Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

spookwoman · 18-10-2020 03:58AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

And all those key HSE people are members of NPHET. We have great front line staff but strategically the HSE has been a mess and is not delivering bang for buck - not helped by the two tier health system.

Jobs for life, it's like a most public service desk jobs once they are in you can't get rid of them even when they are useless and couldn't sharpen a pencil never mind run a hospital.

Happydays2020 · 18-10-2020 04:05AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm not saying, it's the statistics.
In case you haven't been following the cases and deaths etc...
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/44bfb-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-saturday-17-october/
That's a good site for stats.

But we were only testing those with severe symptoms back in March and April. It is more like 0.4% so 4 in 1000 will die. - big difference.

Sheepdish1 · 18-10-2020 04:13AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

And all those key HSE people are members of NPHET. We have great front line staff but strategically the HSE has been a mess and is not delivering bang for buck - not helped by the two tier health system.

I keep hearing people saying we have one of the top ranking healthcare systems in the world. If this is the case how is that possible if it’s run so bad? Is it due to private hospitals our healthcare system ranks well?

Sheepdish1 · 18-10-2020 04:16AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes, ultimately , but first its the HSE , they are responsible for this .

I’ve heard a few people saying that if the healthcare system can’t cope that society will be manage. I don’t think they understand how serious it is if a healthcare system in a country becomes overwhelmed.

Wolf359f · 18-10-2020 04:16AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

But we were only testing those with severe symptoms back in March and April. It is more like 0.4% so 4 in 1000 will die. - big difference.

I'm going by confirmed cases and confirmed deaths.
You're free to go by guesses etc...
If you want to downplay the severity of it to make ya feel better or justify your behavior, I can't stop you.

Derek Zoolander · 18-10-2020 06:58AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm going by confirmed cases and confirmed deaths.
You're free to go by guesses etc...
If you want to downplay the severity of it to make ya feel better or justify your behavior, I can't stop you.

Might be worth going with the WHO estimated IFR which is significantly less than 1%

Hellrazer · 18-10-2020 07:54AM

The death rate from covid 19 is roughly 1.4% (and that's being generous - some sources say between 0.5 and 0.65%) ie out those that have a positive test 1.4% will die.

With a population of 700k over 65s then that equates to 9800 deaths.@1.4% - at 0.5% its 3500.

If you want to use the total population of the Republic @ 5 million that still only equates to 70,000 deaths and that's assuming that every man ,woman and child has a positive test - at .5% its 25000.

NPHET predicted 100k deaths. We`ve 1850 and that's even over estimated as these idiots keep using the phrase died "with" covid instead of died "from" covid.

Currently we have 49000 case and 1849 deaths. That's 3.77% of a death rate.

This shows something is seriously messed up with somewhere with either the reporting or the testing regime.

Either we aren't testing enough people to get that percentage down to the 0.5% international norm.

We are over estimating the deaths ie dying "with covid and not "from" covid

Or else we have a particular nasty strain of covid here in Ireland.

I personally suspect its the dying "with" covid is throwing things off and our death rate is actually much ,much lower at around 1000 deaths ie between 1.4% and 2.0% of 49000.

Flu kills around 500 a year here. Assuming that our deaths from covid are over exaggerated and this year I haven't heard of anyone dying from flu can the rest be down to something else. ie common cold or flu and being reported as covid??

Pablo Escobar · 18-10-2020 07:55AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm going by confirmed cases and confirmed deaths.
You're free to go by guesses etc...
If you want to downplay the severity of it to make ya feel better or justify your behavior, I can't stop you.

I think many of us are in your camp on the issue, but the IFR is under 0.5%, likely in 0.3% territory. However, that's dependent on hospital/ICU capacity. So, with no availability, that rate shoots up. That's the crux of the problem here.

Pablo Escobar · 18-10-2020 07:58AM

Hellrazer wrote: »

The death rate from covid 19 is roughly 1.4% (and that's being generous - some sources say between 0.5 and 0.65%) ie out those that have a positive test 1.4% will die.

With a population of 700k over 65s then that equates to 9800 deaths.@1.4% - at 0.5% its 3500.

If you want to use the total population of the Republic @ 5 million that still only equates to 70,000 deaths and that's assuming that every man ,woman and child has a positive test - at .5% its 25000.

NPHET predicted 100k deaths. We`ve 1850 and that's even over estimated as these idiots keep using the phrase died "with" covid instead of died "from" covid.

Currently we have 49000 case and 1849 deaths. That's 3.77% of a death rate.

This shows something is seriously messed up with somewhere with either the reporting or the testing regime.

Either we aren't testing enough people to get that percentage down to the 0.5% international norm.

We are over estimating the deaths ie dying "with covid and not "from" covid

Or else we have a particular nasty strain of covid here in Ireland.

0.5% is not the international norm. Nearly every country has a rate above 1%, most much higher due to testing capability, both currently and at the start. Mainly driven by the beginning where capacity was very, very small, but not gaining any ground either.

JTMan · 18-10-2020 08:02AM

Sunday Times reports here (paywall):

- “Cabinet will want to have a breakdown of what businesses are closed and what are open, what health services will be available, and what the impact of the measures will be on employment, the health service and business before they take a decision in that direction,”

Sunday Independent reports:

- Construction will be changed to be an essential service.
- We are moving towards a "mix of level 4 and level 5"
- 120,000 jobs to be lost.

Derek Zoolander · 18-10-2020 08:08AM

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

0.5% is not the international norm. Nearly every country has a rate above 1%, most much higher due to testing capability, both currently and at the start. Mainly driven by the beginning where capacity was very, very small, but not gaining any ground either.

They have done studies putting it firmly under 1% - looking at worldometers isn’t going to be more accurate than the studies undertaken....

Ellie2008 · 18-10-2020 08:10AM

JTMan wrote: »

Sunday Times reports here (paywall):

- “Cabinet will want to have a breakdown of what businesses are closed and what are open, what health services will be available, and what the impact of the measures will be on employment, the health service and business before they take a decision in that direction,”

Sunday Independent reports:

- Construction will be changed to be an essential service.
- We are moving towards a "mix of level 4 and level 5"
- 120,000 jobs to be lost.

120,000 wow.

How did we get here again?!

I know that this is a problem across Europe but it feels like so little has been achieved since February.

What’s most annoying is that people felt they could party after GAA matches etc without fear of any potential legal sanctions they did & now here we are.

Just Saying · 18-10-2020 08:15AM

Hellrazer wrote: »

The death rate from covid 19 is roughly 1.4% (and that's being generous - some sources say between 0.5 and 0.65%) ie out those that have a positive test 1.4% will die.

With a population of 700k over 65s then that equates to 9800 deaths.@1.4% - at 0.5% its 3500.

If you want to use the total population of the Republic @ 5 million that still only equates to 70,000 deaths and that's assuming that every man ,woman and child has a positive test - at .5% its 25000.

NPHET predicted 100k deaths. We`ve 1850 and that's even over estimated as these idiots keep using the phrase died "with" covid instead of died "from" covid.

Currently we have 49000 case and 1849 deaths. That's 3.77% of a death rate.

This shows something is seriously messed up with somewhere with either the reporting or the testing regime.

Either we aren't testing enough people to get that percentage down to the 0.5% international norm.

We are over estimating the deaths ie dying "with covid and not "from" covid

Or else we have a particular nasty strain of covid here in Ireland.

I personally suspect its the dying "with" covid is throwing things off and our death rate is actually much ,much lower at around 1000 deaths ie between 1.4% and 2.0% of 49000. Flu kills around 500 a year here.

A genuine question...When you say flu kills 500 people per year here is that "with" flu or "from" flu?

It would be important to the point you are making.

GazzaL · 18-10-2020 08:18AM

JTMan wrote: »

Sunday Times reports here (paywall):

- “Cabinet will want to have a breakdown of what businesses are closed and what are open, what health services will be available, and what the impact of the measures will be on employment, the health service and business before they take a decision in that direction,”

Sunday Independent reports:

- Construction will be changed to be an essential service.
- We are moving towards a "mix of level 4 and level 5"
- 120,000 jobs to be lost.

120,000 jobs to be lost, 120,000+ families will struggle to pay their bills. Huge numbers of businesses forced to close their doors and they may not be able to reopen them. Even businesses that are allowed to stay open may struggle to do so depending on what market they service. At least people can take some solace knowing that all the members of NPHET will continue to get paid.

Jizique · 18-10-2020 08:23AM

GazzaL wrote: »

120,000 jobs to be lost, 120,000+ families will struggle to pay their bills. Huge numbers of businesses forced to close their doors and they may not be able to reopen them. Even businesses that are allowed to stay open may struggle to do so depending on what market they service. At least people can take some solace knowing that all the members of NPHET will continue to get paid.

Don’t forget all the additional consultants they are planning to hire - money no object for the medics

Pitch n Putt · 18-10-2020 08:24AM

political analyst wrote: »

Then what's the point of having a 6-week lockdown now?

It’s important we have a 6 week lockdown so we can have the third wave sometime around mid January when inevitably cases will have risen once again when their stupid lockdown is lifted.

How these fools can’t see it’s going to be a seesaw situation and lockdowns don’t work ....

Our 9 month living with Covid plan didn’t last very long. We’re probably going to end up with the usual ****e of level 4 with added restrictions

They will pick and choose whatever way it suits. Construction will be now deemed essential even though van loads of workers commuting daily around the country.

The 5 point plan should now be called the Pick N Mix plan.

Hellrazer · 18-10-2020 08:25AM

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

0.5% is not the international norm. Nearly every country has a rate above 1%, most much higher due to testing capability, both currently and at the start. Mainly driven by the beginning where capacity was very, very small, but not gaining any ground either.

WHOs official figures are between 0.5 and 1.0% but the study says closer to 0.5.

Just Saying wrote: »

A genuine question...When you say flu kills 500 people per year here is that "with" flu or "from" flu?

It would be important to the point you are making.

The HSE website says "from" flu so I suppose that's what you`d have to use.

BobbyMalone · 18-10-2020 08:25AM

JTMan wrote: »

- Construction will be changed to be an essential service.

Have there been many outbreaks on construction sites, I wonder? I remember reading about one or two when we started opening up, but might have missed others since then.

JTMan wrote: »

- We are moving towards a "mix of level 4 and level 5"

Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

GazzaL · 18-10-2020 08:27AM

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

It’s important we have a 6 week lockdown so we can have the third wave sometime around mid January when inevitably cases will have risen once again when their stupid lockdown is lifted.

How these fools can’t see it’s going to be a seesaw situation and lockdowns don’t work ....

Our 9 month living with Covid plan didn’t last very long. We’re probably going to end up with the usual ****e of level 4 with added restrictions

They will pick and choose whatever way it suits. Construction will be now deemed essential even though van loads of workers commuting daily around the country.

The 5 point plan should now be called the Pick N Mix plan.

They'll leave schools where there have been many cases of COVID open while forcing businesses who have had ZERO cases to shut their doors. They are ****ing lunatics.

is_that_so · 18-10-2020 08:27AM

Just Saying wrote: »

A genuine question...When you say flu kills 500 people per year here is that "with" flu or "from" flu?

It would be important to the point you are making.

It's not really as it's all about how it's recorded statistically. IFR is a complete red herring because of its emotive nature and because there is an automatic assumption that it is the big problem. Growth of cases and pressures on health systems is. Despite the potential and regrettable loss of life, those numbers now are absolutely nothing like March and April. Back then we got caught cold but now there are much better protections and better understanding of where that risk lies.

Hellrazer · 18-10-2020 08:29AM

is_that_so wrote: »

It's not really as it's all about how it's recorded statistically. IFR is a complete red herring because of its emotive nature and because there is an automatic assumption that it is the big problem. Growth of cases and pressures on health systems is. Despite the potential and regrettable loss of life, those numbers now are absolutely nothing like March and April. Back then we got caught cold but now there are much better protections and better understanding of where that risk lies.

I agree - the first lockdown should have been the time to get our house in order for a second wave.

Have we been caught cold again?
It definitely looks that way.Im not sure we do have the protections in place now.
I feel they've made a balls of the time they had to sort things out.

mr_edge_to_you · 18-10-2020 08:30AM

Isn't it great that intercounty GAA is back? I'm sure everyone's mental health is super now.

Meanwhile, I was stopped by the guards last night while on my way home from collecting a takeaway dinner and I'm sure that I'll still be unemployed by the end of next week.

Hellrazer · 18-10-2020 08:32AM

GazzaL wrote: »

They'll leave schools where there have been many cases of COVID open while forcing businesses who have had ZERO cases to shut their doors. They are ****ing lunatics.

They cant see this though. They want schools left open regardless of what it does to the rest of the country.

Only last week there were 10 confirmed cases in my lads secondary school. How many of them brought it home to spread throughout the community?

They are lunatics by not addressing the schools issue.

The HorsesMouth · 18-10-2020 08:40AM

Hellrazer wrote: »

The death rate from covid 19 is roughly 1.4% (and that's being generous - some sources say between 0.5 and 0.65%) ie out those that have a positive test 1.4% will die.

With a population of 700k over 65s then that equates to 9800 deaths.@1.4% - at 0.5% its 3500.

If you want to use the total population of the Republic @ 5 million that still only equates to 70,000 deaths and that's assuming that every man ,woman and child has a positive test - at .5% its 25000.

NPHET predicted 100k deaths. We`ve 1850 and that's even over estimated as these idiots keep using the phrase died "with" covid instead of died "from" covid.

Currently we have 49000 case and 1849 deaths. That's 3.77% of a death rate.

This shows something is seriously messed up with somewhere with either the reporting or the testing regime.

Either we aren't testing enough people to get that percentage down to the 0.5% international norm.

We are over estimating the deaths ie dying "with covid and not "from" covid

Or else we have a particular nasty strain of covid here in Ireland.

I personally suspect its the dying "with" covid is throwing things off and our death rate is actually much ,much lower at around 1000 deaths ie between 1.4% and 2.0% of 49000. Flu kills around 500 a year here.

The reality is we have had far more cases than 49000. It's closer to 490000. Which works out at a .3% death rate.
The testing facilities at the start of the pandemic were non existent and the there was a period of time before schools closed, business shut etc that the virus was "let rip" through the country.

is_that_so · 18-10-2020 08:42AM

Hellrazer wrote: »

I agree - the first lockdown should have been the time to get our house in order for a second wave.

Have we been caught cold again?
It definitely looks that way.Im not sure we do have the protections in place now.
I feel they've made a balls of the time they had to sort things out.

I think it's hard to say at present. Our health system presented with two problems in this, its own creaking mess and the need to get a good testing system up and running. There apparently is a surge plan so we'll have to wait and see there. The testing system has improved hugely but now cases are putting the contract tracing under severe pressure. I think we need extra strategies, like rapid testing for example. While the government is dancing all around the Plan, NPHET seem wedded to just locking us down as the only solution.

18-10-2020 08:43AM

Hellrazer wrote: »

The death rate from covid 19 is roughly 1.4% (and that's being generous - some sources say between 0.5 and 0.65%) ie out those that have a positive test 1.4% will die.

With a population of 700k over 65s then that equates to 9800 deaths.@1.4% - at 0.5% its 3500.

If you want to use the total population of the Republic @ 5 million that still only equates to 70,000 deaths and that's assuming that every man ,woman and child has a positive test - at .5% its 25000.

NPHET predicted 100k deaths. We`ve 1850 and that's even over estimated as these idiots keep using the phrase died "with" covid instead of died "from" covid.

Currently we have 49000 case and 1849 deaths. That's 3.77% of a death rate.

This shows something is seriously messed up with somewhere with either the reporting or the testing regime.

Either we aren't testing enough people to get that percentage down to the 0.5% international norm.

We are over estimating the deaths ie dying "with covid and not "from" covid

Or else we have a particular nasty strain of covid here in Ireland.

I personally suspect its the dying "with" covid is throwing things off and our death rate is actually much ,much lower at around 1000 deaths ie between 1.4% and 2.0% of 49000. Flu kills around 500 a year here.

The HSE site says that the average is between 200 and 500 flu deaths per year.
The number of flu deaths for the 2018 to 2019 was 97, you can find the reports here.
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/influenza/seasonalinfluenza/surveillance/influenzasurveillancereports/seasonsummaries/

That's the figure with a vaccine available, call them from flu or with flu depending on how it suits.

Just Saying · 18-10-2020 08:44AM

is_that_so wrote: »

It's not really as it's all about how it's recorded statistically. IFR is a complete red herring because of its emotive nature and because there is an automatic assumption that it is the big problem. Growth of cases and pressures on health systems is. Despite the potential and regrettable loss of life, those numbers now are absolutely nothing like March and April. Back then we got caught cold but now there are much better protections and better understanding of where that risk lies.

Of course its important.The poster was using every means possible to quote statistics which validated his argument and just threw in the flu comparison at the end just to basically give the impression that its not a whole lot worse that an average flu.If you are dismissing our Covid death numbers as exaggerated then its surely valid to query the method of calculating the flu numbers.

While there is no doubt that the data NHPET used in the initial stages over stated the risk and because of exponential growth rates the outcome is greatly magnified there is equally increasing evidence from the current trends that their recent predictions are far more accurate.

FWIW if I were given a guess as to what numbers died from COVID-19 my layman's guess would be around 1000 also.

Hellrazer · 18-10-2020 08:46AM

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

The reality is we have had far more cases than 49000. It's closer to 490000. Which works out at a .3% death rate.
.

Are you saying that we`re only testing 10% of cases?

If we are really only at .3% then the call for another lockdown is even more ridiculous!!!

Ellie2008 · 18-10-2020 08:46AM

Hellrazer wrote: »

They cant see this though. They want schools left open regardless of what it does to the rest of the country.

Only last week there were 10 confirmed cases in my lads secondary school. How many of them brought it home to spread throughout the community?

They are lunatics by not addressing the schools issue.

It’s definitely in children’s best interest to be in school. However, it’s also in their best interests that their parents have jobs. So if shutting the schools will ensure that jobs are restored sooner I’d vote for shutting the schools.

Alternatively could the numbers in schools be limited - only children of those still working except for 3rd-6th year.

is_that_so · 18-10-2020 08:48AM

Just Saying wrote: »

Of course its important.The poster was using every means possible to quote statistics which validated his argument and just threw in the flu comparison at the end just to basically give the impression that its not a whole lot worse that an average flu.If you are dismissing our Covid death numbers as exaggerated then its surely valid to query the method of calculating the flu numbers.

While there is no doubt that the data NHPET used in the initial stages over stated the risk and because of exponential growth rates the outcome is greatly magnified there is equally increasing evidence from the current trends that their recent predictions are far more accurate.

FWIW if I were given a guess as to what numbers died from COVID-19 my layman's guess would be around 1000 also.

In terms of management of the disease not so much but it is a way for people to resort to statistics to prove a point that is really only of interest to statistics.

Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

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