Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

JDD wrote: »

I don't really understand why people are surprised that the government have mandated a second lockdown, or are surprised that it is likely we will have a third strict lockdown in mid Jan - Feb once we go down to Level 2/3 over Christmas?

We know that the R number goes over 1 when restrictions go below Level 4.

We have a fair idea of how many people will be hospitalised out of positive cases.

So if the government and NPHET are looking at the number of positive tests over the past two weeks, lets call them Group A, they have a fair idea that there are going to be a certain number of hospital admissions in the next week.

They also know that Group A have already infected a wider number of people, lets call them Group B, whose have yet to show up as positive tests. The government know that a certain proportion of Group B will be admitted to hospital in 2-3 weeks time.

Using their models, they must know that present hospital admissions + Group A admissions + Group B admissions - hospital discharges = hospital capacity. So we can't let Group B wander around and infect Group C, as that will mean tents outside hospitals by the start of December.

It is only logic to expect that a six week lockdown - shorter than the March lockdown, and less buy in by the public, will not reduce daily infections down to single figures as it did in June. If we are lucky, this lockdown will reduce daily infections down to around 100 a day.

Christmas will be a free for all. There's no point pretending it won't be. There will be some of course who will continue to be sensible and may decide not to be with family on the day or around it, but most will feel like they deserve to celebrate Christmas as normally as possible after the lockdown. That will lead to a spike in infections and I wouldn't be surprised if the R rate went over 2.

While the R rate may naturally go back down in January, as it is always a quiet month, I think we will be in the same situation as we are now at the end of January and another lockdown will be inevitable. I expect at least one further strict lockdown in May next year, before the vaccine starts to be rolled out.

Why haven't the HSE increased hospital capacity between June and September? I don't know. I know that an additional hospital bed costs €1m each, when you factor in staff costs and overheads, but I don't think money is the problem. It is probably getting the trained staff. You can't go poaching indonesian nurses like we would in normal times. It takes four years to train a nurse, they can't be magicked up.

So that is where we are. The sooner we accept it, the less traumatic it will be.