Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

11-10-2020 12:37PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

0.8% rate of false positives if we're testing 19,000 a day means we have 152 false positives a day. That's 152 red herrings were wasting time contact tracing per day. Some are testing positive for RNA they had months ago, then we're contact tracing them as well, pretty much waste of time testing a lot of people.

No it f**king doesn't.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 11-10-2020 12:37PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

0.8% rate of false positives if we're testing 19,000 a day means we have 152 false positives a day. That's 152 red herrings were wasting time contact tracing per day. Some are testing positive for RNA they had months ago, then we're contact tracing them as well, pretty much waste of time testing a lot of people.

Low positives are retested before they go into case numbers. I don't know if they are contact traced before they are confirmed with a second test? Given that contact tracing is struggling recently I would suspect they are not contact traced until their diagnosis is confirmed.

castletownman · 11-10-2020 12:37PM

Just got confirmed positive. Had my test Friday evening at 6.20 and got the result back this morning so decent turnover. It seems to have spread like wildfire from post-county final socialising on Sunday and Monday. I feel ashamed in myself.

Have zero symptoms and feel perfectly fine but of course start getting panicky whenever I think there is a fever, headache or loss of taste coming on.

Have to self-isolate now till Saturday, which doesn't seem too daunting

Strumms · 11-10-2020 12:38PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Fair has nothing to do with. passports like . Lots of people in the north work in the south so pay taxes..

Fair has everything to do with it. Interesting you believe it doesn’t.

I’ve worked in France, paid taxes there as well as other countries, Northern Ireland, Spain , Denmark but I’m not under any illusion that I should be of the ability to pick and choose my destination for to be in receipt of free hospital treatment if I need it, based on me having just paid tax there... for a time.

drunkmonkey · 11-10-2020 12:38PM

Deleted User wrote: »

No it f**king doesn't.

No it f**king doesn't, what?

CruelSummer · 11-10-2020 12:38PM

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/education/education-officials-pushing-for-schools-to-stay-open-39608940.html

Glad to see the Department of Education take a long awaited stand against the constant press re school closures. It's very unsettling for children and parents, and they should present all the models which indicate the severe lifelong outcomes on our younger generation should weeks or particularly months more of Education be sacrificed. If things do get a lot worse here re hospital capacity, blended learning could be an option. Keeping children in touch with their teachers and their school.

Ficheall · 11-10-2020 12:39PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I would absolutely love to have the time in life to be THIS offended by somebody on the internet, damn

Poster is correct though. You amassed a large following by copypasting data (which was often appreciated), and so people with no grasp of numbers then seemed to believe your "numbers guy" spiel and assigned undue weight to your opinions when you consistently downplayed people's concerns and the numbers. That people lack critical faculties of their own is not your fault, of course, but you've definitely done your bit to spread complacency among readers of boards, and the poster can probably be forgiven for frustration.

11-10-2020 12:39PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

0.8% rate of false positives if we're testing 19,000 a day means we have 152 false positives a day. That's 152 red herrings were wasting time contact tracing per day. Some are testing positive for RNA they had months ago, then we're contact tracing them as well, pretty much waste of time testing a lot of people.

As usual you don't know what your talking about

podgeandrodge · 11-10-2020 12:39PM

castletownman wrote: »

Just got confirmed positive. Had my test Friday evening at 6.20 and got the result back this morning so decent turnover. It seems to have spread like wildfire from post-county final socialising on Sunday and Monday. I feel ashamed in myself.

Have zero symptoms and feel perfectly fine but of course start getting panicky whenever I think there is a fever, headache or loss of taste coming on.

Have to self-isolate now till Saturday, which doesn't seem too daunting

What sort of venues/contacts with others were you in castletownman if you don't mind me asking? HOpe you better soon.

drunkmonkey · 11-10-2020 12:39PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Low positives are retested before they go into case numbers. I don't know if they are contact traced before they are confirmed with a second test? Given that contact tracing is struggling recently I would suspect they are not contact traced until their diagnosis is confirmed.

What is your take on the false positive rate, is it .8%, that's the number in the UK.

11-10-2020 12:40PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

No it f**king doesn't, what?

You don't understand false positives. It doesn't mean 0.8% of all tests will return a false positive it means 0.8% of the positive results may be a false positive. If you test 19,000 and 1,000 test positive and you're rate of false positives is 0.8% it is 8 false positives. Not 152.

11-10-2020 12:41PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

0.8% rate of false positives if we're testing 19,000 a day means we have 152 false positives a day. That's 152 red herrings were wasting time contact tracing per day. Some are testing positive for RNA they had months ago, then we're contact tracing them as well, pretty much waste of time testing a lot of people.

From what the poster has said, these aren’t being reported as positive cases. 1.2% are low positives and are retested. If these 0.8% get confirmed as false positives and are not included in cases, and 0.4% are confirmed as actual positives and included.

Necro · 11-10-2020 12:41PM

castletownman wrote:

Have zero symptoms and feel perfectly fine but of course start getting panicky whenever I think there is a fever, headache or loss of taste coming on.

Good to hear you have no symptoms so far anyways castletownman. Just keep an eye on yourself and ring your GP if you start to feel off is all you can do.

Hope you will be ok.

Ficheall · 11-10-2020 12:42PM

castletownman wrote: »

Just got confirmed positive. Had my test Friday evening at 6.20 and got the result back this morning so decent turnover. It seems to have spread like wildfire from post-county final socialising on Sunday and Monday. I feel ashamed in myself.

Have zero symptoms and feel perfectly fine but of course start getting panicky whenever I think there is a fever, headache or loss of taste coming on.

Have to self-isolate now till Saturday, which doesn't seem too daunting

You will be fine

But I am surprised at only one week's isolation - is that the norm now?

drunkmonkey · 11-10-2020 12:42PM

Deleted User wrote: »

You don't understand false positives. It doesn't mean 0.8% of all tests will return a false positive it means 0.8% of the positive results may be a false positive. If you test 19,000 and 1,000 test positive and you're rate of false positives is 0.8% it is 8 false positives. Not 152.

Your completely wrong, the .8% has to be on all the tests not just the positive cases.

castletownman · 11-10-2020 12:42PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

What sort of venues/contacts with others were you in castletownman if you don't mind me asking? HOpe you better soon.

In the local pub Sunday night after the match (social distancing at a premium) and again the following day. Its notable how many lads got it who were in the same spot. Other than that haven't really stirred anywhere publically all week. Privately, was in my GF's house twice too.

Oranage2 · 11-10-2020 12:43PM

El Sueño wrote: »

It's been explained a million times why zero covid won't work here, why is it still being mentioned by the same posters? Are they being deliberately obtuse or what?

How can China with 1.4 billion people and 14 land borders do it?

How can Vietnam with 100 million people and 3 land borders do it.

Taiwan

New Zealand

Montenegro has 6 land borders

All these countries are covid free. And when covid infects the countries again it's not a loss, the battle hard again and defeat it. If these countries can do it then Ireland certainly can.

Always_Running · 11-10-2020 12:43PM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Id give it another 2 weeks in Dublin before declaring victory

I said progress no mention of victory and it will need at least another 2 to 3 weeks of level 3 restrictions.

I Am The Law · 11-10-2020 12:43PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Instead, Dr Nabarro is advocating for a new approach to containing the virus.

"And so, we really do appeal to all world leaders: stop using lockdown as your primary control method. Develop better systems for doing it. Work together and learn from each other."

Another pointless post, "advocating a new approach" is not a solution.

"Develop better systems" , "Work together" , sounds like leo wrote it.

WHO need to do better than this.

CruelSummer · 11-10-2020 12:44PM

Ficheall wrote: »

Poster is correct though. You amassed a large following by copypasting data (which was often appreciated), and so people with no grasp of numbers then seemed to believe your "numbers guy" spiel and assigned undue weight to your opinions when you consistently downplayed people's concerns and the numbers. That people lack critical faculties of their own is not your fault, of course, but you've definitely done your bit to spread complacency among readers of boards, and the poster can probably be forgiven for frustration.

I have to say the attempt on this thread by certain posters to silence a younger poster who provides their own insights and opinions, which they are perfectly entitled to do, needs to be highlighted for what it is. An attempt to bully someone off the thread. There are many posters providing numbers and you can choose to do your own research or interpret them how you like. Shameful behaviour by certain posters on this thread, who seem to favour the blaming of members of society, alienation, and attacking those who are thinking critically about the current situation.

castletownman · 11-10-2020 12:45PM

Ficheall wrote: »

You will be fine But I am surprised at only one week's isolation - is that the norm now?

According to the Public Health person who talked to me on the phone, it was ten days from when I first displayed symptoms, which was on Wednesday (and what I assumed was a touch of a head cold).

stephenjmcd · 11-10-2020 12:45PM

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1315256518107955200?s=19

DeanAustin · 11-10-2020 12:46PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

How can China with 1.4 billion people and 14 land borders do it?

How can Vietnam with 100 million people and 3 land borders do it.

Taiwan

New Zealand

Montenegro has 6 land borders

All these countries are covid free. And when covid infects the countries again it's not a loss, the battle hard again and defeat it. If these countries can do it then Ireland certainly can.

I wouldn’t believe the Chinese numbers.

Asian countries have a very different mindset to Western countries when it comes to society versus the individual. We’ve prioritised the rights of the individual, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it makes it impossible to get your population to act in the best interests of society by restricting their lives when most people will never be adversely affected by the virus even if they get it.

Icyseanfitz · 11-10-2020 12:46PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1315256518107955200?s=19

Ffs, if keeping schools open is a priority make them ****ing safe :mad:

rob316 · 11-10-2020 12:47PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

How can China with 1.4 billion people and 14 land borders do it?

How can Vietnam with 100 million people and 3 land borders do it.

Taiwan

New Zealand

Montenegro has 6 land borders

All these countries are covid free. And when covid infects the countries again it's not a loss, the battle hard again and defeat it. If these countries can do it then Ireland certainly can.

New Zealand again. It's an island on the other side of the world six hours away from the nearest country.

You have to be really uneducated to thing covid free is possible in western Europe.

JP100 · 11-10-2020 12:47PM

CruelSummer wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/education/education-officials-pushing-for-schools-to-stay-open-39608940.html

Glad to see the Department of Education take a long awaited stand against the constant press re school closures.

Nonsense, they singularly failed to put a plan B in place for the possibility of school closures. In light of such negligence, they've no choice but to push for schools to remain open and irrespective of case numbers in the community. This is about the Department trying to hide their own incompetence as much as anything else.

drunkmonkey · 11-10-2020 12:49PM

Deleted User wrote: »

From what the poster has said, these aren’t being reported as positive cases. 1.2% are low positives and are retested. If these 0.8% get confirmed as false positives and are not included in cases, and 0.4% are confirmed as actual positives and included.

So what's our false positive rate the CCO was meant to put it in writing to the covid response committee as he didn't know when questioned, I haven't seen the number made public. The UK are running at around .8% by estimates but a Newstalk tweet from De Gascun said ours was .2%

owlbethere · 11-10-2020 12:50PM

The biggest problem area for transmissions, as I see it from this, is occurring from private households. I presume maybe from household gatherings/parties.

The level 3 restricts pubs/restaurants/cafes/hotels. It's not going to target the problem area where transmissions are occurring.

DeanAustin · 11-10-2020 12:50PM

rob316 wrote: »

New Zealand again. It's an island on the other side of the world six hours away from the nearest country.

You have to be really uneducated to thing covid free is possible in western Europe.

Absolutely right. You can’t make it happen unless you close the country until a vaccine is found. Even then, we have a loose border with a country where the virus is rampant. Zero covid is not a viable strategy.

Oranage2 · 11-10-2020 12:50PM

rob316 wrote: »

New Zealand again. It's an island on the other side of the world six hours away from the nearest country.

You have to be really uneducated to thing covid free is possible in western Europe.

Your facts are wrong and you've spelling mistakes!

Apologies for the uncivil posting Rob.

But your facts are not quite right. Sydney is 3 hours away from New Zealand by plane.

The Faroe Islands and Montenegro are both countries in Europe that are Covid free. Iceland were doing well until recently too.

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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