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Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,336 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    US2 wrote: »
    Do you know what exponentially means or do you just use that word cos you heard someone say it ? ICU numbers are not rising 'exponentially'

    I can't believe we have to do this every week but....

    Go on explain what you think it means.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    I think it's worth mentioning with regards to ICU - mechanical ventilation is ridiculously traumatic for the body and for the mind. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of issues are caused by that, to be honest.

    I thought they were put into a coma to be ventilated? And without it many would die. It is a miracle.


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Boggles wrote: »
    Sorry what does the numbers on the left signify?

    Why doesn't Donegal get a line?

    Its the rate of change in the 14 day incidence rate relative to 7 days earlier. Originally I was looking at doing a chart measuring the rate of change in the 7 day rolling average. Adding Donegal its not a pretty picture, though would imagine Derry is even worse and is getting back in line with the national picture

    528855.JPG


  • Site Banned Posts: 2,225 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Blondini wrote: »
    That backlog could make for a real shocker of a number soon..

    With more testing being done and a rapidly rising positivity rate, we're in for a shocking number soon even without the backlog.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,892 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    With a backlog of potentially nearly 500 from the last two days, I wouldn't be as optimistic that Dublin has actually dropped under 1

    Its a 7 day average, so any backlog will be smoothed out, but yes it could cause it back over 1. But we don't tend to have backlogs every day either.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,145 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    Boggles wrote: »
    Full Lockdown is schools and non covid health care shut down.

    The 2 core priorities identified by government.

    The recommendations were based on keeping them open.

    1 million students attending school as normal however aspirational is not full lockdown.

    Your memory isn't that short is it?

    Do you think we can flatten the curve with 1 million students on the move and hospitals open for all procedures in your opinion.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Its the rate of change in the 14 day incidence rate relative to 7 days earlier. Originally I was looking at doing a chart measuring the rate of change in the 7 day rolling average. Adding Donegal its not a pretty picture, though would imagine Derry is even worse and is getting back in line with the national picture

    528855.JPG

    Isn't a 14 day average a lagging indicator? Particularly given it's a pandemic with doubling times.

    528858.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,336 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    niallo27 wrote: »
    Do you think we can flatten the curve with 1 million students on the move and hospitals open for all procedures in your opinion.

    No. I think we are píssing against an electric fence.

    The weak link is the HSE it always has been.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,336 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Its the rate of change in the 14 day incidence rate relative to 7 days earlier. Originally I was looking at doing a chart measuring the rate of change in the 7 day rolling average. Adding Donegal its not a pretty picture, though would imagine Derry is even worse and is getting back in line with the national picture

    528855.JPG

    Both Dublin and Donegal were on a pretty rapid decline before measures came in and had a chance to kick in.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,145 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    Boggles wrote: »
    I can't believe we have to do this every week but....

    Go on explain what you think it means.

    As a function of time I do not believe its rising exponentially yet in fairness.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Littleredcar


    niallo27 wrote: »
    Ah cmon let's not pretend plenty of teachers and other civil servants had it handy for a good 6 months. My own sister is admin in the hse and she will be the first to say she did **** all the last 6 months.

    Probably more due to laziness


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,145 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    Probably more due to laziness

    Harsh on teachers but if that's your opinion.


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Isn't a 14 day average a lagging indicator? Particularly given it's a pandemic with doubling times.

    528858.jpg

    It is a lagging indicator, however is robust against day to day fluctuations for looking at an underlying trend. The purpose of the chart originally was to look at the effect of L3 for Dublin, so was appropriate. Without access to the calculations and input data on R0, I also think it is a reasonable approximation of the current reproduction rate, putting the national number currently at 1.33


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 671 ✭✭✭Will Yam


    Boggles wrote: »
    Both Dublin and Donegal were on a pretty rapid decline before measures came in and had a chance to kick in.

    That’s where i have the difficulty with NPHET last weekend. WHy push Dublin from level 3 to level 5 if things are stabilising (and have dropped since)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,336 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    niallo27 wrote: »
    As a function of time I do not believe its rising exponentially yet in fairness.

    Nolan published the chart

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1314272613116653568

    If anything he needs to tweak it to a slighter higher growth rate.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,136 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    Jackman25 wrote: »
    Boggles incoming to call him a spoofer and a loon.

    You’ve got a WHO dude, being interviewed who is worried about the economic impact of lockdown HERE on poorer countries. Odd, creepy.

    I don’t remember the WHO being overtly concerned about the recession here in the ‘80’s.

    I’m not willing to sacrifice the health and wellbeing of people HERE because people in the Congo , Senegal or wherever are in the shît and haven’t been able to sort themselves out.

    They are responsible for their own wellbeing and welfare. As are we, here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 671 ✭✭✭Will Yam


    With a backlog of potentially nearly 500 from the last two days, I wouldn't be as optimistic that Dublin has actually dropped under 1

    The 7 day rolling average yesterday was 142. 7 days ago it was 192. It has fallen consistently (with one minor blip) every day since then.

    I’m not sure at what point the R no falls below 1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,969 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Hospitals gone up to 194 despite net admissions of -3. Wouldn’t be surprised to see more cases in Cavan and Beaumont where there appears to be outbreaks.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,634 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    It is a lagging indicator, however is robust against day to day fluctuations for looking at an underlying trend. The purpose of the chart originally was to look at the effect of L3 for Dublin, so was appropriate. Without access to the calculations and input data on R0, I also think it is a reasonable approximation of the current reproduction rate, putting the national number currently at 1.33

    Spot on. There is no way of looking at the Dublin data which says that Dublin is not stable or improving.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,145 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    Boggles wrote: »
    Nolan published the chart

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1314272613116653568

    If anything he needs to tweak it to a slighter higher growth rate.

    The original post was just about ICU numbers though.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,634 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Hospitals gone up to 194 despite net admissions of -3. Wouldn’t be surprised to see more cases in Cavan and Beaumont where there appears to be outbreaks.

    Yes. It was disengengenous of NPHET to cite a number of 32 hospital admissions yesterday. Half of these were people already in hospital, who then caught Covid in hospital.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,336 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    niallo27 wrote: »
    The original post was just about ICU numbers though.

    Yes, he has a graph for ICU as well.

    I make it either 3 or 4 didn't get discharged from ICU in the last 24 hours, but the numbers didn't drop.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    niallo27 wrote: »
    As a function of time I do not believe its rising exponentially yet in fairness.

    What do you think exponential is?

    source.gif


    528863.png

    6034073


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Littleredcar


    niallo27 wrote: »
    Harsh on teachers but if that's your opinion.

    I was not commenting on teachers I was commenting on the poster who said his sister said that she did Feck all work for 6 months


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,336 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Yes. It was disengengenous of NPHET to cite a number of 32 hospital admissions yesterday. Half of these were people already in hospital, who then caught Covid in hospital.

    How do you know that?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,127 ✭✭✭PMBC


    I think the problems are well understood. Its the actions, of taking on the vested interests, that are not happening.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,524 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    polesheep wrote: »
    How dare you imprison me in my own home! Do you honestly believe it's ok to lock me and others up, depriving us of a portion of our day, of our life, in order to extend yours? Are you royalty? Have I woken up in an Ireland where there is some sort of caste system making one life more valuable than another? We are all given a certain number of days on this planet and I will not sacrifice any of mine to extend yours.

    I wear a mask, wash my hands, social distance and willingly go without things that are important to me to help protect the life of others, but I will not give up precious time from my life to help you live to be 95.

    The selfishness on both sides of the divide in this pandemic is breathtaking. Thankfully, in real life the vast majority of people are not so extreme.

    OK, now I have heard all I need from you to know that you are the problem, as you seem to think you can carry on as if nothing is happening around you, and you refuse to accept and acknowledge that life has massively changed for a short period of time for all of us as a direct result of the arrival of a new pandemic called Covid 19.

    So be it, and unfortunately, there are too many other people like you that are denying that there has to be massive change for a short period of our lives.

    Just to clarify things.

    IF IT HAPPENS, CURFEW IS NOT ABOUT ME LIVING TO 95, IT'S ABOUT ALL OF US DOING EVERYTHING WE CAN TO PREVENTING COVID KILLING A LARGER NUMBER OF PEOPLE OF ALL AGES AS A RESULT OF THE HEALTH SERVICE BEING OVERWHELMED AND BEING UNABLE TO ADEQUATELY TREAT BOTH COVID AND NON COVID PATIENTS AS A RESULT OF A SHORTAGE OF BEDS AND A SHORTAGE OF STAFF WELL ENOUGH TO TREAT THOSE PATIENTS.

    I too don't like the things we have to do to stay safe, I don't want to be spending money on masks, sanitiser, gloves etc.

    I like even less that I've not been able to see some of my family for over 9 months.

    I don't like that we can't give our grand children the hugs and friendship and attention that they are used to and are wanting to give us.

    I don't like that we were unable to attend a wedding of a very close friend because of the limits on numbers.

    I don't like that we can't attend things like music concerts.

    I don't like that we can't have a meal out with a few friends, maybe to celebrate a special occasion.

    I don't like that I can't have a relaxing drink in a local pub with a few friends after an event that we've all been part of.

    I don't like that a huge number of events we were supposed to be part of this year have been cancelled and may not now ever happen.

    I don't like that I have to be very careful about what I touch when I am out of the house, as I have no way of knowing who else has been touching the same thing.

    I don't like that Covid is revealing just how fractured society has become, and how brutal the effects of Covid have already been on some groups in our supposedly caring society.

    I don't like that there are too many ignorant slobs that dump their masks and other protections on the ground or in the supermarket trolly after they've been used.

    There are plenty of other things I could add to the list above, but given what I'm hearing about the way Covid is spreading at the moment, wether I like it or not is irrelevant.

    As a caring society, which most of us were the last time I checked, we ALL have to do a hell of a lot more to prevent Covid killing signifcantly more OF ALL AGES than it has so far, and to help reduce the workload on hospitals that will struggle to deal with their normal work load if overloaded by covid.

    And yes, I am repeating myself, in the forlorn hope that it might actually get through to you and others that seem to be unable to accept that "normal" can't happen for quite some time to come.

    I also don't like the longer term financial and mental health implications of what has been happening, and what's coming yet before things can start returning to something approaching a normal life.

    Curfew is a better alternative to closing even more of the economy down, we need to keep as much of the economy going as possible, to avoid even bigger problems for a larger number of people.

    You are not "being imprisoned", and certainly not by me, you are possibly going to be expected to stay at home for 8 hours a day, and for most of those hours, if you are anything like normal, you will be asleep anyway.

    If it happens, it will because people who DO have a better understanding of how to limit the damage that Covid is doing have decided that they have no choice left if they want to limit the problems that Covid is causing.

    Curfew is nothing new, it has been used in (among other places) Melbourne, and they are now at last seeing the result of the hard actions they have taken.

    And in closing, given your recent hostility towards me in multiple posts from you, I will be adding you to my ignore list in a few moments, your verbal diarrhoea of posts that are almost exclusively in the Covid section over the last few months have said nothing that I want to hear, and I have neither the time or interest to read the all of the massive volume of posts that are arriving in this thread.

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,634 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Boggles wrote: »
    How do you know that?

    It's in the data, take a look at the dashboard which shows daily admission numbers.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,246 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Boggles wrote: »
    Both Dublin and Donegal were on a pretty rapid decline before measures came in and had a chance to kick in.

    Do you think there was no need for level 3 restrictions so?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 42,971 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    niallo27 wrote:
    As a function of time I do not believe its rising exponentially yet in fairness.

    This is a nothing statement. It makes no sense.


This discussion has been closed.
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