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Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

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Comments

  • #2942
    Parabellum9
    Closed Accounts Posts: 455 ✭✭Parabellum9


    Was in Dunnes earlier and seen one guy with no mask on, coughing and sneezing his way through the aisles. Maybe it's time to introduce "no mask no service" policies - if you can't wear one (or even a basic visor) for whatever makey uppey reason you claim, then send someone who can to do your shopping. It shouldn't be tolerated any longer.


  • #2943
    bennyl10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,591 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    Gael23 wrote: »
    6 weeks seems excessive

    It have been shorter if out government had had some cop a fortnight ago


  • #2944
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    6 weeks seems way too excessive.
    Serial interval of 5-7 days means that 21 days (essentially 3 'generations' of the serial interval) should be sufficient to cut spread entirely.

    My guess is that they want weeks of exponential decay in the growth rate to get the virus back to a level we can control with restrictions.
    If we open back up with relatively high numbers we'll be back where we are now within a relatively short space of time, and we're still in mid Autumn. There's a long, long way to go yet.

    We could be nearly half way through the 'level 5 for 4 weeks' that NPHET were denied last time. It would undoubtedly have been really tough for many people, but we'd probably start to see case numbers fall soon enough and there'd be grounds for real optimism.

    Perhaps we should start following our experts again?


  • #2945
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    NPHET and the Executive functions of several NPHET Members are falling short.

    The Level 5 stuff a few weeks back is looking back an even greater strategic error by NPHET. The way they acted has probably increased numbers (it increased fatigue before people were ready) and has led to even greater levels of uncertainty. It is not just what you do that counts but how you do it. The difference in March was that the lockdown was bottom up - people demanded it. The conditions were not right to do what they did two weeks ago. They needed to prepare the ground and bring people with them. That was not the way to do it and the Government was right.

    The inactions and ineptitude of the members of NPHET in their day jobs is worthy of its own thread.


  • #2946
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,766 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    My guess is that they want weeks of exponential decay in the growth rate to get the virus back to a level we can control with restrictions.
    If we open back up with relatively high numbers we'll be back where we are now within a relatively short space of time, and we're still in mid Autumn. There's a long, long way to go yet.

    We could be nearly half way through the 'level 5 for 4 weeks' that NPHET were denied last time. It would undoubtedly have been really tough for many people, but we'd probably start to see case numbers fall soon enough and there'd be grounds for real optimism.

    Perhaps we should start following our experts again?
    If only it was this simple.


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  • #2947
    MarkY91
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,071 ✭✭✭MarkY91


    Parabellum9 wrote: »
    Was in Dunnes earlier and seen one guy with no mask on, coughing and sneezing his way through the aisles. Maybe it's time to introduce "no mask no service" policies - if you can't wear one (or even a basic visor) for whatever makey uppey reason you claim, then send someone who can to do your shopping. It shouldn't be tolerated any longer.

    If you can't wear one for medical reasons they you should have some form of proof.

    No mask + no proof = get out of the shop.


  • #2948
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    odyssey06 wrote: »
    Huge populations with a totally different demographic profile \ existing condition profile to us.
    This virus has the capacity to overwhelm hospital capacity.
    Its number won't scale consistently once that happens.
    But surely now that the WHO has a global IFR, we have the ability to adjust that for Irelands demographics. Or is back to the lack of ICU beds and staff. Because if it is I have an idea who we should head hunt to get that moving.


  • #2949
    AlphaDelta1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 477 ✭✭AlphaDelta1


    Gael23 wrote: »
    Also no other country in Europe had gone for full lockdown in this wave.

    We won’t be first

    What is it about the Irish mentality of comparing ourselves to everyone else. Who cares what they are doing. Let's do what's best for us.


  • #2950
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,458 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Gael23 wrote: »
    The economic impact of businesses missing out on the Christmas rush would be a death blow for very many

    I dint think the government can ignore that

    I agree it'll have a profound impact.

    Perhaps we could have some middle ground, for example, 4 weeks of level 5 and then 2-3 weeks of level 3, therefore enabling retail to resume trading and salvage some of the Christmas trade, albeit your into December and cutting it tight. (Might allow then for level 2 over Christmas week - still a longshot)

    Also the option to allow them to reopen open but only for click and collect etc.


  • #2951
    mloc123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,454 ✭✭✭mloc123


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Well we're all back in the same boat again aren't we ?? Those who were quick and then us who were slow.

    Didn't make much difference in the end

    I think in 2-3 years time, experts will look back at all the various responses and probably conclude... it didn't matter which direction you went, in the end most will pan out the same.

    People have been quite critical of the US response, their deaths per million are at 670 compared to our 370 and the current wave 2 will probably bridge that gap.


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  • #2952
    John Hutton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,301 ✭✭✭John Hutton


    I moved home to my parents house two years ago mainly because of the housing crisis, even though I have a decent job and very good career prospects. I was evicted from my rented accommodation in Dublin and could not find anywhere else that was "affordable" in the sense that I would be able to live and save for the future and not just scrape by month to month. So I moved home to save a deposit for a house which I have done.

    I felt like quite a failure to move home after nearly ten years living my own life, but I have to say now that I am glad it happened, otherwise I would not get to see my medically vulnerable parents at all. How mad is this? And who knows when this will end? I feel so sorry for all those on their own or with relatives they are now banned from visiting.

    I don't understand why we could not have kept the lockdown going for a few more weeks to really reduce the virus, and then have the people in place so that when a virus was detected in an area, the medics descend, track, trace and test everyone. The system in place is a sham, especially in schools.


  • #2953
    OwenM
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 860 ✭✭✭OwenM


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    My guess is that they want weeks of exponential decay in the growth rate to get the virus back to a level we can control with restrictions.
    If we open back up with relatively high numbers we'll be back where we are now within a relatively short space of time, and we're still in mid Autumn. There's a long, long way to go yet.

    We could be nearly half way through the 'level 5 for 4 weeks' that NPHET were denied last time. It would undoubtedly have been really tough for many people, but we'd probably start to see case numbers fall soon enough and there'd be grounds for real optimism.

    Perhaps we should start following our experts again?

    Exponential growth/decay are much abused and misunderstood phrases and often cause fear. Exponential decay is ever slowing decay, meaning you never get to zero as the decay is less and less at every data point or interval.


  • #2954
    Parabellum9
    Closed Accounts Posts: 455 ✭✭Parabellum9


    MarkY91 wrote: »
    If you can't wear one for medical reasons they you should have some form of proof.

    No mask + no proof = get out of the shop.

    I'd even question what genuine medical reason exists that someone can't even wear a basic visor? The only one I can think of for not wearing a mask is having no ears but I hear this anxiety nonsense being bandied about as well - that's not a reason not to wear one and if they are that anxious about a mask, they should probably be more anxious about being in a crowded shop without one in the first place.


  • #2955
    funnydoggy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    I'd imagine we'll go up in levels, and many Irish businesses will close their doors never to open again.

    Scary the thought of it. Extremely depressing too.


  • #2956
    weldoninhio
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,311 ✭✭✭✭weldoninhio


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Your virtue signalling is astounding.:rolleyes:

    You’ve either replied to the wrong post or you have absolutely no idea what virtue signalling means hahahaha


  • #2957
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,565 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Well we're all back in the same boat again aren't we ?? Those who were quick and then us who were slow.

    Didn't make much difference in the end

    That depends how you quantify the "difference".

    Less people sick and less deaths I would guess are important measurements.


  • #2958
    Christy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    mloc123 wrote: »
    I think in 2-3 years time, experts will look back at all the various responses and probably conclude... it didn't matter which direction you went, in the end most will pan out the same.

    People have been quite critical of the US response, their deaths per million are at 670 compared to our 370 and the current wave 2 will probably bridge that gap.

    It seems doubtful. They are still having more deaths per capita per day than we do. They have their own issues and actions have consequences in this world. Yup we are not perfect I agree but we have done some things right which will have an effect on the total deaths.


  • #2959
    Parabellum9
    Closed Accounts Posts: 455 ✭✭Parabellum9


    funnydoggy wrote: »
    I'd imagine we'll go up in levels, and many Irish businesses will close their doors never to open again.

    Scary the thought of it. Extremely depressing too.

    There's no point going up any levels if the schools remain open, it's pointless. A month long closure of schools with properly enforced Level 3 restrictions and distancing should see the numbers drop.


  • #2960
    Gael23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,153 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    No change in ICU numbers today


  • #2961
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,251 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1317039712805203968

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1317034163262918656


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  • #2962
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,565 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Gael23 wrote: »
    No change in ICU numbers today

    3 went in 1 came out 2 died?


  • #2963
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    NPHET is recommending level 5 for 6 weeks. What then after that? We can't keep closing down like this. But then we can't all get sick at once and not receive medical care that's needed.

    There's talk of re-infections, so do we continue this over and over?


  • #2964
    funnydoggy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    Parabellum9 wrote: »
    There's no point going up any levels if the schools remain open, it's pointless. A month long closure of schools with properly enforced Level 3 restrictions and distancing should see the numbers drop.

    Good point.

    Retail is preparing for peak right now and people are preparing for Christmas, so who knows what way the numbers would go :confused:


  • #2965
    mohawk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭mohawk


    OwenM wrote: »
    I'm not aware of any quantitative analysis on long-covid cases, and it's sorely needed because the shroud wavers always raise it when it's pointed out that every revision of the covid fatality rate brings it closer and closer to influenza fatality rate. Influenza also causes a post viral syndrome, as does glandular fever.

    I would agree totally we definitely need studies on long term Covid patients. There is enough anecdotal evidence to show that plenty of people get post viral syndrome from it. Is it more prevalent in Covid patients then patients with other viruses? We don’t know.


  • #2966
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,458 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Boggles wrote: »
    That depends how you quantify the "difference".

    Less people sick and less deaths I would guess are important measurements.

    We're all back in the same situation that you described in your original post.

    Unlocking slowly or quicker seems to have made no difference in the trajectory of infection(which was the basis of your point). Its only gone one way regardless of how quickly or slowly European countries have opened up.


  • #2967
    Gael23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,153 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    Boggles wrote: »
    3 went in 1 came out 2 died?

    I can’t tell that from the data hub. I believe there was a death in Beaumont ICU yesterday


  • #2968
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Boggles wrote: »
    3 went in 1 came out 2 died?

    1 death on the 14th, 1 on the 15th

    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/coronavirus-daily-operations-updates.html


  • #2969
    AlphaDelta1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 477 ✭✭AlphaDelta1


    Levelling up now looks inevitable. If only the experts where listened to a couple of weeks back maybe there was an outside chance of having a half normal Xmas for people and business. There will now be a tsunami of closures over the next few months and people can forget about the great economic release valve of emigration taking pressure off our public finances this time around.


  • #2970
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,565 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Gael23 wrote: »
    I can’t tell that from the data hub. I believe there was a death in Beaumont ICU yesterday

    If there was 29 yesterday, 1 discharged = 28

    3 admitted = 31

    So there is 2 missing.


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  • #2971
    funnydoggy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    AlphaDelta1 wrote: »
    Levelling up now looks inevitable. If only the experts where listened to a couple of weeks back maybe there was an outside chance of having a half normal Xmas for people and business. There will now be a tsunami of closures over the next few months and people can forget about the great economic release valve of emigration taking pressure off our public finances this time around.

    F*cking hell it's gonna suck


This discussion has been closed.
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