Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

TonyMaloney wrote: »

My guess is that they want weeks of exponential decay in the growth rate to get the virus back to a level we can control with restrictions.
If we open back up with relatively high numbers we'll be back where we are now within a relatively short space of time, and we're still in mid Autumn. There's a long, long way to go yet.

We could be nearly half way through the 'level 5 for 4 weeks' that NPHET were denied last time. It would undoubtedly have been really tough for many people, but we'd probably start to see case numbers fall soon enough and there'd be grounds for real optimism.

Perhaps we should start following our experts again?

NPHET made recommendations on 4th of October

Even if they had kicked in on Tuesday 6th that's 10 days

NPHET were very fond of saying any restrictions or easing of restrictions take at least 10 - 14 days to see any difference

Level 5 wouldn't be seen in the numbers at this stage the same that level three won't as its day day 10 at midnight tonight

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1317039712805203968

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1317034163262918656

The deterioration in Poland is particularly surprising, looks like they may become the worst affected country in Europe given the trajectory of the last few days

Its unfortunate that the inevitable is happening and looks like we will have to jump to level 5. We really should have at least went to Level 4 last week imo. If we did we would be nearly half way through the restrictions by now, and could have shops etc open up for mid to late November for the Christmas season.

Instead in an effort to save the economy, the government has predictably damaged it. So now we more infected, and a likely far longer level 5, that will happen during the peak Christmas shopping period. All this could have easily been avoided.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Well we're all back in the same boat again aren't we ?? Those who were quick and then us who were slow.

Didn't make much difference in the end

bb1234567 wrote: »

Armenia is a small country of 3 million not too far off Ireland's size with a nearly identical age demographic as well (average age 35), it also experienced a very similar number of deaths in the first wave (350 per million). They now look to be going into a serious second wave, and there is a war going on so I would imagine social distancing is not of utmost importance there currently. It will likely give a good indiction of the number of deaths we would experience in a more relaxed restriction scenario

Comparisons from country to country seem to be getting harder to pin down.

Virtually all of the countries in Western Europe have seen a similar pattern; first wave, loads of cases, loads of deaths. Second wave; 3-4 times the number of cases, 5-10 times less deaths.

But then we look at Czechia. First wave, well suppressed, low cases, low deaths. Second wave, 25 times the cases, 5 times the deaths.

And Armenia; First wave had similar case numbers to us but about a fifth of our deaths. Second wave, simialr cases again to us, but way more deaths.

TonyMaloney wrote: »

We could be nearly half way through the 'level 5 for 4 weeks' that NPHET were denied last time. It would undoubtedly have been really tough for many people, but we'd probably start to see case numbers fall soon enough and there'd be grounds for real optimism.

We still probably will see cases falling. Like you say, whether we were level 3, level 5, or all bolted into our homes, we still would have had 1,200 new cases yesterday.

The panic needs to end. Epidemics don't care how impatient or nervous you are. It takes 14-21 days for any public health measures to take effect.

In the first wave we were seeing the biggest number of cases being reported, 19 days after instituting a full lockdown. The downward trend didn't begin until 23 days into lockdown.

Today is day 12 of countrywide level 3.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

We're all back in the same situation that you described in your original post.

Unlocking slowly or quicker seems to have made no difference in the trajectory of infection(which was the basis of your point). Its only gone one way regardless of how quickly or slowly European countries have opened up.

We aren't, there is countries and regions within countries far worse off than us.

Madrid and Dublin are not in the same situation.

Ireland is not in the same situation at the Czech Republic or Poland.

And I imagine Ireland will continue to do better than other European countries given we are forced to be conservative given who manages our health system.

And all the other health consequences of locking down? We just ignore them again.

landofthetree wrote: »

Most restrictions in the whole of Europe.

Surprising , didn't think we were the strictest in Europe. But is it such a bad thing, Spain is seeing proportionally about 9 more deaths per day from covid than we are for the last few weeks. Also, if we had the current number of people in ICU in Spain or France per capita our health service would have collapsed already

seamus wrote: »

Virtually all of the countries in Western Europe have seen a similar pattern; first wave, loads of cases, loads of deaths. Second wave; 3-4 times the number of cases, 5-10 times less deaths.

But then we look at Czechia. First wave, well suppressed, low cases, low deaths. Second wave, 25 times the cases, 5 times the deaths.

One obvious theory is that in some countries a large percentage of the at risk people are already dead from wave 1... while countries that originally did well protecting these people are now seeing them die

An extra 2 weeks added. May not have been necessary if government followed NPHET instructions. https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1317055130987016193?s=19

Gael23 wrote: »

The economic impact of businesses missing out on the Christmas rush would be a death blow for very many

I dint think the government can ignore that

This is why I can see the government going any higher

Locking down and closing retail between now and Christmas will have huge long term consequences for jobs and the economy

They're will be some fudge to along retail to stay open. With very few cases linked to shopping i think its a sensible decision.

bb1234567 wrote: »

Surprising , didn't think we were the strictest in Europe. But is it such a bad thing, Spain is seeing proportionally about 9 more deaths per day from covid than we are for the last few weeks. Also, if we had the current number of people in ICU in Spain or France per capita our health service would have collapsed already

It is what it is to use a cliche. But I hope it will be food for thought for those lashing the government for not doing enough or not locking down hard enough.

It just underscores the point to me - there is no way out of this without a vaccine or the virus burning itself out. We have to learn to muddle through because there is absolutely nothing the government or anyone else can do to get our lives back to normal or anything approaching normal. There is no bogeyman here, there is no-one to blame. It's just a **** situation that we have to deal with until the scientists work some magic.

bb1234567 wrote: »

Surprising , didn't think we were the strictest in Europe. But is it such a bad thing, Spain is seeing proportionally about 9 more deaths per day from covid than we are for the last few weeks. Also, if we had the current number of people in ICU in Spain or France per capita our health service would have collapsed already

It's not necessarily a bad thing, and I don't think the majority of the country are against where we are now at L3, the strictest in Europe. It's why we have to go from this point into the nuclear level 5. Then we'll be by far the strictest in Europe and an outlier. Why should a country of our size ever be that much of an outlier (considering we're already one at L3). Should we not take somewhat of a lead from other European nations?

bb1234567 wrote: »

Surprising , didn't think we were the strictest in Europe. But is it such a bad thing, Spain is seeing proportionally about 9 more deaths per day from covid than we are for the last few weeks. Also, if we had the current number of people in ICU in Spain or France per capita our health service would have collapsed already

I agree that the reason we have low deaths is because we have the most restrictions.
I think people's issue is the fact that we're doing proportionately OK, but the recommendation is get even stricter again.

I don't know why they're all avoiding the elephant in the room - NPHET needs to point out that this is necessary because our hospital capacity is sh1t. If we had France's capacity, NPHET wouldn't be advising such draconian restrictions.

Because this is the question that's hanging out there - "Why is NPHET telling us to lock down when nobody else is locking down and our numbers are OK?". And the answer is decades of mismanagement and incompetence in our health service have left us with a dismally poor system utterly unable to cope with the slightest hiccup.

I think if someone was to stand up and admit that, people might be more willing to accept it.