely to be asymptomatic. Called it 2.5 days ago.
The pink bar is the proportion asymptomatic. If this does not shock you then you don't understand it.

70% of aged 3-5 were asymptomatic

25/10/20

https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1321078141410889730?s=20

caveat emptor wrote: »

So what goes into a positivity rate?

It is a function of two main things I would think.

1) The amount of people tested
2) The probability of some who who is tested having the virus.

Kids are more likely to have mild symptoms or be asymptomatic. Therefore they are less likely to be tested.

In the context of schools we know that close contacts are not the same as in the wider world. I.e if someone tests positive we don’t then go on and test the whole group who spent 7 hours in doors for the last 5 days or whatever. You could argue there is a high probability that this would return many more asymptomatic cases if so. Contact tracing breakdown is affecting our numbers massively. My mate calls me and says you should get tested , “yeah defo but I feel grand” Asymptomatics missed = spread continues.

I think the main driver of this is the average number of contacts per household. The households with kids can’t keep this number down. Now we can mitigate in schools but not eliminate the risk.

If cases don’t drop or. Increase 4 weeks after midterm it’ll be obvious.

This is already happening.

https://twitter.com/samhold21632854/status/1320121347826208768?s=21

Eod100 · 27-10-2020 07:04PM

billyhead wrote: »

When is the 1st review of level 5 restrictions and do posters feel we will be moved back to level 3 than?

Think government said they would review after 4 weeks. I'd say not very likely at that stage but hopefully after the 6 weeks.

is_that_so · 27-10-2020 07:04PM

billyhead wrote: »

When is the 1st review of level 5 restrictions and do posters feel we will be moved back to level 3 than?

Supposed to be in about 4 weeks and the answer to the other one depends on NPHET.

Funsterdelux · 27-10-2020 07:04PM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

How do people still think case numbers kick in a few days after mid term???

Like after all this time please Educate yourself.

alentejo · 27-10-2020 07:04PM

I suspect the reductions are not necessarily with Level 3, rather than 2 weeks ago, the general population where very conscious of NEPID's recommendation for putting the country into level 5. I think Tony H referred to this as "anticipatory behavior".

So the reductions seen now is a mix of Level 3 with anticipatory behavior driving down numbers.

blowitupref · 27-10-2020 07:05PM

Could or should be a much lower number reported today. 185 are backlog cases included in 720 number.

MelbourneMan · 27-10-2020 07:05PM

LilyShame wrote: »

The only reason the numbers are falling is because HSE track trace cannot keep up with the level of contact tracing. The only reason!! Altho it makes The Doctor look good... And detracts from any unsavoury news item about cervical screening.

Tracing resources are quite ample for the current demand on its services.

Strumms · 27-10-2020 07:06PM

GT89 wrote: »

Not a good look if they are making tik tok videos whilst the hospitals are supposedly overwhelmed. It goves the insight into the job that they spend most of the day doing f all and are bored at work. Also most employers have a social media at work policy which means posting stuff of your workplace in uniform is prohibited.

Doesn’t give that insight at all.

You’d want to be requiring a psychological evaluation to form a view that healthcare workers “spend most of their day doing fûck all” based on a minute or so video of them enjoying part of their day, a minuscule part of their day.

If they work for say 8 hours, 400 working minutes after lunch and tea break, they are seen having fun for two minutes on YouTube, maybe you need to find other things to be upset about, seriously. All they have to deal with and people are criticizing them for a two minute bit of craic on YouTube... Jesus wept.

They go and in covid times are going seriously over and above, yet they need to endure criticism because they want to relax and have a laugh for a minute ?, right.

is_that_so · 27-10-2020 07:06PM

alentejo wrote: »

I suspect the reductions are not necessarily with Level 3, rather than 2 weeks ago, the general population where very conscious of NEPID's recommendation for putting the country into level 5. I think Tony H referred to this as "anticipatory behavior".

So the reductions seen now is a mix of Level 3 with anticipatory behavior driving down numbers.

It's a nice nebulous concept although he's been inclined to refer to other behaviour of late.

is_that_so · 27-10-2020 07:08PM

LilyShame wrote: »

The only reason the numbers are falling is because HSE track trace cannot keep up with the level of contact tracing. The only reason!! Altho it makes The Doctor look good... And detracts from any unsavoury news item about cervical screening.

Average contacts now down to about 3, was up at 20 and 50 at times. It can deal with that.

landofthetree · 27-10-2020 07:09PM

Just seen a Belgium hospital on TV. God it looked rough. Like something you would see in Sweden in the 80s.

blowitupref · 27-10-2020 07:09PM

7-day average is 936.1, this time last week was 1165.6

MerlinSouthDub · 27-10-2020 07:11PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Wow, primary school much more likely to be asymptomatic. Called it.
The pink bar is the proportion asymptomatic. If this does not shock you then you don't understand it.

And we have data in Ireland (where most of us live) which shows we can keep numbers under control with schools open. Congratulations to our government for making the right choices.

KrustyUCC · 27-10-2020 07:12PM

PowerToWait wrote: »

Is this a serious post, by an adult?

I'll report back on Sunday but his prediction is looking very far from reality

Those worse case scenarios were used by NPHET to advocate for level 5

CIARAN_BOYLE · 27-10-2020 07:14PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

I'll report back on Sunday but his prediction is looking very far from reality

Those worse case scenarios were used by NPHET to advocate for level 5

His prediction was based on the existing case growth at the time he mentioned it.

Since then we have had the effects of level 3. The effects of additional restrictions tagged on to level 3. The effects of anticipatory behaviour ahead of level 5.

caveat emptor · 27-10-2020 07:15PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

And we have data in Ireland (where most of us live) which shows we can keep numbers under control with schools open. Congratulations to our government for making the right choices.

LOLZ I live in the free state utopia amen.

So I think people would want to know if their kids were going to contract something that causes long term morbidity. We may have to revisit this decision in 5 years before we pop the champagne there Merlin.

How many people who were close contacts of schools did have issues?
All those nana and grandads.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Comments