Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

CIARAN_BOYLE · 21-10-2020 06:21PM

Derek Zoolander wrote: »

not really - what he's saying is that you'll probably still get most of the positives (if they develop symptoms - big if).... but you'll miss out on the 92% of the contacts that don't test positive - so you'll only catch positives thus increasing the rate...

how linear those population samples are if questionable given we can't predict peoples behaviour or what % are symptomatic.

We will proably going to get the cases but a little later.

The swab numbers over the last few days were low. The positivity was down and this pool wasn't being tested.

cnocbui · 21-10-2020 06:22PM

I am seriously tempted to go to a couple of local supermarkets and take a few photos at lunch time of the social distancing the pupils of the nearby secondary schools engage in. It's closer to 20cm than 200 with no masks of course.

Blondini · 21-10-2020 06:23PM

Jenna James wrote: »

How long will it take for this to be acknowledged and acted upon.

Saving face is ever a priority.

Appalling.

On this thread by certain "experts" ?

Never.

Funsterdelux · 21-10-2020 06:23PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I think the environment is confusing like for like comparisons. i.e cold and not humid or very humid makes it much more virulent. All calculations should be taken in this context.

Maybe the cases could be announced with the weather forecast?

Would be interesting to see if theres variations in cases with varying weather conditions

I Am The Law · 21-10-2020 06:24PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Show us the data!

One swallow doesnt gather moss

Having said that, there's no smoke without daggers.

Blondini · 21-10-2020 06:25PM

I Am The Law wrote: »

Having said that, there's no smoke without daggers.

A rolling untested stone gathers no swabs.

UrbanFret · 21-10-2020 06:25PM

Stheno wrote: »

The Cavan numbers are horrific

An early attempt at herd especially the upper end of it.
Wan the Breffni.

fly_agaric · 21-10-2020 06:26PM

seamus wrote: »

Apparently this "do the tracing yourself" initiative is a temporary thing.

It's probably a form of amnesty; a realisation that if they don't do this, then the entire system will be backlogged by a week or more. So better to let this 2,000 effectively fall through the cracks rather than incur delays in the next 10,000.

If the HSE is to be believed, they're back on top of the case load.

Big "If".

Well if the restrictions work and numbers [of cases] go down (combined with extra staff etc) they can get back on top of the job...if numbers go the other way (lets hope not) it will be least of the HSEs worries unfortunately!

Funsterdelux · 21-10-2020 06:28PM

UrbanFret wrote: »

An early attempt at herd especially the upper end of it.
Wan the Breffni.

Its called drift or drove immunity in Cavan

21-10-2020 06:30PM

Blondini wrote: »

Amazing the numbers of cases that are found when you actually test the school population.

Asymptomatic children passing it in to Granny all over the country.

Foolish to think otherwise.

Schools are driving a lot of cases.

When all this comes to light beyond any doubt, there will be all amount of expert excuses spouted out along the lines of "there was no substantial evidence at the time".

Wombatman · 21-10-2020 06:30PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Show us the data!

One swallow doesnt gather moss

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1021/1173019-coronavirus-schools-figures/

prunudo · 21-10-2020 06:34PM

Wombatman wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1021/1173019-coronavirus-schools-figures/

And thats only the ones they know about or are admitting too.

Eod100 · 21-10-2020 06:34PM

Thought was was fairly poor response from HSE lead for contact tracing on rte news there. Issue isn't that people are getting a text instead of a call, it's having positive cases doing their own contact tracing.

Pete_Cavan · 21-10-2020 06:35PM

Blondini wrote: »

Asymptomatic children passing it in to Granny all over the country.

They should be kept away from Granny regardless, no point in waiting until they get a positive test (if ever), Granny will have it by then.

froog · 21-10-2020 06:37PM

i mean where did people think "community transmission" was coming from? supermarkets? puddles of covid on the pavement?

AlphaDelta1 · 21-10-2020 06:37PM

Not the schools, no siree Bob.

Move along.....

Funsterdelux · 21-10-2020 06:37PM

Wombatman wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1021/1173019-coronavirus-schools-figures/

I need raw hard data, sure they probably got it at home.

niamh247 · 21-10-2020 06:38PM

The number of weekly Covid outbreaks recorded in schools doubled again last week, according to latest data from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC).

There were 46 outbreaks in the week-ending October 17 - last Saturday - compared with 25 the previous week.

The figures for the week-ending October 10 were, itself, a doubling of 12, 13, 11 and 12 in each of the preceding four weeks.

It brings the total since term began to 119, out of 4,000 primary and post-primary schools.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/education/covid-outbreaks-in-schools-doubled-again-last-week-39651863.html

21-10-2020 06:40PM

My own personal opinion is that the schools are now the main drivers, and have been fairly significantly responsible for the second wave all around, and that the new restrictions will indeed slow down the increase a lot but not stop it altogether. We'll remain on top of a wavering and maybe slightly rising plateau, which, if/when schools close, and all else being still equal, we will see a significant decrease.

Sadly this is hugely problematic for society and I, for one, can't see any good solutions to both stabilise the virus and make fairly ordinary living workable. It's a cr@p situation.

Eod100 · 21-10-2020 06:41PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Show us the data!

One swallow doesnt gather moss

If the issue is that potential close contacts aren't being identified in schools because they're in different pods in a classroom, the numbers being tested and then testing positive would be reduced.

I guess issue is that close contact will have to self-isolate for 14 days so negative test won't free them from that either way. But test would pick up if others were already infected. Maybe rapid tests the way to go there if they can be rolled out.

speckle · 21-10-2020 06:41PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Maybe the cases could be announced with the weather forecast?

Would be interesting to see if theres variations in cases with varying weather conditions

I was about to post the same question on the weather thread, dublin always gets colder in autum before the southwest. Did the dublin rate change with weather versus eg kerry/west cork as winter cold hits there later. also up to a half hour differerence in light. I know correlation v causation. And what about humidty extremes?Any weather people on here?

Allinall · 21-10-2020 06:43PM

Hqrry113 wrote: »

130 million people at risk of starvation in the world and what are we worried about?

A few 80 year olds in nursing homes already half dead dying from corona, half of which would also probably die if they caught the flu.

What have you done to help the 130 million?

Jim_Hodge · 21-10-2020 06:43PM

Hqrry113 wrote: »

130 million people at risk of starvation in the world and what are we worried about?

A few 80 year olds in nursing homes already half dead dying from corona, half of which would also probably die if they caught the flu.

Aren't you a caring soul!

fly_agaric · 21-10-2020 06:44PM

Turtwig wrote: »

If tracing is missing cases then would you not expect positivity rate to have an upward bias?

Don't know enough about the tracing mechanics though. This is purely intuition that may be very flawed.

That sounds reasonable also. I suppose there are a few factors going into % positive, the virus spread, the population "mix" being tested (close contacts, people with symptoms, those being tested for work, people having an operation or something etc.) and the testing capacity itself so its probably hard to be certain of anything just looking at that one figure in ignorance of what else is going on.

oceanman · 21-10-2020 06:45PM

hard to see how the schools will reopen after the october break.

Allinall · 21-10-2020 06:47PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Aren't you a caring soul!

A caring troll, more like.

Funsterdelux · 21-10-2020 06:47PM

speckle wrote: »

I was about to post the same question on the weather thread, dublin always gets colder in autum before the southwest. Did the dublin rate change with weather versus eg kerry/west cork as winter cold hits there later. also up to a half hour differerence in light. I know correlation v causation. And what about humidty extremes?Any weather people on here?

Weather forum would be a better bet I'd say. I dunno if Ireland's humidity esp. would flucuate much across the country. No harm in finding out

MerlinSouthDub · 21-10-2020 06:48PM

oceanman wrote: »

hard to see how the schools will reopen after the october break.

Why so? The level of infection in school children is far below the general population, and way below young adults.

babybuilder · 21-10-2020 06:48PM

Hqrry113 wrote: »

130 million people at risk of starvation in the world and what are we worried about?

A few 80 year olds in nursing homes already half dead dying from corona, half of which would also probably die if they caught the flu.

If you need help yourself in getting to the after-life there shouldn't be any shortage of volunteers here to send you on your way.

political analyst · 21-10-2020 06:48PM

Deleted User wrote: »

My own personal opinion is that the schools are now the main drivers, and have been fairly significantly responsible for the second wave all around, and that the new restrictions will indeed slow down the increase a lot but not stop it altogether. We'll remain on top of a wavering and maybe slightly rising plateau, which, if/when schools close, and all else being still equal, we will see a significant decrease.

Sadly this is hugely problematic for society and I, for one, can't see any good solutions to both stabilise the virus and make fairly ordinary living workable. It's a cr@p situation.

But having the schools open means that children are not hanging around in public spaces and thus reduces the spread of the virus, doesn't it?

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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