Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

Plumbthedepths · 10-10-2020 11:57PM

Wonder what do the Germans know that the government here doesn't?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/saturday-read-can-we-save-lives-and-livelihoods-in-the-fight-against-covid-39603010.html

Eod100 · 10-10-2020 11:57PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

So I wonder exactly how 'short' a lockdown Leo has in mind. Surely he doesn't believe a fortnight, say, would sort us out?

Any restrictions have been 3 weeks at least. Yet 3 weren't enough for Kildare or Dublin. Or Donegal. Would think it would need to be at least 3. Maybe that's only thing that will differentiate it from NPHET's 4 week recommendation

ACitizenErased · 10-10-2020 11:59PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Wonder what do the Germans know that the government here doesn't?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/saturday-read-can-we-save-lives-and-livelihoods-in-the-fight-against-covid-39603010.html

My brother lives in southern Germany with his wife. They, nor anyone they know in the city, have been infected.

Clusters are dealt with very simply - the establishment/type of venue is named, people are told to cop on.
On the spot fine if you're not wearing a mask (albeit they have the Ordnungsamp (Order Police) to enforce their rules) in a shop/on a busy street.
The city of almost 300,000 people has about 10 cases per day, max.
They'll never, ever be in lockdown again.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2020 11:59PM

Kh1993 wrote: »

Does anyone believe this circuit breaker (the new Covid buzz word) will actually last it’s stated 3/4 weeks and not end up being perpetually extended? Especially if it doesn’t show results quickly. Which it probably won’t in that short time.

This is not April. We are heading in to flu season.

The most serious test of resolve for everyone is fast approaching.

No one knows the impact seasonal changes will have now. The CDC in the United States believe the northern hemisphere faces it's biggest epidemiological challenge in living memory and certainly back to the Spanish Flu this coming winter and spring.

Countries are going to have to be prepared to take strong measures and hope the results go our way.

That's all we can do.

Icyseanfitz · 11-10-2020 12:01AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Wonder what do the Germans know that the government here doesn't?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/saturday-read-can-we-save-lives-and-livelihoods-in-the-fight-against-covid-39603010.html

For one id imagine their healthcare system isn't on the brink of collapse like ours...... Again

US2 · 11-10-2020 12:01AM

majcos wrote: »

Probability rate of a 51 year dying in a given year is 0.005462 according to US figures. Definitely not common. Probability of a previously healthy 51 year old dying would be even lower.

Probability of an individual being diagnosed with Covid in Ireland is still low if you look at 14 day incidence rate at the moment in Ireland of 130 per 100,000.

Probability of healthy 51 year old dying and being diagnosed with Covid within a month and the two being unrelated must be extremely low.

The average ages of death From heart attack is 56 I think ?

The poster stated that the 51 year old died soley from covid so it's cleared up. Obesity isn't counted as an underlying condition, it should be. There's no healthy people getting sick from this nevermind dien.

Average age of covid deaths - 88

Life expectancy - 82

They got 6 bonus years .

Kh1993 · 11-10-2020 12:01AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is not April. We are heading in to flu season.

The most serious test of resolve is for everyone is fast approaching.

No one knows the impact seasonal changes will have now. The CDC in the United States believe the northern hemisphere faces it's biggest epidemiological challenge in living memory and certainly back to the Spanish Flu this coming winter and spring.

Countries are going to have to be prepared to take strong measures and hope the results go our way.

That's all we can do.

So the gist of this is lockdown and hope for the best?

Goldengirl · 11-10-2020 12:01AM

hmmm wrote: »

There's not much point us shifting to Level 5 and closing lots of retail and laying off hundreds of thousands if that's not causing the spread. I see a lot of people saying "oh we should go to level 5" as if it's a magic bullet.

Schools are, unfortunately, the obvious big ticket item which remains open. I'd shut them well before I'd move to Level 4 or 5.

Yes agree .
However they want to keep schools going as long as possible , so everything else is being sacrificed for this .
But it may end up choice between hospital capacity and schools .
I hope things slow down long before that scenario.

Icyseanfitz · 11-10-2020 12:02AM

Kh1993 wrote: »

So the gist of this is lockdown and hope for the best?

Have you a better solution?

US2 · 11-10-2020 12:04AM

Kh1993 wrote: »

So the gist of this is lockdown and hope for the best?

The southern hemisphere is coming out of winter flu season just now. Flu as good as disappeared down there this winter. Expect the same here due to distancing, and restrictions

caveat emptor · 11-10-2020 12:04AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Say there'll be a lot more of that in dublin in coming weeks

It looks like the gardai were being a bit too nice. It pains me to say it but I think we need robocop back on the frontline. I understand he is a doctor now, just tell him his desk job is safe and he doesn't need to have his number on display :pac:

6034073

https://www.thesun.ie/news/3123943/garda-hit-man-baton-during-protests-expert-ethics/

11-10-2020 12:04AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Wonder what do the Germans know that the government here doesn't?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/saturday-read-can-we-save-lives-and-livelihoods-in-the-fight-against-covid-39603010.html

By the looks of things, put a lot of money into health, bonuses for health care workers, double parental leave and close schools and child care locally when needed

https://www.deutschland.de/en/news/german-federal-government-informs-about-the-corona-crisis

hmmm · 11-10-2020 12:05AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes agree .
However they want to keep schools going as long as possible , so everything else is being sacrificed for this .
But it may end up choice between hospital capacity and schools .
I hope things slow down long before that scenario.

Hopefully.

With what we know about the virus & the situations it spreads rapidly in (indoor, lots of people talking, poor ventilation) we've closed most of these venues. 30 people aren't getting infected at a time in a clothes shop or a hardware store, so shutting them is going to put thousands out of work with little impact on the virus spread.

The two big indoor things left in my opinion are public transport and schools. And while we are making the right choice by trying to keep schools open, I think they should be next in line if we need more measures.

Kermit.de.frog · 11-10-2020 12:06AM

Kh1993 wrote: »

So the gist of this is lockdown and hope for the best?

My view is the best case is rolling lock downs, with periods of relief.

I don't see how else health services can be protected from being overwhelmed over this winter.

stephenjmcd · 11-10-2020 12:06AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is not April. We are heading in to flu season.

The most serious test of resolve for everyone is fast approaching.

No one knows the impact seasonal changes will have now. The CDC in the United States believe the northern hemisphere faces it's biggest epidemiological challenge in living memory and certainly back to the Spanish Flu this coming winter and spring.

Countries are going to have to be prepared to take strong measures and hope the results go our way.

That's all we can do.

There is the potential however that flu season will not impact as suggested. I know plan for the worst and hope for the best but the use of masks, distance, increased hygiene and reduced travel should all contribute to a vastly reduced flu season if done correctly.

That would be the hope at least when thinking about flu logically as its not a normal winter on the horizon

FintanMcluskey · 11-10-2020 12:08AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Wonder what do the Germans know that the government here doesn't?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/saturday-read-can-we-save-lives-and-livelihoods-in-the-fight-against-covid-39603010.html

Communication and transparency will be critical for buy in.

Unfortunately, not something NPHET are renowned for.

majcos · 11-10-2020 12:08AM

Eod100 wrote: »

Any restrictions have been 3 weeks at least. Yet 3 weren't enough for Kildare or Dublin. Or Donegal. Would think it would need to be at least 3. Maybe that's only thing that will differentiate it from NPHET's 4 week recommendation

Donegal numbers are not really a useful measure of whether level 3 is working or not. Too much of a spill over from Derry. Unless same restrictions applied in Northern Ireland, it is hard to judge effects of restrictions in border counties.

speckle · 11-10-2020 12:09AM

For those who think shutting diwn the economy will help save the vunerable. They will be the worse and the first hit again with another recession/depression. Already underfunded and now with so much money dissappearing because of covid.
The below does nit just effect families in kerry as they have bases in other parts of Ireland too.

https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/the-kerryman-south-kerry-edition/20201007/281638192665075

And many other disablility services are in the same position.
The HSE are the very people who stopped funding in the pasr year or so the kerry network for people with disabilities and the womens resource center amongst others elsewhere.

Makes my blood boil.

Eod100 · 11-10-2020 12:10AM

majcos wrote: »

Donegal numbers are not really a useful measure of whether level 3 is working or not. Too much of a spill over from Derry. Unless same restrictions applied in Northern Ireland, it is hard to judge effects of restrictions in border counties.

Yeah true. It was more to the point that 3 weeks is not necessarily a guarantee. In other counties it hasn't been enough. Will have to wait and see.

Goldengirl · 11-10-2020 12:12AM

Akabusi wrote: »

The randomness to who displays symptoms is a real head scratcher. Is it anything to do with blood type? That was mentioned early but haven't heard anything on it since.

It would have more to do with viral load and an individuals autoimmune response.
The stronger the viral load and one's reaction to it , triggering an inflammatory response throughout the body involving bradykinin , affecting many organs, and some people can fight this off, others can't.
As to why some don't present any symptoms at all, I don't know .

testtech05 · 11-10-2020 12:12AM

US2 wrote: »

The average ages of death From heart attack is 56 I think ?

The poster stated that the 51 year old died soley from covid so it's cleared up. Obesity isn't counted as an underlying condition, it should be. There's no healthy people getting sick from this nevermind dien.

Average age of covid deaths - 88

Life expectancy - 82

They got 6 bonus years .

Sorry just 1 other point on this. When I said he was a very fit gentleman I meant he was into his running/cycling etc. Not even a little bit overweight not to mention obese....

While I agree obesity could well be a risk factor, as can be the case with a lot of conditions/diseases, it is just untrue to say "no healthy people are getting sick from this never mind dieing"

Tell that to my colleagues wife and family!!

Kermit.de.frog · 11-10-2020 12:13AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

There is the potential however that flu season will not impact as suggested. I know plan for the worst and hope for the best but the use of masks, distance, increased hygiene and reduced travel should all contributed to a vastly reduced flu season if done correctly.

That would be the hope at least when thinking about flu logically as its not a normal winter on the horizon

Possibly.

I'd be more concerned about patients in the system and vomiting bugs, flu etc...

There is another factor as well - what if we were to have a 2010 type winter...we would be in an incredibly serious situation if we had such disruption.

Luckily the latter is not a probability, it's just a risk. The former is certain in the system.

Distancing will help with flu clearly outside but flu will still be a significant challenge.

The way I see it we have to do our best to get through a few dark months to a much brighter outlook in spring hopefully with some sort of vaccine/enhanced treatment ready.

alentejo · 11-10-2020 12:15AM

At this stage, I wish they would just announce the full lock down. Not that i want it or agree with it, just cant stand the media and constant "lock down now brigade". This is very difficult on mental health

Goldengirl · 11-10-2020 12:17AM

majcos wrote: »

Makes it worse as now they may be fighting two illnesses so risk of succumbing to Covid or to their admitting illness is even higher.

If asymptomatic from Covid and at point of recovery from other illness, would be discharged home to self isolate if test positive unless home is a nursing home or residential unit and then would need to be kept in hospital to protect other residents in nursing home.

Risk of death from general surgery , all things being equal, if contract Covid during or post operatively , goes up from roughly 5% to20% risk, due to increased risk of clots, heart attacks and pneumonia .

Away With The Fairies · 11-10-2020 12:19AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

There is the potential however that flu season will not impact as suggested. I know plan for the worst and hope for the best but the use of masks, distance, increased hygiene and reduced travel should all contribute to a vastly reduced flu season if done correctly.

That would be the hope at least when thinking about flu logically as its not a normal winter on the horizon

With masks, distancing and hygiene, covid cases shouldn't be rising? But they are.

Goldengirl · 11-10-2020 12:22AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Wonder what do the Germans know that the government here doesn't?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/saturday-read-can-we-save-lives-and-livelihoods-in-the-fight-against-covid-39603010.html

Well, reading that they know that pubs and off licences are big drivers of spread , Plumb !
Say that here and all be shouting back , it's the house parties or the schools

All of the above , so what to do ?

Akabusi · 11-10-2020 12:22AM

Problem is masks are not being worn correctly in a lot of cases. They should also ban them stupid visors. I'd like to see some ads on TV showing the correct way to wear a mask.

Away With The Fairies · 11-10-2020 12:24AM

alentejo wrote: »

At this stage, I wish they would just announce the full lock down. Not that i want it or agree with it, just cant stand the media and constant "lock down now brigade". This is very difficult on mental health

I don't want to see the economy go to sh!t but seriously what options are there? There's no ICU beds in Cork and a few more hospitals. Does anyone not find that worrying?

Deeper Blue · 11-10-2020 12:26AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

My brother lives in southern Germany with his wife. They, nor anyone they know in the city, have been infected.

Clusters are dealt with very simply - the establishment/type of venue is named, people are told to cop on.
On the spot fine if you're not wearing a mask (albeit they have the Ordnungsamp (Order Police) to enforce their rules) in a shop/on a busy street.
The city of almost 300,000 people has about 10 cases per day, max.
They'll never, ever be in lockdown again.

This is what they should be doing here imo. Name and shame

growleaves · 11-10-2020 12:26AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Well, reading that they know that pubs and off licences are big drivers of spread , Plumb !
Say that here and all be shouting back , it's the house parties or the schools
All of the above , so what to do ?

Why not turn it into a Christmas game. Write down all the coincident factors on separate bits of paper and put them in a hat. Then we each pick one out of the hat. You read your slip of paper then when its your turn have to shout that the one you picked out "Can't be a coincidence!"

If someone asks for scientific proof they are disqualified from the game.

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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