Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

CIARAN_BOYLE · 21-10-2020 05:59PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

So situation stabilised without going to Level 5, hopefully cases will plummet fast with L5 and we can drop back to L4 after a few weeks and then L3.

We stabalise as we test 30k over 2 days compared to 19k a day at our highest. Contact tracing break down and people who need tests not referred to test.

I think we understand why things seem to "stabalise".

mloc123 · 21-10-2020 05:59PM

Stheno wrote: »

The Cavan numbers are horrific

Cavan has more Schools than any other county... I assume anyway, there could be no other reason :pac:

ACitizenErased · 21-10-2020 06:00PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

We stabalise as we test 30k over 2 days compared to 19k a day at our highest. Contact tracing break down and people who need tests not referred to test.

I think we understand why things seem to "stabalise".

The sample size is big enough for the positivity rate to reflect change. Tests have reduced as you said, but so has the positivity rate. If you reduce tests you'd expect it to increase, not decrease.

Longing · 21-10-2020 06:00PM

Half the cases are from 0-24 years.

circadian · 21-10-2020 06:00PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Sweden had a very outdoorsy culture, eg Stockholm has hundreds of little sparsely populated islands and woods people retreat to in late spring and summer, able to get away from each other in little summer cabins. We here tend to congregate together in hoards.

This. It's what bothers me when people say "But (insert country name) didn't have a lockdown so we shouldn't either" don't actually take into account culture and the behaviour of the population.

Funsterdelux · 21-10-2020 06:01PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Looks like this is a script contact tracers would use and just edited slightly. Reading it just highlights how ridiculous it is that people have to do it. What happens if someone is too sick? Also huge issue of not being anonymous by having to contact people yourself. What a major feck up!

https://twitter.com/michellehtweet/status/1318947153679667200

All you need is a phone!

Funsterdelux · 21-10-2020 06:02PM

Longing wrote: »

Half the cases are from 0-24 years.

And the other half?

CIARAN_BOYLE · 21-10-2020 06:04PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The sample size is big enough for the positivity rate to reflect change. Tests have reduced as you said, but so has the positivity rate. If you reduce tests you'd expect it to increase, not decrease.

I'll need a longer drop in positivity to note change. I'm sorry.

From one of the recent press conferences close contacts of school cases is around 2% compared to close contacts of community cases of around 8%.

I is this as potentially a pile of tests with 8% positivity pulled out causing total positivity to drop.

Hopefully I'm wrong but don't throw a party that we have turned a corner yet based on a small drop in positivity.

nimrod86 · 21-10-2020 06:04PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

And the other half?

25-∞? :pac:

ACitizenErased · 21-10-2020 06:05PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I'll need a longer drop in positivity to note change. I'm sorry.

From one of the recent press conferences close contacts of school cases is around 2% compared to close contacts of community cases of around 8%.

I is this as potentially a pile of tests with 8% positivity pulled out causing total positivity to drop.

Hopefully I'm wrong but don't throw a party that we have turned a corner yet based on a small drop in positivity.

Nobody said we've turned a corner, a poster noted stabilisation, for 4 days running.

Funsterdelux · 21-10-2020 06:05PM

nimrod86 wrote: »

25-∞? :pac:

People are living too long!

Blondini · 21-10-2020 06:06PM

Not the schools.

Nothing to see here.

As you were.

Longing · 21-10-2020 06:07PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

And the other half?

She is still here. Doing good. Thanks for asking:D

Turtwig · 21-10-2020 06:08PM

If tracing is missing cases then would you not expect positivity rate to have an upward bias?

Don't know enough about the tracing mechanics though. This is purely intuition that may be very flawed.

circadian · 21-10-2020 06:08PM

Blondini wrote: »

Not the schools.

Nothing to see here.

As you were.

If numbers are currently levelling out then yes, it's not the schools. Not entirely at least, a few weeks of level 5 will show the true effect of schools on the numbers.

niallo27 · 21-10-2020 06:08PM

mloc123 wrote: »

Remember here 1-2 months ago - "Italy have all pubs and cafes open and are doing fine... why can't we follow them"

This lazy pathetic argument, yes they were doing fine, they were open for months so what went wrong for them.

Mark1916 · 21-10-2020 06:08PM

mloc123 wrote: »

Remember here 1-2 months ago - "Italy have all pubs and cafes open and are doing fine... why can't we follow them"

Let’s look at some numbers.

On 3rd April in Italy they’d 4,068 people in ICU, 4,585 new cases, 766 deaths and 1,480 recoveries and they tested 38,617 people.

On 21st October they’d 926 in ICU, 15,199 new cases, 127 deaths, 2,369 recoveries and 177,848 people tested.

While case numbers have indeed increased over this past while, they have increased their ICU capacity, made masks mandatory outside and have now put in Curfews in the largest areas plus the capacity they’re able to test now is outstanding. Just interested in looking at the numbers behind these things.

j@utis · 21-10-2020 06:09PM

Longing wrote: »

Half the cases are from 0-24 years.

are they sick, or just "cases" and if not tested would've never known about being "sick"?

eagle eye · 21-10-2020 06:11PM

https://twitter.com/dlooney/status/1318940496975233027

Listen to the experts, don't listen to the teachers about health. Yeah right.

Longing · 21-10-2020 06:11PM

j@utis wrote: »

are they sick, or just "cases" and if not tested would've never known about being "sick"?

Don't know.

https://twitter.com/Paul_Gibbons220/status/1318958773638209539

CIARAN_BOYLE · 21-10-2020 06:11PM

Turtwig wrote: »

If tracing is missing cases then would you not expect positivity rate to have an upward bias?

Don't know enough about the tracing mechanics though. This is purely intuition that may be very flawed.

It's my understanding that the positivity rate among close contacts in the community is around 8%. If the total positivity rate is 7.1% taking out a bundle of tests at 8% would lower the positivity rate.

Fr_Dougal · 21-10-2020 06:14PM

circadian wrote: »

If numbers are currently levelling out then yes, it's not the schools. Not entirely at least, a few weeks of level 5 will show the true effect of schools on the numbers.

Ah sure we heard that when Dublin went to Level 3.5, it’s the pubs, numbers will level off when we shut them.

How long are they shut now and the numbers are still increasing.

Blondini · 21-10-2020 06:14PM

eagle eye wrote: »

https://twitter.com/dlooney/status/1318940496975233027

Listen to the experts, don't listen to the teachers about health. Yeah right.

Amazing the numbers of cases that are found when you actually test the school population.

Asymptomatic children passing it in to Granny all over the country.

Foolish to think otherwise.

Schools are driving a lot of cases.

Derek Zoolander · 21-10-2020 06:17PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It's my understanding that the positivity rate among close contacts in the community is around 8%. If the total positivity rate is 7.1% taking out a bundle of tests at 8% would lower the positivity rate.

not really - what he's saying is that you'll probably still get most of the positives (if they develop symptoms - big if).... but you'll miss out on the 92% of the contacts that don't test positive - so you'll only catch positives thus increasing the rate...

how linear those population samples are if questionable given we can't predict peoples behaviour or what % are symptomatic.

MerlinSouthDub · 21-10-2020 06:18PM

Longing wrote: »

Half the cases are from 0-24 years.

38% of them actually. 33% of the population are aged 0-24.

Turtwig · 21-10-2020 06:18PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It's my understanding that the positivity rate among close contacts in the community is around 8%. If the total positivity rate is 7.1% taking out a bundle of tests at 8% would lower the positivity rate.

That makes sense. If I understand you right you're saying contact tracing leads to tests with a higher chance of being positive. As such when these are removed a larger proportion of tests with a greater chance of not being positive are now left in your sample. Potentially skewing the positivity rate downward.

Widdensushi · 21-10-2020 06:19PM

Mark1916 wrote: »

Let’s look at some numbers.

On 3rd April in Italy they’d 4,068 people in ICU, 4,585 new cases, 766 deaths and 1,480 recoveries and they tested 38,617 people.

On 21st October they’d 926 in ICU, 15,199 new cases, 127 deaths, 2,369 recoveries and 177,848 people tested.

While case numbers have indeed increased over this past while, they have increased their ICU capacity, made masks mandatory outside and have now put in Curfews in the largest areas plus the capacity they’re able to test now is outstanding. Just interested in looking at the numbers behind these things.

I don't know what they have done with icu but they have 12 times our population and did 11 times our testing today so a similar rate of tests.

Jenna James · 21-10-2020 06:20PM

Blondini wrote: »

Amazing the numbers of cases that are found when you actually test the school population.

Asymptomatic children passing it in to Granny all over the country.

Foolish to think otherwise.

Schools are driving a lot of cases.

How long will it take for this to be acknowledged and acted upon.

Saving face is ever a priority.

Appalling.

caveat emptor · 21-10-2020 06:20PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Holy moly, almost triple their original April peak.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1318945513425821697?s=20

And 26K in the UK

I think the environment is confusing like for like comparisons. i.e cold and not humid or very humid makes it much more virulent. All calculations should be taken in this context.

Funsterdelux · 21-10-2020 06:20PM

Blondini wrote: »

Amazing the numbers of cases that are found when you actually test the school population.

Asymptomatic children passing it in to Granny all over the country.

Foolish to think otherwise.

Schools are driving a lot of cases.

Show us the data!

One swallow doesnt gather moss

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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