Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

AUDI20 · 21-10-2020 12:36AM

BringBackMick wrote: »

I definitely do but I understand that the normal flu causes very big issues for the health service on an average year and if they had a choice I'm sure they'd introduce restrictions in any normal year to slow it spreading ?

They do. Its called the flu vaccine

caveat emptor · 21-10-2020 12:38AM

BringBackMick wrote: »

I definitely do but I understand that the normal flu causes very big issues for the health service on an average year and if they had a choice I'm sure they'd introduce restrictions in any normal year to slow it spreading ?

It certainly does put a burden but this is a different scale issue as we are seeing. We are not alone in our hospitals filling up and we are nowhere near our traditional flu peak.
People make an assumption based on what we’ve seen so far Regarding covid and extrapolated out. I.e we’ve locked down in spring and weathered the storm. We are neglecting to factor in the fact that the humidity and temperature over the winter make the infectiousness of the virus different. Not in a good way.

Anywho do all the things right and we should all be ok. ðŸ‘

Antares35 · 21-10-2020 12:39AM

maebee wrote: »

How the F does visiting a grave come under essential travel? Ridiculous

I've a relative who buried his son last year. As part of their way to process their grief, they keep a candle at his grave. Presumably one of those battery ones covered in or whatever. The visits to his son's grave every 2-3 days gives him comfort. Who are we to prescribe how others process their grief? In any event, he'd be a long way down my list of covid offenders, certainly after the loo roll gobshítes, the house party revellers and the degenerates sporting their masks around their neck like a fúckin bad fashion accessory.

A solitary man in a graveyard spending time at his son's grave is not the reason we are back at level five.

douglashyde · 21-10-2020 12:39AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Let's be honest you are comparing flu to covid again. :eek:
If you don't understand the difference then so be it.

Do you understand the difference? Based on your chart , the infection rate mortality is .1% for seasonal flu for someone aged at 70.

CV19 has an IFR mortality of .23% for everyone on average and .05% for those aged <70. Source. Peer reviewed, meta data analysis published by the World Health Organisation a couple of weeks ago.

So, yes COVID is worse than the Flu. Is it worse to the point that we impact health, wellbeing, happiness and livelihoods?

I'm PCR-Postive it isnt.

speckle · 21-10-2020 12:40AM

Beanybabog wrote: »

I’m not sure, we only found out so I’m reading stuff now. I have to get me and kids tested. Apparently we had to wait for contact tracing to contact us but that’s scrapped for now, given that they’re overwhelmed. If I test positive as an asymptomatic person my contacts would only be gone back
24 hours and I’ve had zero... I kept me and kids in since oh got a cough

So has contact racing sorted the OHs?And ring your gp tomorrow for testing for you and the kids. Can you drive there to limit your contacts. Do you have a friend or neighbour to drop food etc to the house. Remember ring hse no for advice if needed. or try your council helpline number for other help.
What about your kids ...you are meant to go back 48 hours/two days minium?

You can do this... deep breathe ...get some sleep and dont be afraid to call the out of hours doctor if needed.

perrito caliente · 21-10-2020 12:44AM

BringBackMick wrote: »

I definitely do but I understand that the normal flu causes very big issues for the health service on an average year and if they had a choice I'm sure they'd introduce restrictions in any normal year to slow it spreading ?

Indeed. Your chart does confirm that what we are dealing with is a slightly worse Flu.

Beanybabog · 21-10-2020 12:46AM

speckle wrote: »

So has contact racing sorted the OHs?And ring your gp tomorrow for testing for you and the kids. Can you drive there to limit your contacts. Do you have a friend or neighbour to drop food etc to the house. Remember ring hse no for advice if needed. or try your council helpline number for other help.
What about your kids ...you are meant to go back 48 hours/two days minium?

You can do this... deep breathe ...get some sleep and dont be afraid to call the out of hours doctor if needed.

He only got his text tonight. He works from home, there’s not that many contacts. We’ve told most people he saw over whole week. I decided i wasn’t waiting for contract tracing and I’d
Call GP asap in the morning when I came across the notice that apparently that’s what we’ve to do anyway, contract tracing is breaking down. We’ve been at home no contacts for 3 days. I’m asymptomatic but scared as I’m pregnant. Kids seem grand, one coughed a bit but I’ve been hyper aware. I really expected a negative and thought I was being neurotic insisting he get tested and isolate

colly10 · 21-10-2020 12:47AM

With fines of 500 for non essential travel outside 5k, what counts as essential.
In the next week, i’d like to pick up a cot cause I have a baby on the way and don’t have one, can I travel?
I bought a place and am expecting the keys in the next week, can I travel to pick them up?
When I get the keys, I’d like to travel to let in people delivering appliances so I can move in to avoid paying both rent and a mortgage, can I?

They’ve outlined the obvious but am not sure what’s considered valid other than that

Happydays2020 · 21-10-2020 12:50AM

colly10 wrote: »

With fines of 500 for non essential travel outside 5k, what counts as essential.
In the next week, i’d like to pick up a cot cause I have a baby on the way and don’t have one, can I travel?
I bought a place and am expecting the keys in the next week, can I travel to pick them up?
When I get the keys, I’d like to travel to let in people delivering appliances so I can move in to avoid paying both rent and a mortgage, can I?

They’ve outlined the obvious but am not sure what’s considered valid other than that

I doubt if you explained all that to a Guard they would process a fine.

- a cot is essential
- you will be travelling to your home (in process of moving).

dmakc · 21-10-2020 12:51AM

colly10 wrote: »

With fines of 500 for non essential travel outside 5k, what counts as essential.
In the next week, i’d like to pick up a cot cause I have a baby on the way and don’t have one, can I travel?
I bought a place and am expecting the keys in the next week, can I travel to pick them up?
When I get the keys, I’d like to travel to let in people delivering appliances so I can move in to avoid paying both rent and a mortgage, can I?

They’ve outlined the obvious but am not sure what’s considered valid other than that

This won't be as autocratic as people make out. The cot is essential under caring for a child. Then use that excuse over and over again for the next few times

Happydays2020 · 21-10-2020 12:54AM

dmakc wrote: »

This won't be as autocratic as people make out. The cot is essential under caring for a child. Then use that excuse over and over again for the next few times

It won’t be as autocratic as some people want it to be. Like the first time round there was common sense in application.

The scariest thing is the talk about getting the army to enforce the lock down.

Jimson · 21-10-2020 12:54AM

Open back up the country until a proper solution is in place to feck

If people want to stay at home and barely leave the house then do it. Let the rest of us get on with our lives

And before anyone says I'm been selfish your making no sense. If we lock down the country and get back down to under 100 cases a day what happens then when we reopen again? Back to over 1200 cases a day.

The main reason for the spike to 1300 daily is the schools been open and there probably all asymptomatic.
The schools are the main problem and something badly needs to be done about them.

There were house parties galore when we were at 50 cases a day. Its not a new thing. Its student spreading it to family members and siblings and that's whats causing the 1300 daily cases.

pm1977x · 21-10-2020 12:54AM

Beanybabog wrote: »

He only got his text tonight. He works from home, there’s not that many contacts. We’ve told most people he saw over whole week. I decided i wasn’t waiting for contract tracing and I’d
Call GP asap in the morning when I came across the notice that apparently that’s what we’ve to do anyway, contract tracing is breaking down. We’ve been at home no contacts for 3 days. I’m asymptomatic but scared as I’m pregnant. Kids seem grand, one coughed a bit but I’ve been hyper aware. I really expected a negative and thought I was being neurotic insisting he get tested and isolate

No doubt it’s very scary right now. If it’s any comfort a neighbour near us found out they had Covid during a pregnancy, whole family were tested, all had it, nobody got sick beyond one or two slight coughs and sore throats. Months later they’re all still fine...along with their perfectly healthy new arrival, stay strong.

Quantum Erasure · 21-10-2020 12:54AM

maebee wrote: »

How the F does visiting a grave come under essential travel? Ridiculous

It's an exemption on compassionate grounds,

Happydays2020 · 21-10-2020 12:57AM

Jimson wrote: »

Open back up the country until a proper solution is in place to feck

If people want to stay at home and barely leave the house then do it. Let the rest of us get on with our lives

And before anyone says I'm been selfish your making no sense. If we lock down the country and get back down to under 100 cases a day what happens then when we reopen again? Back to over 1200 cases a day.

The main reason for the spike to 1300 daily is the schools been open and there probably all asymptomatic.
The schools are the main problem and something badly needs to be done about them.

There were house parties galore when we were at 50 cases a day. Its not a new thing.

It seems there is a target for 1 December of less than 100 cases a day and a R rate of 0.5. That would indicate to me that shops will not be open this side of Christmas as schools will keep the numbers up (but excuses will be found such as click and collect and takeaways)

caveat emptor · 21-10-2020 01:01AM

douglashyde wrote: »

Do you understand the difference? Based on your chart , the infection rate mortality is .1% for seasonal flu for someone aged at 70.

CV19 has an IFR mortality of .23% for everyone on average and .05% for those aged <70. Source. Peer reviewed, meta data analysis published by the World Health Organisation a couple of weeks ago.

So, yes COVID is worse than the Flu. Is it worse to the point that we impact health, wellbeing, happiness and livelihoods?

I'm PCR-Postive it isnt.

Hmmm

To answer your question, do I understand the difference. I can say I do because I can read the chart.

To ask you a question, which virus overwhelms healthcare more? And if it does overwhelm it do you not care about all of the cancer patients etc. They are dependent on us getting our **** together.

It's essentially an order of magnitude worse for most age cohorts. The government should be held account for not putting in place an adequate response. Not including bankrupting small businesses. Direct your anger where it's needed.

The virus is the same virus.

Richard Hillman · 21-10-2020 01:02AM

BringBackMick wrote: »

Let's be honest, if NPHET was in place every winter dealing with the seasonal flu and the same clout we would have restrictions every year.

They have been given too much power here and we have lost sight if reality

Exactly. And I guarantee Masks will be here to stay for every winter and theyll be recommending pub restrictions.

Tony Hoolihan will probably f**k off after this with his book deal and celebrity appearance but the likes of Ronan Glynn needs to be put back into his box early doors.

Ficheall · 21-10-2020 01:04AM

Jimson wrote: »

And before anyone says I'm been selfish your making no sense. If we lock down the country and get back down to under 100 cases a day what happens then when we reopen again? Back to over 1200 cases a day.

Wouldn't it be nice to save at least the ~400 lives in the interim?

(guesstimate: 1000 cases+ a day, at 1% (10) deaths, times 6 weeks)

caveat emptor · 21-10-2020 01:07AM

colly10 wrote: »

With fines of 500 for non essential travel outside 5k, what counts as essential.
In the next week, i’d like to pick up a cot cause I have a baby on the way and don’t have one, can I travel?
I bought a place and am expecting the keys in the next week, can I travel to pick them up?
When I get the keys, I’d like to travel to let in people delivering appliances so I can move in to avoid paying both rent and a mortgage, can I?

They’ve outlined the obvious but am not sure what’s considered valid other than that

Wouldn't worry about that stuff. Doubt a garda would either. Heart is in the right place. Congrats.

s1ippy · 21-10-2020 01:07AM

Beanybabog wrote: »

He only got his text tonight. He works from home, there’s not that many contacts. We’ve told most people he saw over whole week. I decided i wasn’t waiting for contract tracing and I’d
Call GP asap in the morning when I came across the notice that apparently that’s what we’ve to do anyway, contract tracing is breaking down. We’ve been at home no contacts for 3 days. I’m asymptomatic but scared as I’m pregnant. Kids seem grand, one coughed a bit but I’ve been hyper aware. I really expected a negative and thought I was being neurotic insisting he get tested and isolate

It doesn't look like covid is any risk to the foetus in pregnancy and the science on that that looks to be fairly certain. The precautions you're taking will hopefully protect you and your kids. Your OH must be fairly bewildered.

It can't be easy in your position but you'll get through it and hopefully look back on all this in better years with (slightly traumatised) amusement. Fingers crossed for the negative for ye.

Godspeed.

speckle · 21-10-2020 01:07AM

Beanybabog wrote: »

He only got his text tonight. He works from home, there’s not that many contacts. We’ve told most people he saw over whole week. I decided i wasn’t waiting for contract tracing and I’d
Call GP asap in the morning when I came across the notice that apparently that’s what we’ve to do anyway, contract tracing is breaking down. We’ve been at home no contacts for 3 days. I’m asymptomatic but scared as I’m pregnant. Kids seem grand, one coughed a bit but I’ve been hyper aware. I really expected a negative and thought I was being neurotic insisting he get tested and isolate

your gp might be able to organise a public health nurse to visit.. we had one when our family was struck by tuberceliosis. back then no mobile phone or a landline even. I know your worried but get to bed and dream sweet names for your bundle of joy thats on the way..

Quantum Erasure · 21-10-2020 01:09AM

perrito caliente wrote: »

Indeed. Your chart does confirm that what we are dealing with is a slightly worse Flu.

It's a logarithmic scale, about 10 to 20 times worse for anyone over 50

10000maniacs · 21-10-2020 01:13AM

douglashyde wrote: »

Do you understand the difference? Based on your chart , the infection rate mortality is .1% for seasonal flu for someone aged at 70.

CV19 has an IFR mortality of .23% for everyone on average and .05% for those aged <70. Source. Peer reviewed, meta data analysis published by the World Health Organisation a couple of weeks ago.

So, yes COVID is worse than the Flu. Is it worse to the point that we impact health, wellbeing, happiness and livelihoods?

I'm PCR-Postive it isnt.

It actually is.Those stats mean nothing. They are skewed as they don't have the correct flu figures.
1 in 12 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. are documented, which they said would translate to an infection fatality rate of about 0.6%. But even this lower estimate is still at least six times higher than that of the flu. (The case fatality rate in people who become sick with flu may be 0.1%, but when you account for people who become infected with flu but never show symptoms, the death rate will be half or even a quarter of that.)

Jimson · 21-10-2020 01:14AM

Ficheall wrote: »

Wouldn't it be nice to save at least the ~400 lives in the interim?

(guesstimate: 1000 cases+ a day, at 1% (10) deaths, times 6 weeks)

Close the schools so. House parties were everywhere during last lockdown and sustained the virus to 50 cases a day.

With the schools been open no way we will get down to 100. The funny thing about the schools is something like 90% are asymptomatic and nit been tested.

If your going to lock down the country the schools need to be locked down as well.

The house parties are not going to stop however much people think they will be. The schools will keep the cases ramped up by passing onto family members.

Ficheall · 21-10-2020 01:18AM

Oh, I'd agree on that. Keeping the schools open, especially with the current "provisions", is not in keeping with the big effort we're seemingly making to get the cases down.

Jimson · 21-10-2020 01:24AM

Ficheall wrote: »

Oh, I'd agree on that. Keeping the schools open, especially with the current "provisions", is not in keeping with the big effort we're seemingly making to get the cases down.

Id really prefer something like two weeks in for 1st to 3rd years and then two weeks off. Then on their two weeks off 4th to 6th years go in.

Gives plenty of time for recovery if they do catch it and teachers can schedule the two weeks work when there off.

We need to start thinking long term about the virus not these stupid lockdowns.

mandrake04 · 21-10-2020 01:33AM

Ficheall wrote: »

Oh, I'd agree on that. Keeping the schools open, especially with the current "provisions", is not in keeping with the big effort we're seemingly making to get the cases down.

It does sound like pushing shit uphill, although the midterm break and no where to go would definitely knock some of the numbers down but return after the break could cos a surge.

I be interested to see if the target can be met 4th Dec, also December is usually a busy month for travel so if number do come down and you have people visiting family over festive time from abroad especially Europe and UK will there be another surge on the mouth of Xmas?

I don’t agree with heavy lockdown, makes more sense to lockup travellers in quarantine and allow your population to live normal life...rather than lockup the entire population to facilitate travellers having a holiday.

Happydays2020 · 21-10-2020 01:33AM

Ficheall wrote: »

Wouldn't it be nice to save at least the ~400 lives in the interim?

(guesstimate: 1000 cases+ a day, at 1% (10) deaths, times 6 weeks)

I think the rate is around 0.6% and probably less if the infection rate remains with younger people and vulnerable are protected. We are also not sure what would have been the effect of the Level 3 and 4 measures put in place only last week. It seems there are encouraging signs from Donegal anyway.

But yes - there is a cost benefit. There are costs in terms of society, lost jobs and associated impacts on family situations and mental health, lost investment, permanent closure of businesses, plus impacts on other Non Covid health issues such as screening programmes etc. Not to mention the minimum 1.5 billion cost of this (which could fund a high tech hospital saving how many lives over a 50 year period?)

In any event, all those saved lives are not necessarily banked as it is predicated on the assertion that schools are not a problem, that retail is a problem and that enforcement activities on what we all know is the real issue works.

In the meantime, what has been done over 6 months by the health service to prepare for the inevitable second wave. Have we invested in the new drugs available in terms of treatment, have we increased capacity, have we delivered on the promise of a world class track, trace and isolate programme, have we delivered any testing in the airports/ports noting the importance of connectivity to our economy/society.

I hope this does work, but it is far from optimal. And I am not a Covid denier, I do think it is worse than the flu, I have been very compliant with the rules and am annoyed that we are where we are now although thankfully I have a stable job, I can work from home, and I am usually happy enough not to be out socialising.

Goldengirl · 21-10-2020 01:35AM

BringBackMick wrote: »

I definitely do but I understand that the normal flu causes very big issues for the health service on an average year and if they had a choice I'm sure they'd introduce restrictions in any normal year to slow it spreading ?

Yes. You are right . Cough etiquette , restriction of movements if symptoms , banning sign of peace at mass ...that'd do it probably

Goldengirl · 21-10-2020 01:38AM

Beanybabog wrote: »

I’m not sure, we only found out so I’m reading stuff now. I have to get me and kids tested. Apparently we had to wait for contact tracing to contact us but that’s scrapped for now, given that they’re overwhelmed. If I test positive as an asymptomatic person my contacts would only be gone back
24 hours and I’ve had zero... I kept me and kids in since oh got a cough

Sounds like you are doing the right things .
Good luck with your tests and hope you all are ok soon .

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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