Share Picks 2020

Cpfm wrote: »

Any view on how much more NCYT has to go? I got in based on your tip, ty, but thinking of adding more...not sure..

In no particular order heres what I think , open to correction on what I say ...
I had to wait months for the stock price to reflect if testing would be needed for a a second wave of Covid. Now we are in the wave 2 and testing is forefront across the world.
A few dodgy diagnostics companies with poor quality products who gained early have been exposed.
NYCT have best in class PCR testing, top quality product.
Contracts and backhanders were being done in The Commons but now contracts are going to the best companies with more scrutiny.
Recent order with the NHS is 400M first shipment with an option on 300M more if they dont screw it up, which I dont think they will.
Market cap was barely reflective of contracts won, thats changing but it still doesnt reflect future earnings.
NCYT bought out one of their suppliers, brought their tech in house, so why do that if they dont think they have a future.
FRance holds 70% of the float but we havent had any major French news. This week their diag panel got added to a French health list week but no news on a major french contract. With French price action maybe someone knows something.
So all the gains are really based on UK and some minor contracts in some other countries.
They have appointed a new broker , I expect to bring in the IIs
Speaking of which some talk that a few funds have bought in last week.
They have not stood still, they expanded into a Winterplex dual covid and influenza test, 2 results in one test.
The CEO is relatively new, seems to have his head on and wants to move to the big table, guide this company off AIM and bring it ot the FTSE.
If not they are a potential buyout.
Ive been following them closely and I have a few goto guys whos opinion I respect, they helped convince me to hold during big dips in the summer, and all those are still positive that there is room to grow.
Follw the 'Trust but Verify' principle.. as in its okay to trust someones opinion but even better if you go and verify the numbers youself.
Also they have had alot of vacancies , for sales, lab technicians and some computer app developers.
I may or may not buy some more, greed is not a virtue I aspire too.
And NCYT were pretty regular with RNS and sales updates , they have been a bit quite , theres news due in the next 2 weeks. Probably positive but will it be positive enough for the stock price. Their investor relations pr dept has been pretty on the ball for 10 months
I cant see it retracing considerably in the coming weeks. IF we could get some news soon on a new contract just to lock in the foundation for these 2 weeks gains we would all rest easier.
They still have to manage the company thru expansion, reagents are in short supply, they are in a compeitive landscape where they are up against big pharma, but so far they have managed to expand Their quality product has gotten them this far, now its up to quality management to get them the next rung up.
Thats more or less a 30,000 foot view of where they sit .
But even with all those positives, things can flip on a dime, bad news, covid cure, a missed covid test , some bad press who knows .

But if COVID is still here mid-late 2021 and we are into an endemic situation where we never get rid of it then NCYT are here for good , in which case we could be looking at 30 or 40 euro IF they continue to execute on contracts won and delive some new contracts and innovative product.

Short term we are safe bar a few tree shakes and some dips, we wont go into single digits. medium term the next month looks positive as Covid cases still spread, longer term I still see potential to multi-bag this.. but we need news , RNS, pr.