Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

Boggles · 16-10-2020 11:00AM

mountgomery burns wrote: »

Level 5 recommended by NPHET again per Today with CB I'm told

Cabbage Broth?

16-10-2020 11:00AM

mountgomery burns wrote: »

Level 5 recommended by NPHET again per Today with CB I'm told

Needed unfortunately. People are taking the piss. ICU cases are rising. I was initially against this decision but it's needed as there are some very selfish people ruining this for everyone else.

mountgomery burns · 16-10-2020 11:01AM

Boggles wrote: »

Cabbage Broth?

Not your best work

Funsterdelux · 16-10-2020 11:02AM

mountgomery burns wrote: »

Level 5 recommended by NPHET again per Today with CB I'm told

Who told you that?

Colm Henry was on and he couldnt tell her as the letter from nphet has to go through the proper channels first.

mollser · 16-10-2020 11:04AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Needed unfortunately. People are taking the piss. ICU cases are rising. I was initially against this decision but it's needed as there are some very selfish people ruining this for everyone else.

I don't believe the economic destruction of L5 is needed.

I think the curfew option is worth looking at - everyone home by 9pm and give the cops power to fine, on the spot, anyone not at home without valid reason (essential service etc).

That there should cull parties.

Otherwise proper general enforcement powers.

Why have we got such a sizeable minority of an immature populace I'll never know.

Scuid Mhór · 16-10-2020 11:04AM

mountgomery burns wrote: »

Level 5 recommended by NPHET again per Today with CB I'm told

https://extra.ie/2020/10/16/news/irish-news/exclusive-nphet-advises-government-to-place-entire-country-in-level-5-for-six-weeks/amp

The sooner we do it, the faster we’ll get out of this mess.

odyssey06 · 16-10-2020 11:05AM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

This cannot be emphasised enough.
The currently best knowledge on worldwide IFR as published by the WHO - condensed from dozens of local studies, peer reviewed and all - has IFR at 0.05% for under 70s and 0.23% over all. There can be local fluctuations due to age structure and other factors but those are the numbers.

There will be 'local fluctuations' if ICU capacity is exceeded.
Those numbers are not static. Those are the numbers with restrictions and lockdowns in place to ensure we have ICU capacity to treat e.g. the 55-64, 65-80 demographic who have conditions.

Icyseanfitz · 16-10-2020 11:05AM

mountgomery burns wrote: »

Level 5 recommended by NPHET again per Today with CB I'm told

https://extra.ie/2020/10/16/news/irish-news/exclusive-nphet-advises-government-to-place-entire-country-in-level-5-for-six-weeks/amp

And supposedly schools fully open with full numbers :rolleyes: madness

mollser · 16-10-2020 11:06AM

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

The sooner we do it, the faster we’ll get out of this mess.

Once we go into L5, we're not coming out of it. The slowness of NPHET to allow any sort of easing of restrictions in May is testament to that.

MerlinSouthDub · 16-10-2020 11:06AM

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

The sooner we do it, the faster we’ll get out of this mess.

Or the longer we'll be stuck at level 5 with no way out..... Better to give level 3 nationwide a chance to work first. With testing delays etc, it's much too early to tell if level 3 has had an impact. We need to give it another week.

CalamariFritti · 16-10-2020 11:08AM

odyssey06 wrote: »

There will be 'local fluctuations' if ICU capacity is exceeded.
Those numbers are not static. Those are the numbers with restrictions and lockdowns in place to ensure we have ICU capacity to treat e.g. the 55-64, 65-80 demographic who have conditions.

These numbers include everything including countries where protective measure have been less than ideal with huge populations. I'm not saying we can take our eye off the ball completely but for crying out loud we're in a full on hysteria rambling about level 10 and doorbells and cutlery. Can we please regain some sort of sanity?

Derek Zoolander · 16-10-2020 11:10AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Needed unfortunately. People are taking the piss. ICU cases are rising. I was initially against this decision but it's needed as there are some very selfish people ruining this for everyone else.

are people taking the piss all across europe or just here...

i think level 5 is required and we need to do a much better job once we get the numbers down of managing borders and entrance points, and work on leveraging full test capacity to isolate virus locally...

I don't think people give enough weight to the fact its a pandemic and a virus that is extremely transmissible - the narrative of blaming everyone and anyone for the spread of it is unhelpful

speckle · 16-10-2020 11:12AM

iguana wrote: »

Is it? The British symptom study reported last month that over 60,000 people suffered symptoms for at least 3 months. It's hard to know what percentage that is of cases, as the UK struggled at least as badly as we did with testing in the early months, so like us, their confirmed cases are a fraction of their actual cases. But the thing is that Covid is so contagious and brand new that even if it's only 2-5% of people who suffer a long illness, that is a lot of people to be very sick for a long time at the same time. I would have been incapable of working from mid-March to the very end of June. I had to have a range of tests in A&E when I was at my worst. Seven months on and still I'm on and off prescription medication. I need my bloods monitored regularly because of post-viral thyroid issues. I may need an echo-cardiogram because of ongoing chest pain.

Proportionately we could be looking at several thousand people a quarter and this all adds up to pressure on a desperately struggling healthcare system. I was also lucky enough to have no experience of Chronic Fatigue Symptom. Unfortunately many people are reporting this post-Covid and those people could take absolutely years to recover and even return to work. It's not that Covid necessarily has a higher rate of these post-viral issues but that the infection rate is so high, that long-Covid in an of itself will put pressure on the healthcare system and possibly the economy for many months/maybe years after the pandemic has ended.

I think that some of the long hauler issue is compounded by two things
We are in the middle of a pandemic and that adds many different stress factors including pyschological tones to peoples recovery.
And many people in the early stages where missed diagnosis' due to the early on testing fiasco and some treated with medicines at the wrong times etc which with new knowlegde is not happening now.

When the worse of this blows over I expect the long hauler numbers to come down to the average of most viral infections and not to be as nearly bad as the original sars. And for those who were ventillated or have had the major side effects, it takes time.

illness, recovery, health.

And I wish you all the best in your recovery back to health, as I do understand that every illness and recovery is the foremost thing on that indidivuals mind now during these uncertain times.

odyssey06 · 16-10-2020 11:12AM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

These numbers include everything including countries where protective measure have been less than ideal with huge populations. I'm not saying we can take our eye off the ball completely but for crying out loud we're in a full on hysteria rambling about level 10 and doorbells and cutlery. Can we please regain some sort of sanity?

Huge populations with a totally different demographic profile \ existing condition profile to us.
This virus has the capacity to overwhelm hospital capacity.
Its number won't scale consistently once that happens.

I don't think any of that is hysteria.

People were being told they were hysterical about GAA matches... how did that end?
Shouting Hysteria is not an argument.

Gael23 · 16-10-2020 11:13AM

6 weeks seems excessive

GeorgeBailey · 16-10-2020 11:16AM

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

The sooner we do it, the faster we’ll get out of this mess.

The sooner we do it the faster we'll get out of this mess and also the faster we'll get into the next mess.

Gael23 · 16-10-2020 11:17AM

Also no other country in Europe had gone for full lockdown in this wave.

We won’t be first

Nermal · 16-10-2020 11:17AM

odyssey06 wrote: »

There will be 'local fluctuations' if ICU capacity is exceeded.
Those numbers are not static. Those are the numbers with restrictions and lockdowns in place to ensure we have ICU capacity to treat e.g. the 55-64, 65-80 demographic who have conditions.

They won't vary much, regardless of ICU capacity.

Think about it: we are hunting desperately in vain for effective treatments: ventilation, Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine. We aren't finding anything that really moves the needle.

speckle · 16-10-2020 11:17AM

Longing wrote: »

Level 3 is not having the same effect nationally has it did in Dublin when it was introduced. Dublin R rate is on the increase after 4 weeks. Why is this! Its a pity we have not got some data of people's behavior after levels have been introduced.

I think some one mentioned earlier a feed back loop from the countys into dublin as a possibilty?

bush · 16-10-2020 11:18AM

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

The sooner we do it the faster we'll get out of this mess and also the faster we'll get into the next mess.

Seroulsy. What's the point of opening up, locking down, opening up, locking down. Sick of it

Boggles · 16-10-2020 11:18AM

mollser wrote: »

Once we go into L5, we're not coming out of it. The slowness of NPHET to allow any sort of easing of restrictions in May is testament to that.

I think it is pretty much established fact now that European countries that sped up that process are now in a massive pile of shít.

ACitizenErased · 16-10-2020 11:18AM

6 weeks seems way too excessive.
Serial interval of 5-7 days means that 21 days (essentially 3 'generations' of the serial interval) should be sufficient to cut spread entirely.

Funsterdelux · 16-10-2020 11:18AM

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

The sooner we do it the faster we'll get out of this mess and also the faster we'll get into the next mess.

Less damned if you do, damned if you dont

Boggles · 16-10-2020 11:18AM

bush wrote: »

Seroulsy. What's the point of opening up, locking down, opening up, locking down. Sick of it

Protect the health service, it was mentioned once or twice on thread I think.

ShooterSF · 16-10-2020 11:18AM

mollser wrote: »

I don't believe the economic destruction of L5 is needed.

I think the curfew option is worth looking at - everyone home by 9pm and give the cops power to fine, on the spot, anyone not at home without valid reason (essential service etc).

That there should cull parties.

Otherwise proper general enforcement powers.

Why have we got such a sizeable minority of an immature populace I'll never know.

I haven't done a grocery shop before 9pm since March and I'd like to keep it that way. I also try and go to the gym at 2/3 am. This means I have the least interaction with people possible. Curfew means more people using shops and services in a smaller window which means bigger crowds.

frank8211 · 16-10-2020 11:20AM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

And supposedly schools fully open with full numbers :rolleyes: madness

That will change after we have all stayed at home and seen no one for 6 weeks and it makes no difference because pupils sit in unventilated classes all day and mysterious 'community transmission' cases keep rising.

Boggles · 16-10-2020 11:20AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

6 weeks seems way too excessive.
Serial interval of 5-7 days means that 21 days (essentially 3 'generations' of the serial interval) should be sufficient to cut spread entirely.

Depends on the reproductive number.

The recommendation was 4 weeks nearly 2 weeks ago.

There isn't a prescribed time frame that will magically cut transmission, it's variable.

bb1234567 · 16-10-2020 11:23AM

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/armenia/

Armenia is a small country of 3 million not too far off Ireland's size with a nearly identical age demographic as well (average age 35), it also experienced a very similar number of deaths in the first wave (350 per million). They now look to be going into a serious second wave, and there is a war going on so I would imagine social distancing is not of utmost importance there currently. It will likely give a good indiction of the number of deaths we would experience in a more relaxed restriction scenario

Gael23 · 16-10-2020 11:25AM

The economic impact of businesses missing out on the Christmas rush would be a death blow for very many

I dint think the government can ignore that

stephenjmcd · 16-10-2020 11:26AM

Boggles wrote: »

I think it is pretty much established fact now that European countries that sped up that process are now in a massive pile of shít.

Well we're all back in the same boat again aren't we ?? Those who were quick and then us who were slow.

Didn't make much difference in the end

Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

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