Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Gael23 · 23-10-2020 06:33PM

hmmm wrote: »

I'm hopeful that Level 3 is proving to be the level at which we can hold the numbers steady. This would make sense as it closes the places where superspreading events can happen.

It would mean that after Level 5 has brought the numbers down in a few weeks time, we can run the country at Level 3 until we have vaccines and better treatments. Perhaps 6 months of restrictions.

It's obviously not good for the businesses affected and we will have to support them, but better to find a level we can live at and make the best of it instead of a cycle of opening and rushed lockdowns.

Level 3 for 6 months isn’t really sustainable

bb1234567 · 23-10-2020 06:33PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Italy really pushing those big numbers now, even after they picked up pace in September they had some suppression, but now it's building very fast.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1319667404486619136?s=20

The most worrying thing about Italy is that it's positivity rate has been increasing by over 1% every consecutive day for a week now

I don't understand what it is about Western Europe that makes this virus so spread so ridiculously quickly. Of course we know why deaths are pretty high in Western Europe because of an elderly population, but it doesnt explain why so many people are catching it. Western Europe is densely populated but you would think with Western standard of living with pretty spacious homes and small families and not overly densly populated cities that infection would not spread so quickly, especially with the many precautions also being taken in addition

Widdensushi · 23-10-2020 06:33PM

You can smell the disappointment in the air on here of people disappointed with a good number.

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 06:33PM

froog wrote: »

contact tracing collapses = less people who might be infected get tested = less positive cases.

That's not how it works, at all. Contact tracing collapsing leads to a rise in community transmission = rise in cases.
By your logic if we just stop tracing then positive cases just drop.

ShayNanigan · 23-10-2020 06:34PM

jojofizzio wrote: »

A reason to celebrate in itself....George Lee reporting positive news!!

Looks like my neighbours think so too as they already started... Saw a taxi pull up in front of their house with flower arrangements and cakes being carried in earlier, now cars arriving and people outside sounding quite cheerful. Not sure if it's a wedding, a birthday party or what but clearly a celebration. Doubt they're celebrating Level 5!

CIARAN_BOYLE · 23-10-2020 06:34PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What does the track and trace (HSE) have to do with reported cases (HPSC)? There's zero correlation.

I've said it before so I'll just quote.

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I believe the estimation is that it's unimportant.

Let's say we missed contact tracing 2k people over the weekend and asked them to do their own contact tracing. An average person has 5.6 contacts. The average positivity rate among contacts is 13%.

11,200 people who should have gotten a test over the last few days didn't get one. This probably means 1450 cases was missed over a few days. Now they may have been picked up again by people doing their own contact tracing. Or people doing their own contact tracing misses close contacts and instead tests a lot of extra casual contacts.

Either way I feel that the last few days of results are heavily distorted and am refusing to get too tied into the stats of them.

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 06:35PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I've said it before so I'll just quote.

The fact you're assuming that no contacts came forward for testing says it all tbh.

manniot2 · 23-10-2020 06:35PM

froog wrote: »

track and trace has completely collapsed. that easily accounts for the sudden 300-400 drop.

sorry all, but it's clear as day what's happened.

Good. Long may it continue

jackboy · 23-10-2020 06:35PM

CruelSummer wrote: »

2. Will Dr Tony Holohan be questioned tonight on the Late Late Show as to how a nursing home in Galway has become overrun with Covid? How have these areas not been the focus of NPHET's strategy? Are staff there tested routinely? If not, why not?.

He is not going to be questioned, it’s a propaganda piece.

Sardonicat · 23-10-2020 06:35PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What does that have to do with the HPSC underreporting swabs for today? There was 1000+ positive swabs today. With a decreasing positivity rate.

I don't understand you.

Blondini · 23-10-2020 06:35PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

You can smell the disappointment in the air on here of people disappointed with a good number.

Don't sense that at all.

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 06:36PM

Sardonicat wrote: »

I don't understand you.

There was 1000 positive swabs today. 777 reported. Cases aren't miraculously decreasing in massive numbers.

manniot2 · 23-10-2020 06:36PM

ShayNanigan wrote: »

Looks like my neighbours think so too as they already started... Saw a taxi pull up in front of their house with flower arrangements and cakes being carried in earlier, now cars arriving and people outside sounding quite cheerful. Not sure if it's a wedding, a birthday party or what but clearly a celebration. Doubt they're celebrating Level 5!

We might look back in a few years and laugh at comments we made like this. Hopefully anyway

froog · 23-10-2020 06:37PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That's not how it works, at all. Contact tracing collapsing leads to a rise in community transmission = rise in cases.
By your logic if we just stop tracing then positive cases just drop.

contact tracing results in a large number of asymptomatic positives being caught that otherwise wouldn't. do you seriously not understand that?

Russman · 23-10-2020 06:37PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That's not how it works, at all. Contact tracing collapsing leads to a rise in community transmission = rise in cases.
By your logic if we just stop tracing then positive cases just drop.

Would it not work the other way also though ? If tracing collapses fewer people will be informed they (may) need a test so you’d potentially be missing asymptomatic cases, no ?

mloc123 · 23-10-2020 06:37PM

ShayNanigan wrote: »

Looks like my neighbours think so too as they already started... Saw a taxi pull up in front of their house with flower arrangements and cakes being carried in earlier, now cars arriving and people outside sounding quite cheerful. Not sure if it's a wedding, a birthday party or what but clearly a celebration. Doubt they're celebrating Level 5!

Well if you have an issue with it, report to the guards

CIARAN_BOYLE · 23-10-2020 06:38PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The fact you're assuming that no contacts came forward for testing says it all tbh.

Some will have but a lot will have been missed.

Upto 1450 will have been missed. Some will have been caught but a lot of them won't have.

I won't celebrate good figures with a cloud hanging over it.

Happydays2020 · 23-10-2020 06:39PM

The house parties are continuing. On LUAS earlier - group of lads with about 6 slabs of beer. Absolutely no shame.

Budweiser FFS.

spookwoman · 23-10-2020 06:40PM

froog wrote: »

contact tracing results in a large number of asymptomatic positives being caught that otherwise wouldn't. do you seriously not understand that?

Exactly, if a more random selection of people get tested then the chances of positives drops compared to people who are known to be close contacts how are more likely to be infected.

stephenjmcd · 23-10-2020 06:40PM

From reading last few posts everyone is assuming that none of the people who would have been told by a confirmed case that their a close contact have come forward for testing.

Now you'd hope that those who were told by a confirmed case that they were a contact, have contacted their GPs, based on what GPs were reporting earlier in the week they got swamped by people ringing up looking for a test after being told they were close contacts.

Maybe its just my hope that people have a bit of social responsibility that they'd have gone for a test, so track and trace might not have missed out on too many in the end and maybe others are reckless. We'll soon see

Anyway regardless we're still doing around 17k tests a day during the week.

Arghus · 23-10-2020 06:40PM

It's certainly great to see a dramatically lower number of notified cases, but I'm holding off on popping the champagne corks yet. Whether the issues of testing and tracing and questions about lab availability are actually as serious as they say, or are overblown and misunderstood by the media is not something I can figure out, but such a dramatic fall when there appears to be such whisperings of chaos and collapse with the tracing system, and, what is it, another roughly 300 positive swabs unaccounted for? I'd be cautious enough reading too much into todays figure tbh.

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 06:41PM

froog wrote: »

contact tracing results in a large number of asymptomatic positives being caught that otherwise wouldn't. do you seriously not understand that?

I honestly can't believe you think the entire contact tracing system has collapsed. There's being realistic and there's being ignorant.

mloc123 · 23-10-2020 06:41PM

People saying Level 3 is working now, is likely true.. But, IMO level 3 will see cases level out and maybe even drop slightly but that rate is probably still too high for hospitals to cope longer term.

I *assume* the plan will be - level 5 to get the rates back in the 1-200 cases a day range and then level 3 to keep it there.

Sardonicat · 23-10-2020 06:42PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There was 1000 positive swabs today. 777 reported. Cases aren't miraculously decreasing in massive numbers.

I still don't understand you at all. The 777 are up to midnight last night, yes?

stephenjmcd · 23-10-2020 06:42PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

The house parties are continuing. On LUAS earlier - group of lads with about 6 slabs of beer. Absolutely no shame.

Budweiser FFS.

Should be fined for just having budweiser

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 06:42PM

I can't believe there's actually people on here who think none of the cases identified last weekend have notified their contacts. Like seriously?

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 06:42PM

Sardonicat wrote: »

I still don't understand you at all. The 777 are up to midnight last night, yes?

Cases reported yes, not positive tests.

ShayNanigan · 23-10-2020 06:42PM

manniot2 wrote: »

We might look back in a few years and laugh at comments we made like this. Hopefully anyway

I know... I love a good party as much as anyone and I know people cannot put their entire lives on hold because of a pandemic. Not enjoying the situation at all and kinda hate the fact I get negative feelings because someone is celebrating.

About the numbers, if I didn't know better and had my tinfoil hat on, I'd say someone punched the numbers in before the weekend and got their finger stuck at 7.

:D

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 06:43PM

Russman wrote: »

Would it not work the other way also though ? If tracing collapses fewer people will be informed they (may) need a test so you’d potentially be missing asymptomatic cases, no ?

You're assuming that every single contact at the weekend is not getting tested, a bizarre and unbelievable assumption.

froog · 23-10-2020 06:44PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I can't believe there's actually people on here who think none of the cases identified last weekend have notified their contacts. Like seriously?

who said that?

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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