Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

bennyl10 · 09-10-2020 02:35PM

is_that_so wrote: »

If you're landed in it for an hour plus each way you'll think it is.

Not in the slightest

A road check point is as far from ‘heavy enforcement’ as you’ll ever see, to even attempt to paint it as such is insane

Christ people will really hit the roof if we get actual enforcement laws

This is a bit of an inconvenience and leave early you’ll avoid the worse of it

Widdensushi · 09-10-2020 02:35PM

jopax wrote: »

Is there any idea of what kind of numbers we will see today?

We probably have cases left since yesterday, given more tests and if they clear the backlog 900 to 1000 will be the number some day in the next week

caveat emptor · 09-10-2020 02:43PM

Andrewf20 wrote: »

This has the markings of a casedemic with questions of the validity of PCR testing picking out old COVID fragments but not actually active viruses. Deaths still relatively low compared to Spring and slowly rising now, probably like any previous year as we head through the fall.

Respiratory deaths in NI 2010 - 2016 as a comparison: 1886,1923,2023,2124,2004,2236,1973

https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Deaths_Cause_LGD2014_0814.xlsx

As of Oct 2nd, 2020: 3646 (28.6%) deaths for respiratory death in NI including COVID:
https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Deaths%20Registered%20in%20NI%20-%20Week%2039%202020.pdf

"The number and proportion of respiratory deaths is higher in the year-to-date than the 5-year average (3,354; 28.5%)(Table 2)."

Not a huge difference if I have my maths right.

If you don't think its a statistically significant difference then you don't have your maths right.

Are you comparing the year to date with previous full years? i.e this year is 28% more than previous full years?

In other news. Hard to see why cases are rising in Scotland. Glad they got through the first qualifier.

I'd say a few of them caught more than the extra time and penalties.
https://twitter.com/ESPNFC/status/1314524094566670338?s=20

eigrod · 09-10-2020 02:47PM

857 positive swabs from 16,522 tests. 5.19% positivity rate

bb1234567 · 09-10-2020 02:48PM

Jesuss.. thread will be pandemonium this evening

Well it was always going to get worse before it got better I suppose, restrictions don't work immediately

Boggles · 09-10-2020 02:49PM

eigrod wrote: »

857 positive swabs from 16,522 tests. 5.19% positivity rate

Benimar · 09-10-2020 02:49PM

eigrod wrote: »

857 positive swabs from 16,522 tests. 5.19% positivity rate

Yeah, that ain’t good.

ACitizenErased · 09-10-2020 02:51PM

Record testing number today

MerlinSouthDub · 09-10-2020 02:52PM

Benimar wrote: »

Yeah, that ain’t good.

Fingers crossed Dublin is still doing ok.

eigrod · 09-10-2020 02:53PM

Looks like it could be anything between 700 and 1k cases this evening

Andrewf20 · 09-10-2020 02:54PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

If you don't think its a statistically significant difference then you don't have your maths right.

Are you comparing the year to date with previous full years? i.e this year is 28% more than previous full years?

In other news. Hard to see why cases are rising in Scotland. Glad they got through the first qualifier.

I'd say a few of them caught more than the extra time and penalties.
https://twitter.com/ESPNFC/status/1314524094566670338?s=20

Sorry - had to reread that link again. So it looks like 5 year average is 12 months vs 9 months. 3646/3 x 4 = approx 4861 deaths this year so far compared to the 5 year average before (3354).

Thankfully covid deaths have been low there since June.

caveat emptor · 09-10-2020 02:56PM

eigrod wrote: »

857 positive swabs from 16,522 tests. 5.19% positivity rate

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Record testing number today

ACitizenErased · 09-10-2020 02:57PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Fingers crossed Dublin is still doing ok.

Dublin and Donegal are the main case figures to watch right now. They are the only indication whether level 3 will work or not. We can then assume that in however many days we will see similar effects nationwide.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 09-10-2020 02:58PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Record testing number today

Tested 19k earlier in the week.

Hamsterchops · 09-10-2020 02:58PM

Northern England, massive Covid numbers..
Northern Ireland, massive Covid numbers.

Why?

MerlinSouthDub · 09-10-2020 02:59PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Dublin and Donegal are the main case figures to watch right now. They are the only indication whether level 3 will work or not. We can then assume that in however many days that we will see similar effects nationwide.

Donegal is going to have problems with Northern Ireland impact. I'm just going to watch Dublin - would love if Dublin was in the 100 to 150 range today, that would be great.

Benimar · 09-10-2020 02:59PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I was actually going to post that, despite 2 of the 3 figures being absolutely disastrous, someone would be along to focus on the testing numbers!

caveat emptor · 09-10-2020 02:59PM

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Sorry - had to reread that link again. So it looks like 5 year average is 12 months vs 9 months. 3646/3 x 4 = approx 4861 deaths this year compared to the 5 year average before (3354). A 31% increase in deaths this year.

Thankfully deaths have been low there since June.

Thanks. Yeah my concern with that is that our 9 months leaves out half of the total as there are far more respiratory deaths in OCT / NOV / DEC normally so it will be massively different.

I hope it stays low too but I wouldn't count on it.

stockshares · 09-10-2020 02:59PM

NI stats
https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1314559033551003652?s=19

Northern Ireland stats
(click on dashboard or stats page in link below)
https://www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/ni-summary-statistics/coronavirus-covid-19-statistics
132 in total in hospital with Covid.
116 of these cases are in general beds.
16 in Critical Care(ICU)

104 total Critical Care(ICU) beds
89 occupied
15 free
73 in ICU are other illness cases
16 in ICU are Covid cases
10 of the 27 Covid cases are on Ventilators

Republic of Ireland stats
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/coronavirus-daily-operations-updates.html
171 in total in hospital with Covid.
144 of these cases are in general beds.
27 in Critical Care(ICU)

280 total Critical Care(ICU) beds
244 occupied
36 free
217 in ICU are as a result of other Illnesses
27 in ICU are Covid cases
17 of the 27 Covid cases are on Ventilators

mirrorwall14 · 09-10-2020 02:59PM

I was officially designated very high risk by medmark yesterday and have to work from home. Looking at those numbers it is just as well.....

bennyl10 · 09-10-2020 03:00PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Fingers crossed Dublin is still doing ok.

Dublin hasn’t been doing okay

Yes the incident rate has dropped

But it’s still above the national average and not okay

With today figures and the 300 left from yesterday

Could be hitting 1000 soon

NIMAN · 09-10-2020 03:03PM

My local area a fortnight ago had a 5/100,000 figure.

Its now at 300+.

Roger_007 · 09-10-2020 03:03PM

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Northern England, massive Covid numbers..
Northern Ireland, massive Covid numbers.

Why?

It’s colder in the north. More people indoors with windows closed.

jammiedodgers · 09-10-2020 03:04PM

Wasn't there a potential backlog of approx. 200 yesterday too?

What Username Guidelines · 09-10-2020 03:04PM

eigrod wrote: »

857 positive swabs from 16,522 tests. 5.19% positivity rate

Stir in a bit of backlog and we could be talking >1,000.

Although given the 857 need to be validated as new vs old, and the number is rising quickly, it wouldn't surprise me to see a lower number and a bigger backlog building.

Gruffalux · 09-10-2020 03:06PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

It’s colder in the north. More people indoors with windows closed.

Widdensushi · 09-10-2020 03:07PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Tested 19k earlier in the week.

For 2 days maybe

mloc123 · 09-10-2020 03:13PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

NI cases today is the per capita equivalent of circa 3000 here. That's insanity.
The 17% positivity rate suggests they're missing a tonne of cases.

You could double, maybe even triple that number to get the real value of cases.

09-10-2020 03:13PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

It’s colder in the north. More people indoors with windows closed.

That’s their excuse my mother-in-law used to prevent her having to travel to Louth from Dublin

caveat emptor · 09-10-2020 03:13PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Stir in a bit of backlog and we could be talking >1,000.

Although given the 857 need to be validated as new vs old, and the number is rising quickly, it wouldn't surprise me to see a lower number and a bigger backlog building.

Is that backlog mainly to buy time for the government announcements. Leo saying look at hospitalisations as a metric etc when we clearly know there is a lag.

Is it just to prime the conversation that we have to have with ourselves?

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

Comments