Schools closed until February? (part 3)

blanch152 · 21-10-2020 05:41PM

Thats me wrote: »

What i not understood? You wrote it was taken some 12500 adults and children related to schools, tested and found 2.8% of them, surprise, are covid-positive.

Basing on this stats you have declared "That's not a huge rate of positivity"

I took nation-wide stats to show 2.8% is huge.

You corrected me that tests were collected for over 8 weeks, and i corrected my calculations as well to show 2.8% is still huge.

Tthan you started blaming that i'm wrong with no presenting any calculations to support your statement.

I do not see much sense in prolonging this discussion.

They didn't test everyone in schools, did they?

But you are taking the figures for the community as if they tested everybody in the country.

Apples and oranges. This is basic maths you are getting wrong.

wirelessdude01 · 21-10-2020 05:43PM

Thats me wrote: »

BTW, should not teachers have their salaries doubled for working in higher-risk environment?

Why should we? I don't anyway. I just want to get on with my job in a sustainable manner that keeps our schools functioning to the highest possible level. Constant changing of the definition of a close contact within a school setting makes me think however that they are trying to hide something. I could be wrong but anecdotal evidence doesn't look great.

HerrKuehn · 21-10-2020 05:43PM

Thats me wrote: »

What i not understood? You wrote it was taken some 12500 adults and children related to schools, tested and found 2.8% of them, surprise, are covid-positive.

Basing on this stats you have declared "That's not a huge rate of positivity"

I took nation-wide stats to show 2.8% is huge.

You corrected me that tests were collected for over 8 weeks, and i corrected my calculations as well to show 2.8% is still huge.

Tthan you started blaming that i'm wrong with no presenting any calculations to support your statement.

I do not see much sense in prolonging this discussion.

Well the issue is you were comparing the following:

positive cases in school/total number of tests carried out in schools

to: total number of positive cases/entire population of ireland

I think for it to make any sense you would have to compare:
total number of positive cases/total number of tests

meeeeh · 21-10-2020 05:45PM

JP100 wrote: »

Teachers are effectively parents in absence and have a great duty of care to their students. That story if accurate shows a teacher who showed a great duty of care and a lot of compassion for their pupils and by extension their families and your immediate esponse is to belittle and slag off the teacher. Well done you.

No need to get your panties in a twist. I didn't belittle the teacher. I said health professionals followed his advice. I don't know where I belittled anything but the fact that someone would imply intentional cover up from tracers. If it was they are not very good at it.

That being said it's Twitter rumour (which I actually believe) and it was not tweeted by teacher involved. It's not the most reliable conclusion for anything.

Thats me · 21-10-2020 05:45PM

blanch152 wrote: »

They didn't test everyone in schools, did they?

But you are taking the figures for the community as if they tested everybody in the country.

Apples and oranges. This is basic maths you are getting wrong.

Country-wide stats is not result of testing verybody. Why you think i'm using percentage to compare nation-wide stats with the stats for specific domain kindly provided Lillyfae.

Lillyfae · 21-10-2020 05:46PM

Thats me wrote: »

What i not understood? You wrote it was taken some 12500 adults and children related to schools, tested and found 2.8% of them, surprise, are covid-positive.

Basing on this stats you have declared "That's not a huge rate of positivity"

I took nation-wide stats to show 2.8% is huge.

You corrected me that tests were collected for over 8 weeks, and i corrected my calculations as well to show 2.8% is still huge.

Tthan you started blaming that i'm wrong with no presenting any calculations to support your statement.

I do not see much sense in prolonging this discussion.

You took the whole population of the country, not the number of people who were tested. You can’t compare 2 totally different sets of numbers and expect any information. You need to find the total number of tests carried out in the 8 weeks.

wirelessdude01 · 21-10-2020 05:46PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Quite obviously the teacher knew that the pods had not been implemented properly.

If they have been implemented properly, such situations shouldn't arise.

Of course it's the teachers fault. Let us just ignore the fact that even the official guidance document from the dept had diagrams with 40cm between children. That isn't social distancing.

s1ippy · 21-10-2020 05:47PM

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1318944963888119809?s=20

JP100 · 21-10-2020 05:49PM

meeeeh wrote: »

No need to get your panties in a twist. I didn't belittle the teacher. I said health professionals followed his advice. I don't know where I belittled anything but the fact that someone would imply intentional cover up from tracers. If it was they are not very good at it.

That being said it's Twitter rumour (which I actually believe) and it was not tweeted by teacher involved. It's not the most reliable conclusion for anything.

Away troll... Shooo...

JP100 · 21-10-2020 05:50PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Eh, no they don't.

20% of our population are in schools most of the day.

Around 10% of outbreaks were in school. That means schools were lower risk than the community as they should have seen 20% of outbreaks if they were the same risk and a higher number if they were greater risk.

Those are the issues that arose with nursing homes and meat factories - they had higher rates of outbreaks than the community.

As I've said already, outbreaks and that's just known outbreaks almost doubling in a week doesn't strike me as low risk. I would also suggest that if you were around some of those 46 outbreaks, you wouldn't be describing them as low risk.

JP100 · 21-10-2020 05:51PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Of course it's the teachers fault. Let us just ignore the fact that even the official guidance document from the dept had diagrams with 40cm between children. That isn't social distancing.

Exactly.

Theboinkmaster · 21-10-2020 05:54PM

s1ippy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1318944963888119809?s=20

Schools account for just 7%* of cases? Yeah that's grand - happy to leave them open.

Jog on.

* 7% are school attendees, who didn't necessarily get it in school so even 7% is probably way too high

Thats me · 21-10-2020 05:55PM

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Well the issue is you were comparing the following:

positive cases in school/total number of tests carried out in schools

to: total number of positive cases/entire population of ireland

I think for it to make any sense you would have to compare:
total number of positive cases/total number of tests

My rough evaluation was done in relation to this evaluation:

Lillyfae wrote: »

12,500 adults and children linked to over 500 schools and childcare facilities have so far been tested for Covid-19, with 352 positive cases recorded. That's not a huge rate of positivity

My understanding country-wide stats comprises new cases found as result of selective testing "healthy" people (like in example referred by Lillyfae) AND clinical cases when patients were tested because they already developed symptoms. My expectation in the latter case percentage "positive cases/total number of tests" should be much higher, so even if i'd be able to obtain stats for tests of asymptomatic people, difference would be only higher.

Thats me · 21-10-2020 05:58PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

You

I am not the person to be discussed under topic

Provide your calculation and lets discuss it.

irishblessing · 21-10-2020 06:01PM

meeeeh wrote: »

Why? Do you have evidence of significant clusters in schools overwhelming the system. If not why close schools before stopping amateur sports where players can travel half the country on Sunday and then go to work on front line next day.

Funny you should ask that- email just landed in from RTE highlighting an article entitled: "Virus outbreaks in schools rise for second week."

"There has been a sharp rise in the number of weekly Covid outbreaks being detected in schools for a second week running, according to the latest public health data."

GAA should not be going ahead imo.

meeeeh · 21-10-2020 06:03PM

JP100 wrote: »

Away troll... Shooo...

So anyone who challenges you is a troll. Lovely.

mvl · 21-10-2020 06:03PM

Have heard just recently that in Germany lockdown for community may mean ... schools are only open for emergency care:
Schools and daycare centres (Kitas) will only be open to provide emergency care. Leisure facilities, bars and restaurants will close, and events will not be permitted. Hotels will only be able to accommodate business travellers. The measures will initially be in place for two weeks from Tuesday midday. It comes after the district recorded 272.8 coronavirus infections per 100,000 residents in seven days on Monday night – the highest value in Germany by a wide margin. There have been 57 new infections since Sunday alone.
It sounds to me there should be a number everywhere, just that Ireland hasn't reached it yet // the number of cases after which the governants might be forced to close schools for majority of students.
Fingers crossed that doesn't take as long !

JP100 wrote: »

Teachers are effectively parents in absence and have a great duty of care to their students. That story if accurate shows a teacher who showed a great duty of care and a lot of compassion for their pupils and by extension their families and your immediate esponse is to belittle and slag off the teacher. Well done you.

can only note respective poster is not representative for many other sensible parents working in the private sector. but I am sure you know that.

JP100 · 21-10-2020 06:11PM

meeeeh wrote: »

So anyone who challenges you is a troll. Lovely.

No, you throwing out juvenile insults in your replies is just trolling and doesn't deserve to be seriously engaged with. Now, as told before...

wirelessdude01 · 21-10-2020 06:12PM

Interesting to see Fergal Bowers referencing the FB group cluster numbers and contrasting them with the official numbers with the caveat if you believe the official ones.

blanch152 · 21-10-2020 06:16PM

irishblessing wrote: »

Funny you should ask that- email just landed in from RTE highlighting an article entitled: "Virus outbreaks in schools rise for second week."

"There has been a sharp rise in the number of weekly Covid outbreaks being detected in schools for a second week running, according to the latest public health data."

GAA should not be going ahead imo.

Thats me wrote: »

I am not the person to be discussed under topic Provide your calculation and lets discuss it.

Thanks Irishblessing for the mention of the RTE report, here it is:

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1021/1173019-coronavirus-schools-figures/

"However, it said that it was reassuring that the positivity rate for schools – at 2.3% - was considerably lower than the national positivity rate which is in excess of 7%.

It said that while the increase of Covid-19 cases in the community was leading to more cases in schools, it is important to note that "these cases are not amplified within schools themselves".

The HSE added that mass testing has taken place in a total of 414 schools following public health risk assessments, with more than 10,500 students and staff tested and 246 cases of Covid-19 identified."

The figures show that the problems in schools are less than those in the community.

blanch152 · 21-10-2020 06:18PM

mvl wrote: »

Have heard just recently that in Germany lockdown for community may mean ... schools are only open for emergency care:
Schools and daycare centres (Kitas) will only be open to provide emergency care. Leisure facilities, bars and restaurants will close, and events will not be permitted. Hotels will only be able to accommodate business travellers. The measures will initially be in place for two weeks from Tuesday midday. It comes after the district recorded 272.8 coronavirus infections per 100,000 residents in seven days on Monday night – the highest value in Germany by a wide margin. There have been 57 new infections since Sunday alone.
It sounds to me there should be a number everywhere, just that Ireland hasn't reached it yet // the number of cases after which the governants might be forced to close schools for majority of students.
Fingers crossed that doesn't take as long !

can only note respective poster is not representative for many other sensible parents working in the private sector. but I am sure you know that.

I can't believe we have someone looking for an increase in cases so that schools will be shut down. Incredible.

ruwithme · 21-10-2020 06:19PM

The irony of the thread title,when it's clear the threads being used by some to get school's closed.

Thankfully i doubt anyone on here doing that has influence with decision making officials.

irishblessing · 21-10-2020 06:24PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

See the GPs have been told to hold off on referring all these close contacts for testing. Saw a GP say it on twitter.

WTF!!!

JP100 · 21-10-2020 06:24PM

ruwithme wrote: »

Thankfully i doubt anyone on here doing that has influence with decision making officials.

I'd take the people who are at the coal face of what's going on in schools day in day out much more seriously than government mouth pieces and career politicians such as the likes of Stephen Donnelly and his inherently dangerous trampolines.

Lillyfae · 21-10-2020 06:26PM

Thats me wrote: »

I am not the person to be discussed under topic Provide your calculation and lets discuss it.

I haven’t made any calculation, it’s not an example, I’m not estimating anything. You’re using a different metric. If you can’t understand when it’s been pointed out to you multiple times I can’t make you.

meeeeh · 21-10-2020 06:27PM

JP100 wrote: »

No, you throwing out juvenile insults in your replies is just trolling and doesn't deserve to be seriously engaged with. Now, as told before...

Sorry I'm not a dog for you to shush me.

wirelessdude01 · 21-10-2020 06:29PM

irishblessing wrote: »

WTF!!!

Yeah they have heard nothing at all from the HSE so have been told by their representative body to hold off until they are given official guidelines and criteria to use.

blanch152 · 21-10-2020 06:29PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Of course it's the teachers fault. Let us just ignore the fact that even the official guidance document from the dept had diagrams with 40cm between children. That isn't social distancing.

Teachers do need to consider their role in all of this.

From September, the teacher unions at both second and third level were absolutely adamant that there could be no simulcasting of their lessons. The unintended consequences of this is that parents and students will come to school and college by default, and only opt out if they have symptoms. This increases the risk to teachers of asymptomatic transmission. If the option of tuning in from home to a class was available, it would have been much better.

Secondly, there are responsibilities on teachers to own the compliance within their own classroom. From my experience, the vast majority have done so. However, the small minority who don't, who don't enforce the mask rule, who are lax on social distancing etc. are the ones who will create the problems within the schools.

Neither of those issues are on governments or school management.

irishblessing · 21-10-2020 06:33PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Quite obviously the teacher knew that the pods had not been implemented properly.

If they have been implemented properly, such situations shouldn't arise.

You've GOT to be joking. Implemented properly, how? Should they turn themselves into builders and build a whole new school with bigger classrooms and then turn themselves into government and lower the pupil to teacher ratio by providing extra funding to get themselves out of the category of teaching in a country in which it has one of the highest class sizes in the EU? Then they can mandate masks for primary students as well.

I honestly can't believe this nonsense I'm reading.

joe40 · 21-10-2020 06:34PM

My opinion on this is that I believe there is a very high likelihood that transmission will occur in schools. The numbers make it inevitable. I hope govt will be honest.

However as a parent and teacher (secondary) it is important that schools are kept open. Predicted grades are not suitable and would be even harder this year. Education is vital for our society. Teachers and everyone working in schools should be given whatever protection is required but schools must be kept open.
The virus is going to be with us for months/years closing school is not viable.

Schools closed until February? (part 3)

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