Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

MarkY91 wrote: »

Between no enforcement of mask wearing and staff often not even wearing a mask properly or not even at all...how do you come up with the opinion that retail has been compliant? Have you even been to a shop? Doesn't sound like it.

The staff in my local small supermarket were not wearing a mask when I went in recently. It's completely stupid, they're putting customers off. I presume they think they will be excluded from any restrictions while the hairdressers across the road with everyone masked and PPE'd will have to close. Infuriating.

We've zero enforcement as usual.

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

The WHO have said Lockdown as sole strategy to suppress virus will not work. But have acknowledged when virus is out of control in terms of transmission, that it makes sense to use it get numbers down, but only if a wider strategy is developed once numbers stabilize I.E. improve ITTIC

And this is were it all falls down government test and trace is practically non existing. It will be rinse and repeat unless we get that sorted.

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1318092193173786625

This right here is what is driving the pandemic. We urgently need legislation that acts as deterrent for people to interact with others when they have symptoms. The overdispersion theory once again rings true, a superspreader event drives up the numbers, it is the number one constant in all this. You could attend a party with 50 others and one person that is infectious results in 45 infections, we need to stop these people causing outbreaks to control this. A minority of people result are responsible majority of outbreaks.


'A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person. A recent paper found that in Hong Kong, which had extensive testing and contact tracing, about 19 percent of cases were responsible for 80 percent of transmission, while 69 percent of cases did not infect another person. This finding is not rare: Multiple studies from the beginning have suggested that as few as 10 to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for as much as 80 to 90 percent of transmission, and that many people barely transmit it.'

The disease pattern is not deterministic i e. Linear, it's stochastic

The most recent data also suggests that only 20% of people are truly asymptomatic throughout.

shocksy wrote: »

They also don't check the hand sanitisers regularly either, because on multiple occasions they have always been empty

I am still wondering if overall we would have been better off if we had moved to Level 5 for 4 weeks (even 6 if necessary) when NPHET said we should. With proper financial supports etc.
Instead of slowly increasing the restrictions.

I feel that even if the Government bring in Level 4+ today but leave Construction, Schools etc open, allow GAA to continue together with zero enforcement that it just won't be enough and will lead to Level 5 for a much longer period.

I don't know.

MarkY91 wrote: »

Between no enforcement of mask wearing and staff often not even wearing a mask properly or not even at all...how do you come up with the opinion that retail has been compliant? Have you even been to a shop? Doesn't sound like it.

Plenty and my business is retail. The number of people wearing masks without a legit exemption is absolutely tiny, not enough to make a difference. But you will pick the negative not the more than vast majority that are wearing masks.

seamus wrote: »

Details will be announced about tonight. Probably start from 00:00 Thursday, and maybe 3 days grace for weddings and funerals; Thursday, Friday, Saturday.

There'll be a longer lead-in to implementation because anything tighter than we have right now will require things like the ban on evictions, mandatory mortgage holidays, enhanced PUP, etc, to be put back in place.

It could even be Thursday or Friday before it kicks in, to give retailers a week to lock up their shops/sell off stock.

My gut feeling is that this is a mistake and without the right messaging they're setting this up to fail as people ignore the restrictions and do whatever they like.

People are going to panic buy from online retailers like Amazon, so even if we do get a relaxation before Xmas, Irish shops are going to see a Xmas several times worse than the trough of the recession. Many will be forced to close permanently.

The numbers (IMO) aren't bad enough to warrant this. I may change my tune though when the swab data comes out this afternoon.

Agree with pretty much everything you said. The vast majority of people will adhere to the whatever restrictions they have in place to the best of their ability.Then others will wilfully disobey them. Even if they put out the clearest and most concise roadmap and reasoning, there will be a sizeable majority thinking they are amazing my saying Me Hole repeatedly. Others will continue to say that the Covid is a scam and others will say, why should i adhere if tourists are arriving.

The issue is nothing to do with the Government. It is to do with people disobeying the straightforward recommendations. Chortling to themselves about no enforcement etc.

If people followed the basic rules, we can continue. People should stop rabbiting on about wet pubs. trick or treating, shopping in River Island for Tshirts and just do their bit.

SusanC10 wrote: »

I am still wondering if overall we would have been better off if we had moved to Level 5 for 4 weeks (even 6 if necessary) when NPHET said we should. With proper financial supports etc.
Instead of slowly increasing the restrictions.

I feel that even if the Government bring in Level 4+ today but leave Construction, Schools etc open, allow GAA to continue together with zero enforcement that it just won't be enough and will lead to Level 5 for a much longer period.

I don't know.

Lockdown was pretty easy for 2 months when it was dry, go to the park, go for a walk, have a bbq out your back. Anymore than a few weeks won't be bearable this time when you are stuck inside.

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Yes and soon afterwards MM will say the messaging is very clear and there should be no confusion.

Absolutely no confusion, what is there to be confused about.... we've given you the plan, we have the levels. This is a tweaking of the plan, but all very clear.

Don't mix households but form social bubbles, don't travel far but we want to ensure you can move around at midterm break and most of all don't forget that schools are absolutely safe.

Wouldn't be like the government to make a mess of communications

What happens in 4 weeks when cases and hospital numbers are the same ?

Sweet.Science wrote: »

What happens in 4 weeks when cases and hospital numbers are the same ?

You are assuming whatever incoherent rambling mess they come up with tonight will last 4 weeks.

I imagine MM will be back on the podium again within a fortnight giving us more "clarity".

Shelga wrote: »

I don't understand why they bothered spending time, money and effort on a 5-level system, if we are now going to "level 4 plus"- more pointless confusion.

Well the answer to that is the same as all government spending, its not THEIR money.

The Mighty Quinn wrote: »

I've yet to hear what constitutes a legitimate exemption..

I'm sure people have an excuse but I haven't seen a good one. My own skin is crap when masked too much but I can just pull it on to go into a shop. I would struggle to wear all day outdoors or similar. Thankfully I don't work in close contact with anyone so don't need one for work.

I saw a security man telling someone on saturday. "If you can't wear a face mask wear a face shield. It's not perfect but will stop you spitting all over people when you talk."