Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

stephenjmcd · 26-10-2020 03:17PM

normanoffside wrote: »

T Cell immunity in asymptomatic infections and the fact that Antibodies wain even in those that got sick would mean that they missed more than 1/3rd

From the article,

Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, were found in 18 per cent of staff at Tallaght Hospital who participated in the study.

This figure rose to 20 per cent for staff with roles involving more patient contact, and was 13 per cent for those with less patient interaction.

Before the study, 12 per cent of participants had been diagnosed with Covid-19 at some point, based on a positive swab result.

When this group was excluded, the seroprevalence among those never confirmed to have infection was 7.5 per cent.

Away With The Fairies · 26-10-2020 03:19PM

So you can still buy cigarettes, alcohol and lottery tickets but can't buy clothes?

And in fact by selling alcohol, they are encouraging house parties something they have tried to put a ban on but let's face it, those who want to ignore it will ignore it. I said it before and I'll say it again but they need to make house parties dry.

440Hertz · 26-10-2020 03:19PM

If this level 5 set of rules works & puts us into a better situation than seems to be unrolling across Europe, it will have been the right call.

The situation in France, Spain and much of the continent seems to be starting to spin very rapidly out of control and their reactions are slower and look like they’ll be a severe knee jerk when the death rate spikes again.

I was iffy about this a few weeks ago and it seemed extreme, but it is starting to look like we may have made a good call on it and could well have headed off a rather dramatic second wave.

I still think they’re being overly harsh on categories of retail. Safety measures are more useful and carrying out safety assessments of what could potentially open, which is something that should be done regardless of how short this is as we aren’t going to cure this in one defined and draconian lockdown. All we are doing is buying time. We need to be lashing resources into research.

Spent a while with Bloomberg on in the background today and if you look at the economic sentiment, it’s the fact that situations are spinning out of control that’s driving market negative sentiment.

My big concern would be that if we let this run riot, we would be seen as a high risk for bond sales and that would impact our ability to fund ourselves.

If we manage it in a serious way, bond investors see it as a pragmatically managed short term disruption and medium to long term recovery and stability.

We need to stop running around like headless chickens on forums, ignore the American insanity and look at this pragmatically and I genuinely think most people, other than in some online bubbles, are doing just that.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 26-10-2020 03:23PM

mohawk wrote: »

He is an elderly man who lives alone. What do you expect for him to do lock the doors and be afraid. A few of our elderly neighbours this time are not sticking to the no household visitors this time as they felt so lonely the last time. My own grandparents in their 80’s are still calling me to make sure I still call over to them. Loneliness is a terrible thing and some older people are more afraid of loneliness then the virus.
Calling him a fûcker who can’t sit tight and be responsible is very harsh and disrespectful.Is there more precautions she can take when in the house? Such as the type of mask she uses.

People have to think bout both sides.

Carwroekes are many cases shuttling from vulnerable person to vulnerable person.

If one person gets it chances are that everyone in the chain will get it. Ppe can limit transmission but judging based on the amount of health care workers who get infected there is no perfect defense.

It's not fair on a careworker who shows up to the house of a vulnerable person to cook his dinner and finds a party in the kitchen. That's extra close contacts for them.

We also have a major problem where older people are not honest about their contacts to their families. I'm aware of cases where the families of vulnerable people have gotten abusive with care workers after a covid diagnosis. As far as the family is concerned the careworker is the only contact with the outside world. The family communicate by Skype or phone only. The care workers are not allowed breach the clients privacy by revealing to the family that their relative had people over regularly.

If an older person wants to breach restrictions that's on them. Please try and do it in a way that careworker coming to your house don't have extra close contacts. Also please make sure your family are aware that you breach restrictions.

tom1ie · 26-10-2020 03:25PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Seek psychiatric help you c*nt.

https://www.mentalhealthireland.ie/

F*ckit, it's worth the ban....

No need for this crap. Relax will ya.

normanoffside · 26-10-2020 03:26PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

When this group was excluded, the seroprevalence among those never confirmed to have infection was 7.5 per cent.

People who have never been confirmed to be infected are less likely to have antibodies and more likely to have T cell immunity.

twowheelsonly · 26-10-2020 03:26PM

robbiezero wrote: »

You get 4 months of lockdown if you obey the rules?
Not great.

The alternative isn't great either, unless you're the type of person that enjoys a couple of weeks or a couple of months in hospital with maybe even a trip to an ICU thrown in. (Or enjoys seeing others in the same situation..)

As rare as it is the other alternative isn't great either for those that are older / vulnerable /unlucky.

eagle eye · 26-10-2020 03:27PM

Pubs being shut is a great thing for our nation imo.
As a former major binge drinker who averaged spending around 20k euro annually for about 15 years I realise how big of a problem drinking in this country has been. I was never alone while drinking and there were plenty of my good friends spending more than me.
I hope it helps a lot of people to walk away from that life. It'll make for a better, richer country if it happens.

I'm not miserable about it, enjoyed most of my time doing it, apart from hangovers, but it's such a waste of a life.

stephenjmcd · 26-10-2020 03:29PM

normanoffside wrote: »

People who have never been confirmed to be infected are less likely to have antibodies and more likely to have T cell immunity.

Yeah quite possibly. Its more so to dispute the study that was done showing prevalence at 1.7% though that study was quite flawed

Stheno · 26-10-2020 03:33PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yeah quite possibly. Its more so to dispute the study that was done showing prevalence at 1.7% though that study was quite flawed

Was it 1.7% that was the prevalence for the small study of a few thousand in Dublin and Sligo?

ChikiChiki · 26-10-2020 03:33PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Seek psychiatric help you c*nt.

https://www.mentalhealthireland.ie/

F*ckit, it's worth the ban....

With that outburst and the context of the post you quoted - you may want to stop throwing stones from that glass house you are currently in.

stephenjmcd · 26-10-2020 03:34PM

Stheno wrote: »

Was it 1.7% that was the prevalence for the small study of a few thousand in Dublin and Sligo?

Yup it was

Funsterdelux · 26-10-2020 03:34PM

Not sure if this is relevant

Five deaths and 727 new Covid-19 cases confirmed in Northern Ireland

bilston · 26-10-2020 03:36PM

727 new cases and 5 new deaths reported in Northern Ireland.

That's the lowest case numbers reported since Oct 6th (obviously Monday data can be lower due to weekend lags).

Still the general picture is that case numbers have now stabilised. Last Monday there 375 cases per 100,000, today it is 362.9, last Monday there had been 7,056 cases in the previous 7 days, today it is 6,828.

So some vaguely positive signs of a stabilisation, probably due to a decrease in Derry/Strabane which is about 10 days ahead of the rest of NI in terms of tougher restrictions.

Unfortunately now the real cost of the big rise in cases is starting to be felt in hospitals and sadly with deaths.

caveat emptor · 26-10-2020 03:38PM

Stheno wrote: »

No idea. That study is likely not relevant in terms of the general population as I would think healthcare workers have a much greater risk of exposure than most

Sorry yeah I meant in the healthcare population not the general.

Other comparable studies internationally have had a much lower seroprevalence to date. Also the proportion of health care workers internationally has been far higher than in other countries (1 /3 here).

There are a myriad of reasons for why that might be but I have and I do wonder if the PPE guidelines are partially responsible. Seeing the outbreaks in Cavan etc. Obviously laps in infection control occur but 1 in every 3 cases being a HCW is massive.

Ficheall · 26-10-2020 03:38PM

eagle eye wrote: »

averaged spending around 20k euro annually for about 15 years I realise how big of a problem drinking in this country has been. I was never alone while drinking and there were plenty of my good friends spending more than me.

What line of work are you in, and are you hiring??

440Hertz · 26-10-2020 03:39PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Not sure if this is relevent

Five deaths and 727 new Covid-19 cases confirmed in Northern Ireland

Relavant yeah and perhaps improving, but still *way* too high for that population base.

That’s the equivalent of 1890 cases in the Republic or 126,578 cases in the USA.

Still a long way to go.

growleaves · 26-10-2020 03:39PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Pubs being shut is a great thing for our nation imo.
As a former major binge drinker who averaged spending around 20k euro annually for about 15 years I realise how big of a problem drinking in this country has been. I was never alone while drinking and there were plenty of my good friends spending more than me.
I hope it helps a lot of people to walk away from that life. It'll make for a better, richer country if it happens.

I'm not miserable about it, enjoyed most of my time doing it, apart from hangovers, but it's such a waste of a life.

Exhibit Z that there is a Prohibitionist streak running through support for these restrictions.

And once again a person who is already married with children is happy for nightclubs, pubs etc. to be gone.

What most posters on this thread are doing right now - micro-analysing statistical gibberish - is a waste of a life.

Away With The Fairies · 26-10-2020 03:39PM

I had to get a covid test done and send my employer proof. Which I don't mind, if that's what they need.

However, what if another member of my household has to go for a test and I have to isolate. Can my employer request their information? I'm not too sure how people would feel being asked that kind of information for a workplace they don't work in.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 26-10-2020 03:40PM

bilston wrote: »

727 new cases and 5 new deaths reported in Northern Ireland.

That's the lowest case numbers reported since Oct 6th (obviously Monday data can be lower due to weekend lags).

Still the general picture is that case numbers have now stabilised. Last Monday there 375 cases per 100,000, today it is 362.9, last Monday there had been 7,056 cases in the previous 7 days, today it is 6,828.

So some vaguely positive signs of a stabilisation, probably due to a decrease in Derry/Strabane which is about 10 days ahead of the rest of NI in terms of tougher restrictions.

Unfortunately now the real cost of the big rise in cases is starting to be felt in hospitals and sadly with deaths.

Hi Bilston

I hope you and yours are well.

Im afraid my view is less positive. 2866 individuals tested means the positivity rate is over 25% which is one of the worst daily positivy rates I've seen in Northern Ireland. Its usually 20-22%.

That said lower test numbers mean a higher proportion of tests are hospital tests as opposed to community tests which would explain the high positivity rate.

I hope your positive view turns out correct.

growleaves · 26-10-2020 03:41PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Not sure if this is relevant

Five deaths and 727 new Covid-19 cases confirmed in Northern Ireland

5 deaths. They'll be begging the British Army to come back to Derry if this continues much longer.

Funsterdelux · 26-10-2020 03:42PM

growleaves wrote: »

5 deaths. They'll be begging the British Army to come back to Derry if this continues much longer.

You mean Londonderrry?

growleaves · 26-10-2020 03:44PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

You mean Londonderrry?

I think we should throw another London in there.

LondonLondonDerry sounds better

Stheno · 26-10-2020 03:45PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Hi Bilston

I hope you and yours are well.

Im afraid my view is less positive. 2866 individuals tested means the positivity rate is over 25% which is one of the worst daily positivy rates I've seen in Northern Ireland. Its usually 20-22%.

That said lower test numbers mean a higher proportion of tests are hospital tests as opposed to community tests which would explain the high positivity rate.

I hope your positive view turns out correct.

Are they possibly missing cases in the community though?

Strumms · 26-10-2020 03:45PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It's done on a European basis surely.

If that’s correct that’s a real bonus. We hopefully could be seeing it months sooner.

eagle eye · 26-10-2020 03:45PM

To all these people saying that kids are fine and not spreading the virus. Has anybody found evidence that the Princeton University/Hopkins study is flawed?

You know the one that found that kids were super spreaders of the virus.

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/09/30/largest-covid-19-contact-tracing-study-date-finds-children-key-spread-evidence

caveat emptor · 26-10-2020 03:47PM

440Hertz wrote: »

If this level 5 set of rules works & puts us into a better situation than seems to be unrolling across Europe, it will have been the right call.

...........

Spent a while with Bloomberg on in the background today and if you look at the economic sentiment, it’s the fact that situations are spinning out of control that’s driving market negative sentiment.

My big concern would be that if we let this run riot, we would be seen as a high risk for bond sales and that would impact our ability to fund ourselves.

If we manage it in a serious way, bond investors see it as a pragmatically managed short term disruption and medium to long term recovery and stability.

We need to stop running around like headless chickens on forums, ignore the American insanity and look at this pragmatically and I genuinely think most people, other than in some online bubbles, are doing just that.

The reality is money is extremely cheap. Never been cheaper. ECB is buying everything hand over fist. I want this to be a reassuring "Don't worry" kinda message for those who may have an irrational fear about 'borrowing'.

The fact is the last financial crash and the actions of the troika need not have happened.

You don't need to be a genius to wonder what way the interest rate is going on bonds.

https://www.independent.ie/business/world/european-central-bank-has-bought-half-of-irish-bond-sales-in-2020-39599363.html

The European Central Bank (ECB) has purchased more than 50pc of the €21.5bn borrowed by the State so far this year. The ECB's total holdings of Irish government bonds will be around €48bn by the end of this year, or roughly a third of the total outstanding, according to research by Davy chief economist Conall MacCoille.

mloc123 · 26-10-2020 03:48PM

Stheno wrote: »

Are they possibly missing cases in the community though?

100%

With a average of 20-25% positivity rate for the last 2-3 weeks, they are missing a lot of cases

Ficheall · 26-10-2020 03:48PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

what if another member of my household has to go for a test and I have to isolate. Can my employer request their information? I'm not too sure how people would feel being asked that kind of information for a workplace they don't work in.

Why would they care? I don't see the need for all this * hide who has covid * bs.

Olden day lepers:
"Let's give the lepers a bell so healthy people can avoid them and not get infected"
"No, no, what about gdpr? We can't violate anyone's privacy like that, just let them go about their business as usual, and if they infect healthy people, so be it..."

niallo27 · 26-10-2020 03:48PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Pubs being shut is a great thing for our nation imo.
As a former major binge drinker who averaged spending around 20k euro annually for about 15 years I realise how big of a problem drinking in this country has been. I was never alone while drinking and there were plenty of my good friends spending more than me.
I hope it helps a lot of people to walk away from that life. It'll make for a better, richer country if it happens.

I'm not miserable about it, enjoyed most of my time doing it, apart from hangovers, but it's such a waste of a life.

400 quid a week, how many nights were you drinking. You do realise the majority just go out for a laugh and a few pints. Just because you couldn't handle that yourself doesn't mean it should be banned, should we ban fast foods, sugar, cigarettes as well when we are at it.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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