Schools closed until February? (part 3)

Lillyfae · 21-10-2020 01:58PM

Thats me wrote: »

Why? In Lillyfae's example we taking average people from specific group and see how many of them have covid. In my example we taking all cases for one day coutrywide.

Even we will take all active cases, not only discovered yesterday - it is 27027 cases, 0.55% of whole population. Including cases related to schools, symptomatic ilness and tests done on asymptomatic general public.

No, it was actual people tested over 8 weeks and how many of those tested had positive tests. It wasn't an example, it was actual numbers.

8k71ps · 21-10-2020 01:59PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Those are two completely different statistics!!! Any comparison is completely meaningless!!!

Both of these statistics are completely meaningless. The doe statistics for testing seem to mostly come from September and there is absolutely no indication of the r value nor of infectivity in teachers. If this is "mass testing" than 3% of the total population is absolutely enormous and is likely the largest cause for the spread by far. If it isn't then they haven't a clue how it's spreading due to many young children being asymptomatic.

Lillyfae · 21-10-2020 02:04PM

8k71ps wrote: »

Both of these statistics are completely meaningless. The doe statistics for testing seem to mostly come from September and there is absolutely no indication of the r value nor of infectivity in teachers. If this is "mass testing" than 3% of the total population is absolutely enormous and is likely the largest cause for the spread by far. If it isn't then they haven't a clue how it's spreading due to many young children being asymptomatic.

But this is also incorrect, it's not 3% of the total population. It's 3% of the 12500 tested. The part in bold is incorrect too, this was over an 8 week period, as referenced in the Irish Times piece.

blanch152 · 21-10-2020 02:05PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

Not sure why you're asking me, but according to the Irish Times today, 12,500 adults and children linked to over 500 schools and childcare facilities have so far been tested for Covid-19, with 352 positive cases recorded. That's not a huge rate of positivity, especially if the tracing criteria is narrow.

So 352 positive cases arising in schools, many of which will have been contracted outside the school.

Teacher unions all over the news crying about teachers at risk.

That is 352 cases since the 1st of September. There have been thousands of cases since then outside of schools. What that shows once again is that schools are not a large risk.

Given the low numbers involved, it is most likely that where cases have arisen in schools, it is due to either poor local management, individual teachers ignoring the regulations, student misbehaviour or some combination of the above, rather than there being systemic issues with the schools being open.

It is now getting to the point where the hysteria of the teacher unions on the issue will distract from the efforts required to address the pandemic where it is really a problem.

eagle eye · 21-10-2020 02:29PM

blanch152 wrote:

That is 352 cases since the 1st of September. There have been thousands of cases since then outside of schools. What that shows once again is that schools are not a large risk.

Have you a link to these numbers?

Also it doesn't show anything. We all know that most kids are asymptomatic. The can bring it home, parents get it, get tested, and then get blamed for bringing it into the home. The kid gets tested and we are told it came from his parents.

21-10-2020 02:33PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

On this, I would argue that the increase has been exponential since somewhere around the middle of August.

The rate of increase is actually pretty constant since restaurants reopened in June. It was just starting from a low level but follows the same trend throughout.

Lillyfae · 21-10-2020 02:39PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Have you a link to these numbers?

Also it doesn't show anything. We all know that most kids are asymptomatic. The can bring it home, parents get it, get tested, and then get blamed for bringing it into the home. The kid gets tested and we are told it came from his parents.

I've linked it, it's been quoted and requoted, all in the last 2 pages, and it's from today's news.

Fair enough if the numbers are not believed. Even if it's only a snapshot, and it's a snapshot of narrower testing criteria than the rest of society according to the opinions here, it would indicate that the positivity rate is low. If only those closest to an identified case are being tested, or those who are already symptomatic, then the actual number if a broader contact base was identified would be even lower.

Deleted User wrote: »

The rate of increase is actually pretty constant since restaurants reopened in June. It was just starting from a low level but follows the same trend throughout.

To be honest that was my feeling too, but just to pick it up at the really obvious point of increase I said August.

lostintipp · 21-10-2020 02:44PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Have you a link to these numbers?

Also it doesn't show anything. We all know that most kids are asymptomatic. The can bring it home, parents get it, get tested, and then get blamed for bringing it into the home. The kid gets tested and we are told it came from his parents.

Not sure about that, I have 3 kids, youngest fella in national school got tested as his teacher tested positive, none of the class tested positive so she obviously picked it up elsewhere,
then the wife and some of her friends got tested positive after we went to a communion party, none of the kids their tested positive.
Now all hell is breaking loose at my eldest daughters school as one of her classmates mothers decided not to do anything about the cough she had had for a couple of weeks until she collapsed and required an ambulance.

From my experience this really is an adult issue and its our recklessness with needing pubs, parties, holidays and gyms that is putting children in harm's way

blanch152 · 21-10-2020 02:49PM

lostintipp wrote: »

Not sure about that, I have 3 kids, youngest fella in national school got tested as his teacher tested positive, none of the class tested positive so she obviously picked it up elsewhere,
then the wife and some of her friends got tested positive after we went to a communion party, none of the kids their tested positive.
Now all hell is breaking loose at my eldest daughters school as one of her classmates mothers decided not to do anything about the cough she had had for a couple of weeks until she collapsed and required an ambulance.

From my experience this really is an adult issue and its our recklessness with needing pubs, parties, holidays and gyms that is putting children in harm's way

Absolutely, that is the problem and that is how it is happening.

Communion parties don't have the same regulations in place that schools have, which is why schools are safer.

8k71ps · 21-10-2020 02:54PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

But this is also incorrect, it's not 3% of the total population. It's 3% of the 12500 tested. The part in bold is incorrect too, this was over an 8 week period, as referenced in the Irish Times piece.

Sorry I should be clearly, I was stating that if this is genuine "mass testing" of school populations that have had cases, 3% is an absolutely monstrously huge figure, and if it isn't they haven't a clue if schools are safe or not, since children seem to have different symptoms and are asymptomatic. Considering this and their testing considerations seeming to be ignoring most of the close contacts a student may have, the data is largely useless. Also I distinctly remember that the Irish times reported 3 weeks ago that about 8,000 tests had been done, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

Lillyfae · 21-10-2020 02:57PM

8k71ps wrote: »

Sorry I should be clearly, I was stating that if this is genuine "mass testing" of school populations that have had cases, 3% is an absolutely monstrously huge figure, and if it isn't they haven't a clue if schools are safe or not, since children seem to have different symptoms and are asymptomatic. Considering this and their testing considerations seeming to be ignoring most of the close contacts a student may have, the data is largely useless. Also I distinctly remember that the Irish times reported 3 weeks ago that about 8,000 tests had been done, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

Quoting myself now:

Lillyfae wrote: »

Fair enough if the numbers are not believed. Even if it's only a snapshot, and it's a snapshot of narrower testing criteria than the rest of society according to the opinions here, it would indicate that the positivity rate is low. If only those closest to an identified case are being tested, or those who are already symptomatic, then the actual number if a broader contact base was identified would be even lower.

21-10-2020 03:05PM

8k71ps wrote: »

Sorry I should be clearly, I was stating that if this is genuine "mass testing" of school populations that have had cases, 3% is an absolutely monstrously huge figure, and if it isn't they haven't a clue if schools are safe or not, since children seem to have different symptoms and are asymptomatic. Considering this and their testing considerations seeming to be ignoring most of the close contacts a student may have, the data is largely useless. Also I distinctly remember that the Irish times reported 3 weeks ago that about 8,000 tests had been done, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

Its not mass testing. There is no mass testing in schools. Just as a result of contact tracing or other public health advice.

wirelessdude01 · 21-10-2020 03:08PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Its not mass testing. There is no mass testing in schools. Just as a result of contact tracing or other public health advice.

Well Norma seems to consider it mass testing seeing as she keeps referring to it as such.

St.Spodo · 21-10-2020 03:12PM

I wonder when did 'schools are not significant drivers of community spread' become 'schools must stay open in their 2019 form when contact tracing has collapsed and there are 10,000 cases every week'.

Lillyfae · 21-10-2020 03:12PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Well Norma seems to consider it mass testing seeing as she keeps referring to it as such.

Does anyone care what Norma thinks??

8k71ps · 21-10-2020 03:21PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

Quoting myself now:

That's only true if the cases where they do are in a very linear relationship , ie they only take the extreme cases. In reality they seem to be taking an extraordinarily arbitrary consideration to cases, such as students during lunch in the open air Vs students in classrooms , maybe with the windows open maybe not. Children also exhibit different symptoms so there's also biases in that regard that would suggest the testing is lop sided and doesn't represent reality. Sure iirc we'd have a lower incidence rate in schools than Singapore or South Korea!

8k71ps · 21-10-2020 03:24PM

St.Spodo wrote: »

I wonder when did 'schools are not significant drivers of community spread' become 'schools must stay open in their 2019 form when contact tracing has collapsed and there are 10,000 cases every week'.

It's been like this the entire time, "by hook or by crook" every time the department has been asked to do anything and failing miserably.

meeeeh · 21-10-2020 03:25PM

St.Spodo wrote: »

I wonder when did 'schools are not significant drivers of community spread' become 'schools must stay open in their 2019 form when contact tracing has collapsed and there are 10,000 cases every week'.

We already have the strictest restrictions in Europe and you also want school closed with 30 something people in ICU. I'm all for making sure hospitals are not overwhelmed but not by locking down population that is least at risk to Covid-19. Yes test and trace system has to be sorted because otherwise we will be in the same mess in January. (BTW Irish system actually improved significantly from shambles it was in spring but it's still not good enough.) There is absolutely no need to close schools and we are locking down on a lot lower numbers than many other countries.

Why are people so selfish and want to sacrifice their own kids future because they want to socialise or celebrate some sort of GAA nonsense.

HerrKuehn · 21-10-2020 03:26PM

8k71ps wrote: »

That's only true if the cases where they do are in a very linear relationship , ie they only take the extreme cases. In reality they seem to be taking an extraordinarily arbitrary consideration to cases, such as students during lunch in the open air Vs students in classrooms , maybe with the windows open maybe not. Children also exhibit different symptoms so there's also biases in that regard that would suggest the testing is lop sided and doesn't represent reality. Sure iirc we'd have a lower incidence rate in schools than Singapore or South Korea!

Well if you remember the discussion during the summer, the Irish school system cannot be compared to any other in the world. Any data from other countries is useless because of X,Y and Z.
I personally think there is no other country better suited to understanding the issues in schools. Where else would you have 1/8th of all TD/MP (19/160) being school teachers? Added to that the #1 is a teacher and #2 is a medical doctor!

St.Spodo · 21-10-2020 03:30PM

meeeeh wrote: »

We already have the strictest restrictions in Europe and you also want school closed with 30 something people in ICU. I'm all for making sure hospitals are not overwhelmed but not by locking down population that is least at risk to Covid-19. Yes test and trace system has to be sorted because otherwise we will be in the same mess in January. (BTW Irish system actually improved significantly from shambles it was in spring but it's still not good enough.) There is absolutely no need to close schools and we are locking down on a lot lower numbers than many other countries.

Why are people so selfish and want to sacrifice their own kids future because they want to socialise or celebrate some sort of GAA nonsense.

I don't want schools to close. I want protective measures commensurate with the level of virus in the community to be put in place, so they can stay open. Closing schools would be a failure of government.

8k71ps · 21-10-2020 03:37PM

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Well if you remember the discussion during the summer, the Irish school system cannot be compared to any other in the world. Any data from other countries is useless because of X,Y and Z.
I personally think there is no other country better suited to understanding the issues in schools. Where else would you have 1/8th of all TD/MP (19/160) being school teachers? Added to that the #1 is a teacher and #2 is a medical doctor!

Well certainly if they're understanding the issues teachers must be some sort of grey aliens or hivemind or something, since I have not heard one group complain more about the current strategy in Ireland than teachers (probably a mating call or something).

Data from other countries to some degree can be used to extrapolate our current situation, but I do agree that it has to be taken with a grain of salt. I would be utterly gobsmacked if the department of education are the ones being more effective though compared to other OECD nations, and in addition the data seems to be pretty far from the bounds of the UK or Italys data.

meeeeh · 21-10-2020 03:38PM

St.Spodo wrote: »

I don't want schools to close. I want protective measures commensurate with the level of virus in the community to be put in place, so they can stay open. Closing schools would be a failure of government.

Why wouldn't they stay open. If Nphet are to be believed the restrictions will decrease infections so from after the holidays schools should be becoming safer by the day.

That's if restrictions work, if they don't closing schools won't change anything.

Lillyfae · 21-10-2020 03:39PM

8k71ps wrote: »

That's only true if the cases where they do are in a very linear relationship , ie they only take the extreme cases. In reality they seem to be taking an extraordinarily arbitrary consideration to cases, such as students during lunch in the open air Vs students in classrooms , maybe with the windows open maybe not. Children also exhibit different symptoms so there's also biases in that regard that would suggest the testing is lop sided and doesn't represent reality. Sure iirc we'd have a lower incidence rate in schools than Singapore or South Korea!

Can you provide a source for this? Or something coherent to elaborate?

8k71ps · 21-10-2020 03:44PM

meeeeh wrote: »

We already have the strictest restrictions in Europe and you also want school closed with 30 something people in ICU. I'm all for making sure hospitals are not overwhelmed but not by locking down population that is least at risk to Covid-19. Yes test and trace system has to be sorted because otherwise we will be in the same mess in January. (BTW Irish system actually improved significantly from shambles it was in spring but it's still not good enough.) There is absolutely no need to close schools and we are locking down on a lot lower numbers than many other countries.

Why are people so selfish and want to sacrifice their own kids future because they want to socialise or celebrate some sort of GAA nonsense.

We also have the highest percentage usage of ICU beds at any given time, so one would expect us to be the first into lockdown and the last out of it unless the situation radically changes. They are the least likely to die, but long term effects of covid are obviously unknown (err on the side of caution rather than to be apocalyptic about it though) and also are certain to infect their parents if they themselves have caught it. Most other countries in Europe will probably be going into lockdown not long from now, it's one of the few moves the government has taken recently that's proactive rather than waiting till X thing has collapsed or Y is totally overwhelmed.

While obviously education is far more important, keeping the rate of covid down is more so, and from what I can see it's very likely a major ill measured vector for infection. No-one ought to be calling for the permanent closing of schools, but adopting a remote model for now and later a hybrid model in secondary schools with primarys open seems like the best approach, with a contact tracing system that isn't in shambles of course.

St.Spodo · 21-10-2020 03:46PM

meeeeh wrote: »

Why wouldn't they stay open. If Nphet are to be believed the restrictions will decrease infections so from after the holidays schools should be becoming safer by the day.

That's if restrictions work, if they don't closing schools won't change anything.

Again, I haven't said anything about closing schools. I am saying that we need a functioning contact tracing system, priority testing in schools and the option of blended learning when the virus is spreading rapidly in the community to keep schools open in a way that offers the best protection to children, staff and the families of both. This is advice outlined by the WHO, none of which we are adhering to at present.

wirelessdude01 · 21-10-2020 03:47PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

Can you provide a source for this? Or something coherent to elaborate?

Look up what defines a close contact in a school setting and that will explain what I think the poster was alluding to.

Lillyfae · 21-10-2020 03:49PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Look up what defines a close contact in a school setting and that will explain what I think the poster was alluding to.

I would expect the person making the claim to supply the evidence.

meeeeh · 21-10-2020 03:51PM

8k71ps wrote: »

While obviously education is far more important, keeping the rate of covid down is more so, and from what I can see it's very likely a major ill measured vector for infection. No-one ought to be calling for the permanent closing of schools, but adopting a remote model for now and later a hybrid model in secondary schools with primarys open seems like the best approach,.

Why? Do you have evidence of significant clusters in schools overwhelming the system. If not why close schools before stopping amateur sports where players can travel half the country on Sunday and then go to work on front line next day.

meeeeh · 21-10-2020 03:56PM

St.Spodo wrote: »

Again, I haven't said anything about closing schools. I am saying that we need a functioning contact tracing system, priority testing in schools and the option of blended learning when the virus is spreading rapidly in the community to keep schools open in a way that offers the best protection to children, staff and the families of both. This is advice outlined by the WHO, none of which we are adhering to at present.

Children are perfectly fine in schools at the moment. Certainly better of than some ridiculous blended learning that just piles on the pressure on teachers and parents. For all the bluster I didn't see any unions calling for blended teaching.

wirelessdude01 · 21-10-2020 03:57PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

I would expect the person making the claim to supply the evidence.

Fair enough. I only said it's there to be read.

See this is where not actually being in the country or aware of what is happening in schools clouds your point of view.

Schools closed until February? (part 3)

Comments