Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

hometruths · 10-10-2020 08:19PM

Hubertj wrote: »

Sounds very positive. In our office, we are all wfh until new year. Many are very happy with it. But we have a lot of single non nationals working for us and they do feel socially isolated. Going to the office and sport and Sofia events were pretty much their only outlets. HR is working on helping them (developing a buddy system) in parallel to what sort of wfh / wfo mix there will be.
I really struggle wfh as much prefer face to face interaction.

HR doing their bit as obviously they have an obligation to existing employees. But I suspect in future the ability to happily and effectively WFH will become a prized quality by many employers.

OwlsZat · 10-10-2020 08:23PM

Hubertj wrote: »

Just like your post about Donaghmede then. Good lad.

That's the best dredging effort you could muster? Engage your brain before you start dictating who's stupid or not. The joke is on you.

smellyoldboot · 10-10-2020 08:24PM

From what I can see in my own workplace, most would be happy to WFH permanently. The only ones who "need" the office are frankly not really competent/can't be left alone to complete tasks. I think, apart from effects on property, there will be a certain amount of sorting wheat from chaff involved with this move to long term remote working and a lot of people who were in relatively stable employment but skating by based on being in an office could also be adding to the Dole queues shortly as companies streamline. Just another factor for the mix.

Hubertj · 10-10-2020 08:29PM

OwlsZat wrote: »

That's the best dredging effort you could muster? Engage your brain before you start dictating who's stupid or not. The joke is on you.

I made a spelling mistake. I apologise, I’m very sorry. You made a sweeping generalisation about a part of Dublin. That is stupid and shows a real lack of class. Please continue with the grammar policing though.
Do you have any comment or make on the general discussion regarding commercial real estate?

Hubertj · 10-10-2020 08:35PM

schmittel wrote: »

HR doing their bit as obviously they have an obligation to existing employees. But I suspect in future the ability to happily and effectively WFH will become a prized quality by many employers.

Yes agreed. It’s more that non nationals, especially those new to ireland, don’t have family and social supports in place in Ireland. Guy on my team landed in Ireland from turkey at the end of February. I spent 2 weeks with him in the office. Then lockdown. Been very tough on him. I meet him for coffee a couple times per week. Apart form that all he has is BlueJeans, Zoom etc. Tough way to live.

awec · 10-10-2020 08:53PM

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Sometimes in life people don't produce science backed studies when engaging in small talk about what is going on in their lives.

If an individual tells me they are going through hard times, lost their jobs, their industry or friends industry is in decline etc. I don't stop them mid sentence and ask for a controlled study or legitimate source of evidence.

Some people need to get out more.

Sometimes in life people invent things in their head too, and then post them on the internet trying to convince others that these imaginary things really happened.

There has been a LOT of that on this forum ever since covid arrived.

Gradius · 10-10-2020 09:00PM

A feather-soft landing for the economy in store, no doubt.

jill_valentine · 10-10-2020 09:04PM

schmittel wrote: »

thanks, very interesting to hear from someone so involved with the transition. What industry is this in?

No problem. It's sort of mad to think about what a huge pie in the sky thing it was to sell the idea of one staff member WFHing, for one day of the week, only two years ago...compared to March this year when we were nearly literally throwing laptops at people and telling them to run out the door like Ted getting the priests out of the lingerie section...

I'm in consumer banking and finance. At least two floors of my ten story building are entirely empty most days. If we didn't have to handle physical documents (ie old signed contracts, physical correspondence etc) it would be most floors. There are about ten people on a floor at once at most.

If we didn't have to social distance, you could get the entire standing population of the building onto one floor comfortably. Mad to think about.

VegggieMonster · 10-10-2020 10:24PM

schmittel wrote: »

Do you have an idea what the feeling is amongst your colleagues and friends? i.e are you an outlier or is this widely viewed as an attractive option?

I know few people from senior management who have changed their perspective on the whole wfh idea as they have seen that staff deliver, get more work life balance etc. A lot of people say they would prefer wfm few days a week. A lot of people own their places already but for those who don't it's a no brainer (idea of moving further out) to get a better value.

10-10-2020 10:29PM

Both my brothers have been working from home since March.
One has just bought a house in North county Dublin, he would never have dreamed of it if he was still commuting to town every day.
The other is thinking of going very rural, West of Ireland, his girlfriend is also WFH. They could never buy anything decent in Dublin, now they are thinking of a detached house with land!

awec · 10-10-2020 10:31PM

VegggieMonster wrote: »

I know few people from senior management who have changed their perspective on the whole wfh idea as they have seen that staff deliver, get more work life balance etc. A lot of people say they would prefer wfm few days a week. A lot of people own their places already but for those who don't it's a no brainer (idea of moving further out) to get a better value.

In what way is it a no brainer?

Timing belt · 10-10-2020 10:35PM

awec wrote: »

In what way is it a no brainer?

I can see it as a no brainier to move out of Dublin with a Dublin wage. Gives you massive buying power but wonder has it been agreed with employer that wfh is permanent?

awec · 10-10-2020 10:35PM

Timing belt wrote: »

I can see it as a no brainier to move out of Dublin with a Dublin wage. Gives you massive buying power but wonder has it been agreed with employer that wfh is permanent?

How?

I mean, it's certainly an option for some, maybe even an option for many, but "no brainer" is obviously nonsense. It's something that needs to be carefully considered.

Timing belt · 10-10-2020 10:38PM

awec wrote: »

How?

I mean, it's certainly an option for some, but "no brainer" is obviously nonsense.

Why if you can move somewhere else and buy for a fraction of the cost even if you want city life you can move to cork Galway limerick or Waterford and be on a better salary than most

VegggieMonster · 10-10-2020 10:55PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

I'd say a great many people are making the same calculations.

I know I've already posted my personal take, but I happened to be involved in the Covid WFH rollout in my (pretty large old) company and it's hard to emphasise enough how much of this feels one-way.

We had been gradually introducing WFH for selected employees who could make a strong case for it, as a pilot, for a few days a week - now, almost overnight, it's done, for almost everyone bar a skeleton crew, for 5 days a week. It's not an experimenal little pilot any more, it's how we've been working as a company for six months, the psychological threshold for management is crossed.

More than that, the IT time and investment into making it possible - which was previously the big barrier - is already done, all the processes have already been changed to facilitate it, the offices themselves have even been physically rearranged with the expectation our onsite presence will stay this small or smaller. The laptops and headsets are paid for, the meeting rooms are repurposed. We own this building, but the external desks and parking spaces we rent in addition are sitting empty. From a staff point of view, the childminders and taxsaver tickets are cancelled, and people have gotten used to wearing what they want, sitting where they want, and eating from their own cookers at lunch.

It would be more disruptive to go back than to retain this way of working now it's here. And all the costs are already sunk - if it turns out the day to day costs are significantly cheaper, which they very surely are, what incentive is there to revert? WFH isn't the question now, it's how much WFO might come back some day, and for what reason.

You have summarised it perfectly! Also the cost of a desk and infrustructure in the office vs. Desk, laptop, chair at home works out very much in favor of wfh. All this plus Covid distancing rules which require staff rotation make a big case for WFH, perhaps not full time but definitely few days a week.

10-10-2020 11:01PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Why if you can move somewhere else and buy for a fraction of the cost even if you want city life you can move to cork Galway limerick or Waterford and be on a better salary than most

Yeah but then I'd be living in Limerick.

Timing belt · 10-10-2020 11:05PM

Kathryn Sweet Yawn wrote: »

Yeah but then I'd be living in Limerick.

And that would be worse than Dublin how ? Lol

Danzy · 10-10-2020 11:22PM

Kathryn Sweet Yawn wrote: »

Yeah but then I'd be living in Limerick.

Limerick county is one of the richer parts of the country.

Very high standard of living there.

Yet cheap at the same time.

Not from limerick

VegggieMonster · 10-10-2020 11:22PM

awec wrote: »

In what way is it a no brainer?

Appreciate the 'no brainer' can be subjective but having flexibility of wfh few days a week makes people consider places they did not before due to distance. Yes it takes a lot of planning and option b or c but the more companies embrace the wfh the more people will move to places where they can save 100/150k on mortgage. That's how I see it.

Timing belt · 10-10-2020 11:31PM

VegggieMonster wrote: »

Appreciate the 'no brainer' can be subjective but having flexibility of wfh few days a week makes people consider places they did not before due to distance. Yes it takes a lot of planning and option b or c but the more companies embrace the wfh the more people will move to places where they can save 100/150k on mortgage. That's how I see it.

If it is WFH on a permanent basis then a lot of people will leave as they have ties outside Dublin. Think about all the people that moved to Dublin for work it will be in reverse.

If it is WFH 2 days a week then you will see some people move to commuter belt or further a field and opt for Airbnb for days in Dublin.

awec · 11-10-2020 12:16AM

I think if anything the commuter belt will benefit from this. It actually becomes more, rather than less attractive.

1. You don't actually have to commute every day
2. When you do have to commute, you are still within a reasonable commuting distance
3. If the WFH thing ever stops, or you decide you need to go to the office more regularly you are still within commuting distance.
4. If you change jobs where there is no WFH option in your next job, you don't need to move house

A lot of commuter towns are seen as a bit soulless and drab as everyone leaves in the morning and doesn't come back til evening, but if people do start WFH then you could see more of a community develop in these towns with more local business such as cafes, lunch spots etc.

jill_valentine · 11-10-2020 12:33AM

awec wrote: »

I think if anything the commuter belt will benefit from this. It actually becomes more, rather than less attractive.

1. You don't actually have to commute every day
2. When you do have to commute, you are still within a reasonable commuting distance
3. If the WFH thing ever stops, or you decide you need to go to the office more regularly you are still within commuting distance.
4. If you change jobs where there is no WFH option in your next job, you don't need to move house

A lot of commuter towns are seen as a bit soulless and drab as everyone leaves in the morning and doesn't come back til evening, but if people do start WFH then you could see more of a community develop in these towns with more local business such as cafes, lunch spots etc.

The options for a lot of people though are a) rent inside the established commuter belt, which is already the commuter belt for a reason and priced accordingly, or b) buy outside, in an area traditionally considered impractical for commuting, because WFH has opened those areas up. So it's not really a question of where to buy a house, but whether to buy far out or not at all.

For a lot of folks in my generation the only realistic option of affording a home requires a 30 year mortgage. I'm 35, I'm pretty much out of time, if I don't get a property - any property - under my belt now, that's it, it's off the table and I'm looking down the barrel of paying somebody else's mortgage instead of my own for the rest of my career.

The probability of WFH being a standard feature from now on is definitely enough to sway decisions for sure - even if something changes dramatically in the next few years against WFH, at least you'd have spent the intervening time building up some value you can make use of then rather than throwing away any more rent.

Timing belt · 11-10-2020 12:35AM

awec wrote: »

I think if anything the commuter belt will benefit from this. It actually becomes more, rather than less attractive.

1. You don't actually have to commute every day
2. When you do have to commute, you are still within a reasonable commuting distance
3. If the WFH thing ever stops, or you decide you need to go to the office more regularly you are still within commuting distance.
4. If you change jobs where there is no WFH option in your next job, you don't need to move house

A lot of commuter towns are seen as a bit soulless and drab as everyone leaves in the morning and doesn't come back til evening, but if people do start WFH then you could see more of a community develop in these towns with more local business such as cafes, lunch spots etc.

I agree with that.....my point earlier was that if wfh 100% of the time was the norm then people would leave Dublin in big numbers. if you were not from Dublin and did not have commitments in dublin. E.g. school etc then it is a no brainier. Even if it was to move to be near family to help with childcare. The saving from that alone would make such a difference and give people much more options and disposable income.

But as I said in previous posts I think it will be WFH 2 days a week. If it is any more than that then large no’s will leave Dublin.

no.8 · 11-10-2020 01:16AM

smellyoldboot wrote:

From what I can see in my own workplace, most would be happy to WFH permanently. The only ones who "need" the office are frankly not really competent/can't be left alone to complete tasks. I think, apart from effects on property, there will be a certain amount of sorting wheat from chaff involved with this move to long term remote working and a lot of people who were in relatively stable employment but skating by based on being in an office could also be adding to the Dole queues shortly as companies streamline. Just another factor for the mix.

I'm sure many are also happy to have done away with the distraction of office politics, duty their performance judged soley on output

riddles · 11-10-2020 01:16AM

I’d imagine jobs which can done 100% remote and staffed by foreign nationals in Ireland. Employees will be incentivised to return home where a local indexed linked salary is lower than here. Companies are looking at reduced facilities costs to become 100% remote where possible. Dublin rent has a challenge for some years now but I expect that bubble to pop.

Timing belt · 11-10-2020 01:26AM

riddles wrote: »

I’d imagine jobs which can done 100% remote and staffed by foreign nationals in Ireland. Employees will be incentivised to return home where a local indexed linked salary is lower than here. Companies are looking at reduced facilities costs to become 100% remote where possible. Dublin rent has a challenge for some years now but I expect that bubble to pop.

What you are talking about is outsourcing work to a different country which is very different to WFH.

Timing belt · 11-10-2020 02:51AM

Interesting article on eu banks WFH policies. I am surprised to see they are accepting 40-50% of time to be WFH a big move from 10-20% pre-covid

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-10-07/europe-s-banks-get-serious-about-work-from-home-after-pandemic

Cyrus · 11-10-2020 07:46AM

Timing belt wrote: »

I can see it as a no brainier to move out of Dublin with a Dublin wage. Gives you massive buying power but wonder has it been agreed with employer that wfh is permanent?

That arbitrage won’t exist forever .

Cyrus · 11-10-2020 07:50AM

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Exactly this, these "experts" rarely predict anything, they just conduct post mortem economic analysis.

The bellweather will always be the word on the street, i used to gauge this by people i know in the restaurant and hotel industry, if they told me business was slumping, a downturn usually followed.

Fast forward to 2020, 90% of every industry is in serious decline or hit a screeching halt but somehow some think Irish house prices will be immune to this, "this time it's different" etc, lol. Complete deniers will be in for some shock when reality hits.

I'm actually convinced most people are not that ignorant and those claiming everything will be fine and prices won't fall off a cliff have vested interests and are just trying to push an agenda (as could be said for those saying prices will crash). From a neutral standpoint the writing is on the wall for this dysfunctional market, it's long been due a correction.

There is one poster who has a clear agenda alright and is pushing it at every turn , feigning innocence , twisting articles to support their agenda , reposting them ad nauseam , so if there is an agenda in here that appears to be it.

Anyone who is posting facts and opinions based on those facts and isn’t predicting a massive recession because because remember house prices in 2012 are all multi unit landlords hoping to sway the market on a bulletin board it seems.

hometruths · 11-10-2020 08:14AM

awec wrote: »

I think if anything the commuter belt will benefit from this. It actually becomes more, rather than less attractive.

1. You don't actually have to commute every day
2. When you do have to commute, you are still within a reasonable commuting distance
3. If the WFH thing ever stops, or you decide you need to go to the office more regularly you are still within commuting distance.
4. If you change jobs where there is no WFH option in your next job, you don't need to move house

A lot of commuter towns are seen as a bit soulless and drab as everyone leaves in the morning and doesn't come back til evening, but if people do start WFH then you could see more of a community develop in these towns with more local business such as cafes, lunch spots etc.

Yes, the commuter belt will become much bigger.

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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