Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

Curious_Case · 16-10-2020 10:28AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Referring to them as dogs is a stretch. I get you disagree.

It's a phrase !!!

weldoninhio · 16-10-2020 10:30AM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Unfortunately the Irish population has shown that it doesn't have the collective cop on to take responsibly for their own actions.

Im great at following advice and you probably are too we aren't getting the job done.

Edit:for the record I believe level 3 with enforcement would have had a chance to do a job but they didn't enforce. If they bring in enforcement today level 3 will be judged as a failure before the effects of enforcement come in.

As opposed to the English, Dutch, Belgian, Czechs etc who are just smashing Covid out the park. It's just the Paddys who have no cop on. :rolleyes:

Boggles · 16-10-2020 10:31AM

OwenM wrote: »

That you are implying the hospitals are discharging people before they should in order to cope and make space for the massive hordes of new patients gasping for breath that will soon flood the system.

This is a slightly dramatic take but with the level of fear out there it's not unreasonable that some would think it.

You misunderstood the question, I'll try again.

I asked you what inference have you taken from the obvious speed up in hospital discharges?

You seem obsessed with me.

Focus now.

speckle · 16-10-2020 10:31AM

petes wrote: »

So the epidemiological modelling group have no input even though they are a part of NPHET?

They do but there is much much more to epidemiology than the 'nose in the computer modelling brigade'.
For Ireland I did recently an audit for myself, of open epidemiology jobs, we have a shortage...open vacancies.

caveat emptor · 16-10-2020 10:31AM

Drumpot wrote: »

I heard that but that would suggest this is possibly a behavioural thing? The virus spreads to people and among people. If there are few resources to manage its spread in other countries but they are managing it better then it would appear that you need the people to be more responsible.

There is also strict enforcement and we have not encountered something like this in living memory. We are conditioned to not give a fvck about anyone else. This viewpoint gets thrown out as soon as something befalls them. This applies to business' and individuals. At that point the welfare state, free healthcare and bailouts are of the upmost importance.

Selfishness is a human trait, it's natural until your value system is challenged.

Boggles · 16-10-2020 10:32AM

Curious_Case wrote: »

Jackpots never go down (even after being won) that's how they make so much profit !!!

I'm pretty sure they do.

OwenM · 16-10-2020 10:33AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Referring to them as dogs is a stretch. I get you disagree.

'Every dog in the parish' is a vernacular phrase, at least I've heard it many times in my life, meaning 'everyone you can think of' and I didn't think people would think I was calling them 'dogs' and I wouldn't do it either, they are all qualified and experienced professionals.

Drumpot · 16-10-2020 10:35AM

AdamD wrote: »

Its similar to the other elements of denial in relation to Covid. It makes people feel better to think 'oh its the ones having parties, or playing gaa, or going to the beach, if we just stop that it'll all be okay'. The only way to actually stop it is lockdowns and they frankly aren't feasible in the medium term.

But no lets continue the blame game

GAA Celebrations, house parties , regular socialising (with alcohol) and gym etc are obviously more risky environments in which the virus will spread. One can say this without it being about blame, it’s about identifying the arenas in which the virus can thrive.

To be honest , trying to shift the narrative to be about “blame” doesn’t address the issue. It’s about making people who are taking these risks some sort of victims, which they are not. It’s not wrong to want to engage in these activities and it’s not wrong to desperately want to be able to do them without guilt or shame.

But the simple fact is these actions are not helping and unfortunately are actually causing damage to our efforts to slow down the spread. They aren’t comparable with schools or work which are more important activities for society on numerous levels. It’s sad and unfortunate that right now these sort of things are selfish and dangerous acts to engage in.

People are losing their lives and their jobs. People are effectively looking to justify effectively wanting to enjoy themselves while others suffer far worse damage as a result.

In terms of mental health, what are people doing to address their issue? I’ve struggled for decades with mental health issues and I can tell you that you need to get help when you are struggling. I’ve been to therapy (group/individual) over the last few months. Most people can have some level of access to it but mental health keeps getting thrown up as a blocker of sorts. You can say “this is causing me stress so it’s not fair or working”, that’s not how this works. You need to work to try and make the best that you can in this scenario.

Yes, there are people in horrible positions, who are terribly lonely/isolated and suffering more then others. But right now , the greater good needs to be taken care of and most countries are taking severe actions to keep the numbers low and protect their healthcare systems. So people need to take more responsibility for their own mental health.

And before somebody says “easy for you to say”, well this doesn’t address any of the points I’ve made. Something being easier for me and harder for you doesn’t make the decisions/strategy’s being made wrong. I’m self employed , honestly don’t know how this might affect me long run. But I suffered badly during the 2008 crisis and only in the last year have I come out of it. So I know what it’s like to be scared and worried about how I will get through a tough period.

Honestly, I’m optimistic that we can mostly fully recover within 2 years. I’m optimistic that better methods to manage the virus (including cheap home tests , vaccines) will help us get back to relative Normalcy. I also think there could be a huge bounce year of our economy as people have been saving and had less things to spend, banks are charging money to leave on deposit so people will go on sprees almost like celebrations. Prob comparable with when SSIA money flooded our economy. People still want to go on holidays so airline and hospitality jobs will mostly come back in some form.

This isn’t as bad as it feels. It’s depressing and I’ve been feeling really down about it all but deep down I know this will pass. In the summer I had already had April in mind in terms of when I was hoping maybe we would be coming out of the worst of this and I still feel that way. That’s why I’ve been getting my house as comfortable as possible and am ready for a long winter. We are all in the same boat here, I prefer to focus on what I can do then waste energy on complaining
/focusing on what i cant do. I bought a bike weeks ago as i knew at some stage my excercise classes (that would be a big part of my social activities) would prob be outlawed at some stage.

Thie April target isn’t about being pessimistic, it’s giving me some hope and giving myself a bit of an advanced warning when we have setbacks. When I see lockdown suggestions I get sad but not as surprised or upset as some people. I’m sort of ready for it.

MerlinSouthDub · 16-10-2020 10:35AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If we had actually adhered to level 3 I would agree, however the cases I am hearing of with a few work colleagues off due to close contact with confirmed cases, while in theory we are at level 3, many people are not living at level 3.

Yes, and actually hard to see people living at level 5 if we get there. Will the house parties stop? The unnecessary visits to other homes? Unlikely. I am hopeful that level 3 nationwide will push things down again, but not sure it will be enough. Then we go to level 4 or level 5 and get stuck there for god knows how long because I really can't see the infection rates rapidly falling like they did in April/May. There won't be enough adherence to the rules.

speckle · 16-10-2020 10:35AM

OwenM wrote: »

There are no actual epidemiologists on NPHET, they are statisticians and mathematicians, I've checked. This is a major failing and their credibility in my eyes is very impaired as a result.

I am agreeing with you hence the '' marks around them.:)

caveat emptor · 16-10-2020 10:35AM

OwenM wrote: »

'Every dog in the parish' is a vernacular phrase, at least I've heard it many times in my life, meaning 'everyone you can think of' and I didn't think people would think I was calling them 'dogs' and I wouldn't do it either, they are all qualified and experienced professionals.

Ah I see, sorry I've not heard that one. I've seen it on google used in the context of a smell that. "every dog in the parish" was barking / semelling etc. We tend to not refer to humans as dogs as it has extremely negative connotations. I'd still object to the phrase in this context.

My favourite vernacular phrase is "opinions are like assholes, everyone has one"

weldoninhio · 16-10-2020 10:36AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

The ‘crisis’, (if that’s what is is), that we are facing is not the danger posed by Covid, it is the sudden realisation that we are all mortal and we will all die sooner or later.
We have been lulled into a false sense of security that all diseases can be cured or eliminated and death can be avoided.
The chances of anyone dying from Covid19 are actually extremely small compared to all the other things that will cause our eventual and certain demise.
Much has been made of the danger posed to residents of nursing homes. What people seem to forget is that nursing homes have come to be used as places where people can be ‘disappeared’ by society and, quite bluntly, where people go to, or are sent to, die.
What Covid has done is to remind us that we are not invincible or immortal and that we have a limited lifespan despite all the modern ‘wonder’ drugs and medical procedures that we can avail of.
So the best we can do is live our lives to the full, enjoy it’s pleasures, and accept the risks that go with that. Life is for living, not just existing. Something will get us all in the end no matter what we do.

Agree. I wonder will church attendance rise on the back of this.

CalamariFritti · 16-10-2020 10:36AM

majcos wrote: »

Surprised by the figure for lifetime risk of dying by choking on food. Did not realise at all that it was this high.

Covid is 2-2.5 times more lethal than flu according to that data with the difference that we have no vaccine for Covid and possibly less pre-existing immunity. Covid more contagious than influenza.

0.23 IFR of all 4900000 people is over 11,000 deaths. If all were infected over a short period, the death rate would go up for Covid (and also for non Covid related issues) which is the theory behind the flatten the curve mantra

You didnt read the text you quoted. 0.05% for <70s. 0.23% for the rest. That makes it less than 3,000 not 11,000.
Look not saying 1,000 people don't count but we've been blurring the waters from the start with crappy numbers. Lets stop the crappy numbers thing.

Edit: Ugh, made an amateur mistake myself here, apologies. Not 3,000 but still less than half of 11,000. And thats not taking into account that not everyone will get infected and once a certain percentage is reached spread will slow down. Stupid mistake, again apologies, but it doesnt change the message.

TonyMaloney · 16-10-2020 10:38AM

seamus wrote: »

244 in hospital this morning, up six on yesterday, up 43 on the start of the week.

This is an encouraging sign of a slowdown in growth. This time last week we were seeing them grow by 20 people a day.

Last week from Sunday-Friday, hospitalisations grew by 33%. This week they grew by 21%.

Edit: On a Friday-Friday basis, the growth for the last seven days is 36%. For the previous seven days, 53%.

Cases in ICU grew by 43% last week (21 > 31), this week they dropped by 6.5% (31 > 29)

Discharges seem quite cyclical in nature, spiking every week. We're just at the top of a spike right now.
I threw in a trend-line in the second chart, not as any sort of predictor really, but just to show the continued divergence between discharges and admissions.

As I said yesterday, I can't think of a single positive reason why hospitalisations would be stabilising while case numbers are rising rapidly.
And now looking at the data I really don't think there's any sign of stabilisation.

mloc123 · 16-10-2020 10:40AM

Deleted User wrote: »

If we had actually adhered to level 3 I would agree, however the cases I am hearing of with a few work colleagues off due to close contact with confirmed cases, while in theory we are at level 3, many people are not living at level 3.

I have heard of plenty of people still heading into the office in Dublin each day... despite being able and allowed to WFH... they want to get out of the house

OwenM · 16-10-2020 10:40AM

Boggles wrote: »

You misunderstood the question, I'll try again.

I asked you what inference have you taken from the obvious speed up in hospital discharges?

You seem obsessed with me.

Focus now.

Condescension doesn't add to civil debate. I haven't drawn any inference and don't see any acceleration that is out of line broadly with admissions.

Boggles · 16-10-2020 10:44AM

OwenM wrote: »

Condescension doesn't add to civil debate. I haven't drawn any inference and don't see any acceleration that is out of line broadly with admissions.

Oh right. Fair enough.

Got there eventually.

speckle · 16-10-2020 10:44AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I really like your graphs... is it possible to include deaths and Icu admissions. I was going to say hospitalisation but that a bit messy at moment with the new lenght of stays up and down while they try new things? thanks

iguana · 16-10-2020 10:46AM

seamus wrote: »

The number of people who have long-term issues is statistically tiny.

Is it? The British symptom study reported last month that over 60,000 people suffered symptoms for at least 3 months. It's hard to know what percentage that is of cases, as the UK struggled at least as badly as we did with testing in the early months, so like us, their confirmed cases are a fraction of their actual cases. But the thing is that Covid is so contagious and brand new that even if it's only 2-5% of people who suffer a long illness, that is a lot of people to be very sick for a long time at the same time. I would have been incapable of working from mid-March to the very end of June. I had to have a range of tests in A&E when I was at my worst. Seven months on and still I'm on and off prescription medication. I need my bloods monitored regularly because of post-viral thyroid issues. I may need an echo-cardiogram because of ongoing chest pain.

Proportionately we could be looking at several thousand people a quarter and this all adds up to pressure on a desperately struggling healthcare system. I was also lucky enough to have no experience of Chronic Fatigue Symptom. Unfortunately many people are reporting this post-Covid and those people could take absolutely years to recover and even return to work. It's not that Covid necessarily has a higher rate of these post-viral issues but that the infection rate is so high, that long-Covid in an of itself will put pressure on the healthcare system and possibly the economy for many months/maybe years after the pandemic has ended.

innuendo141 · 16-10-2020 10:49AM

mloc123 wrote: »

I have heard of plenty of people still heading into the office in Dublin each day... despite being able and allowed to WFH... they want to get out of the house

Some companies like where I am are just ignoring what was said this week. We can work from home, but absolute silence on this for the past couple of months.

polesheep · 16-10-2020 10:51AM

weldoninhio wrote: »

Funniest sentence in the thread.

Every life is precious now that there's a disease that might effect me. 9m lives are snuffed out each year by hunger, which could be easily fixed if the political will was there. Don't see many protests about that.

Like old people drawn to church when they realise their mortality, people now claiming every life is precious when they wouldn't give a shiny shyte if there wasn't a virus around.

Strange how the human mind works and the cognitive dissonance we are blind to in ourselves.

But every life is precious, or you, like me, wouldn't be concerned about the 9m that die each year from hunger. That's not to say that we shouldn't be accepting of natural death and accept our mortality. We should. Unfortunately, it seems that with Covid, every sad loss has turned into a tragic loss in some people's minds.

polesheep · 16-10-2020 10:53AM

OwenM wrote: »

Oh every dog in the parish gets a say, but no epidemiologists.

One virologist, no epidemiologist, no immunologist and almost all of them from the DoH or the HSE. Looks to me like a lot of people protecting their patch.

Longing · 16-10-2020 10:53AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Level 3 is not having the same effect nationally has it did in Dublin when it was introduced. Dublin R rate is on the increase after 4 weeks. Why is this! Its a pity we have not got some data of people's behavior after levels have been introduced.

Curious_Case · 16-10-2020 10:53AM

Boggles wrote: »

I'm pretty sure they do.

I do beg your pardon
Another "Boggles" must have posted that they don't

16-10-2020 10:54AM

weldoninhio wrote: »

Funniest sentence in the thread.

Every life is precious now that there's a disease that might effect me. 9m lives are snuffed out each year by hunger, which could be easily fixed if the political will was there. Don't see many protests about that.

Like old people drawn to church when they realise their mortality, people now claiming every life is precious when they wouldn't give a shiny shyte if there wasn't a virus around.

Strange how the human mind works and the cognitive dissonance we are blind to in ourselves.

Your virtue signalling is astounding.:rolleyes:

CalamariFritti · 16-10-2020 10:54AM

douglashyde wrote: »

For those that care about the data, a new (peer reviewed) study published by the WHO. Here.

- Infection fatality rate is .23% on average & .05% for those <70. For context the regular flu has a mortality rate of .1%.

In any case a random person has a 431/1 chance of dying of COVID (IF you catch it). If you are <70 years of age, it's 2,000/1. Statistically Speaking.

The odds of dying of choking on food are 2600/1. Source.

I suppose what I'm trying to say is........ chew your damn food.

This cannot be emphasised enough.

The currently best knowledge on worldwide IFR as published by the WHO - condensed from dozens of local studies, peer reviewed and all - has IFR at 0.05% for under 70s and 0.23% over all. There can be local fluctuations due to age structure and other factors but those are the numbers.

If someone had told us those numbers in March the response to covid would have been 'Oh nasty, we must look into that. Who's playing at the weekend?' Yes I'm being deliberately flippant but its time we took the thumb of the panic button.

Curious_Case · 16-10-2020 10:55AM

Boggles wrote: »

They are roll overs aren't they, so would that even be possible?

#maths

There you go !!!

Boggles · 16-10-2020 10:57AM

Curious_Case wrote: »

There you go !!!

You need to go back and read the post I replied to.

mountgomery burns · 16-10-2020 10:57AM

Level 5 recommended by NPHET again per Today with CB I'm told

https://extra.ie/2020/10/16/news/irish-news/exclusive-nphet-advises-government-to-place-entire-country-in-level-5-for-six-weeks/amp

TonyMaloney · 16-10-2020 10:58AM

Longing wrote: »

Level 3 is not having the same effect nationally has it did in Dublin when it was introduced. Dublin R rate is on the increase after 4 weeks. Why is this! Its a pity we have not got some data of people's behavior after levels have been introduced.

Dublin's initial decline happened too quickly to have level 3 attributed to it. What level 3 seems to have been fairly successful in doing is keeping things somewhat suppressed in the capital.

If I had to guess what caused the initial decline, I'd go for scary case numbers and lockdown talk which gave the population a fright and so improved compliance.

Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

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