Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

16-10-2020 10:02AM

jackal wrote: »

Absolutely. So sick of this line of thinking that it’s the feckless Irish attitude, or GAA, or our uniquely virulent Pubs or our penchant for house parties that is causing numbers to go up. There must be some amount of Irish in Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Czech Republic... etc etc.

The virus spreads by normal people doing normal things is really how it could be summed up. Not granny killers coughing in people’s faces or having massive raves in basements. Normality can only be avoided for so long. The colder weather is driving much of what’s left of social activity indoors also which is not going to help but that’s the reality of the next few months as we have an unpleasant climate during the colder months.

Its similar to the other elements of denial in relation to Covid. It makes people feel better to think 'oh its the ones having parties, or playing gaa, or going to the beach, if we just stop that it'll all be okay'. The only way to actually stop it is lockdowns and they frankly aren't feasible in the medium term.

But no lets continue the blame game

OwenM · 16-10-2020 10:03AM

speckle wrote: »

Or add some proper public health specialists and the opposite of 'nose in a computer model' epidemiologists and even an anthropologist to explain how all society and culture including health is interwoven and a high risk patient representative. Then cut the main group in half and keep the sub commitees. And a totally new head of nephet Tony Holahan not good enough.

There are no actual epidemiologists on NPHET, they are statisticians and mathematicians, I've checked. This is a major failing and their credibility in my eyes is very impaired as a result.

Drumpot · 16-10-2020 10:05AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I've heard it be said that asian and African countries have faced existential public health crisis' regularly in the past so it's not their first rodeo. Even countries with extremely limited means are doing far better as they follow the public health advice. In these countries they've all lost family members young and old to "fevers".

I heard that but that would suggest this is possibly a behavioural thing? The virus spreads to people and among people. If there are few resources to manage its spread in other countries but they are managing it better then it would appear that you need the people to be more responsible.

petes · 16-10-2020 10:05AM

IK09 wrote: »

Got results today at 9.15am so about 4.5 days for the full process from start to finish. Which isnt bad at all. I think the hold up is with contact tracing. Negative result thank buddha

My sister is a close contact of someone who tested positive on Monday, only being tested today, same with her partner, their test is today also.

Something not right there.

OwenM · 16-10-2020 10:06AM

Boggles wrote: »

There was 84 "admissions" Sunday-Friday last week.

There was 130 for the same period this week.

That's a 55% increase.

Looks to be they have sped up discharges.

Are you inferring they have changed discharge criteria to speed it up? If you are do you have a basis for that?

Widdensushi · 16-10-2020 10:07AM

Boggles wrote: »

There was 84 "admissions" Sunday-Friday last week.

There was 130 for the same period this week.

That's a 55% increase.

Looks to be they have sped up discharges.

I get the impression that if you won the lottery you would be heartbroken because it was more another week!!!

petes · 16-10-2020 10:08AM

OwenM wrote: »

There are no actual epidemiologists on NPHET, they are statisticians and mathematicians, I've checked. This is a major failing and their credibility in my eyes is very impaired as a result.

So the epidemiological modelling group have no input even though they are a part of NPHET?

speckle · 16-10-2020 10:09AM

hmmm wrote: »

The photographs in this article are fantastic:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/17/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-schools-reopening-outdoors.html

We have a much gentler Winter climate than New York. Open the windows.

And keep your house or work place humidity above 40%.

Jim_Hodge · 16-10-2020 10:09AM

OwenM wrote: »

There are no actual epidemiologists on NPHET, they are statisticians and mathematicians, I've checked. This is a major failing and their credibility in my eyes is very impaired as a result.

More than Mathematicians and Statisticians, in fairness.

Dr Tony Holohan (Chair) Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health (DOH
Prof Colm Bergin – Consultant Infectious Diseases, St. James’s Hospital and Professor of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin
Mr Paul Bolger – Director, Resources Division, DOH
Dr Eibhlin Connolly – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Ms Tracey Conroy – A/Sec, Acute Hospitals Division, DOH
Dr John Cuddihy – Interim Director, Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC)
Dr Cillian de Gascun - Director, National Virus Reference Laboratory (NVRL), UCD, Consultant Virologist
Mr Colm Desmond – A/Sec, Corporate Legislation, Mental Health, Drugs Policy and Food Safety Division, DOH
Dr Lorraine Doherty – National Clinical Director for Health Protection, HPSC, HSE
Dr Mary Favier – President Irish College of General Practitioners (ICGP)
Dr Ronan Glynn – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Mr Fergal Goodman – A/Sec, Primary Care Division, DOH
Dr Colm Henry – Chief Clinical Officer, HSE
Dr Kevin Kelleher – Asst. National Director, Public Health, HSE
Ms Marita Kinsella – Director, National Patient Safety Office, DOH
Mr David Leach – Deputy National Director of Communications, HSE
Dr Kathleen Mac Lellan – A/Sec, Social Care Division, DOH
Dr Jeanette Mc Callion – Medical Assessor, Health Products Regulatory Authority (HPRA)
Mr Tom McGuinness – Asst. National Director, Office of Emergency Planning, HSE
Dr Siobhán Ní Bhrian – Lead for Integrated Care, HSE Prof Philip Nolan President, National University of Ireland, Maynooth
Ms Kate O’Flaherty – Head of Health and Wellbeing, DOH
Dr Darina O’Flanagan – Special Advisor to the NPHET, DOH
Dr Siobhan O’Sullivan – Chief Bioethics Officer, DOH
Dr Michael Power – National Clinical Lead, Critical Care Programme, HSE Consultant in Anaesthetics / Intensive Care Medicine, Beaumont Hospital
Mr Phelim Quinn – Chief Executive Officer, HIQA
Dr Máirín Ryan – Deputy Chief Executive and Director of Health Technology Assessment, HIQA
Dr Alan Smith – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Dr Breda Smyth – Director of Public Health Medicine, HSE
Mr David Walsh – National Director, Community Operations, HSE
Ms Deirdre Watters – Head of Communications, DOH
Mr Liam Woods – National Director, Acute Operations, HSE

CIARAN_BOYLE · 16-10-2020 10:10AM

OwenM wrote: »

Are you inferring they have changed discharge criteria to speed it up? If you are do you have a basis for that?

I think its more that that there was more cases 7-10 days ago so they are due their discharge.

Sweet.Science · 16-10-2020 10:11AM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

More than Mathematicians and Statisticians, in fairness.

Dr Tony Holohan (Chair) Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health (DOH
Prof Colm Bergin – Consultant Infectious Diseases, St. James’s Hospital and Professor of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin
Mr Paul Bolger – Director, Resources Division, DOH
Dr Eibhlin Connolly – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Ms Tracey Conroy – A/Sec, Acute Hospitals Division, DOH
Dr John Cuddihy – Interim Director, Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC)
Dr Cillian de Gascun - Director, National Virus Reference Laboratory (NVRL), UCD, Consultant Virologist
Mr Colm Desmond – A/Sec, Corporate Legislation, Mental Health, Drugs Policy and Food Safety Division, DOH
Dr Lorraine Doherty – National Clinical Director for Health Protection, HPSC, HSE
Dr Mary Favier – President Irish College of General Practitioners (ICGP)
Dr Ronan Glynn – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Mr Fergal Goodman – A/Sec, Primary Care Division, DOH
Dr Colm Henry – Chief Clinical Officer, HSE
Dr Kevin Kelleher – Asst. National Director, Public Health, HSE
Ms Marita Kinsella – Director, National Patient Safety Office, DOH
Mr David Leach – Deputy National Director of Communications, HSE
Dr Kathleen Mac Lellan – A/Sec, Social Care Division, DOH
Dr Jeanette Mc Callion – Medical Assessor, Health Products Regulatory Authority (HPRA)
Mr Tom McGuinness – Asst. National Director, Office of Emergency Planning, HSE
Dr Siobhán Ní Bhrian – Lead for Integrated Care, HSE Prof Philip Nolan President, National University of Ireland, Maynooth
Ms Kate O’Flaherty – Head of Health and Wellbeing, DOH
Dr Darina O’Flanagan – Special Advisor to the NPHET, DOH
Dr Siobhan O’Sullivan – Chief Bioethics Officer, DOH
Dr Michael Power – National Clinical Lead, Critical Care Programme, HSE Consultant in Anaesthetics / Intensive Care Medicine, Beaumont Hospital
Mr Phelim Quinn – Chief Executive Officer, HIQA
Dr Máirín Ryan – Deputy Chief Executive and Director of Health Technology Assessment, HIQA
Dr Alan Smith – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Dr Breda Smyth – Director of Public Health Medicine, HSE
Mr David Walsh – National Director, Community Operations, HSE
Ms Deirdre Watters – Head of Communications, DOH
Mr Liam Woods – National Director, Acute Operations, HSE

Haha that is scandalous .

OwenM · 16-10-2020 10:11AM

seamus wrote: »

We can't run on ifs.

The number of people who have long-term issues is statistically tiny.

I'm not aware of any quantitative analysis on long-covid cases, and it's sorely needed because the shroud wavers always raise it when it's pointed out that every revision of the covid fatality rate brings it closer and closer to influenza fatality rate. Influenza also causes a post viral syndrome, as does glandular fever.

Boggles · 16-10-2020 10:13AM

OwenM wrote: »

Are you inferring they have changed discharge criteria to speed it up? If you are do you have a basis for that?

It's pretty clear what I said.

Discharges have sped up, it's a fact.

Widdensushi wrote: »

I get the impression that if you won the lottery you would be heartbroken because it was more another week!!!

They are roll overs aren't they, so would that even be possible?

#maths

16-10-2020 10:13AM

OwenM · 16-10-2020 10:14AM

petes wrote: »

So the epidemiological modelling group have no input even though they are a part of NPHET?

The epidemiological modelling group don't have any epidemiologists.

Thats not a typo.

amadangomor · 16-10-2020 10:15AM

Man at work giving out about restrictions etc. fair enough, he's entitled to his opinion even if he comes across as not the brightest.

He also was not wearing a mask and not socially distancing from his colleagues.

Was going to challenge him on the no mask wearing but don't need the stress. Know his manager. What you reckon, dob him in or not?

speckle · 16-10-2020 10:16AM

seamus wrote: »

The goal here is ensuring that the system can cope. It doesn't really matter if we're admitting 1,000 people a day, if we're also discharging 1,000.

Agreed, our lenght of stay per patient was too long( understandable early on but not now)
longer than a lot of other european countries. Not hopefully with the new assement hubs that will change. They are like what is now used for Hiv and what we did with Tb when we got working meds. Simple effective public health 101.

OwenM · 16-10-2020 10:16AM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

More than Mathematicians and Statisticians, in fairness.

Dr Tony Holohan (Chair) Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health (DOH
Prof Colm Bergin – Consultant Infectious Diseases, St. James’s Hospital and Professor of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin
Mr Paul Bolger – Director, Resources Division, DOH
Dr Eibhlin Connolly – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Ms Tracey Conroy – A/Sec, Acute Hospitals Division, DOH
Dr John Cuddihy – Interim Director, Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC)
Dr Cillian de Gascun - Director, National Virus Reference Laboratory (NVRL), UCD, Consultant Virologist
Mr Colm Desmond – A/Sec, Corporate Legislation, Mental Health, Drugs Policy and Food Safety Division, DOH
Dr Lorraine Doherty – National Clinical Director for Health Protection, HPSC, HSE
Dr Mary Favier – President Irish College of General Practitioners (ICGP)
Dr Ronan Glynn – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Mr Fergal Goodman – A/Sec, Primary Care Division, DOH
Dr Colm Henry – Chief Clinical Officer, HSE
Dr Kevin Kelleher – Asst. National Director, Public Health, HSE
Ms Marita Kinsella – Director, National Patient Safety Office, DOH
Mr David Leach – Deputy National Director of Communications, HSE
Dr Kathleen Mac Lellan – A/Sec, Social Care Division, DOH
Dr Jeanette Mc Callion – Medical Assessor, Health Products Regulatory Authority (HPRA)
Mr Tom McGuinness – Asst. National Director, Office of Emergency Planning, HSE
Dr Siobhán Ní Bhrian – Lead for Integrated Care, HSE Prof Philip Nolan President, National University of Ireland, Maynooth
Ms Kate O’Flaherty – Head of Health and Wellbeing, DOH
Dr Darina O’Flanagan – Special Advisor to the NPHET, DOH
Dr Siobhan O’Sullivan – Chief Bioethics Officer, DOH
Dr Michael Power – National Clinical Lead, Critical Care Programme, HSE Consultant in Anaesthetics / Intensive Care Medicine, Beaumont Hospital
Mr Phelim Quinn – Chief Executive Officer, HIQA
Dr Máirín Ryan – Deputy Chief Executive and Director of Health Technology Assessment, HIQA
Dr Alan Smith – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Dr Breda Smyth – Director of Public Health Medicine, HSE
Mr David Walsh – National Director, Community Operations, HSE
Ms Deirdre Watters – Head of Communications, DOH
Mr Liam Woods – National Director, Acute Operations, HSE

Oh every dog in the parish gets a say, but no epidemiologists.

Gael23 · 16-10-2020 10:16AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That would suggest L3 works

OwenM · 16-10-2020 10:17AM

Boggles wrote: »

It's pretty clear what I said.

Discharges have sped up, it's a fact.

They are roll overs aren't they, so would that even be possible?

#maths

Yes what you said is clear, I was asking what inference you were drawing or asking others to draw.

Stheno · 16-10-2020 10:17AM

Gael23 wrote: »

That would suggest L3 works

Not with an R number over 1 for Dublin after four weeks

weldoninhio · 16-10-2020 10:18AM

polesheep wrote: »

I've yet to meet anyone who believes that another human being is expendable. A lot of people, myself included, speak about the need to keep the world moving, and to do that, it seems necessary to ask vulnerable people to take particular care. In addition, statistics are thrown about, such as the median age of people who die from Covid. These statistics are just that - statistics. It's looking at the situation from a population-wide perspective. It's not personal. Every life is precious. I was about to write "Try not to get stressed" but I remembered that it is a nonsensical thing to say. Just continue to look after yourself and try to remember that everyone is stressed to some degree and trying to come to terms with this in their own way. It's become a popular thing to say "Do it for others" be it wearing a mask or staying at home, but it's very important to do things for yourself too. Don't be afraid to look after your own needs.

Funniest sentence in the thread.

Every life is precious now that there's a disease that might effect me. 9m lives are snuffed out each year by hunger, which could be easily fixed if the political will was there. Don't see many protests about that.

Like old people drawn to church when they realise their mortality, people now claiming every life is precious when they wouldn't give a shiny shyte if there wasn't a virus around.

Strange how the human mind works and the cognitive dissonance we are blind to in ourselves.

funnydoggy · 16-10-2020 10:20AM

amadangomor wrote: »

Man at work giving out about restrictions etc. fair enough, he's entitled to his opinion even if he comes across as not the brightest.

He also was not wearing a mask and not socially distancing from his colleagues.

Was going to challenge him on the no mask wearing but don't need the stress. Know his manager. What you reckon, dob him in or not?

The manager surely knows if he isn't wearing a mask or distancing himself no?

Boggles · 16-10-2020 10:22AM

OwenM wrote: »

Yes what you said is clear, I was asking what inference you were drawing or asking others to draw.

What inference are you drawing from it?

16-10-2020 10:23AM

Are the government meeting today to discuss NPHETs latest letter?

16-10-2020 10:23AM

Gael23 wrote: »

That would suggest L3 works

If we had actually adhered to level 3 I would agree, however the cases I am hearing of with a few work colleagues off due to close contact with confirmed cases, while in theory we are at level 3, many people are not living at level 3.

Loafing Oaf · 16-10-2020 10:26AM

Boggles wrote: »

So, another round of Covid Bingo.

Today, it's 'Doorbells'. Did anyone have that? Anyone????

Oh right, ye all said schools.

Another roll over next week so.

It's the kind of thing a government comes out with when it's under pressure and people aren't believing the party line:

?s=fatherted&e=S02E08&i=S02E08-CmZkxvt6&t1=IT%27S%20THE%20SCHOOLS%20SPREADING%20THE%20VIRUS,&t2=ISN%27T%20IT%20FATHER?

?s=fatherted&e=S02E08&i=S02E08-CmZkxvt6&t1=IT%27S%20THE%20SCHOOLS%20SPREADING%20THE%20VIRUS,&t2=ISN%27T%20IT%20FATHER?

caveat emptor · 16-10-2020 10:27AM

OwenM wrote: »

Oh every dog in the parish gets a say, but no epidemiologists.

Referring to them as dogs is a stretch. I get you disagree.

Curious_Case · 16-10-2020 10:27AM

Boggles wrote: »

They are roll overs aren't they, so would that even be possible?

#maths

Jackpots never go down (even after being won) that's how they make so much profit !!!

OwenM · 16-10-2020 10:28AM

Boggles wrote: »

What inference are you drawing from it?

That you are implying the hospitals are discharging people before they should in order to cope and make space for the massive hordes of new patients gasping for breath that will soon flood the system.

This is a slightly dramatic take but with the level of fear out there it's not unreasonable that some would think it.

Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

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