Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

Benimar · 09-10-2020 02:01PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The decision on Monday gives them plenty of time to have a strategy for Level 5. Given the choice they'd rather stay put at this level hence the heavy handed enforcement. I reckon they will go to 4 if required but we need to be in a really awful place before they opt for Level 5.

What 'heavy handed enforcement'??

'Ah now Sir, we would prefer if you didn't do that, if you wouldn't mind'

weldoninhio · 09-10-2020 02:02PM

yawhat? wrote: »

Really? Have you a link where I can get more information on this statement?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/ryanair-loses-high-court-action-over-ireland-s-travel-advice-1.4370292

The full judgement is available, but i can't find it at the moment.

The airline had claimed the measures amounted to a legal restriction on travel in and out of the country. The State disputed those claims, arguing the measures are merely advisory and not binding in nature.

caveat emptor · 09-10-2020 02:02PM

is_that_so wrote: »

That's the so-called circuit breaker. Where it has been tried in Oz and NZ it has lasted a lot longer than promised. As the article points out this schools question hasn't even been talked about.

No circuit breaker does not mean that. A circuit breaker is shut everything down and open back up.

NZ and OZ gave strict border controls and quarantine. We have Michael O’Leary and empty hotels and flights. Worst of both worlds.

Andrewf20 · 09-10-2020 02:02PM

Varadkar was refering to Israel for their circuit break approach with Claire Byrne the other night. Its too early to say if it will make a difference apparently but looking at their death profile its completely different to ours.

Israel are a bit like the Czech republic in that they didn't really have a spike in Spring (highest death peak was only 13 deaths on April 15th with a population of 8.8 million) and like the Czech republic, their deaths are starting to rise alot now. Maybe they are facing their spike now while ours is behind us. Not sure why we would want to emulate Israels circuit break idea if this is the case.

E36Ross · 09-10-2020 02:03PM

They really really need to sort a long term plan that includes targets of increasing/decreasing numbers and publish it with regards to what they plan to do rather than someone hearing a rumour and running with it.

They also need to crack down on newspapers running with un confirmed stories.

This crap that came Sunday about the whole country is going to level 5, is now similarly being repeated that schools are closing for an even longer midterm.

Main article on here, https://m.independent.ie
BREAKING: Schools to have longer midterm.

Yet here says no decision made, https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1009/1170464-schools/

is_that_so · 09-10-2020 02:04PM

Benimar wrote: »

What 'heavy handed enforcement'??

'Ah now Sir, we would prefer if you didn't do that, if you wouldn't mind'

Garda overtime of €13m and traffic problems we haven't seen since the M50 had toll booths! It might even work!

is_that_so · 09-10-2020 02:05PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

No circuit breaker does not mean that. A circuit breaker is **** everything down and open back up.

NZ and OZ gave strict border controls and quarantine. We have Michael O’Leary and empty hotels and flights. Worst of both worlds.

Melbourne and Auckland did.

Benimar · 09-10-2020 02:05PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Garda overtime of €13m and traffic problems we haven't seen since the M50 had toll booths! It might even work!

It's hardly 'heavy handed enforcement' now is it!

caveat emptor · 09-10-2020 02:06PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Melbourne and Auckland did.

Great so we are going for a circuit break and introducing strict border controls and quarantine . You should have said. I’m all for the circuit breaker so. NZ and OZ look like they are getting on fine.

SleetAndSnow · 09-10-2020 02:06PM

1080 cases in NI today. Mental.

is_that_so · 09-10-2020 02:07PM

Benimar wrote: »

It's hardly 'heavy handed enforcement' now is it!

If you're landed in it for an hour plus each way you'll think it is.

ElTel · 09-10-2020 02:07PM

barneystinson wrote: »

Hope it's ok to ask this here, I haven't really been on this forum much...

Just read something about the false positive rate with the PCR test they're using (sent to me by someone who's very anti-mask, anti-lockdown etc, so I'm not sure of it's objectivity) - that the rate of false positives is at least 0.8% (possibly up to a couple of percent). So my first question is, is there a reliable source as to what the actual rate of false positives is?

Moving on, I see our positive rate from the 90k tests we did last week, is up around 4% (having increased from closer to 3% in recent weeks).

If the false positive rate is say 0.8%, does that mean that it's quite likely that 20% of the positive tests in the last week are false positives (0.8%/4%)? Or do people that test positive, get a second test, and the final number we see is after eliminating the majority of the false positives from the first batch of positives... I don't know anyone who has had it recently, to ask them...

There is a lot of confusion and loose talk about this.

Our serial testing of meat plants shows a positivity rate of 0.2% This puts an upper limit on the false positive rate of the PCR test.

The PCR test is extremely sensitive so can detect remnants of the virus in people that have recovered or people who didn't know they had it. The PCR test does not say anything about whether one is infectious (shedding virus) So some people loosely say that's a false positive.

Kieran Tierney recently tested positive on International duty for Scotland. Arsenal are not happy as he has antibodies from being infected previously.

yawhat? · 09-10-2020 02:07PM

weldoninhio wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/ryanair-loses-high-court-action-over-ireland-s-travel-advice-1.4370292

The full judgement is available, but i can't find it at the moment.

The airline had claimed the measures amounted to a legal restriction on travel in and out of the country. The State disputed those claims, arguing the measures are merely advisory and not binding in nature.

So they didn’t state what you claimed they stated. Making sh1t up and stating it as fact seems to be all the rage these days. You ought to be ashamed of yourself.

GooglePlus · 09-10-2020 02:09PM

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

1080 cases in NI today. Mental.

Not mental when you take the increased testing into account but concerning. I'd love to know what their true peak figure was earlier in the year.

Funsterdelux · 09-10-2020 02:11PM

E36Ross wrote: »

They really really need to sort a long term plan that includes targets of increasing/decreasing numbers and publish it with regards to what they plan to do rather than someone hearing a rumour and running with it.

They also need to crack down on newspapers running with un confirmed stories.

This crap that came Sunday about the whole country is going to level 5, is now similarly being repeated that schools are closing for an even longer midterm.

Main article on here, https://m.independent.ieThe mid-term break for schools is expected to be extended as part of plans to curb Covid-19.
BREAKING: Schools to have longer midterm.

Yet here says no decision made, https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1009/1170464-schools/

The indo didnt say it was a certainty

is_that_so · 09-10-2020 02:13PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

The indo didnt say it was a certainty

Oh they never do, just toss out a rumour as fact and put their hands up aghast at the suggestion it's bad journalism.

gmisk · 09-10-2020 02:14PM

1080 cases in northern ireland today....yikes!
I do worry a tad for my folks up there tbh but they are being careful as they can be.

AlphaDelta1 · 09-10-2020 02:14PM

I think the longer mid term is pure stupidity tbh. Halloween is an excuse for kids to get up to no good as is. All that would do is give them an extra week to go around in packs collecting bonfire wood and drinking cans in groups. If we want to take that approach do it now and cancel the Halloween mid term altogether.

is_that_so · 09-10-2020 02:16PM

gmisk wrote: »

1080 cases in northern ireland today....yikes!
I do worry a tad for my folks up there tbh but they are being careful as they can be.

Breaking 1000 was inevitable after 923 yesterday.

Andrewf20 · 09-10-2020 02:16PM

Blondini wrote: »

No he didn't when he was referring to ICU.

It was to give a general idea of what is considered a normal death rate in any winter as a reference to bare in mind when we think of the numbers.

And of course COVID is expected to be in the mix if ICU cases now. What I would like to know is overall ICU bed usage much higher when compared to previous years up to mid October?

Boggles · 09-10-2020 02:18PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Not mental when you take the increased testing into account but concerning. I'd love to know what their true peak figure was earlier in the year.

They are hoovering around 17% positivity rate.

It's not because of increased testing.

ACitizenErased · 09-10-2020 02:21PM

NI cases today is the per capita equivalent of circa 3000 here. That's insanity.
The 17% positivity rate suggests they're missing a tonne of cases.

TonyMaloney · 09-10-2020 02:23PM

Boggles wrote: »

They are hoovering around 17% positivity rate.

It's not because of increased testing.

According to WHO guidelines for epidemiologists, anything above 5% and you can consider the virus out of control.
We might breach that mark today.

Scotland were at 5% on the 19th of Sept.
One week later they recorded an 11.5%

A nice graph of it here:
https://spice-spotlight.scot/2020/10/08/coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland-latest-data/

Hopefully our set of restrictions will fare better than there's did and we won't see the same big jump.

blowitupref · 09-10-2020 02:26PM

Was said elsewhere that our daily testing capacity is 15,000. If true does that mean 880 tests came from the German labs?

ACitizenErased · 09-10-2020 02:28PM

blowitupref wrote: »

Was said elsewhere that our daily testing capacity is 15,000. If true does that mean 880 tests came from the German labs?

As far as I know there's 2000 tests per week from Germany.

Funsterdelux · 09-10-2020 02:28PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Oh they never do, just toss out a rumour as fact and put their hands up aghast at the suggestion it's bad journalism.

Shur whatever gets the most clicks

jopax · 09-10-2020 02:30PM

Is there any idea of what kind of numbers we will see today?

is_that_so · 09-10-2020 02:32PM

blowitupref wrote: »

Was said elsewhere that our daily testing capacity is 15,000. If true does that mean 880 tests came from the German labs?

Think the German labs are just used for serial testing when we need them. 15,000 no longer the limit. Reid said 19,500 were done yesterday.

TonyMaloney · 09-10-2020 02:32PM

jopax wrote: »

Is there any idea of what kind of numbers we will see today?

Not yet. Come back around 3pm (usually)

Andrewf20 · 09-10-2020 02:35PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

NI cases today is the per capita equivalent of circa 3000 here. That's insanity.
The 17% positivity rate suggests they're missing a tonne of cases.

This has the markings of a casedemic with questions of the validity of PCR testing picking out old COVID fragments but not actual active viruses. Deaths still relatively low compared to Spring and slowly rising now, probably like any previous year as we head through the fall.

Respiratory deaths in NI 2010 - 2016 as a comparison: 1886,1923,2023,2124,2004,2236,1973

https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Deaths_Cause_LGD2014_0814.xlsx

As of Oct 2nd, 2020: 3646 (28.6%) deaths for respiratory death in NI including COVID:
https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Deaths%20Registered%20in%20NI%20-%20Week%2039%202020.pdf

"The number and proportion of respiratory deaths is higher in the year-to-date than the 5-year average (3,354; 28.5%)(Table 2)."

Not a huge difference if I have my maths right.

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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