Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

polesheep · 11-10-2020 01:10AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's likely to do with viral load as far as I know

It's also to do with the individual. Some people can cut their arm off and find their way out of the wilderness, while others pass out when they get a thorn in their thumb. We all react differently and it's very difficult to gauge the severity of symptoms until they become serious.

New Home · 11-10-2020 01:11AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Argentina’s current positivity rate is 62.5%......

Lots of Citizen Erased, there....

PowerToWait · 11-10-2020 01:11AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I honestly think all these 'told you so' comments are disgusting. Acting as if everyone's playing some sort of game. This is far from a game.

You have your shyte. You've been on here hourly for months finding excuses for every cluster, outbreak and rise in numbers. 'Analysing' the numbers like some self appointed lord of statistics, discounting everyone with even a passing concern that things were looking like they could get worse. Insulting and denigrating posters for 'hysteria' and 'fear mongering'.

Now you are confronted with the cold reality that the fcuking shiit has hit the fan, things are going to hell in a handbag and all you cared about was how Cork was doing better than Dublin and how the GAA shouldn't be persecuted.

Now it's all coming back to bite you, there's egg on your face, the 'doom sayers' were right and the country is going to be in a fcuking heap by Christmas, no economy, no healthcare, no fcuk all because pints and the ****ty junior B was more important than everything else.

speckle · 11-10-2020 01:11AM

tom1ie wrote: »

Surely has to be viral load?

would need data to back that up, was wondering if other countrys % of healthcare workers in ICU is as a percentage is around the same. (That would exclude the very high amount of healthcare worker positives here.)

polesheep · 11-10-2020 01:13AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Surely there is a line where freedom to protest becomes public endangerment and incitement to riot , and needs to be dealt with as such ?

But who is to gauge that? The quality of life we enjoy today, even democracy itself, was in part won by people who were considered to be inciting trouble.

Icyseanfitz · 11-10-2020 01:17AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Ours is on the brink of collapse every winter. Thankfully the HSE had from March to prepare.....

It sure is, but then add a global pandemic on top of our usual winter **** show and its going to be mayhem.

Plumbthedepths · 11-10-2020 01:18AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Communication and transparency will be critical for buy in.

Unfortunately, not something NPHET are renowned for.

The government doesn't cover itself in glory when it comes to communication either TBF.

polesheep · 11-10-2020 01:19AM

alentejo wrote: »

At this stage, I wish they would just announce the full lock down. Not that i want it or agree with it, just cant stand the media and constant "lock down now brigade". This is very difficult on mental health

If you think media is changing your thought out position... switch it off.

Plumbthedepths · 11-10-2020 01:20AM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

It sure is, but then add a global pandemic on top of our usual winter **** show and its going to be mayhem.

The HSE was aware of the pandemic in March when the country was locked down. The plan was to flatten the curve and buy time for the health service are you suggesting that time was squandered? I'm shocked.

Away With The Fairies · 11-10-2020 01:20AM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

It sure is, but then add a global pandemic on top of our usual winter **** show and its going to be mayhem.

And we're only at the start of it.

Plumbthedepths · 11-10-2020 01:24AM

PowerToWait wrote: »

You have your shyte. You've been on here hourly for months finding excuses for every cluster, outbreak and rise in numbers. 'Analysing' the numbers like some self appointed lord of statistics, discounting everyone with even a passing concern that things were looking like they could get worse. Insulting and denigrating posters for 'hysteria' and 'fear mongering'.

Now you are confronted with the cold reality that the fcuking shiit has hit the fan, things are going to hell in a handbag and all you cared about was how Cork was doing better than Dublin and how the GAA shouldn't be persecuted.

Now it's all coming back to bite you, there's egg on your face, the 'doom sayers' were right and the country is going to be in a fcuking heap by Christmas, no economy, no healthcare, no fcuk all because pints and the ****ty junior B was more important than everything else.

Are you blaming ACE for the pandemic? Cop on to yourself. He's a young man trying to make sense of the **** storm he is in just like the rest of us. We say stuff we regret make assumptions we shouldn't but Christ almighty there is seriously no need for an attack like this.

growleaves · 11-10-2020 01:26AM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

And we're only at the start of it.

???

We're two months into the second wave. Four months according to Prof Killeen.

Have we at least reached what Winston Churchill called "not the beginning of the end but the end of the beginning"?

polesheep · 11-10-2020 01:28AM

speckle wrote: »

would need data to back that up, was wondering if other countrys % of healthcare workers in ICU is as a percentage is around the same. (That would exclude the very high amount of healthcare worker positives here.)

We need a detailed breakdown of 'health care workers'. How many infected health care workers were in the nursing/care home sector where they were left without adequate PPE?

Away With The Fairies · 11-10-2020 01:28AM

growleaves wrote: »

???

We're two months into the second wave. Four months according to Prof Killeen.

Have we at least reached what Winston Churchill called "not the beginning of the end but the end of the beginning"?

We're at the start of winter. I don't think we've seen the worst of it yet.

Arghus · 11-10-2020 01:29AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

An incredibly expensive lesson to find out it only kicks the can down the road.

The whole point of it is kicking the can down the road.

If you don't kick the can down the road you deal with it all up front and your hospitals become overwhelmed and many more people become seriously ill and/or die - and not just from Covid.

"It's only kicking the can down the road" - Yes, exactly. Unless you are actively aiming for elimination that is the aim. Kick the can down the road, suppress it enough to keep the health system functional, try to save lives and hope to God that a vaccine or some breakthrough in treatment arrives sooner rather than later.

polesheep · 11-10-2020 01:32AM

PowerToWait wrote: »

You have your shyte. You've been on here hourly for months finding excuses for every cluster, outbreak and rise in numbers. 'Analysing' the numbers like some self appointed lord of statistics, discounting everyone with even a passing concern that things were looking like they could get worse. Insulting and denigrating posters for 'hysteria' and 'fear mongering'.

Now you are confronted with the cold reality that the fcuking shiit has hit the fan, things are going to hell in a handbag and all you cared about was how Cork was doing better than Dublin and how the GAA shouldn't be persecuted.

Now it's all coming back to bite you, there's egg on your face, the 'doom sayers' were right and the country is going to be in a fcuking heap by Christmas, no economy, no healthcare, no fcuk all because pints and the ****ty junior B was more important than everything else.

You do realise that this post could come back to bite YOU?

Plumbthedepths · 11-10-2020 01:35AM

Arghus wrote: »

The whole point of it is kicking the can down the road.

If you don't kick the can down the road you deal with it all up front and your hospitals become overwhelmed and many more people become seriously ill and/or die - and not just from Covid.

"It's only kicking the can down the road" - Yes, exactly. Unless you are actively aiming for elimination that is the aim. Kick the can down the road, suppress it enough to keep the health system functional, try to save lives and hope to God that a vaccine or some breakthrough in treatment arrives sooner rather than later.

My response was in reply to the German situation. Our experience here, we have a health service not fit for purpose, an organisation that squandered the time bought for it by a very expensive and damaging lockdown only to require a further lockdown due to incompetence but hey ho.

Arghus · 11-10-2020 01:37AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

My response was in reply to the German situation. Our experience here, we have a health service not fit for purpose, an organisation that squandered the time bought for it by a very expensive and damaging lockdown only to require a further lockdown due to incompetence but hey ho.

I wouldn't be jumping to conclusions that we'll be the only ones dealing with lockdown over the Winter.

speckle · 11-10-2020 01:37AM

polesheep wrote: »

We need a detailed breakdown of 'health care workers'. How many infected health care workers were in the nursing/care home sector where they were left without adequate PPE?

went looking in last couple of minutes for international experiences, noting there are differences regarding HCWs in each country.

Found two reserch papers, usa, holland and city of presumed origin to compare with Ireland.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2766223

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6938a3.htm

would need to read in more detail, but looks ss if we may have a higher % of HCWs hospitalised and ICU'd.

One other thing standing out is the percentage of HCWs potentially not contracting it at work. Dont want to add tinder to the blame game but it does need to be looked into just like everthing else.

Plumbthedepths · 11-10-2020 01:39AM

New Home wrote: »

Lots of Citizen Erased, there....

As a Mod would you tolerate the personal stuff on the forum you Mod?

Plumbthedepths · 11-10-2020 01:43AM

Arghus wrote: »

I wouldn't be jumping to conclusions that we'll be the only ones dealing with lockdown over the Winter.

I'm not jumping to conclusions at all, I ventured an opinion on a comment about Germany. Equally will you be disappointed if Germany doesn't experience the mess incoming for the HSE this winter (as it does every winter) not withstanding the added bonus of Covid. If only they had some advance lull.

New Home · 11-10-2020 01:46AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

As a Mod would you tolerate the personal stuff on the forum you Mod?

You might have misinterpreted what I meant. Wouldn't be a first.

majcos · 11-10-2020 01:46AM

speckle wrote: »

Is that a higher then norm percentage of ICU admissions for healthcare workers than the general public per hospitalised cases? What is the causes ethic background, co morbidtys including weight?

And you mentioned elderly not being admitted due to age to ICU, is that unfair as Germany posted recently the death rate for the over 80s is 11%?

Yes. It is higher percentage of of healthcare workers admitted to ICU compared to other hospitalised cases. Of all cases hospitalised, 12.8% of them have ended up in ICU. 17.2% of healthcare workers admitted to hospitals ended up in ICUs. The overall patient group however, would not be a comparable group to the group of hospitalised healthcare workers as the HCW would be younger and far less likely to have significant co-morbidity and therefore if deteriorated, far more likely to be considered for ICU care. Less sick HCWs would be more likely to remain at home and capable of self-treatment so severity in illness could be skewed in those actually hospitalized.

Don’t have the breakdown of ethnicity or underlying conditions of HCWs admitted to ICU in Ireland but ethnicity differences are very striking when look at data. Deceased doctors of BAME ethnicity account for 94% of the total deaths figures in the UK, but make up 44% of the workforce. Similar figures among nurses; 71% of COVID-19 fatalities were in the BAME group, but make up only 20% of the workforce.

Age is not only factor when comes to deciding re ICU admission but is a major consideration. There are specific scoring systems used that combine age with co-morbidities and frailty scores as well as judgement of treating physician and ICU staff.

Although many over 80s will survive, if they get to the point of actually needing ICU care based on parameters such as oxygen levels and BP, then their likelihood of survival is very low regardless of receiving such care or not even they are/were a relatively healthy 80 year old. Age will not completely exclude someone from ICU but will be closely considered. Putting anyone through ICU care is a major battle and if likelihood of surviving is very low then consideration will be made as to whether that is the kindest thing to do. Even if survive, a good recovery from ICU for an older person back to their previous level of health is less likely so some may decide for themselves that it is not something they want to go through.

Pinch Flat · 11-10-2020 01:49AM

Be interesting to read back on this thread in January 2021. I think we're in for a sobering wake up call over the next 3 -4 months.

The_Brood · 11-10-2020 01:50AM

Apartment building next door - one of the apartments is having a massive full on party.

Rang the guards, and they said they cant even check it out because there is no one to let them into the building.

What the hell?

In most other countries the police will smash through your ass and throw you out on the streets no questions asked...while here the gardai cant investigate illegal activities because they don't have a key?

I guess we deserve endless lockdowns and depressing misery if we have voted in legislators that have left the guards utterly powerless.

growleaves · 11-10-2020 01:50AM

WHO: 10% of world’s people may have been infected with virus

GENEVA (AP) — The head of emergencies at the World Health Organization said Monday the agency’s “best estimates” indicate roughly 1 in 10 people worldwide may have been infected by the coronavirus — more than 20 times the number of confirmed cases

If the WHO's "best estimates" above are correct then that would mean the IFR is 0.14%

Arghus · 11-10-2020 01:51AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I'm not jumping to conclusions at all, I ventured an opinion on a comment about Germany. Equally will you be disappointed if Germany doesn't experience the mess incoming for the HSE this winter (as it does every winter) not withstanding the added bonus of Covid. If only they had some advance lull.

Dissapointed? Why would I be Dissapointed? That implies I'm somehow looking forward excitedly to the prospect of countries going into lockdown and I'll be somehow dissapointed if it doesn't happen. That's a strange way of characterising my view on it to be honest. I'd be pleasently surprised if countries can avoid such an outcome. Wouldn't any sane person?

Plumbthedepths · 11-10-2020 01:52AM

New Home wrote: »

You might have misinterpreted what I meant. Wouldn't be a first.

Prehaps I have. I know ACE is a young man of 21, I have a son the same age. Kind of pissed off at the amount of personal attack he receives. Like all of us he is dealing with this mess the best he can , except I believe without the experience of age many commenting here have. I despise bullies. Apologies if I jumped the gun.

Wolf359f · 11-10-2020 01:53AM

speckle wrote: »

went looking in last couple of minutes for international experiences, noting there are differences regarding HCWs in each country.

Found two reserch papers, usa, holland and city of presumed origin to compare with Ireland.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2766223

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6938a3.htm

would need to read in more detail, but looks ss if we may have a higher % of HCWs hospitalised and ICU'd.

One other thing standing out is the percentage of HCWs potentially not contracting it at work. Dont want to add tinder to the blame game but it does need to be looked into just like everthing else.

You also need to compare the % of HCW's infected of the total number of HCW's vs the % of HCW's infected of total positive cases (compare apples to apples etc..)
1 in 20 people in the country work in healthcare, so statistically 5% of 41714 cases would be HCW's being infected (2085). The excess would be down to risks dealing with Covid in hospitals.
Granted with inadequate PPE at the start, that would have driven up the infection rate.

New Home · 11-10-2020 01:55AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Prehaps I have. I know ACE is a young man of 21, I have a son the same age. Kind of pissed off at the amount of personal attack he receives. Like all of us he is dealing with this mess the best he can , except I believe without the experience of age many commenting here have. I despise bullies. Apologies if I jumped the gun.

See, I wasn't referring to him at all. It was a remark on his username and on the number of citizens erased by covid, in Argentina and elsewhere. So yes, you did jump the gun.

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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